Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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1292. LargoFl
here's an Alert..................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-261530-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
930 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...STRONG GUSTS WITH SQUALLS...

THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE THE COAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
TO 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH PASSING SQUALLS NEAR THE EAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR STRONG GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SQUALLS
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE SQUALLS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AND A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO
FALL...BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS AND MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting TomballTXPride:

It's a fancy way of saying AGW is in charge, not mother nature. Some things will never change. But that's alright.
--There'll be claims from some that Frankensandy is absolute proof of global warming. There'll be claims from others that global warming has nothing to do with Frankensandy. They'll both be wrong.????Seems you're baiting again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Question: What's the chance of Lake effect snow around the great lakes area from Sandy+Front? Could it happen?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Question: is it too early to call this a fish storm?

Just asking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Beaches here in Indialantic( east central Florida-- think shuttle launches) are holding up pretty well so far. The sandbars are going to be rearranged after this storm that is for sure. Wind is steady at about 40 MPH at the beach. Waves are breaking on the outside about 1/4 mile out, which is pretty far for (Beach Break type surf) All the ducks in the pond at my condo are loving it though!!!
Video of conditions at 10 am


http://youtu.be/F17DYzcnla8
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1287. yoboi
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Yep. Something tells me somebody has never been in a really cold place during a storm. There are things you can't really "layer" out of.

Cool, sure. Cold, especially wet and cold? Um, no.

Do note, folks, that if you have no heat, and it's wet out, the most insulating fabrics (that most people probably have on hand) while wet are wool and silk. Cotton is _terrible_ in the wet and cold, cover yourself in wool if you can. And long silk underwear = best investment evah, the stuff I had as a teenager is still wearable, worth the cash.


i think someone invented matches a few yrs back and ya can always find something to burn....been in extreme cold and heat without electricity with extreme heat not much ya can do to stay cool....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting suzi46:
Quoting Comment#1218:

~~So you all watch out.If any good comes out of this I hope it's a sign of awesome nor'easters to come this winter.~~

Really??? I personally don't wish for ANYMORE of this type of storm to hit ANYWHERE..death, misery, and destruction are not things I think are AWESOME! :(
Oh lord another person that thinks I want death and destruction..>>..Seems I have to set the record straight AGAIN!.Awesome nor'easters as in some pretty good snows for my area.We've been in a snow drought and for us snow lovers that is a big no no.I'm looking forward to possibly a snowy winter.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Jeebus, people, I thought that was actually a very measured and not very targeted post from Nea. Y'all are reading in whatever you want, just to get pissed off. Most of it wasn't even about global warming or anything to do with.

And I swear, this has been the longest October ever, so I've kept skipping ahead to November, too. Maybe it's the elections. Can't be over with fast enough, IMO.
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1284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1283. sar2401
Quoting stormchaser19:
Here in Dominican Republic have 72 hours continues of heavy rain...22,000 people evacuated 1,149 houses affected a lot of roads and bridges destroyed and..... Sandy passed at least 300 mile west of the country...


Here is the link in spanish
Link


Glad to hear you're OK. Both the DR and Haiti were on the strong side of the storm. What do you hear coming out of Haiti? So far, we're hearing only nine dead, which seems unusually low, given the amount of damage and destruction in the DR.
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Quoting ncstorm:


chuck, Im assuming you are talking about the cold front..my question is If Sandy is beginning the transition to a hybrid system and really deepens, wouldnt that lessen the effects of the cold front pushing her to right?


Here is the 12 Z NAM initialization, fresh out. The NAM is good to use here when showing the trough over the midwest. See that shortwave over southern Colorado, that will "create" the push needed to "kick" Sandy north the eventually northeast for a while. This and a few other vort maxes is what will cause the trough to become negative. If it wasn't for that, then Sandy probably would be making landfall somewhere between the OBX and Jacksonville.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is the 12 Z NAM initialization, fresh out. The NAM is good to use here when showing the trough over the midwest. See that shortwave over southern Colorado, that will "create" the push needed to "kick" Sandy north the eventually northeast for a while. This and a few other vort maxes is what will cause the trough to become negative. If it wasn't for that, then Sandy probably would be making landfall somewhere between the OBX and Jacksonville.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1280. LargoFl
and this..is whats coming
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
1279. suzi46
Quoting Comment#1218:

~~So you all watch out.If any good comes out of this I hope it's a sign of awesome nor'easters to come this winter.~~

Really??? I personally don't wish for ANYMORE of this type of storm to hit ANYWHERE..death, misery, and destruction are not things I think are AWESOME! :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Euro makes it snow in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennesee, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, NE GA mountains, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.



