Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz , 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

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Quoting LargoFl:
GOOD MORNING, JUST WENT OUTside and the winds are gusting pretty good now, lots of twigs etc all over the place..looks like a repeat of yesterday here..hope she moves farther away soon..stay safe up there ok
Yes i will. Im in Tampa right now working. I'm so ready for the temp coming on monday low 70's Yessss!!!!!!
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
Quoting ncstorm:
TWC just said the Sandy is moving away from Myrtle Beach, SC..how is that possible when Florida is still having tropical force winds??

Cause Sandy's wind-field is expanding.

Myrtle beach cam
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting breald:
If the worse of the weather will be north of the storm, as far as wind, it seems to me that NY and Southern New England will bear the brunt of the storm?
the storm is so huge, from NC all the way up to new england is going to get whacked pretty hard,but storm surge etc yes will be worse on its northern side they said.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Quoting AussieStorm:
14.17inches.... that's holy cow territory.
no matter the wind issue..there is going to be tremendous flooding up there..add 14 inches of rain to the storm surge and high tides, this is going to be a disaster, I surely hope those in its path, especially those in flood zones get out of there while they still can.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
TWC just said the Sandy is moving away from Myrtle Beach, SC..how is that possible when Florida is still having tropical force winds??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
701. LargoFl
10:59 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting severstorm:
morning Largo and all, Quite the windy day it was yesterday. I live in Z-hills and very protected area for winds. i had gust up to 34.7 four times avg. 19mph for the whole day.
GOOD MORNING, JUST WENT OUTside and the winds are gusting pretty good now, lots of twigs etc all over the place..looks like a repeat of yesterday here..hope she moves farther away soon..stay safe up there ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
700. AussieStorm
10:58 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Bad news for Vietnam this morning as Son-tinh underwent RI last night and is likely at or close to major hurricane status:



Nice concentric eyewalls:





Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
699. ncstorm
10:58 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Good Morning Everyone..

This is just like Irene again where TWC is skipping all past the SE states and focusing on the NE states..yes they will have impact but so will we..

The 00z Euro actually came in more west for my area..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
698. breald
10:48 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Interesting info...


Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
697. MAweatherboy1
10:48 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 27 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (965 hPa) located at 17.0N 109.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.0N 106.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 20.3N 105.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 21.2N 104.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam

Bad news for Vietnam this morning as Son-tinh underwent RI last night and is likely at or close to major hurricane status:



Nice concentric eyewalls:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
696. goalexgo
10:47 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


Link



WOW!!! I cant believe this Sting Jet situation. This is a scenario that no one is considering. The dreaded Sting Jet. Looks like the Hudson Valley will be decimitated on the storms current path, with the Sting Jet sprawling to the north.
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 127
695. AussieStorm
10:44 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting breald:


Thanks Aussie, as usual people are focusing too much on the landfall cone and not the places outside of the cone which may very well get the worse of the weather. Bottom line, NY City, CT and possibly Southern NE, will be in the middle of this mess, right? :(

It will be a nor'easter that is packed full of tropical moisture also.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
694. severstorm
10:43 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
i have to say..im at least 400 miles away, maybe a touch more and the winds are still 25-30 mph here..this storm is HUGE in area affected and its supposed to be even Larger as it gets up north....folks please...prepare today!!..
morning Largo and all, Quite the windy day it was yesterday. I live in Z-hills and very protected area for winds. i had gust up to 34.7 four times avg. 19mph for the whole day.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
693. MAweatherboy1
10:41 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
A NOAA plane is in her right now and they just got this:

962.8 mb
(~ 28.43 inHg)

A dropsonde also just picked up 961mb.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
692. MAweatherboy1
10:40 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Good morning. Not a whole lot of change to Sandy overnight, somewhere in NJ still looks like the most likely spot for landfall:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
691. breald
10:38 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

North and west side of the storm due to baroclinical difference.


Thanks Aussie, as usual people are focusing too much on the landfall cone and not the places outside of the cone which may very well get the worse of the weather. Bottom line, NY City, CT and possibly Southern NE, will be in the middle of this mess, right? :(
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
690. AussieStorm
10:31 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting breald:
If the worse of the weather will be north of the storm, as far as wind, it seems to me that NY and Southern New England will bear the brunt of the storm?

