Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz , 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

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Hello weathercurious25: just keep in post of what going on. Just make sure if you travel go go the safest way.im pretty sure your home will be ok. Far as the storm concern where your at, let see how it pans out, tune to your local news. Thanks
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Haven't seen much above 60 or 65 mph on SFMR yet.
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Quoting sigh:

Don't bother. It's certainly possible you could have a rogue object fly into a window, but it's extremely unlikely. In Boston, you shouldn't have winds any greater than what you'd get in a powerful Nor'easter.



Thanks for your vote. Polls still open!

What I'm mostly worried about are the trees and branches falling--not so much the crazy stuff that sometimes pummels my sister's house in FL.
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Someone know where is the archive of this map?:
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Quoting AussieStorm:
The Oz ‏@PV_Anomaly
GFS simulating a type of "hybrid" sting jet on the northern edge, devastating given its forward speed to the west. Sting jets are incredible wind machines in warm seclusion type events, incredibly rare if not unheard of on east coast. In this case a non-direct hit for those locations north of the cyclone center would be hit hardest. Bloomberg would eat his words.


Aussie

First Ive ever heard of this sting jet phenom.can you elaborated?
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Quoting mynameispaul:


I've been thru a lot of hurricanes and usually stay put unless there is a mandatory evacuation. That's just my own choice though. If you have tropical force winds and have no reason to evacuate (medical conditions, etc) you might just have to deal with power outages for the most part. Just my two cents.


The wind speed is expected to be around 80 mph at landfall. Most people wouldn't evacuate for that. Depends whether your situation is flood prone.
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600. sigh
Quoting weathercurious25:
Hello everyone,this is my first post over to the blog,i found it some days ago.

I a couple of questions, i have been reading all 6 days now and i am wondering.I live in the DC area, and i read all about a monster storm and everything.

My first question is, how bad is that going to be for DC? I mean windwise mostly, and if except that there are more things that i should be worried about.

My second question is,i am thinking of 3 options right now,the one is staying here and hope that things will be ok at the house i am living at, the second is to go to the family house which would be 105 miles southwest from here(and has a basement)and third and not so reasonable right now,go for some days to really southwest 420 from here to NC.

I would appreciate if people won't make fun of me,i haven't been in such a situation before and i don't know what to expect.

Thanks a lot for any answer in advance.

There is no reason to evacuate from the DC area on account of wind.

You should make sure you're prepared for a sustained power outage though.

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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Good question post # 593. It probably will be down graded to a tropical storm later today, Saturday, but that still would be classified as a "tropical cyclone".
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597. Skyepony (Mod)
Another wild possibility in this is the low that has developed off the far NE..the one that should help position the high in such a way to push Sandy in to the NE..Fresh OSCAT of that forming..


Now check out how GFS takes it from cold-core to a warm-core storm as it travels ESE across the Atlantic, even though it's above the 26º mark. This makes me think of those odd shallow storms in that area that we have seen feed on moderate shear.

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Quoting weathercurious25:


And could someone explain to me what this model means and is so bad as i can understand?


It shows a very intense system, judging from the isobars, going straight up the Hudson river into New York from the SE.

No telling where landfall is yet. You'll have to wait until Monday to know for sure. The further south you are from the centre, the less affected you will be.

Being a few hundred miles south is much better than a few hundred miles north.
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Anyone know where the file of this map:
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594. sigh
Quoting BosGuy:
Anybody care to help a layperson newbie figure out whether to board up windows in a house 20 min. west of Boston?

Don't bother. It's certainly possible you could have a rogue object fly into a window, but it's extremely unlikely. In Boston, you shouldn't have winds any greater than what you'd get in a powerful Nor'easter.

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Skyepony, nice catch of the ASCAT image. It is almost due east of us.

Question for all, will the NHC downgrade Sandy to something other than a hurricane before landfall in NE? If it is still officially called a hurricane then I think that many people will not have insurance coverage.

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Quoting weathercurious25:
Hello everyone,this is my first post over to the blog,i found it some days ago.

I a couple of questions, i have been reading all 6 days now and i am wondering.I live in the DC area, and i read all about a monster storm and everything.

My first question is, how bad is that going to be for DC? I mean windwise mostly, and if except that there are more things that i should be worried about.

My second question is,i am thinking of 3 options right now,the one is staying here and hope that things will be ok at the house i am living at, the second is to go to the family house which would be 105 miles southwest from here(and has a basement)and third and not so reasonable right now,go for some days to really southwest 420 from here to NC.

