Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz , 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

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All of thing what is happening to Sandy was predicted but like Levi said early in the day..is happening more sooner than expected...All of the models are saying this will be a strong storm ..with winds of strong cat.1 hurricane and TS winds hundreds of miles away from the center

I don´t live in EE.UU but many of member of my family live in new york and new jersey, i´m wishing nothing happen, but all of the models regrettably are saying this would no be a good scenario
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Hey folks.... watching Sandy closely and preparing here in Central VA. Glad to see the euro shift back north, if it had stayed on its present course then I would be in deep doo doo. Oh well, I'm sticking with my guns and going with a delmarva landfall. Local weathermen around here are calling for 60 mph gusts and heavy rains. TS force winds and rains for 2 days. That can't be good.


Agreed, but I'm really not liking the hook back south. Even if NJ is where it goes in, that is going to bring a real nasty surprise to us. Guessing I'm about 130 miles north of you.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 122

Quoting vegegrower:
hi just a novice question, will sandy be drawn in to the warmer waters just of the coast and bounce along up it?
That might work with a weak and sheared system (i.e. a tropical depression) that essentially straddles the deepest convection that is over warm waters, but it's a rule that generally doesn't apply, especially to hybrid entities like this one.
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Hey folks.... watching Sandy closely and preparing here in Central VA. Glad to see the euro shift back north, if it had stayed on its present course then I would be in deep doo doo. Oh well, I'm sticking with my guns and going with a delmarva landfall. Local weathermen around here are calling for 60 mph gusts and heavy rains. TS force winds and rains for 2 days. That can't be good.
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hi just a novice question, will sandy be drawn in to the warmer waters just of the coast and bounce along up it?
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Quoting DrewE:
I don't think folks in PA should be worried, after all it's always sunny in Philadelphia.
I smiled.
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Quoting ncstorm:


once it goes extratropical, there wont be quadrants in the storm..
There will still be an influx of warm air on the right side due to the uniform southerly flow. Vertical shear will not change that.
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Quoting bappit:

People have mostly learned to get away from the surge or it would be the biggest killer by far. The fresh water flooding is not as predictable I think. Hard to know ahead of time where training rains will set up. I think people get over confident in their cars, too.


It could have been much worse on the storm surge had Katrina come ashore 50 miles west which would have impacted New Orleans with storm surge, then Pontchartrain. Or Ike 25 miles south which would have overtopped Galveston Island.

Interesting comment on the cars. I believe that someday a hurricane is going to catch a gridlocked traffic jam. It "could" have happened in Floyd

http://www.intercom.net/~terrypl/evacuation-Plann ing.html

By Terry Plowman

Almost 600 miles wide, and swirling with 130-mph winds and relentless rain, Floyd forced nearly three million people to join the largest evacuation in U.S. history. And it sent this sobering message to the coastal states: You had best take a look at your evacuation plans.

Although no deaths directly resulted, tens of thousands of evacuees suffered through near-gridlock as they tried to flee Hurricane Floyd. Trips that normally would have taken an hour or two took 16 hours or more.

In Florida, an estimated two million people left their homes, "causing an enormous strain on the carrying capacity of evacuation routes," according to a post-Floyd report that described the event as a "worst-case scenario."

Unprecedented traffic flowed northward, flooding into Georgia and the Carolinas, whose own citizens were trying to flee the impending storm. Floyd blew ashore near Cape Fear, North Carolina, with 110-mph winds, then dumped 15 inches of rain in 12 hours, causing post-evacuation flooding on a scale never before seen in the region. /article
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


we already have enough to deal with...


two or three high tide cycles, massive rain and sustained heavy winds with upslope wet snow over a foot, yep, that will be a bit more than our region can deal with. Funny, it was TS Agnes that did the most damage to our area back in the early seventies. Whatever Sandy's name ends up being, it will be one to be remembered and cursed for a long time. Turn east, dammit.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
Quoting pottery:

How you doing, Zoo?
Weather here has been incredibly hot and dry (95F) today. No rain for over 2 weeks, to talk about. Nothing on the horizon either.

