Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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1142. bwat
Quoting GGNC:


Morehead City, next to the Atlantic Beach bridge here.
Was just there not a month ago replacing that blasted T-Dock next to DMF. It has more steel and bracing in it than anything we have ever installed, I'm interested to see how it fairs Sandy.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 353
1141. LargoFl
well anyway today is florida's day, hope i can get some rain..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
1140. Dsntslp
Quoting dader:


You act like the NorthEast never has to deal with any weather. While we don't deal with tropical storms often, we have winter Nor'Easters with wind, rain, and floods that would rock the Keys like nothing in recent history. Maybe people up here just deal with things with a bit less panic than Floridians.
When you sit in your boarded up house and listen to what sounds like roofers up on the roof nailing nails with a nail gun - and then realize it is your roof nails popping up - and spend the next couple of hours praying that your roof holds - while wind driven rain is being pushed straight in the soffits and down your walls and into your home - and you have your family hunkered in two bathrooms for hours listening and watching the water in the toilet get sucked down the drain from a storm - it changes your life.

When FEMA comes out and checks your roof and then says "Come here, we want to show you something" and they take you in the attic and show you that all of the nails that are supposed to be nailed into the trusses are now sitting right next to the trusses just as pretty as can be - and you are told that with about ten more minutes of sustained winds your roof would have blown off even though almost every shingle is still intact - it changes your life.

When you spend 3 weeks with no power and two weeks with water that is not potable - it changes your life.

I have literally been through more hurricanes than I can count but Frances and Jeanne changed my life and my attitude toward storms. Prepare for the worst and pray for the best. But by GOD please prepare.
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1139. ncstorm
insane..

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What can I expect from Sandy today on the east coast of Florida? Is the worst over? It's still a bit breezy outside
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Quoting dader:


You act like the NorthEast never has to deal with any weather. While we don't deal with tropical storms often, we have winter Nor'Easters with wind, rain, and floods that would rock the Keys like nothing in recent history. Maybe people up here just deal with things with a bit less panic than Floridians.


Yep, I know exactly what a nor'easter can do. And I am well prepared to lose power for as long as takes to get it back. We found that out this summer after the super derecho :) But no one can prepare for this kind of storm, for which we have no known record. You can only be ready to be on your own for quite some time. Many in the north east are just not equipped for that, and will deny that any storm could cause all those problems. I sincerely hope they are correct... but I have visions of the aftermath of Katrina in my head.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1261
1136. LargoFl
Quoting Maryland1:


And that's the real problem. Isabel was a huge storm. This looks like Isabel on steroids.
yes thats what has the experts so worried, and them saying dont look at the center this is huge, and area's far away are going to experience it
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
Waste of a day off here in palm beach county. Driving to the beach later to check out the erosion. Hope everyone up north takes heed and prepares! All of our family is located Maryland north, hoping they're all prepared as well.
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1134. Grothar
The early 12Z model. The models are beginning to cluster between Virginia and New England on each run.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Looking at the Satellite this morning ,it also looks like Haiti is getting pounded this morning in the wrong areas. It most be where this cooler air on the backside is coming around and hitting the hot tropical air and mountain lifting. Oh well sadly before all said and done Sandy may get retired. I guess the big question is what they do with her identity up north.
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Quoting Grothar:
I don't think I have ever seen anything this large

102 hours.




120 hours




And that's the real problem. Isabel was a huge storm. This looks like Isabel on steroids.
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1130. Grothar
Quoting goosegirl1:


Not to over use a term here, but "WOW" I am in the thick of the storm on that model. I have never felt the need for hurricane shutters before now :)


You probably didn't need them before now. Let us hope it is not as bad as it looks.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
What's the shear like north of it?
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From the Talking Heads to our Brothers and Sisters in the NE and Mid-Atlantic; please take the storm and power outages seriously and stock up on non-parishables, batteries, gas, and cash today and tomorrow to get you and your families through the rough patch:

This ain't no party, this ain't no disco,
this ain't no fooling around
This ain't no Mudd Club, or C. B. G. B.'s,
I ain't got time for that now
Heard about Houston? Heard about Detroit?
Heard about Pittsburgh, P. A.?
You oughta know not to stand by the window
somebody might see you up there
I got some groceries, some peanut butter,
to last a couple of days
But I ain't got no speakers, ain't got no
headphones, ain't got no records to play


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1127. LargoFl
NAEFS model at 120 hours, still sitting there, blasting away
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
1126. guygee
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I know, but the word 'Franken' implies it's dead and coming back from the grave.

