Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz , 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AF dropsonde dropped in the center has reported 957mb. She's not only holding her own right now, she's strengthening. We expected the pressure to come down but it's coming down faster than we thought and the winds are coming up, which was also unexpected.
whew..this Lady is on a mission and nothing is going to stop her huh....
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Is the convection over her center again?, cause it looks so.
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...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AGAIN...
8:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 27
Location: 28.8°N 76.8°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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And there she is.
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AF dropsonde dropped in the center has reported 957mb. She's not only holding her own right now, she's strengthening. We expected the pressure to come down but it's coming down faster than we thought and the winds are coming up, which was also unexpected.
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Quoting 900MB:
From NYC. Looks like we went from screwed to royally screwed overnight.
Sandy seems to be holding together better than I thought it would. With plenty of warm water, gulf stream ahead, energy from approaching front, I wouldn't be stunned if we flirted with a cat 2 somewhere along the way. NHC puts the odds of that at 7%. I think that might be higher.
yes we must watch this closely, and good luck up there, hope you make it thru this ordeal ok
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Is the convection over her center again?, cause it looks so.
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Good Morning, Sandy.

The current NHC advisory has it at 960mb...the previous one had it at 969mb. That's one hell of a drop!
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Up and down the coast, people were cautioned to be prepared for days without electricity. Jersey Shore beach towns began issuing voluntary evacuations and protecting boardwalks. Atlantic City casinos made contingency plans to close, and officials advised residents of flood-prone areas to stay with family or be ready to leave. Several governors declared states of emergency. Airlines said to expect cancellations and waived change fees for passengers who want to reschedule.

“Be forewarned,” Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy. “Assume that you will be in the midst of flooding conditions, the likes of which you may not have seen at any of the major storms that have occurred over the last 30 years.”

At a Home Depot in Freeport, on New York’s Long Island, Bob Notheis bought sawhorses to put his furniture on inside his home.

“I’m just worried about how bad it’s going to be with the tidal surge,” he said. “Irene was kind of rough on me and I’m just trying to prepare.”

After Irene left millions without power, utilities were taking no chances and were lining up extra crews and tree-trimmers. Wind threatened to topple power lines, and trees that still have leaves could be weighed down by snow and fall over if the weight becomes too much.

New York City began precautions for an ominous but still uncertain forecast. No decision had been made on whether any of the city’s public transportation outlets would be shut, despite predictions that a sudden shift of the storm’s path could cause a surge of 3 to 6 feet in the subways.


Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/sandy-tro pical-storm-threatens-east-coast-article-1.1193631 #ixzz2AV691Yzh
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797. 900MB
From NYC. Looks like we went from screwed to royally screwed overnight.
Sandy seems to be holding together better than I thought it would. With plenty of warm water, gulf stream ahead, energy from approaching front, I wouldn't be stunned if we flirted with a cat 2 somewhere along the way. NHC puts the odds of that at 7%. I think that might be higher.
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I'm actually glad she's a hurricane again, because I think more people will pay attention than they would if she was a 73 mph tropical storm.
I sure hope so, some of them, maybe alot of them never experienced something like this and maybe wont believe it could get that bad..48 dead so far from this storm
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Did anyone else notice the center is .2 west and .2 north from the last advisory?
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Quoting LargoFl:
boy this is going to be bad


I'm actually glad she's a hurricane again, because I think more people will pay attention than they would if she was a 73 mph tropical storm.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Shouldn't they wait for the NHC to upgrade her. Would be funny for CNN if the NHC didn't upgrade Sandy.
NHC did.
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
CNN just reported that Sandy's a hurricane again.

Shouldn't they wait for the NHC to upgrade her. Would be funny for CNN if the NHC didn't upgrade Sandy.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Good morning.
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I am off to work. Where is Pat, haven't seen his post yet?
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WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Edison Electric Institute (EEI), the association of U.S. shareholder-owned electric companies, and its member companies are taking steps to prepare for Hurricane Sandy, which forecasters are predicting may become the worst storm to hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years.

Meteorologists expect a powerful, damaging, multi-day storm with high winds, heavy precipitation, extreme tides and flooding across a wide portion of the east coast and mid-Atlantic.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco noted: “We don’t have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.” Depending on the severity of the storm’s impact on the electrical system, customers are encouraged to prepare for the possibility of power outages lasting up to seven to 10 days by taking action before the storm occurs.

”With Hurricane Sandy predicted to strike as early as this weekend that could devastate the electric system for days, we urge customers to put safety first and be ready should severe weather reach their areas,” said Brian Wolff, EEI senior vice president. “EEI and its member utility companies understand that power outages of any duration are hugely disruptive to peoples’ lives, which is why we are preparing now for Hurricane Sandy, which forecasters are predicting may become the worst storm to hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years. Many of our member companies have already begun the process of pre-mobilizing thousands of storm and field personnel, and calling upon extra workers and resources from all across the country to assist in order to restore service as quickly and safely as possible.”