The highest snow totals are in the West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, and Virginia area.

If the ECMWF stayed stronger inland like every other model, it would be worse with the snow.
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1277. LargoFl
Quoting Josihua2:

think thats a smart! weather this year has proven to be on the weird side! anything can happen!
it sure has been weird alright
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting guygee:
Unless it is freezing with two feet of snow...


Yep. Something tells me somebody has never been in a really cold place during a storm. There are things you can't really "layer" out of.

Cool, sure. Cold, especially wet and cold? Um, no.

Do note, folks, that if you have no heat, and it's wet out, the most insulating fabrics (that most people probably have on hand) while wet are wool and silk. Cotton is _terrible_ in the wet and cold, cover yourself in wool if you can. And long silk underwear = best investment evah, the stuff I had as a teenager is still wearable, worth the cash.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1275. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting LargoFl:
your so right, where I live, when a hurricane is in the gulf say...people around me say..dont worry..hurricane dont come to the tampa area..they always go somewhere else..well for the last 25 years or more since Ive been here..that has sort of proven true BUT..I myself know..it WILL happen someday and i always prepare regardless..and endure the smirks lol,,but I know..Im ready

think thats a smart move! weather this year has proven to be on the weird side! anything can happen!
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1273. guygee
Quoting Inyo:


The general crappiness of the weather in DC seems to me proof that HAARP weather control is nonsense... Aside from the other 59 reasons.
My son and his friend were yelling at each other a couple days ago, so I checked to see what was wrong...his friend was trying to push the weather mod theory and my son was telling him he was nuts.
Sometimes when that "proud father" feeling kicks in it feels like the whole thing was worthwhile after all, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1272. bwat
FYI: Doctor Masters and WU where quoted in The Wall Street Journal. "It's looking like a very serious storm that could be historic," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground. "Mother Nature is not saying, 'Trick or treat.' It's just going to give tricks.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 353
1271. sar2401
Quoting Neapolitan:
Human nature being what it is, here's my own predication:

--Some people in some places are going to get less rain and wind than predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how the storm was hyped by broadcasters for TV ratings, and by the government to divert people's attention away the upcoming election, and by forecasters to justify their jobs, and so on. They'll be wrong.

--Other people in other places are going to get more rain and wind that predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how the storm was underplayed by broadcasters so they could air their own money-making shows, and by the government because they didn't wish to scare people in the face of the upcoming election, and by forecasters who didn't want to lose their jobs for "overhyping", and so on. They'll be wrong, too.

--Still other people in still other places are going to get precisely as much rain and wind as predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how they don't understand all those complaining that the storm was hyper or underplayed, and that TV networks, the government, and forecasters are infallible and should never be questioned. They, too, will be wrong.

--There'll be claims from some that heavy snows on the west side of Frankensandy are proof that the planet isn't warming. They'll be wrong.

--There'll be claims from some that Frankensandy is absolute proof of global warming. There'll be claims from others that global warming has nothing to do with Frankensandy. They'll both be wrong.

--Gas prices will be artificially inflated for a time after the storm. Some will claim this was done intentionally to help the incumbent in the presidential race; others will claim it was done intentionally to hurt that incumbent. They'll also both be wrong.

--There'll be those (I've seen some already) who swear that the lack of landfalling hurricanes all year followed by the sudden appearance of one just a week before the election is surefire proof that the incumbent administration used HAARP to modify the weather so they can perhaps declare martial law and postpone the election. They'll be wrong.

--There'll be some who declare that such a storm striking at the end of November is evidence that some supreme supernatural being is unhappy with Halloween celebrations. They'll be wrong.

Sigh...