North and west side of the storm due to baroclinical difference.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
689. breald
10:27 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
If the worse of the weather will be north of the storm, as far as wind, it seems to me that NY and Southern New England will bear the brunt of the storm?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
688. AussieStorm
10:21 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
687. AussieStorm
10:12 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Forecasters predicting a less ferocious storm

An approaching storm always means a flood of calls for people like Ronnie Harkness, co-owner of Rocky's Tree Service in Bradford.
I probably got 10, 15 calls already, people who want it done by Monday. It's definitely something that should be taken care of before a storm not now, he said.
Harkness was referring to trees that could become hazards if Hurricane Sandy brings damaging winds. He has a crew of 10 men on three bucket trucks working as long as daylight will allow, trying to answer all the calls from worried home-owner's wanting them to trim or remove dangerous trees.
By Friday afternoon, computer models at the National Hurricane Centre showed that Sandy would be making landfall early Tuesday morning along the New Jersey-Delaware border. National Weather Service Meteorologist Alan Dunham said, Its going to be a very wide storm, so even if the track does move into southern Jersey, Delaware, we will still be getting effects up here in southern New England. I would still anticipate some isolated power outages.
Isaac Ginis, professor at the University of Rhode Islands Graduate School of Oceanography, is recognized for developing computer models that predict the paths of hurricanes. Ginis said it appears that Rhode Island and Connecticut may dodge a bullet.
It all depends on how big the storm is. If its going to make landfall in New Jersey, we will be away from the maximum winds, he said. Its good news that we wont get a direct hit.
Despite all the technological advances and a host of computer models, predicting the strengths and paths of hurricanes and tropical storms is challenging because of the scale and unpredictable nature of these events. There are many factors to bear in mind for towns anticipating big storms, and Sandy is more complicated than most.
Typical storms move to the north, but this time, there is a very strong so-called atmospheric trough sitting to the north, blocking Sandy [from moving] to the north as typical hurricanes do. So essentially, it has nowhere to go, and most likely it will turn to the west or west-north-west and make landfall somewhere along the Eastern Seaboard, Ginis said.
Ginis said that the temperature of the ocean could also produce more precipitation.
This year, the temperature of the water is about 5 degrees higher than average. What that means is that water vapor that is evaporated from the ocean will bring a lot of moisture into the storm and lead to significant rainfall, he said.
There's another important factor that must be taken into account when predicting one of Sandy's most dangerous and damaging effects: storm surge.
When the storm is expected to make landfall, there's going to be the highest astronomical tide for the month, Ginis said. It will come at a time when the tides will be higher. Of course, storm surge in addition to the tides could produce significant storm surge flooding.
The trough of cold air will also produce a different wind pattern than the one usually seen with tropical storms and hurricanes.
It will not only have tropical storm features, but also features that are typical for storms in the wintertime, like in nor'easters. We might see strong pockets of strong wind to the left of the storm, in the front and to the right, Ginis said.
Misquamicut storm-watcher and author Donald Gentile has been studying Rhode Islands coastal storms since he was a boy. He says he's looking forward to seeing what Sandy brings, even though there's a risk of flooding at his Crandall Avenue home.
It may come right to my house this time, because I'm 10 feet above sea level. I'm going to be here, I'm going to be taking pictures, I'm going to be making a little booklet about it, he said.
Gentile agrees that the timing and the level of the high tides will contribute to the predicted storm surge.
The astronomical tides are real high Saturday, Sunday, Monday. The fetch [distance the wind will blow across the water] involved here is just unheard of, he said.
Asked to compare the predicted severity of Sandy with Tropical Storm Irene last August, Dunham, the meteorologist, said Sandy is expected to be less damaging, but he warned that a change in the storms track could change everything.
I'm recommending to people, keep track of the forecast over the weekend. If they start seeing that the forecast track is starting to move further north, and therefore closer to Rhode island, they're going to have to make even more preparations. Keep close tabs on the latest forecast for the storm, make a plan of what you need to get done on Sunday and very early Monday if the storm is going to come closer, he said.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
686. 94vortech
10:06 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
Any reason why mission 13 into Sandy turned around over Miami? Mechanical failure? Instrument failure? Electronic failure?


It was a maintenance issue.
Member Since: July 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
685. AussieStorm
10:00 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Bastardi Power Scale which incorporates pressure, has this as a 2.8 pressure and .9 wind.. 3.7 out of 10. Hurricane starts at 2.

I wonder what a 10 would be?????
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
684. AussieStorm
10:00 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
14.17inches.... that's holy cow territory.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
683. trunkmonkey
9:46 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting MelbourneTom:
I had no response to my insurance question. If the NHC keeps Sandy classified as a hurricane will the people in NE be covered? I suspect most people there do not carry seperate hurricane coverage like we do in Florida.


You will not be covered unless you have Hurricane insurance.

Irene was fully covered because it was a tropical storm.

The NHC is being nice to folks by downgrading Sandy, event when one of the quadrants has Hurricane force winds.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
682. barbamz
9:36 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
New Vortex reading

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 09:29Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 9:11:32Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28%uFFFD35'N 76%uFFFD48'W (28.5833N 76.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 246 miles (395 km) to the N (8%uFFFD) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the SW (235%uFFFD) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 295%uFFFD at 50kts (From the WNW at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the SW (235%uFFFD) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9%uFFFDC (48%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 3,637m (11,932ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12%uFFFDC (54%uFFFDF) at a pressure alt. of 3,682m (12,080ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5%uFFFDC (41%uFFFDF)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): SPIRAL BANDING
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Fix Determined By: Penetration
O. Fix Level: 300mb
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph) in the southwest quadrant at 8:49:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 12%uFFFDC (54%uFFFDF) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (268%uFFFD) from the flight level center
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 12,000 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CENTER EMBEDDED IN CONVECTION
SST 26.6 in CENTER FROM AXBT



Source
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6264
681. VirginIslandsVisitor
9:29 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Good morning/afternoon/evening, everyone.

Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 679
680. AussieStorm
9:24 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
I hope now that Sandy is a Tropical storm people don't get complacent. Sandy will be a whole new type of storm, a super-hybrid. She will bring a lot of rain, snow and even hurricane strength winds.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
679. barbamz
9:14 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
000
WTNT33 KNHC 270846
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY WEAKENS BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE STORM WITH
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY
41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY
THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED
PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6264
678. FlyingScotsman
9:12 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Very strange...NHC held Sandy at hurricane strength when recon really didn't seem to support it, and now that recon is again finding near-hurricane-force winds in the SW quadrant (and probably stronger elsewhere), they downgraded it...
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 218
677. barbamz
8:49 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Squall is arriving at Charleston and farther north. Can't manage it to show the radar, sigh. Check out the radar stations on WU.

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6264
676. KoritheMan
8:31 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:


Not even the ensembles take it out to sea, heh.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21112
675. FlyingScotsman
8:28 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings, but apparently even the latest advisory describing TS-force winds 435 miles out is too conservative—Buoy 41048 has started reporting them 525 miles out!!!
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 218
674. barbamz
8:23 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
3 days of hell
City weighs shutdown in Sandy’s path

By BILL SANDERSON and DAVID SEIFMAN
Last Updated: 3:47 AM, October 27, 2012
Posted: 12:52 AM, October 27, 2012
More: New York Post
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6264
673. LargoFl
8:16 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
672. LargoFl
8:14 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting yonzabam:
Sandy's telling us it's gonna be a cat 5. Oh dear!


i have to say..im at least 400 miles away, maybe a touch more and the winds are still 25-30 mph here..this storm is HUGE in area affected and its supposed to be even Larger as it gets up north....folks please...prepare today!!..
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671. LargoFl
8:11 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
NAEFS at 60 hours..........
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670. yonzabam
8:09 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Sandy's telling us it's gonna be a cat 5. Oh dear!


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669. LargoFl
8:05 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
132 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS HURRICANE SANDY TO TRACK
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING TOWARD
THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TRACK
OF SANDY COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
MARYLAND...WASHINGTON DC...AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF THE STORM. RISES ON RIVERS COULD CONTINUE FLOODING POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAMAGING WINDS: IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPEARS TO BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW AND A FULL MOON ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. MORE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT OF THE TRACK OF
THE STORM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. GALE
OR STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR
UPDATES ON THE TRACK OF SANDY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED IF SANDY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
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668. LargoFl
8:03 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
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667. LargoFl
8:01 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
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666. LargoFl
7:59 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0300 UTC SAT OCT 27 2012

CORRECTED TO REMOVE INLAND IN 96 AND 120 HR STATUS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO ST AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 77.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 120NW.
34 KT.......360NE 180SE 110SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 600SE 360SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 77.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.8N 76.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 120NW.
34 KT...360NE 200SE 120SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...360NE 220SE 170SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 33.8N 71.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 170NW.
34 KT...360NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...380NE 330SE 300SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 40.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 42.0N 76.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 77.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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665. LargoFl
7:57 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
664. LargoFl
7:53 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting presslord:
Sandy just woke me up...wind about 20 from the north...gusting to 30...making for a rocky night aboard Lady Bug...
..lol she just woke me up here also, winds are stronger now than when she was closest to me yesterday
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663. presslord
7:46 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Sandy just woke me up...wind about 20 from the north...gusting to 30...making for a rocky night aboard Lady Bug...
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662. barbamz
7:41 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
ECMWF 00Z is available for the public.
Loop

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661. yonzabam
7:35 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Shear is starting to drop as the front gets closer. I wonder if this is expected to continue, as Levi forecast?

Levi, where are you when we need you? Isn't it still daylight up in Alaska?



I don't understand that. Yesterday, Sandy was under 40 kts of shear, and the map showed 70 kts in its path.
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660. BruceK
7:17 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Here is the current water vapor GOES showing the two systems comming together.
LINK

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659. barbamz
7:03 AM GMT on October 27, 2012


source
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658. whitewabit (Mod)
7:03 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Buoy 41010 just north of Sandy's location ..

Conditions at 41010 as of
(2:20 am EDT)
0620 GMT on 10/27/2012:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 46.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 66.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 28.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.6 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.05 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 72.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.4 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 50.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 54.4 kts
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31761
657. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:02 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 27 2012
==================================

A Low Pressure Area has formed near 12.0N 91.0E over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 3.1 km about mean sea level. The system would likely become more well marked during the next 24 hours.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46175
656. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:01 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 27 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (965 hPa) located at 17.0N 109.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.0N 106.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 20.3N 105.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 21.2N 104.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46175

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.