Quoting Hoff511:

No Franken is more of something created by piecing together a lot different strange parts

Both.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
People here in D.C aren't really worried to much and some don't even know a storm is coming.There asking "Sandy who,what?".


Actually, can't say I'm terribly surprised. What with satellite tv these days, there are people who spend all their time watching junk on tv, and changing the channel when anything news related comes on. And these same people nary look at a newspaper, unless it's like National Enquirer. A lot of people have no interest in what's going on around them. I work with a lot of people who are the same. They can tell you all the sports scores and who won some reality tv show, but something coming in the weather or some big news story, no clue at all.

Anyway, I hope your party goes on :/ When I saw the forecast turn in further south, thought of you talking about it. (and yes I know, there's more than Wash's party being ruined at stake).
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Another example of insane wind radii—Buoy 41002 currently reporting 36 mph sustained winds 410 miles from the center of Sandy!

Don't let the ugly satellite appearance fool you. This thing is transitioning into the kind of hybrid storm the models have been forecasting, with lower central winds but an absurd wind field.
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1123. Grothar
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Anyone see the new GFDL 06Z run. Very frigtening. It has Sandy sitting over D.C. for two days, barely moving.

Link

That and the trajectory this storm is forecasted to barrel into the coast makes flooding a very severe risk.


It is supposed to stay around for awhile up there. Usually, these things move quickly. It looks like a 3 or 4 day event.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know, but the word 'Franken' implies it's dead and coming back from the grave.


Um . . I think it's meant to imply that Sandy will become a monster.
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1121. guygee
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know, but the word 'Franken' implies it's dead and coming back from the grave.
That will be accurate if models hold, because from the looks of Sandy right now she has been blown out of shape and no longer looks like a typical "classic" 'cane.
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1120. LargoFl
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Anyone see the new GFDL 06Z run. Very frigtening. It has Sandy sitting over D.C. for two days, barely moving.

Link

That and the trajectory this storm is forecasted to barrel into the coast makes flooding a very severe risk.
yes i saw that, and last night i saw the hurricane pushing the sea inland, but at the same time that HIGH up by canada border was also pushing the water into the coastline, so BOTH add to the flooding..wow, this is going to be bad, and if you have ever been to DC you know there are alot of inlets there, almost surrounded by water..which is why in summer itsso humid there..flooding is going to be really bad..i really hope this does not happen but....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
1119. Hoff511
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know, but the word 'Franken' implies it's dead and coming back from the grave.

No Franken is more of something created by piecing together a lot different strange parts
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1118. Grothar
GFS ensemble.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:
I don't think I have ever seen anything this large

102 hours.




120 hours




Not to over use a term here, but "WOW" I am in the thick of the storm on that model. I have never felt the need for hurricane shutters before now :)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1261
1116. ncstorm
AP JEFF TODD

Hurricane Sandy pounds Bahamas; death toll at 21

NASSAU, Bahamas -- Hurricane Sandy raged through the Bahamas early Friday after leaving 21 people dead across the Caribbean, following a path that could see it blend with a winter storm and reach the U.S. East Coast as a super-storm next week.

Sandy knocked out power, flooded roads and cut off islands in the storm-hardened Bahamas as it swirled past Cat Island and Eleuthera, but authorities reported no deaths in the scattered archipelago.

Related Photos
The Wrath of Hurricane Sandy
View all 39 photos
"Generally people are realizing it is serious," said Caroline Turnquest, head of the Red Cross in the Bahamas, who said 20 shelters were opened on the main island of New Providence.

Sandy, which weakened to a category 1 hurricane Thursday night, caused havoc in Cuba early in the day, killing 11 people in eastern Santiago and Guantanamo provinces as its howling winds and rain toppled houses and ripped off roofs. Authorities said it was Cuba's deadliest storm since July 2005, when category 5 Hurricane Dennis killed 16 people and caused $2.4 billion in damage.
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1115. GGNC
Quoting air360:


Looks like between obxlocal in NE NC coast, myself in mid NC coast, and ncstorm in SE NC we have NC pretty well covered haha


Morehead City, next to the Atlantic Beach bridge here.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The word storm includes both a tropical storm and hurricane.


I know, but the word 'Franken' implies it's dead and coming back from the grave.
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1113. dader
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't get why they're calling it 'Frankenstorm' as per the latest NHC forecast, Sandy is going to be still a hurricane when it hits the coast, with 80mph winds.