Nea, there are times you and I politely disagree (I hope), but I am 100% agreement with this one. Write it down for the record books. This should be a sticky every time we have a storm, with appropriate adjustments for the type of storm. Only one little niggle. The Supreme Being still has Halloween at the end of October rather than November. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1270. LargoFl
Quoting stormchaser19:
Here in Dominican Republic have 72 hours continues of heavy rain...22,000 people evacuated 1,149 houses affected a lot of roads and bridges destroyed and..... Sandy passed at least 300 mile west of the country...


Here is the link in spanish
Link
wow..glad you made it thru all that..geez
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Setting folks off before the real storm. Like people don't already have enough to worry about. Yeah, that's great.


Quoting TomballTXPride:

It's a fancy way of saying AGW is in charge, not mother nature. Some things will never change. But that's alright.


You have a problem with Neapolitan, and you intentionally antagonize him, needle him, and passive-aggressively whine about almost every single one of his posts when you happen to be on at the same time, regardless of merit. It's distracting, it's childish, and it needs to stop.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


What a load of.......
I swear you like to sound of your own voice sometimes. Halloween is 31st October. I would be surprised if you didn't say that Sandy and the snow she may bring isn't down partly to global warming since SST's are above normal up the USA east coast.


You forgot "man-made" in front of global warming.

sound of your own voice LOL, that's classic.

Minimum central pressures generally indicate storm strength.
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Here in Dominican Republic have 72 hours continues of heavy rain...22,000 people evacuated 1,149 houses affected a lot of roads and bridges destroyed and..... Sandy passed at least 300 mile west of the country...


Here is the link in spanish
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting airChrist:


I was in the same boat until the models kept coming in with these sci-fi central pressures.
Lol next big sci-fi disaster movie will be called "The perfect storm two Mid-atlantic style".

Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting Neapolitan:
Human nature being what it is, here's my own predication:

--Some people in some places are going to get less rain and wind than predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how the storm was hyped by broadcasters for TV ratings, and by the government to divert people's attention away the upcoming election, and by forecasters to justify their jobs, and so on. They'll be wrong.

--Other people in other places are going to get more rain and wind that predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how the storm was underplayed by broadcasters so they could air their own money-making shows, and by the government because they didn't wish to scare people in the face of the upcoming election, and by forecasters who didn't want to lose their jobs for "overhyping", and so on. They'll be wrong, too.

--Still other people in still other places are going to get precisely as much rain and wind as predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how they don't understand all those complaining that the storm was hyper or underplayed, and that TV networks, the government, and forecasters are infallible and should never be questioned. They, too, will be wrong.

--There'll be claims from some that heavy snows on the west side of Frankensandy are proof that the planet isn't warming. They'll be wrong.

--There'll be claims from some that Frankensandy is absolute proof of global warming. There'll be claims from others that global warming has nothing to do with Frankensandy. They'll both be wrong.

--Gas prices will be artificially inflated for a time after the storm. Some will claim this was done intentionally to help the incumbent in the presidential race; others will claim it was done intentionally to hurt that incumbent. They'll also both be wrong.

--There'll be those (I've seen some already) who swear that the lack of landfalling hurricanes all year followed by the sudden appearance of one just a week before the election is surefire proof that the incumbent administration used HAARP to modify the weather so they can perhaps declare martial law and postpone the election. They'll be wrong.

--There'll be some who declare that such a storm striking at the end of November is evidence that some supreme supernatural being is unhappy with Halloween celebrations. They'll be wrong.

Sigh...


Let's keep Shakespeare out of the topic...I did get anything you said...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1264. ncstorm
Quoting Chucktown:
Sandy's NW movement will be coming to an end very shortly. Look on the left side of your screen.

Link


chuck, Im assuming you are talking about the cold front..my question is If Sandy is beginning the transition to a hybrid system and really deepens, wouldnt that lessen the effects of the cold front pushing her to right?
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1263. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WOCN31 CWHX 261145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8:41 AM ADT Friday
26 October 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.

For hurricane Sandy.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

This is an updated preliminary information statement to discuss
The potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada. An updated
Statement is planned for 3 PM ADT.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy will be moving through the Bahamas today with winds
in excess of 120 km/h. During the weekend Sandy is forecast to track
northward while remaining at or near hurricane strength. Sandy will
begin to lose some of its tropical characteristics during the next
two days, it will however remain a large and powerful cyclone as it
shifts toward the East Coast of the United States.