Strange stuff going on this rainy season.


Good ho
Quoting pottery:

How you doing, Zoo?
Weather here has been incredibly hot and dry (95F) today. No rain for over 2 weeks, to talk about. Nothing on the horizon either.

Strange stuff going on this rainy season.

Doing well, how about yourself? We have had so much rain it will takeweeks just for the ground to dry. Every where we look the water levels arehigher than i ever remember.
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Quoting DrewE:
I don't think folks in PA should be worried, after all it's always sunny in Philadelphia.


LOVE that show!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
345. DrewE
I don't think folks in PA should be worried, after all it's always sunny in Philadelphia.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

My first thought is that the ambient airmass will be too cold, although given the shear, I don't think a couple can be ruled in the right quadrant of the storm where the affected areas will be in the warm southerly flow regime associated with the storm. Will probably be minimized further north as Sandy encounters the upper-level trough and its associated cold air advection.


once it goes extratropical, there wont be quadrants in the storm..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A dropsonde just got 67mph at the surface with 90mph not far from the surface.

They may very well leave it at hurricane intensity based on that.
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Quoting goalexgo:
I havent seen any discussion of the possibility of spin-up tornadoes from this system once it strikes. Any thoughts on this?
My first thought is that the ambient airmass will be too cold, although given the shear, I don't think a couple can be ruled in the right quadrant of the storm where the affected areas will be in the warm southerly flow regime associated with the storm. Will probably be minimized further north as Sandy encounters the upper-level trough and its associated cold air advection.
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At some point Sandy will become extratropical just like Noel of 2007
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Quoting ncstorm:


the SPC has nada in their outlooks..


we already have enough to deal with...
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Quoting Slamguitar:
[..] people don't understand hurricane forecasting and its potential errors enough to prepare for "dud after dud" [..]
Yup. The fact that people don't understand statistics, forecasting errors, modeling, or the simple fact that you can't predict nature 100% has recently been well illustrated with the L'Aquila earthquake manslaughter trial.

If it's a dud people will blame the scientists for wasting time/money. If it's stronger than predicted people will blame the scientists for not warning them. It's like they believe that models are crystal balls that can actually look into a hole in space time and give them their lotto scores.
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Quoting goalexgo:
I havent seen any discussion of the possibility of spin-up tornadoes from this system once it strikes. Any thoughts on this?


the SPC has nada in their outlooks..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
Thank you Angela!

WunderGirl12
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I havent seen any discussion of the possibility of spin-up tornadoes from this system once it strikes. Any thoughts on this?
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Quoting Civicane49:


It just hard for me to see Sandy making such a sharp turn towards the west...
I can't see her doing that. Yes turning NW could make more sense...maybe NW OR NNW towards NYC
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...POTENTIAL HISTORIC STORM FOR THE AREA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TAKE A
TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IT APPEARS THIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT OUR
REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STORM, POSSIBLY OF
HISTORIC PROPORTIONS.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER,
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE STORM THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN /POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10
INCHES/ WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE MAJOR TO EVEN RECORD FLOODING.
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. AS WATER IS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST, COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE AND THIS COULD BE TO MAJOR TO PERHAPS EVEN RECORD LEVELS
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE EXTENT OF THE
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LARGE AND RECORD SETTING STORM, WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH
EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AT
THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE RAIN AND
WIND LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL TIME
TO PREPARE.

SOME SUGGESTED PRE-STORM ACTIONS ARE:

1. FUEL UP YOUR VEHICLES.

2. IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR, BE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FUEL ON HAND.

3. TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES, MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE A SUPPLY OF FRESH BATTERIES AND A SUPPLY OF CANDLES OR
FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND.