I would appreciate if people won't make fun of me,i haven't been in such a situation before and i don't know what to expect.

Thanks a lot for any answer in advance.


I've been thru a lot of hurricanes and usually stay put unless there is a mandatory evacuation. That's just my own choice though. If you have tropical force winds and have no reason to evacuate (medical conditions, etc) you might just have to deal with power outages for the most part. Just my two cents.
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SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...OUT TO 1000 FMS

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...

.OVERNIGHT...E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT...E TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WITH S
SWELL...HIGHEST S.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT WITH S
SWELL...HIGHEST S.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT WITH S
SWELL...HIGHEST SW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.MON...NE TO E WINDS 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 24 TO 36 FT.
.TUE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY...DIMINISHING TO
S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
HOLY SHOOT!!!!!



And could someone explain to me what this model means and is so bad as i can understand?
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Hello everyone,this is my first post over to the blog,i found it some days ago.

I a couple of questions, i have been reading all 6 days now and i am wondering.I live in the DC area, and i read all about a monster storm and everything.

My first question is, how bad is that going to be for DC? I mean windwise mostly, and if except that there are more things that i should be worried about.

My second question is,i am thinking of 3 options right now,the one is staying here and hope that things will be ok at the house i am living at, the second is to go to the family house which would be 105 miles southwest from here(and has a basement)and third and not so reasonable right now,go for some days to really southwest 420 from here to NC.

I would appreciate if people won't make fun of me,i haven't been in such a situation before and i don't know what to expect.

Thanks a lot for any answer in advance.
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US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly has also just issued a Public Information Statement. This is a must read.

"PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATI
ONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...POTENTIAL HISTORIC STORM FOR THE AREA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TAKE A
TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IT APPEARS THIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT OUR
REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STORM, POSSIBLY OF
HISTORIC PROPORTIONS.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER,
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE STORM THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN /POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10
INCHES/ WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE MAJOR TO EVEN RECORD FLOODING.
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. AS WATER IS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST, COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE AND THIS COULD BE TO MAJOR TO PERHAPS EVEN RECORD LEVELS
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE EXTENT OF THE
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LARGE AND RECORD SETTING STORM, WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH
EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AT
THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE RAIN AND
WIND LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL TIME
TO PREPARE.

SOME SUGGESTED PRE-STORM ACTIONS ARE:

1. FUEL UP YOUR VEHICLES.

2. IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR, BE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FUEL ON HAND.

3. TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES, MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE A SUPPLY OF FRESH BATTERIES AND A SUPPLY OF CANDLES OR
FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND.

4. BE SURE TO HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF FRESH WATER ON HAND FOR DRINKING
AND COOKING.

5. IF YOU STILL HAVE LAWN FURNITURE OUTSIDE, SECURE OR STORE IT
INDOORS. SECURE ANY OUTSIDE ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE IN
STRONG WINDS, INCLUDING HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.

6. CLEAN OUT ANY STORM DRAINS OR GUTTERS THAT MAY BE CLOGGED BY
LEAVES.

7. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA AND IF POSSIBLE, CONSIDER
MOVING ITEMS THAT MAY BECOME DAMAGED TO HIGHER GROUND.

8. IF YOU HAVE LIMITED MOBILITY OR KNOW OF SOMEONE WHO MAY BE
DISABLED, CONSIDER ARRANGING FOR TEMPORARY SHELTER IF THEY LIVE IN
AN AREA THAT MAY FLOOD OR COULD LOSE POWER.

9. IF YOU NEED TO EVACUATE, BE SURE TO CARE FOR YOUR PETS.

$$
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587. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT
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Quoting AussieStorm:
HOLY SHOOT!!!!!



That is not good at all.
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585. Skyepony (Mod)
Saw where a spotter got a wind of 60mph on one of the piers around here.

TRMM pass of sandy misses alot of the precipitation.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


I spy with my little eye, a ton of closed isobars off the US east coast. Wonder what that could be...


Yes of course. But what an odd place to lable it with a XX to indicate a location.

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HOLY SHOOT!!!!!

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting MelbourneTom:
Sandy is where???





I spy with my little eye, a ton of closed isobars off the US east coast. Wonder what that could be...
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Sandy is where???



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Haven't heard from BahaHurican in quite awhile, I imagine his power is out, hope that is the only problem.