Sandy will quite likely impact parts of Eastern Canada early next
week. The track and intensity will, as always, depend on many
changing factors over a period of several days. Thus, it is too
early to meaningfully state how the storm will affect particular
areas. At this point in time we encourage consulting the forecasts
periodically during the weekend.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1262. LargoFl
Quoting SSideBrac:
Having gone through many TSs and Hurricanes,including some Majors, I would NEVER want anyone to have to go through those "before, during and after" adrenaline levels and sometimes - often - just sheer stinking exhaustion and worry.

However, I have a significant anxiety that if this does NOT develop into the "Frankenstorm" that the "pundits" are discussing, then the cynicism and complacency among some of those living in NE USA is likely to become massive - and, guess what - it is not "a case of "IF" but rather "WHEN" for a significant Hurricane Impact in that area.

Please do NOT read this as wishing a Storm on the NE USA.
your so right, where I live, when a hurricane is in the gulf say...people around me say..dont worry..hurricane dont come to the tampa area..they always go somewhere else..well for the last 25 years or more since Ive been here..that has sort of proven true BUT..I myself know..it WILL happen someday and i always prepare regardless..and endure the smirks lol,,but I know..Im ready
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Sorry to hear about the effects of the excess rain there. I would not want the drought to come back though, with the stress on wildlife and the aquifer depletion. Plus, Florida is a much prettier place with regular rains.

Here in Orlando, we received a couple brief showers from Sandy on Wednesday and a few good squalls with heavy rains yesterday. This was the first rain at my house in more than 2 weeks. Not that much wind.


Believe it or not the last drought likely saved Okeechobee Lake. It is so full of pollutants, legend pollutants in the silt, that it was dying from algae blooms and hypoxia. The low levels increased the littoral zone allowing plants to take up and use the legend phosphorus and nitrogen in the newly exposed silt, while the organics oxidize.

Without sugar obstructing the management of water, and water quality standards for citizens and the ecosystems WE own this could become a management practice to expedite the cleansing of the lake water. As it stands right now, it is illegal to send any Okeechobee Lake water into the Florida everglades, where it has gone for 5000 years because it is too polluted. The very essence of the glades was changing because cattails were taking over the sawgrass in the nutrient rich soup being sent south. The Miccosukee Indians had to sue them to save the glades. So now, they send the water out the St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee estuaries through MAN made connects and kill them instead.

Our elected officials PAY them to do this to us.

It was about these unnatural discharges that we protested last night at S-80, the St. Lucie Locks and damn.
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1260. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST October 26 2012
====================================

a low pressure area would develop over south Andaman sea during next 24 hours.

A low pressure area may develop over southeast Arabian Sea around October 30th.
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1259. barbamz
HH: Turn to the northeast has happened.
New Vortex reading with
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.76 inHg) - Extrapolated
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Warm Gulf Stream could provide shot of energy for Sandy



There are many factors involved with what will ultimately shape the intensity and track of Sandy as it affects the Eastern Seaboard over the next few days. One of these factors is the location and strength of the Gulf Stream.

Take a look at the graphic. You can clearly see the outline of the current position and temperature of the Gulf Stream. Sandy’s forecast track has been added to the graphic but this is just the center location forecast. Sandy is obviously a huge hurricane and will have its circulation over a great deal of warm water for the next several days.

Then, the track will actually cross a portion of the Gulf Stream before Sandy heads for the coastline. All of this heat energy, water temps in the low 80s, will add fuel to aid in the deep convection of Sandy that, combined with upper level energy being injected from the massive trough digging in, should lead to a period of intensification before landfall.

The main thing to consider is to not focus on “what” Sandy is structurally. Sure it’s fascinating from a meteorological perspective but the result is practically the same: there will be wind, rain and surge that will affect millions of people. That’s the bottom line no matter what Sandy is called in the end.

The warm waters of the Caribbean gave rise to this enormous storm and now the western Atlantic and its Gulf Stream could provide the last piece of energy needed to energize Sandy once more before it makes a run for the coast.

Link




great post... i forgot aout the warm gulf stream..... However if Sandy keeps getting sheared its worthless anyway for re-intensification
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Human nature being what it is, here's my own predication:

--Some people in some places are going to get less rain and wind than predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how the storm was hyped by broadcasters for TV ratings, and by the government to divert people's attention away the upcoming election, and by forecasters to justify their jobs, and so on. They'll be wrong.

