Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz , 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

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NOAA
965.2 mb
(~ 28.50 inHg)

61.0 knots (~ 70.2 mph)
Tropical Storm
---
Hmm...
Air Force
65.1 knots (~ 74.8 mph)
Category One Hurricane
981.6 mb
(~ 28.99 inHg)

Minimum:
976.6 mb
(~ 28.84 inHg)

I don't understand why the highest winds are not near the minimum pressure.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
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A friend of mine posted this, good info.

The wavewatch model suggests waves at the coast in a small area may reach 30-36 ft. Other portions of the coast could see breakers as high as 15-21 ft.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/WEB_P/multi_2.la test_run/plots/US_eastcoast.hs.f078h.png
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Quoting longislander102:
Oh jeez, am I doomed here on the south shore of Long Island New York or what? lol


Keep laughing...lol

If Sandy does what they are predicting, you need to be on high ground early next week.
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Quoting LargoFl:
folks if anyone hears about evacuations in washington dc proper..please post that ok............

You've seen this one.....

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
503 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018- VAZ052>057-
281215-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
503 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. THE
ADVISORY WILL INCLUDE ALL WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM SANDY TO TRACK
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING
TOWARD THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
TRACK OF SANDY COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DC-BALTIMORE CORRIDOR WEST TO FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. RISES ON RIVERS COULD CONTINUE FLOODING
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAMAGING WINDS: IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPEARS TO BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW AND A FULL MOON ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. GALE
OR STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR
UPDATES ON THE TRACK OF SANDY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IF
SANDY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND PD IS WHERE THE ACTION IS. I`VE BEEN FCSTG
FOR A LONG TIME AND CAN CERTAINLY AGREE W/ OTHER COMMENTS I`VE HEARD
THAT THIS IS A UNIQUE SITUATION. THE MDLS ARE STILL NOT IN
COMPLETE RESOLUTION REGARDING WHERE SANDY IS GOING TO MAKE
LANDFALL - BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE PHI FCST AREA -
BTWN THE DELMARVA AND N JERSEY. THE E CST IS XPCTG TO SEE A LARGE
AMT OF RAIN FM THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST AMTS WL MOST LKLY
BE OVR NJ/PA WE STILL THINK THERE`S THE PTNL FOR 3-5" IN THE ERN
PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOOKING AT FFG THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN
WOULD ESSENTIALLY BE IN LN W/ THE I-95 DC-BALT METRO CORRIDOR
WHERE 6 HR VALUES ARE GNRLY 2-3`. HOWEVER WE WL BE ISSUING THIS AS
A FLD WTCH (NOT FLASH FLD) GIVEN THE LONG TIMESPAN WHERE MDT/HVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

ONE THING I`VE SEEN IN PAST YRS REGARDING LARGE LOW PRES AREAS SUCH AS
THIS IS THAT THE MDLS HANG ON TO THE LOW LVL MOISTURE/PCPN LONGER
THAN WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS. I THINK THIS MAY BE THE CASE W/ THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. ONCE THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS NRN
PA/NY STATE A DRY SLOT MAY DVLP IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY LATE TUE
AND WED - THIS IS WHAT THE GFS IS IMPLYING.

I AM STILL HVG TROUBLE GETTING EXCITED OVR SNOWFALL IN THE WRN
PART OF THE CWA AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY N. TEMP-WISE THE GFS
850-1000 THCKNS VALUES ARE GNRLY ABV 1300 M...WHICH DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR SNOW. HV TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN GRIDS CLOSE TO
I-81.