I actually think its a positive that the media is using this moniker or saying it will be "a hurricane heading into a nor'easters ***." Hurricanes tend to have a boy who cried wolf effect because while they scare many, its core effects are very focused and often sporadic. A storm like this spreading out, could spread near or at hurricane force winds to a very large swath, combined with an incredibly high tide and severe erosion. Here on Long Island, we don't scoff at Irene like people in MD or VA do. But we all remember the nor'easters that have done substantial damage.
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1112. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210

Quoting ecrugger:


Chesapeake, VA here.


Virginia Beach, VA here

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1109. Grothar
I don't think I have ever seen anything this large

102 hours.




120 hours


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't get why they're calling it 'Frankenstorm' as per the latest NHC forecast, Sandy is going to be still a hurricane when it hits the coast, with 80mph winds.


I think because even though it may have winds of hurricane force and a fairly warm core at landfall it will still be getting some of its energy from baroclinic processes. Right now it's already looking hybrid and I feel at landfall it's going to be in the shade of grey range b/w post tropical, subtropical, and a hurricane.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't get why they're calling it 'Frankenstorm' as per the latest NHC forecast, Sandy is going to be still a hurricane when it hits the coast, with 80mph winds.

The word storm includes both a tropical storm and hurricane.
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1106. LargoFl
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST NORTH NORTHEAST TO WELL EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS BY SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...VERY STRONG WINDS...COASTAL
FLOODING...HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS SWELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AS WELL AS IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME OF
IMPACT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR DETAILS REGARDING SANDY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
Here's a link to storms landfalling to the VA/DC area:
Link

Maybe that will get some people thinking a bit about what is possible.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1261
neo i stopped cutting down trees a couple yrs ago woops i meant reading the newspaper.
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Don't get why they're calling it 'Frankenstorm' as per the latest NHC forecast, Sandy is going to be still a hurricane when it hits the coast, with 80mph winds.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
People here in D.C aren't really worried to much and some don't even know a storm is coming.There asking "Sandy who,what?".
By this point, it would take a pretty out-of-touch person to not be aware that something may be coming. For instance, the front page of today's Washington Post makes it hard to miss:

WP

There'll always be people coming out of the woodwork after any event to claim they knew nothing of it. But, generally-speaking, very few people in the area who have access to a newspaper, radio, TV, computer, or telephone--or know someone who does--can honestly exclaim, "What was that?!"
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1101. LargoFl
Quoting Maryland1:
I have to agree with you, i also hope this turns away out to sea..but listening to the experts, this doesnt seem to whats going to happen..stay safe ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
1099. guygee
Quoting washingtonian115:
People here in D.C aren't really worried to much and some don't even know a storm is coming.There asking "Sandy who,what?".
Tell'em, "Sandy Beach". Maybe they will go check for themselves, and then wonder about your accent.
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FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
726 AM AST FRI OCT 26 2012

PRC001-013-065-141-261715-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0036.121026T1126Z-121026T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-UTUADO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-
726 AM AST FRI OCT 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
ADJUNTAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ADJUNTAS...
ARECIBO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ARECIBO...
HATILLO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
UTUADO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF UTUADO...

* UNTIL 115 PM AST FRIDAY

* AT 714 AM AST USGS RIVER SENSORS ALONG THE ARECIBO BASIN HAS
INDICATED THAT THE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ALONG ITS LENGTH FROM
ADJUNTAS...RIO CAONILLAS DOWNSTREAM TO DOS BOCAS...THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. MINOR
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRIBUTARIES OF THE RIO GRANDE DE
ARECIBO AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6666 1846 6665 1831 6662 1812 6674
1819 6681 1850 6678 1848 6674

$$

AAS
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1096. guygee
Quoting aspectre:
...If Sandy continues its curvature over the previous 24hours for the rest of Friday, there's gonna be some mighty annoyed Floridians between Titusville(TIX)CapeCanaveral and PalmBeach(PBI). ...
Yeah she looks to be coming even a little more west than the last west adjustment. OTOH, the shear is taking its toll blowing a lot of the weather to the NE and a dry slot is working its way up the coast. So hopefully not too much more annoyed then I planned on.
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1095. air360
Quoting ecrugger:


Chesapeake, VA here.


I lived in the greenbrier area of Chesapeake for 6 months a few years back...real nice placed..i liked it a lot
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

You head the official warning from authorities, the NWS or NOAA, not a weather blog where folks come together from all walks of life to share their stories and views on what might be Frankstorm.


Our local NWS forecast in northern Virginia, near DC, is still calling for a 60% chance of rain with less than an inch of total precipitation. It's no wonder people aren't getting worried yet.
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trees in cuba were stripped bare a sign of a major hurricane
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Quoting WXHAMVA:


SE Virgina here ... near VA Beach


Chesapeake, VA here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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