--Other people in other places are going to get more rain and wind that predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how the storm was underplayed by broadcasters so they could air their own money-making shows, and by the government because they didn't wish to scare people in the face of the upcoming election, and by forecasters who didn't want to lose their jobs for "overhyping", and so on. They'll be wrong, too.

--Still other people in still other places are going to get precisely as much rain and wind as predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how they don't understand all those complaining that the storm was hyper or underplayed, and that TV networks, the government, and forecasters are infallible and should never be questioned. They, too, will be wrong.

--There'll be claims from some that heavy snows on the west side of Frankensandy are proof that the planet isn't warming. They'll be wrong.

--There'll be claims from some that Frankensandy is absolute proof of global warming. There'll be claims from others that global warming has nothing to do with Frankensandy. They'll both be wrong.

--Gas prices will be artificially inflated for a time after the storm. Some will claim this was done intentionally to help the incumbent in the presidential race; others will claim it was done intentionally to hurt that incumbent. They'll also both be wrong.

--There'll be those (I've seen some already) who swear that the lack of landfalling hurricanes all year followed by the sudden appearance of one just a week before the election is surefire proof that the incumbent administration used HAARP to modify the weather so they can perhaps declare martial law and postpone the election. They'll be wrong.

--There'll be some who declare that such a storm striking at the end of November is evidence that some supreme supernatural being is unhappy with Halloween celebrations. They'll be wrong.

Sigh...


What a load of.......
I swear you like to sound of your own voice sometimes. Halloween is 31st October. I would be surprised if you didn't say that Sandy and the snow she may bring isn't down partly to global warming since SST's are above normal up the USA east coast.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
1256. guygee
Quoting yoboi:


4 days without electricity in cool weather not as bad as in hott weather when it's hot ya cant strip past naked, when cold weather can always add clothes....
Unless it is freezing with two feet of snow...
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1255. ncstorm
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Setting folks off before the real storm. Like people don't already have enough to worry about. Yeah, that's great.


I agree..you see how he threw in all the arguing points again that sets this blog off...can we JUST give it a break until AFTER Sandy threat is over..Im begging HERE!! lol..
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Join the club.People aren't taking it serious here.I'm still skeptical though about a sub 950mbr system crashing into the coast.Sandy I believe will go north of me(hopefully).So you all watch out.If any good comes out of this I hope it's a sign of awesome nor'easters to come this winter.


I was in the same boat until the models kept coming in with these sci-fi central pressures.
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Reminds me of Irene with dry air dissolving the convection on the bottom half of Sandy...
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Sandy's NW movement will be coming to an end very shortly. Look on the left side of your screen.

Link
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1251. LargoFl
Quoting Inyo:


In Southern California during the big El Niño floods of the 90s I remember seeing gulls standing in the school fields before some of the storms. We were five miles from the ocean. When we saw them in great numbers we knew that was going to be a big storm.

As for Sandy, here in Vermont it looks like less rain than Irene (THANK GOD) but more wind. It all depends on the track now. We are actually going to NYC this weekend but leaving early Sunday morning. In Irene we were driving north to beat the storm through the spiral bands at 11 pm in drenching rains and fog. In the worst of the squall the smell of ocean brine filled the car. We were on a mountain pass a hundred miles from the coast.

I guess my point is... If you are far from the sea and see unusual gull numbers or smell the ocean... You're in for a whopper of a storm.
yes my dad told me that when i was a young boy..when a storm as is approaching..watch the animals and especially the birds
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36903
Quoting Neapolitan:
Human nature being what it is, here's my own predication:

--Some people in some places are going to get less rain and wind than predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how the storm was hyped by broadcasters for TV ratings, and by the government to divert people's attention away the upcoming election, and by forecasters to justify their jobs, and so on. They'll be wrong.

--Other people in other places are going to get more rain and wind that predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how the storm was underplayed by broadcasters so they could air their own money-making shows, and by the government because they didn't wish to scare people in the face of the upcoming election, and by forecasters who didn't want to lose their jobs for "overhyping", and so on. They'll be wrong, too.