MDLS ARE SLOW TO EXIT THE UPR LOW - GFS HAS IT NEAR CYYZ AT 12Z
THU WHILE ECM CENTERS IT NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. EITHER WAY ALTHO MID ATLC WL
STILL BE UNDER COOL CYCLONIC FLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD
BE DRY.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting freeroam:
LargoFla I found this:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/frankenstorm-has -f inancial-centers-on-edge-2012-10-26

Oct. 26, 2012, 11:23 p.m. EDT
Hurricane Sandy may force evacuations in NYC
Virginia, N.C. declare emergencies; NYSE making contingency plans.
many thanks...
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Quoting longislander102:
Oh jeez, am I doomed here on the south shore of Long Island New York or what? lol
if the evac order comes out this morning..do it
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Oh jeez, am I doomed here on the south shore of Long Island New York or what? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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LargoFla I found this:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/frankenstorm-has -f inancial-centers-on-edge-2012-10-26

Oct. 26, 2012, 11:23 p.m. EDT
Hurricane Sandy may force evacuations in NYC
Virginia, N.C. declare emergencies; NYSE making contingency plans.
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Quoting ncstorm:
This is Topsail Beach, NC webcam with High tide happening now and waves are cresting near the top of the pier..


Ahh, thank you. I was already looking for this beach cam we used to watch during Irene.
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Quoting cajunkid:
That is a whole lot of dry air she is eating.

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Quoting Bobbyweather:
Hurricane-force winds?
65.2 knots (~ 75.0 mph)
Category One Hurricane




Indeed. Off the tip of northern Bahamas.

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That is a whole lot of dry air she is eating.
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NAEFS at 72 hours, already hitting the area before this.
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folks if anyone hears about evacuations in washington dc proper..please post that ok............
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Hurricane-force winds?
65.2 knots (~ 75.0 mph)
Category One Hurricane
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
Sandy is a hurricane again according to recon. Recon just found 90+ knot flight level winds and 67 knt surface winds.
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In New Orleans here. My concern for my Northeast coast friends. I know you guys are not as used to these storms as we are on the Gulf coast. Please pay attention and if officials say evacuate do so. Please have lots of water and all emergency supplies including medications. That means if you stay or leave take it with you. My prayers are Sandy fishes out to sea. Stay safe and stay out the water!
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Quoting AussieStorm:


There is a blocking high in the N-ATL.


This is a very useful animation, Aussi. Please repost it every hour or so ...
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Link 'Serious as a Heart Attack'
Brian Norcross has written an excellent blog summing up the situation in layman's terms -- no charts or graphs, just blunt and to the point explanation of matters as they stand. Chris Burt makes a good point about Sandy weakening and how this can be a false message to those who most need to be getting their stuff together over this impending event right now.
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the reason that the upper level dip in the jet stream will pull the storm inland instead of push the storm out over the water is due to the negative tilt of the jet stream. Well when Sandy comes up from the south the winds along that trough will be SE to NW in addition to that there will be a high centered over nova scotia which will produce winds from east to west along the south side of the high pressure. This will create a funnel of winds from east/southeast into the NYC/NJ area. if you also notice after landfall the models really dont know what to do with the storm and that is because once the storm gets into this funnel there is no way out till the high pressure in Canada moves. This means that Sandy will sit there till either 1. She dies slowly over time or 2. the high pressure moves. That is why we could see days on days of rain and wind.
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Quoting HurrikanEB:


I'm a little bit confused about the whole steering dynamics with Sandy... that's a cold front that is sweeping across the eastern US right? Why isn't it just going to sweep her out to sea like what normally happens when a front interacts with a storm... why is she going to have a westward component at landfall.

I really want to understand the dynamics involved.


There is a blocking high in the N-ATL.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
ISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY
41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY
THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED
PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
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my guess is NYC will begin evacuations today takes awhile to get people to leave..........HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
546 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

ANZ330-335-338-340-350-353-355-281000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
546 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY FEEL THE IMPACTS OF A DANGEROUS
COASTAL STORM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GALE FORCE SUNDAY...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG WITH EXTREMELY HIGH SEAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS ON SANDY...AND MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$$
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It's contaminated, but
From Air Force:
72.0 knots* (~ 82.8 mph*)
Category One Hurricane*
988.2 mb
(~ 29.18 inHg)