On the EEI Storm Center site, utility customers can find safety tips, links to customers’ own electricity providers’ outage centers, real-time information and updates on storm preparation and restoration progress. EEI also encourages utility customers to follow EEI’s social media sites Twitter and Facebook.
Just as the power companies prepare for severe weather and the possibility of power outages, EEI wants to remind power customers the importance of preparing for storms and other emergency situations — Be Safe, Be Informed.

If a severe storm is approaching:

Develop an emergency plan that addresses any special medical needs you or your family members have. Call your local emergency management office to discuss necessary arrangements.

Know all evacuation routes if you live close to the coast.

Have your Emergency Outage Kit stocked and readily available.

Pay attention to local weather reports on the radio, television, or Internet.

Stock up on groceries, water, medications, and any other necessities to avoid the need for travel during the storm. If called to evacuate, do so immediately.

If a severe storm does hit your area:
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


this storm is doing what it wants to do..literally! there are going to be a lot of bald meterologists after this is all said and done..
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
CNN just reported that Sandy's a hurricane again.
boy this is going to be bad
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...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE SANDY WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SANDY AT 27/0900 UTC AND HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED BACK TO A HURRICANE AS OF 27/1200 UTC DUE TO DATA FROM AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT THAT FOUND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 27/1200 UTC IS NEAR 28.8N 76.8W.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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GFDL remains on the southern edge:



Pressure now down to about 958mb according to recon.
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CNN just reported that Sandy's a hurricane again.
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TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — One of the New Jersey's largest utility companies says residents should expect power outages of a week or more once the effects of Hurricane Sandy hit the state.

A spokesman for Jersey Central Power and Light told a news conference Friday that people should take precautions now but prepare for the worst. The utility is a unit of FirstEnergy Corp.

The state's office of emergency management echoed those warnings. Spokeswoman Mary Goepfert says the storm likely will be worse than Hurricane Irene last year.

Gary Szatkowski, a meteorologist with the Philadelphia/Mount Holly office of the National Weather Service, says that even if the eventual path changes, New Jersey will still feel dire effects from what he calls a "very dangerous storm."
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Quoting Chicklit:

I wonder what kind of winds that cam can withstand.

I wonder if it has it's own power source. We might find out Monday/Tuesday
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
omg!!
957.8 mb
(~ 28.28 inHg)
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folks..forget the wind-rain etc..just figure out WHAT you going to do for a week without power and the temps dropping...BUY your supplies TODAY and prepare, please dont get caught off guard ok
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recon just found 957 pressure
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Another friend tweeted this info. Good graph.

Coherent 500 mb (midlevel) warm-core to pinwheel Fujiwhara style in clutches of PV arm/filament.

NCEP GFS 500hPA :

http://t.co/6WbULUTa

Copy and paste link
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Quoting AussieStorm:
New York Cityscape cam from Statue of Liberty.

I wonder what kind of winds that cam can withstand.
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Quoting longislander102:


Luckily I am far enough away from the shoreline. Just north of a category 4 flood zone. But I know some people who do live on the canals. Glad I couldn't afford to buy a house there. (Not even a small one - but that is a whole other topic)....

My worries are the downed trees and power outages.
if the mayors and govs up there order evacs..please let us know ok,hundreds of lurkers going to be here this weekend
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Quoting barbamz:


Ahh, thank you. I was already looking for this beach cam we used to watch during Irene.


yes, great site with a lot of the beaches on the coast of NC..Waves are incredible right now in those views..
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Jersey Shore Cam - Wildwood
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting Chicklit:
The waves, plus full moon high tide, plus rain may put us in another situation (like Isaac) where a CAT 1 becomes more than a CAT 1. Let's just hope in another week that everyone is yelling and screaming that the forecasters (and models) overdid the predictions.
oh yes that would be the best news ever but...
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The HWRF remains on the very northern edge of guidance in its new run, the center is literally over my house on this frame:



GFDL is coming in now, it's been on the southern edge so we'll see if that continues.
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New York Cityscape cam from Statue of Liberty.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
769. dader
Quoting longislander102:


Yes, North of Merrick road. Right on Nassau/Suffolk border.


It won't flood north of Merrick.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
If you believe recon- and I generally do- than Sandy is a hurricane again.

She looks much better than she did earlier. Convection has increased at the coc.
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The waves, plus full moon high tide, plus rain (size of sandy) may put us in another situation (like Isaac) where a CAT 1 becomes more than a CAT 1. Let's just hope in another week that everyone is yelling and screaming that the forecasters (and models) overdid the predictions.
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Quoting dader:


If you are north of Merrick Road there won't be any flooding. South of it will likely be inundated, but it really depends if you are on good ground or not.