--Still other people in still other places are going to get precisely as much rain and wind as predicted. Many of those people will spend the next several weeks complaining how they don't understand all those complaining that the storm was hyper or underplayed, and that TV networks, the government, and forecasters are infallible and should never be questioned. They, too, will be wrong.

--There'll be claims from some that heavy snows on the west side of Frankensandy are proof that the planet isn't warming. They'll be wrong.

--There'll be claims from some that Frankensandy is absolute proof of global warming. There'll be claims from others that global warming has nothing to do with Frankensandy. They'll both be wrong.

--Gas prices will be artificially inflated for a time after the storm. Some will claim this was done intentionally to help the incumbent in the presidential race; others will claim it was done intentionally to hurt that incumbent. They'll also both be wrong.

--There'll be those (I've seen some already) who swear that the lack of landfalling hurricanes all year followed by the sudden appearance of one just a week before the election is surefire proof that the incumbent administration used HAARP to modify the weather so they can perhaps declare martial law and postpone the election. They'll be wrong.

--There'll be some who declare that such a storm striking at the end of November is evidence that some supreme supernatural being is unhappy with Halloween celebrations. They'll be wrong.

Sigh...


I think you're wrong about all this. *wink*
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Having gone through many TSs and Hurricanes,including some Majors, I would NEVER want anyone to have to go through those "before, during and after" adrenaline levels and sometimes - often - just sheer stinking exhaustion and worry.

However, I have a significant anxiety that if this does NOT develop into the "Frankenstorm" that the "pundits" are discussing, then the cynicism and complacency among some of those living in NE USA is likely to become massive - and, guess what - it is not "a case of "IF" but rather "WHEN" for a significant Hurricane Impact in that area.

Please do NOT read this as wishing a Storm on the NE USA.
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1248. suzi46
~~Quoting Neapolitan:
Human nature being what it is, here's my own predication:
~~

excerpt cc: from Comment#1204...

thankyou for the BEST comment I've read ANYWHERE in a Blog in a long time!!! truer words were never written..LOL..LOVED IT!! :)
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Quoting charlestonscnanny:


Chucktown, what can we expect in Summerville?


Not a lot, just a few gusty showers tomorrow. Sunday looks fantastic with sunshine and 73. The biggest impact for us here in the Lowcountry, will be the cold air that wraps around Sandy. We will struggle to get out of the 50s on Tuesday, and some areas well inland near I-95 will dip down into the mid 30s Tuesday night.
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Goosegirl I don't think it'll be was bad here in D.C as it as for Katrina if the storm were to park it's self over D.C.

Little known fact for people D.C has levels and is below sea level in some parts.

Some of you may be happy to know that the places that are below sea level are where the politicans meet every day.The capital supreme court and white house.

Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting barbamz:


Sheri, just watch this old TWC-Video from the 1991 perfect storm, which has been posted yesterday by someone. It explains and shows the merging of two very different systems (Ex-Hurricane and a sort of Nor'easter) very well. This is forecastet to happen in a similar way now, but more inland unfortunately.


Barbamz, Thanks for posting that, I understand better.

sheri
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Quoting K8eCane:



Chuck you might get some overtime. Im wondering whether you want it? LOL


Actually, this is a best case scenario for the South Carolina coast. We need rain desperately, over 6 inches down for the year. We may have a few coastal issues and some minor flooding downtown around high tide tomorrow, but welcome the inch of rain that is forecast. We have a conference call with Charleston NWS at 11:30 for Sandy expectations.
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1243. Grothar
Quoting airChrist:
Haven't posted in years, but I am a big-time lurker. This blog has provided me with countless vital info over the years. I have always been the go-to weather guru in my family. Now I can back it up. So thanks everyone.

This one coming my way. I am from eastern Long Island. My office is in Patchogue.

As of now, I'm thinking it will be like a strong Nor'easter here, but hoping the GFS doesn't verify. People up here don't seem to understand what we could be facing. At its worst, this storm could create new inlets on the south shore, and decimate beaches. The coastal flooding could be awful.

But for some reason, when I try to warn people, I get the standard, "it'll just be rain."


By the way it is coming in, the North Shore could have water being pushed in from the west and piling up on the North Shore and Connecticut side. Although, the outer islands could be devastated and the areas in the Great South Bay could have serious flooding.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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