4. BE SURE TO HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF FRESH WATER ON HAND FOR DRINKING
AND COOKING.

5. IF YOU STILL HAVE LAWN FURNITURE OUTSIDE, SECURE OR STORE IT
INDOORS. SECURE ANY OUTSIDE ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE IN
STRONG WINDS, INCLUDING HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.

6. CLEAN OUT ANY STORM DRAINS OR GUTTERS THAT MAY BE CLOGGED BY
LEAVES.

7. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA AND IF POSSIBLE, CONSIDER
MOVING ITEMS THAT MAY BECOME DAMAGED TO HIGHER GROUND.

8. IF YOU HAVE LIMITED MOBILITY OR KNOW OF SOMEONE WHO MAY BE
DISABLED, CONSIDER ARRANGING FOR TEMPORARY SHELTER IF THEY LIVE IN
AN AREA THAT MAY FLOOD OR COULD LOSE POWER.

9. IF YOU NEED TO EVACUATE, BE SURE TO CARE FOR YOUR PETS.

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
Velly intelestink.
:)

Actually a close to perfect example of an NWS advisory that tells it like it is, without hype, without saying anything that is not true. Helps the media disseminate correct advisory info. Helps John Q. Public understand the situation and make appropriate plans and preps.

Thanks for posting that, TA.
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Quoting zoomiami:



Agreed, too much going on for childish behavior

How you doing, Zoo?
Weather here has been incredibly hot and dry (95F) today. No rain for over 2 weeks, to talk about. Nothing on the horizon either.

Strange stuff going on this rainy season.
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Anyone have a report on what's going on on the NC coast this evening? Curious over here in the Queen City...... Thx!
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If anyone cares there's a typhoon in the West Pacific:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7833
Quoting CoopsWife:


Dang frontloader, Wab

Rain barrels from roof gutters with hookup hoses (if not sliding downhill....)? Besides experience, sounds like you may have some imagination going for you, too.
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------
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guys lets not forget about this little guy

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 26 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting pottery:

Leave it.....



Agreed, too much going on for childish behavior
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A dropsonde just got 67mph at the surface with 90mph not far from the surface.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7833

It sure has been an interesting 24 hours on the Florida east coast and right now I am still getting some tropical storm-force gusts in squalls, but soon the wind is going to turn offshore and that will be the end of the storm for me. We still have a couple of days to see just how this superstorm scenario is going to unfold, it should be interesting and I am confident by now that everyone is paying attention.

Saying the northeast or mid-atlantic needs a hurricane to keep everyone alert is ludicrous, like saying every parent needs to lose a child so they take better care of the others. There is enough suffering in the world already without wishing for any extra. I hope that the current forecast is a bust but if hope could change the future we would all be enjoying peace and prosperity right now, so better if everyone stays alert and faces the hard truth that is coming.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
After looking at data (from purely an amature point of view) ..Sandy is following the Gulf Stream at this time and as far as dry air is concerned she is taking in some ,but she is has plenty of moisture and she is cranking it out, it's just not over the conus yet and by all indications it will start to do so soon..IMO although not much, but sooner than predicted..
JMO.. :)
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Back from a long day of rearranging matters on Monday and Tuesday. Have some employees that need not to be out on those days in Maryland. I'm glad that the report from Jeff and Angela mentioned the sea temps, I posted this earlier, which is a link to current sea temps up our way. Cape May is 7 plus degrees higher than normal. There is just too much energy coming north and from the front to not take this storm very seriously. I'm glad the media has blow it up, it is going to be a dangerous few days.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
the blog was doing so good today..no one was arguing whatsoever..I knew it was too good to be true that we could go a whole day without arguments..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
" but people don't understand hurricane forecasting and its potential errors enough to prepare for "dud after dud".

-------

Yes, there is NOTHING pleasant about preparing for hurricanes. But it's way better to be prepared.
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...
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I have a lot of compassion. And I'm certainly not going to justify myself to a bunch of people I'll never even meet.

People get emotional during these storms, but that doesn't excuse being illogical. Think for just one moment: are my wishes really going to do anything to alter the situation? I'm sure you know the answer.

In hindsight, perhaps I could have toned it down a bit, but I'm also not one to sugarcoat things.

I learned a long time ago that you can't please everyone, and I'm not about to try. If no one likes me, they can kiss my ass.


Your right, you absolutely are on your earlier comments. People are indeed complacent, and in general don't care if the event isn't happening to them. Even if it is going to happen to them they might not use logic, look at Isaac..."oh it's just a cat 1, no need to leave for that" and then next thing they know their whole neighborhood is flooded and they are trapped.

There is a whole field of academia about this very topic known as Disaster Psychology, I believe Tulane and South Dakota State have graduate studies in this but I could be wrong.
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I am a weather nut in the Keys have been for ever. I prep for storms all year round food wise and then when a threat I get more water make block ice GET BOOZE.

Point is I don't think it matters where you are unless you have had a bad experience with a storm you are not going to pay attention and reckon it can't happen to you. And if it has you can't fathom it can happen again, only a few of us can On top of that who watches the news these days which doesn't inform you anyway so DOOM
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Quoting goalexgo:
Here in NJ....all that my ShopRite had left was 3 cans of lousy dogfood, some plastic spoons, and a seeded roll. I went with the roll.

Public is being scared to death.


Most likely there will be TONS of meals ready to eat (MRE's) rolling into the area even before the storm hits. Those got me thru Rita for a day until the grocery stores started to restock.
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Quoting Civicane49:
Sandy:

As guygee pointed out the circulation is still well defined and trying to wrap convection around it again. I think that ULL to its west has driven drier air into the system and shear from the approaching trough. Once it starts picking up speed again conditions should be favorable for some restrengthening.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
0z models are in. Two main changes: One is that overall agreement is better than it has been. The other is that the general trend this cycle vs. 12z and 18z was a bit of a northward shift as the NHC track now lies closer to the western edge of consensus:


I still have central NJ as my landfall area with 70-75mph winds.
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Quoting pottery:

Leave it.....
I will. Thanks.
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Sandy:

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I can see where Kori is coming from. If this "Perfect-er Storm" turns out to be a dud, then the mid-Atlantic and the NE will just be taken off guard by something even worse in the seasons to come.

I'm glad people are in a kind of "preparation frenzy", but people don't understand hurricane forecasting and its potential errors enough to prepare for "dud after dud".

Bottom line is, this has hit the media hard. I would rather not have anything happen to the poor souls on the Atlantic coast, but the hand has been dealt, and this is on everyone's mind in the areas to be impacted.

All we can hope for is for the folks affected to prepare their absolute best to minimize damage and loss of human life.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


If I wanted to troll, I could come up with a much more subtle approach than this.

Leave it.....
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

No, it's not. Relax.
Your right, the one I quoted in post 284 is, my mistake. I could say similar things about florida being complacent and such too. There are always going to be some that don't follow evac order, those that want to and can't afford to, and those that can afford to have the best built homes fully able to weather a big storm and survive for weeks without power etc... but why would you wish a once in recorded history (so it's being called), or a 100 year, or 50 year storm on people as a wakeup call. The east coast has had what have been considered 100 year storms a lot (Isabel, Nor'Ida, Irene, to name a few).

Sometimes it's not being complacent or unprepared, but an act of nature that was unprecedented. People don't all know how to act or react, some people don't have help or can't afford to move away... they stay in their vulnerable houses, some go up to the attic when the water fills the rest of the house, and many become victims of the situation, whether the made the choice because they were complacent or unable to control the situation.

Lack of compassion in such situation is actually not unexpected by me in this country any longer. And while I won't agree with my neighbors on politics, as with the last few storm and flooding events, I will offer my hand in assisting them and put my needs second.

Actually, I don't care if you have no compassion, but don't wish death, destruction, and hardship on people because they "weren't prepared enough" for your opinion.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.