From NOAA:
974.0 mb
(~ 28.76 inHg)
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
Quoting ncstorm:


well I posted last night that the cold front that is supposed to turn Sandy to the NE is going to stall over the NC mountains..so the longer it takes her to turn and her to sit over the gulf stream, then impacts are going to be more for those of us in the SE states..
yep, this is not good
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Quoting LargoFl:
you know, the slower she goes today, the longer she sits over the gulf stream there..this is not good if she stalls or slows down any...


well I posted last night that the cold front that is supposed to turn Sandy to the NE is going to stall over the NC mountains..so the longer it takes her to turn and her to sit over the gulf stream, then impacts are going to be more for those of us in the SE states..
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Quoting HurrikanEB:


I'm a little bit confused about the whole steering dynamics with Sandy... that's a cold front that is sweeping across the eastern US right? Why isn't it just going to sweep her out to sea like what normally happens when a front interacts with a storm... why is she going to have a westward component at landfall.

I really want to understand the dynamics involved.
supposedly the cold front will sit somewhere inland, leaving a path or warm air right up the coastline for her to getinto..there is a High up in canada that will stop her from getting too far north as well.
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Quoting ncstorm:


yeah, I know that Aussie but TWC was saying that it was moving away from Myrtle Beach when the center hadnt even gotten parallel to the SC coast yet..:)..
you know, the slower she goes today, the longer she sits over the gulf stream there..this is not good if she stalls or slows down any...
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Quoting BruceK:
Here is the current water vapor GOES showing the two systems comming together.
LINK



I'm a little bit confused about the whole steering dynamics with Sandy... that's a cold front that is sweeping across the eastern US right? Why isn't it just going to sweep her out to sea like what normally happens when a front interacts with a storm... why is she going to have a westward component at landfall.

I really want to understand the dynamics involved.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Cause she is going ex-tropical, her wind-field is expanding. Her TS wind-field is now 415miles from the centre.


yeah, I know that Aussie but TWC was saying that it was moving away from Myrtle Beach when the center hadnt even gotten parallel to the SC coast yet..:)..
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Good morning, from 5 a.m. Advisory:
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES... INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY... ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
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I just heard that the upper level winds could reach 120 mph as the storm moves into the north. Yikes...some highrise damage is possible.
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Everyone please safe today, tomorrow, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday and Saturday..yes, this storm will be affecting a lot of people that long with impact and power outages..I will be back later..
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Quoting ncstorm:


the center is off Florida not SC

Cause she is going ex-tropical, her wind-field is expanding. Her TS wind-field is now 415miles from the centre.

Jacksonville Beach, Florida and the live pier cam
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Folks in DC and that whole area..Please get what you need TODAY and prepare.............warnings probably will get worse as this HUGE storm gets closer.................................FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DC-BALTIMORE CORRIDOR WEST TO FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. RISES ON RIVERS COULD CONTINUE FLOODING
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAMAGING WINDS: IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPEARS TO BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW AND A FULL MOON ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. GALE
OR STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR
UPDATES ON THE TRACK OF SANDY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IF
SANDY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
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Quoting barbamz:
New vortex fix: 961 mb! Down from 967.
she is regaining her strength already
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not even the ensembles take it out to sea, heh.
no this will be a land falling hurricane just about for sure..only question is, exactly where she comes in but..she is HUGE and the exact point doesnt really matter huh
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New vortex fix: 961 mb! Down from 967.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Cause Sandy's wind-field is expanding.


the center is off Florida not SC
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I hope now that Sandy is a Tropical storm people don't get complacent. Sandy will be a whole new type of storm, a super-hybrid. She will bring a lot of rain, snow and even hurricane strength winds.
and further north she will regain her strength
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HPC


06z GFS

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Quoting LargoFl:
GOOD MORNING, JUST WENT OUTside and the winds are gusting pretty good now, lots of twigs etc all over the place..looks like a repeat of yesterday here..hope she moves farther away soon..stay safe up there ok
Yes i will. Im in Tampa right now working. I'm so ready for the temp coming on monday low 70's Yessss!!!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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