Yes, North of Merrick road. Right on Nassau/Suffolk border.
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765. dader
Quoting longislander102:


Luckily I am far enough away from the shoreline. Just north of a category 4 flood zone. But I know some people who do live on the canals. Glad I couldn't afford to buy a house there. (Not even a small one - but that is a whole other topic)....


If you are north of Merrick Road there won't be any flooding. South of it will likely be inundated, but it really depends if you are on good ground or not.
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If you believe recon- and I generally do- than Sandy is a hurricane again.

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Quoting cajunkid:


Keep laughing...lol

If Sandy does what they are predicting, you need to be on high ground early next week.


Luckily I am far enough away from the shoreline. Just north of a category 4 flood zone. But I know some people who do live on the canals. Glad I couldn't afford to buy a house there. (Not even a small one - but that is a whole other topic)....

My worries are the downed trees and power outages.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


HOLY COW!!!!!!





Yep my thought exactly.
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Daylight is approaching Sandy.
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Quoting freeroam:
A friend of mine posted this, good info.

The wavewatch model suggests waves at the coast in a small area may reach 30-36 ft. Other portions of the coast could see breakers as high as 15-21 ft.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/WEB_P/multi_2.la test_run/plots/US_eastcoast.hs.f078h.png


HOLY COW!!!!!!



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting cajunkid:
That is a whole lot of dry air she is eating.


Been going that for at least a full day. I think that saved Florida from a lot of water.. and I am glad.

Mornin' gang!
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Levis HH site is really usefull to follow the findings of the Recon missions.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

You've seen this one.....

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
503 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016&g t;018- VAZ052>057-
281215-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
503 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. THE
ADVISORY WILL INCLUDE ALL WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM SANDY TO TRACK
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING
TOWARD THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
TRACK OF SANDY COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DC-BALTIMORE CORRIDOR WEST TO FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. RISES ON RIVERS COULD CONTINUE FLOODING
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAMAGING WINDS: IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPEARS TO BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW AND A FULL MOON ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. GALE
OR STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR
UPDATES ON THE TRACK OF SANDY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IF
SANDY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND PD IS WHERE THE ACTION IS. I`VE BEEN FCSTG
FOR A LONG TIME AND CAN CERTAINLY AGREE W/ OTHER COMMENTS I`VE HEARD
THAT THIS IS A UNIQUE SITUATION. THE MDLS ARE STILL NOT IN
COMPLETE RESOLUTION REGARDING WHERE SANDY IS GOING TO MAKE
LANDFALL - BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE PHI FCST AREA -
BTWN THE DELMARVA AND N JERSEY. THE E CST IS XPCTG TO SEE A LARGE
AMT OF RAIN FM THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST AMTS WL MOST LKLY
BE OVR NJ/PA WE STILL THINK THERE`S THE PTNL FOR 3-5" IN THE ERN
PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOOKING AT FFG THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN
WOULD ESSENTIALLY BE IN LN W/ THE I-95 DC-BALT METRO CORRIDOR
WHERE 6 HR VALUES ARE GNRLY 2-3`. HOWEVER WE WL BE ISSUING THIS AS
A FLD WTCH (NOT FLASH FLD) GIVEN THE LONG TIMESPAN WHERE MDT/HVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

ONE THING I`VE SEEN IN PAST YRS REGARDING LARGE LOW PRES AREAS SUCH AS
THIS IS THAT THE MDLS HANG ON TO THE LOW LVL MOISTURE/PCPN LONGER
THAN WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURS. I THINK THIS MAY BE THE CASE W/ THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. ONCE THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS NRN
PA/NY STATE A DRY SLOT MAY DVLP IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY LATE TUE
AND WED - THIS IS WHAT THE GFS IS IMPLYING.

I AM STILL HVG TROUBLE GETTING EXCITED OVR SNOWFALL IN THE WRN
PART OF THE CWA AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY N. TEMP-WISE THE GFS
850-1000 THCKNS VALUES ARE GNRLY ABV 1300 M...WHICH DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR SNOW. HV TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW IN GRIDS CLOSE TO
I-81.

MDLS ARE SLOW TO EXIT THE UPR LOW - GFS HAS IT NEAR CYYZ AT 12Z
THU WHILE ECM CENTERS IT NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. EITHER WAY ALTHO MID ATLC WL
STILL BE UNDER COOL CYCLONIC FLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD
BE DRY.
thanks, wish my daughter would get OUT of there and come down here..just wont listen, aww its not going to be that bad...GRRRRRRRR
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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