I'm down and out for the count, goodnight all.
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Hurricane Sandy prompts N.J. to reduce water levels in 4 reservoirs, 2 lakes
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
hr 147 total precip

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Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
@PV_Anomaly you see my prev. cross-section tweet: pic.twitter.com/bwP0kyFm
Vertical cross-section of #Sandy coherent PV tower, 50 m/s winds on N. flank of tower, Would be unreal for Boston.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
The frontal push has started. Still raining here with some minor gusts.


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Sandy: Serious As a Heart Attack
Posted by: Bryan Norcross, 4:05 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
It's one of the ugliest looking hurricanes you'll see, but Hurricane Hunters and satellite measurements confirm that its still tropical enough to be a hurricane... and its on track to cause a pile of trouble.

Two atmospheric processes are counteracting each other at the moment. Strong upper winds are trying to tear the storm apart, but a split in the upper flow is causing, essentially, a strong suction from above which is helping the storm keep going. This situation will likely result in some weakening... which would mean Sandy would drop below hurricane strength. But then the polar jet stream takes over and re-energizes the storm increasing the winds and growing the size. A sharp dip in the jet stream will pick up the reinvigorated Sandy and swing it toward the East Coast. At least that's the plan.

There are some ifs and maybes in that scenario, but the best computer forecast models independently insist that this is what's going to happen... and the not-so-reliable ones say the same thing. So, beginning immediately, it comes down to figuring out how to deal with it.

The ocean will rise along the coast as Sandy makes it's way north, but the biggest coastal problems will come when the center makes landfall. We're unlikely to know exactly where that will be until Monday, but this is critical. The ocean will be pushed toward the coast north of that point and away to the south. The onshore flow of water is exaggerated where bays, inlets, or the shape of the coastline focus the water to make it rise even higher. The most prominent problem spot is New York City, where Long Island and New Jersey make an "L".

Raritan Bay and New York Bay and the south end of Manhattan are especially susceptible to rising water if the center of Sandy comes ashore in New Jersey or south. Much as we saw in Irene, it is potentially a monstrous problem due to the threat to NYC infrastructure and transportation. There are tough decisions ahead for the Mayor and his people.

Right now, the odds favor that southern track. The threat from this situation is serious as a heart attack for anybody near the rising water.

Then there's the wind which is expected to be MUCH higher than Irene at the skyscraper level. The city will also have to be thinking about the threat to people in tall buildings.

The winds... expected to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall... will spread inland for hundreds of miles either side of the storm center. It's hard to imagine how millions of people are not going to be without power for an extended period of time.

Widespread rainfall of 3 to 7 inches with some places getting a foot or more will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding.

And then there's the snow. Heavy wet snow is forecast for the mountains of West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania, mixed with rain at the lower elevations.

The winds will increase Sunday night in the Tidewater of Virginia and spread north through the day on Monday. The best guess right now is that the peak winds will come in overnight Monday night... near high tide and under a full, flooding moon. A triple whammy.

Let me think, what other disastrous thing might happen. It's storm overload, I know... and nobody likes to think about these kinds of things. Nothing here is certain, of course, just becoming more likely with every new piece of data. But one thing is for sure... it this all happens as forecast, and you and your family are stuck in the cold and dark without food and light and communications because you didn't run to the store and get ready... excuses are going to spectacularly hard to come by.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
The Oz ‏@PV_Anomaly
GFS simulating a type of "hybrid" sting jet on the northern edge, devastating given its forward speed to the west. Sting jets are incredible wind machines in warm seclusion type events, incredibly rare if not unheard of on east coast. In this case a non-direct hit for those locations north of the cyclone center would be hit hardest. Bloomberg would eat his words.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting Skyepony:
I've had 0.83in today. Blowing rain right now, 20mph. Highest wind was 34mph....
Patrick AFB recorded several gusts in the 40-plus mph range, and sustained winds of up to 37 mph. It is a surprisingly big difference from the beach to just a few miles inland.
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Not hard to imagine why Sandy will reintensify baroclinically with this huge jet streak over the Ohio Valley:

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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting BosGuy:
Anybody care to help a layperson newbie figure out whether to board up windows in a house 20 min. west of Boston?

The local mets are doing a great job, but I still don't think most folks have a clear picture of what to expect. We're hearing NE will miss the worst of the rain, but could get the worst of the wind. Gusts of 60 mph in MA, 80+ in CT, long period of sustained tropical storm force. And I've seen the ugly low pressure blobs right over my head in some of your gifs.

On top of which, one of the mets online told me something about the stratosphere folding up and raising the potential that a random t-storm could bring down 100 mph gusts!

However, here are the current wind speed probabilities:


forecast hour
....(12)...(24)...(36)...(48)...(72)...(96)...(12 0)
34...x...x( x)...x( x)...x( x)...6( 6)...13(19)...3(22)
50...x...x( x)...x( x)...x( x)...1( 1)...1( 2)...2( 4)

Because this storm is constantly described as so monstrous, none of my neighbors can figure out how to relate it to our previous experience. Storm surge is a non-issue here; it's all about the wind. We all have trees of various sizes in front of our houses; some are large but not particularly heavily-canopied. One main branch fell on my house a month or so ago and caused no damage at all--but of course, it didn't hit a window.

I have to stress that no one in MA ever boards up windows unless they are on the Cape, Islands or coast. And it's expensive to repair. But I'm willing to be the local laughingstock if I really thought it was worth it. I just can't get my head around how much worse it will be than anything else in the last 25 years or so.


That wind speed probability table from the NHC is not designed to handle baroclinic systems. They've been saying that over the last day.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Used to watch Buddy Rich on the Carson show every once in awhile. Hard to believe you could get better than that.


Buddy was the boss. No question.

As to the forecasts, here in SW Nova Scotia, I'm feeling fortunate that that little ridge should keep the worst away from here, but I've still stocked up on essentials, 'cause the rains could go on for days.
A couple of days ago I was thinking we might have another Saxby Gale, which gave us the record for the highest tides in the world.
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Hi eveybody im new on the blog, and you will be hearing from me alot this winter. So thanks for having. I do believe that sandy will be a big impack to the northeast, just hard to know what the steering currents are going to do when makes landfall.
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Anybody care to help a layperson newbie figure out whether to board up windows in a house 20 min. west of Boston?

The local mets are doing a great job, but I still don't think most folks have a clear picture of what to expect. We're hearing NE will miss the worst of the rain, but could get the worst of the wind. Gusts of 60 mph in MA, 80+ in CT, long period of sustained tropical storm force. And I've seen the ugly low pressure blobs right over my head in some of your gifs.

On top of which, one of the mets online told me something about the stratosphere folding up and raising the potential that a random t-storm could bring down 100 mph gusts!

However, here are the current wind speed probabilities:


forecast hour
....(12)...(24)...(36)...(48)...(72)...(96)...(12 0)
34...x...x( x)...x( x)...x( x)...6( 6)...13(19)...3(22)
50...x...x( x)...x( x)...x( x)...1( 1)...1( 2)...2( 4)

Because this storm is constantly described as so monstrous, none of my neighbors can figure out how to relate it to our previous experience. Storm surge is a non-issue here; it's all about the wind. We all have trees of various sizes in front of our houses; some are large but not particularly heavily-canopied. One main branch fell on my house a month or so ago and caused no damage at all--but of course, it didn't hit a window.

I have to stress that no one in MA ever boards up windows unless they are on the Cape, Islands or coast. And it's expensive to repair. But I'm willing to be the local laughingstock if I really thought it was worth it. I just can't get my head around how much worse it will be than anything else in the last 25 years or so.
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HR 111 GFS 00Z


directly over head
my location
lower lakes region
at 111 hr
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Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
WV snow still feet, wider area of minor accums may include DC to Cleveland & some of Ohio pic.twitter.com/TmgZKIkN

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
72 HR rainfall for Carolinas...

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563. Skyepony (Mod)
I've had 0.83in today. Blowing rain right now, 20mph. Highest wind was 34mph.

Cloudsat of Sandy going down the east side. She's so huge it's in 2 frames go here..click on blue 19 & green 18.
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Quoting Autistic2:
Still no turn NE yet? When is that supposed to happen. VERY breezey here in St. Augustine.


Evening All.

Very soon. Sandy is getting pinched as we speak.

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I haven't seen this NOAA storm central page before...

http://www.noaa.gov/stormcentral/

Is this new?
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TWC sending Jim Cantore to New York City on Saturday. #HurricaneSandy
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting TampaSpin:


Brother what graphics or program is that your using?

I'm getting them from here. Though some people on here don't like him.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
HR 96 GFS 00Z
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HR 87 GFS 00Z
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Still no turn NE yet? When is that supposed to happen. VERY breezey here in St. Augustine.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto