Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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1342. Bayside
Sandy is being sheared quite a lot. How do the models do after a storm goes post or extra-tropical? So much of the models seems to depend on tropical characteristics, when those are lost, can the models be considered accurate? Is Sandy going to lose her center of circulation soon, what then?

TIA
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Quoting Chicklit:

This is not what the models are saying.
An explanation is in order.
Where's Doctor Masters?!


right.. I want to hear from him
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Even though Sandy is "only" a Cat. 1, REMEMBER Irene did plenty of damage as a "just" Tropical Storm at and after landfall.
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TWC is calling this historic...the all-time storm to come!
WTF??? we know it's bad..stop doing that

this is like propaganda of some sort
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Quoting oracle28:


Weakening is a good thing. Maybe it will dissipate.

This is not what the models are saying.
An explanation is in order.
Where's Doctor Masters?!
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1337. LargoFl


000
WTNT23 KNHC 260842
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0900 UTC FRI OCT 26 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 76.9W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......240NE 180SE 80SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 180SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 76.9W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.2N 77.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 120SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 170SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.7N 76.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 130SW 140NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 170NW.
34 KT...360NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...380NE 330SE 300SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 38.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 76.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36868
I don't know why here some people talk about the worst to come but are afraid at the same time...
come on...chill!
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Dry air and shear
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
Getting a little nervous here about staying on a barrier island in south NJ new AC. Stayed last year with irene but didnt have any bad weather. This storm i think much worse will unfold. For now i am staying and the rest of the family is going inland but this could change. very worried about a storm surge over 8 feet

Whatever you do, don't leave it to late to go, make sure if your going to stay your prepared if not, just go. Your life is worth more than a house.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Sandy looks blown to smithereens


Weakening is a good thing. Maybe it will dissipate.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


What a load of.......
I swear you like to sound of your own voice sometimes. Halloween is 31st October. I would be surprised if you didn't say that Sandy and the snow she may bring isn't down partly to global warming since SST's are above normal up the USA east coast.

Folk what Nea wrote was FUNNY. He has a very wicked, dry sense of humor. I laughed right out loud and nearly spit my coffee! Relax and just go with the flow. Yep, he can get serious, but this was funny sarcasm at its finest, and maybe a little bit of truth thrown in to make you think about things. The "election" part was just tooo hilarious. Thanks, again, Nea for the good giggle this morning. Wet and windy here in S Fl, but looks like nothing compared to what could be cooking up for the NE. Prayers for you all up there.
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1331. Dsntslp
Quoting guygee:
I've read historical accounts of people living in Florida before air conditioning was invented and became affordable.

Seriously, I can cool off in the ocean, and if you are not near the ocean you can get your hose and pour it over your head.
This assumes that the lift stations are working and the water is potable and not FOS. Here, the water is always contaminated after a big storm. We put tape over all of the water spigots in the house to remind people not to use them. How easy it is to forget and brush your teeth and end up with shigella, giardia or worse.


But yes, we have a pool and as long as it does not have any intrusive flooding we can cool off in that. Part of storm prep here is stocking up on pool chemicals so that water can at least be used for bathing and flushing - provided that the pool is not full of glass of course.
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This is very sad. A perfect Storm scenario. I will have all of you up north in my prayers. I would advise that fishermen up there watch the movie The Perfect Storm, to avoid becomming the next Andrea Gale.
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
Quoting yoboi:


more heat related deaths in the usa than people freezing to death.....it's a fact


LOL... yes, when people generally have functional heaters, that's possibly true.

Think whatever you want. This is silly.
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Sandy looks blown to smithereens
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1326. bwat
Quoting yoboi:


been thru hurricanes here in la and most times no water in the hose due to the water system down and good luck trying to get into a ocean or any waterway after a storm because rip current is bad with receeding water....there are more heat related deaths than people freezing to death every yr in the USA...


Dying from excessive heat, or hypothermia.....I choose neither. So, lets close the book on this topic and move back to the tropics.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 353
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
914 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION FOR THE UPCOMING COASTAL STORM...

THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT A STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK
CLOSE TO THE TRI STATE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT TROPICAL
SYSTEM SANDY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME OF ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO US...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA COULD BE FELT AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. NOW IS THE TIME
TO START PLANNING FOR THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

STAY INFORMED BY MONITORING THE LATEST HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
ADVISORIES IN ADDITION TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL
FORECASTS. LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION REPORTS...AS WELL AS NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TO GET THE LATEST ADVISORY UPDATES.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FIND
OUT IF YOU LIVE WITHIN A STORM SURGE EVACUATION ZONE. KNOW THE
LOCATION OF DESIGNATED OFFICIAL SHELTERS AND LEARN THE MOST DIRECT
SAFE ROUTE TO GET THERE. MOST SHELTERS WILL NOT ALLOW PETS...AND
SOME SHELTERS HAVE FACILITIES FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...SO TAKE
THESE INTO CONSIDERATION. ADDITIONALLY...KNOW YOUR EVACUATION ROUTES
IN ADVANCE. MUCH OF THIS INFORMATION MAY BE FOUND AT YOUR LOCAL TOWN
HALL...OR ON THE INTERNET AT YOUR COUNTY'S OFFICE OF EMERGENCY
WEBSITE.

LISTEN CAREFULLY TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND EVACUATE THE AREA IF TOLD TO
DO SO. IF YOU DO NOT EVACUATE TO AN OFFICIAL SHELTER...YOU MAY
CONSIDER STAYING AT A FRIEND'S OR RELATIVE'S HOME OUT OF THE
EVACUATION ZONE. LEAVE LOW LYING OR COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS
OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS MOST PRONE TO STORM SURGE.
STORM SURGE IS THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF A STORM SUCH AS THIS ONE.
THE SURGE IS A DOME OF WATER THAT COMES ACROSS THE COAST AS THE
STORM MAKES LANDFALL. IF YOU LIVE CLOSE TO THE COAST IN A MOBILE
HOME YOU SHOULD EVACUATE TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER...EVEN IF YOU
ARE NOT IN A STORM SURGE PRONE AREA.

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS
STORM. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING TO HEAD TO HIGHER
GROUND IF YOU LIVE NEAR FLOOD PRONE RIVERS AND STREAMS.

IF EVACUATION IS NOT REQUIRED OR RECOMMENDED...STAY AT HOME IF YOUR
HOUSE IS STURDY AND ON HIGH GROUND.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A RELATIVELY LONG
DURATION OF TIME. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PROPERTY DAMAGE
AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POWER OUTAGES.

MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE FOLLOWING SUPPLIES...

OBTAIN A PORTABLE...BATTERY OPERATED RADIO ALONG WITH A FRESH
SUPPLY OF BATTERIES. A RADIO WILL BE ONE OF YOUR MOST USEFUL
SOURCES OF INFORMATION.

OBTAIN SEVERAL FLASHLIGHTS WITH FRESH BATTERIES. USE OF CANDLES
FOR LIGHTING IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR SAFETY REASONS.

HAVE ENOUGH EXTRA BATTERIES TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THERE MAY BE
NO ELECTRICITY AFTER THE STORM.

HAVE A FULL TANK OF GASOLINE IN YOUR AUTOMOBILE. NEVER LET YOUR
VEHICLE GAS TANK BE LESS THAN HALF FULL DURING A STORM LIKE THIS.
ELECTRICALLY OPERATED GAS PUMPS MAY FAIL DURING THE STORM.

OBTAIN CANNED GOODS AND NON PERISHABLE FOODS. THERE MAY BE NO
ELECTRICITY OR GAS AFTER THE STORM...SO STORE PACKAGED FOODS WHICH
CAN BE PREPARED WITHOUT COOKING AND NEED NO REFRIGERATION. REFILL
NEEDED PRESCRIPTION MEDICATIONS.

OBTAIN CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER. HAVE CLEAN...AIR TIGHT
CONTAINERS TO STORE A SUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE WATER SUPPLY WILL POSSIBLY BE INTERRUPTED OR CONTAMINATED.

OBTAIN MATERIALS FOR PROTECTING GLASS OPENINGS. HAVE SHUTTERS OR
LUMBER FOR PROTECTING LARGE WINDOWS AND DOORS. USE MASKING TAPE ON
SMALL WINDOWS. PUTTING TAPE ON GLASS WINDOWS OR DOORS WILL NOT
PREVENT FLYING DEBRIS FROM BREAKING THE GLASS...BUT WILL MINIMIZE
THE SPREADING AND SHATTERING OF GLASS IF THE WINDOW DOES BREAK.

HAVE MATERIALS FOR EMERGENCY REPAIRS. YOUR INSURANCE POLICY MAY
COVER THE COST OF MATERIALS USED IN TEMPORARY REPAIRS...SO KEEP
ALL RECEIPTS. THESE WILL ALSO BE HELPFUL FOR ANY INCOME TAX
DEDUCTIONS.

FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY...MOOR YOUR BOAT SECURELY OR MOVE IT TO
SAFE SHELTER.

FINALLY...DONT FORGET TO BRING PETS INDOORS...AND SECURE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS IF NOT BRINGING THEM INDOORS AS WELL.

DISCUSS STORM PREPAREDNESS WITH YOUR FAMILY. SHARE YOUR IDEAS WITH
FRIENDS...NEIGHBORS AND RELATIVES. PREPAREDNESS IS A JOB FOR
EVERYONE IN THE COMMUNITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL HELP OR ASSISTANCE ON STORM PREPAREDNESS...PLEASE
CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. IT IS BEST TO FORMULATE YOUR
PREPAREDNESS PLAN WELL IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM...DO NOT WAIT
UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE.
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Getting a little nervous here about staying on a barrier island in south NJ near AC. Stayed last year with irene but didnt have any bad weather. This storm i think much worse will unfold. For now i am staying and the rest of the family is going inland but this could change. very worried about a storm surge over 8 feet
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
1323. ncstorm
ahhh..just heard my first gale here..okay I am out till later..play nice and heed your local warnings..
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1322. DrewE
Local met in central VA is saying the chances of a landing in Maryland and even Virginia has gone up quite a bit.
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1320. yoboi
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Ha! Remind me to never take you as my backpacking buddy. :P

In seriousness, they both suck. I've been in both, I've been out in both with no electricity etc, lived with no a/c for most of the last 5 years in a place that routinely gets to 105, sometimes higher. Does it suck? Yes, it does.

Cold _kills_, much more often and sometimes fairly quickly, though at least it doesn't generally involve mosquitoes.

My fingers are crossed that we're having a totally moot, hypothetical, silly, which-is-worse match, and that nobody will get to find out about hypothermia. It is no fun, trust me.



more heat related deaths in the usa than people freezing to death.....it's a fact
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Quoting guygee:
True but that has morphed in popular language so Frankenstein's Monster now has become Frankenstein.

I am just going by my favorite musical album "Tarzan, Tonto and Frankenstein Sing Christmas Carols"


Great album, I think Gro ran the mix on that one. My favorite track is "I saw Ke-mo sah-bee's mama kissing Santa Claus"

just sayin' :)

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Inyo ~

Saw your good post about the gulls and sea air.
Please pop over to Sully's or Blizz's NE Weather Blog(s) and mention that.
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1317. suzi46
1286. washingtonian115

OK!! sorry if I misunderstood what you meant..being a native New Englander, and now living in the Mt Washington Valley of NH/ME..I've seen more mega snowstorms, etc.. than I care to remember..exciting in theory, lousy to experience first hand! :)
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1316. yoboi
Quoting guygee:
I've read historical accounts of people living in Florida before air conditioning was invented and became affordable.

Seriously, I can cool off in the ocean, and if you are not near the ocean you can get your hose and pour it over your head.


been thru hurricanes here in la and most times no water in the hose due to the water system down and good luck trying to get into a ocean or any waterway after a storm because rip current is bad with receeding water....there are more heat related deaths than people freezing to death every yr in the USA...
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Looks as if the windward sides of Erie and Ontario might be getting in on the lake affect snow machine on the back side of the system as she pulls away from the coast. Although much of that will depend upon whether she decides to hug the coast for a few days or move inland towards Ontario, Canada.

But the possibility is there.

Lake Michigan is at what temp 50's, with wind temp over it of 20's, wouldn't that be dangerous for high convection/even thundersnow?
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Quoting yoboi:


i think someone invented matches a few yrs back and ya can always find something to burn....been in extreme cold and heat without electricity with extreme heat not much ya can do to stay cool....


Ha! Remind me to never take you as my backpacking buddy. :P

In seriousness, they both suck. I've been in both, I've been out in both with no electricity etc, lived with no a/c for most of the last 5 years in a place that routinely gets to 105, sometimes higher. Does it suck? Yes, it does.

Cold _kills_, much more often and sometimes fairly quickly, though at least it doesn't generally involve mosquitoes.

My fingers are crossed that we're having a totally moot, hypothetical, silly, which-is-worse match, and that nobody will get to find out about hypothermia. It is no fun, trust me.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
The FIM 8 and FIM 9 are also doing the GFS loop taking this into NYC before looping it south to Delmarva, back off shore, and then up into NYC again, and straight up into Canada.

Given that the HWRF and GFDL and the CMC all portray some sort of loop, it is possible that this will do a loop at either landfall point, if it hits nyc, after the loop it goes to canada, if it hits delmarva, it may go south to NC or more into VA.

Its strange this loop, throws a kink in everything, the faster it gets inland the more snow people could see.


What are snow people?
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1311. LargoFl
sandy still isnt up to central florida yet......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36868
1310. guygee
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Yep. Something tells me somebody has never been in a really cold place during a storm. There are things you can't really "layer" out of.

Cool, sure. Cold, especially wet and cold? Um, no.

Do note, folks, that if you have no heat, and it's wet out, the most insulating fabrics (that most people probably have on hand) while wet are wool and silk. Cotton is _terrible_ in the wet and cold, cover yourself in wool if you can. And long silk underwear = best investment evah, the stuff I had as a teenager is still wearable, worth the cash.
Right on the money lurky.
Never hike in the mountains wearing cotton, it is the "death fabric" because it loses all insulation value when it gets wet.
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All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneSandy @ 26Oct.12pm

MHH-GreatAbaco :: GHB&RSD-Eleuthera :: CAT-CatIsland :: LGI-LongIsland

The southernmost dot on the longest line is H.Sandy's most recently reported ATCF position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within ~23miles or 37kilometres) to an inhabited coastline (then to the map's top)
26Oct.12am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 10.9miles(17.5kilometres)ENEast of Eleuthera, then a passage 23.6miles(37.9kilometres)ENEast of ElbowCay (right of MarshHarbour-MHH)
(shown by the 2 unlabeled and unconnected dots right of the connected lines)
26Oct.06am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage directly over MarshHarbour
26Oct.12pm: H.Sandy's center had been headed for a 1:05pm passage over ElbowCay at southWhiteSound. MarshHarbour (MHH) would have felt the full brunt of Sandy's left half.

Sandy's travel speed has halved, and it appears that it's finally stopped curving westward.

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
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I still don't know why Sandy gets through 50 knots of wind shear.


850 vorticity


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Quoting guygee:
I've read historical accounts of people living in Florida before air conditioning was invented and became affordable.

Seriously, I can cool off in the ocean, and if you are not near the ocean you can get your hose and pour it over your head.

screw all that! just take off your shirt and stand in front of an opened fridge! lol
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1306. Skyepony (Mod)
Highest wind I've had so far is 34mph..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
1305. ncstorm
Quoting Chucktown:


Here is the 12 Z NAM initialization, fresh out. The NAM is good to use here when showing the trough over the midwest. See that shortwave over southern Colorado, that will "create" the push needed to "kick" Sandy north the eventually northeast for a while. This and a few other vort maxes is what will cause the trough to become negative. If it wasn't for that, then Sandy probably would be making landfall somewhere between the OBX and Jacksonville.



thanks for the detail explanation..appreciate it!
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Also according to satellite predictions, the west side of sandy should wrap around the center shortly, and at landfall, sandy may have a huge hole around the center.
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Quoting sar2401:


Glad to hear you're OK. Both the DR and Haiti were on the strong side of the storm. What do you hear coming out of Haiti? So far, we're hearing only nine dead, which seems unusually low, given the amount of damage and destruction in the DR.

Yes, i only heard 9 deaths in haiti, here we have oficially 1 death, but in haiti is a preliminar numbers because many places are incomunicated because the roads and bridges colapsed
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Seems it has once again become the TomballTXPride and Nea show again like it has for the past two weeks.I thought they settled their problem?.

Never, they both like the sound of there own voices and won't give up until they are louder than the other.
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1301. LargoFl
Quoting 8963su:
Thanks to everyone posting for such great information! Love reading this blog and comments. Who thinks the gfs will stand strong and bring the storm to Long Island?
my guess is its too early to tell yet, possibly saturday or sunday morning they will know better..good luck up there and stay safe ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36868
Quoting BillyG60:
The Beaches here in Indialantic( east central Florida-- think shuttle launches) are holding up pretty well so far. The sandbars are going to be rearranged after this storm that is for sure. Wind is steady at about 40 MPH at the beach. Waves are breaking on the outside about 1/4 mile out, which is pretty far for (Beach Break type surf) All the ducks in the pond at my condo are loving it though!!!
Video of conditions at 10 am


http://youtu.be/F17DYzcnla8
oh how I miss FIT and being able to go see storms from that beach whenever I wanted.
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The FIM 8 and FIM 9 are also doing the GFS loop taking this into NYC before looping it south to Delmarva, back off shore, and then up into NYC again, and straight up into Canada.

Given that the HWRF and GFDL and the CMC all portray some sort of loop, it is possible that this will do a loop at either landfall point, if it hits nyc, after the loop it goes to canada, if it hits delmarva, it may go south to NC or more into VA.

Its strange this loop, throws a kink in everything, the faster it gets inland the more snow people could see.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Excellent view of the BIG pic

Will be interesting to follow
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Seems it has once again become the TomballTXPride and Nea show again like it has for the past two weeks.I thought they settled their problem?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
1295. guygee
Quoting yoboi:


i think someone invented matches a few yrs back and ya can always find something to burn....been in extreme cold and heat without electricity with extreme heat not much ya can do to stay cool....
I've read historical accounts of people living in Florida before air conditioning was invented and became affordable.

Seriously, I can cool off in the ocean, and if you are not near the ocean you can get your hose and pour it over your head.
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1294. 8963su
Thanks to everyone posting for such great information! Love reading this blog and comments. Who thinks the gfs will stand strong and bring the storm to Long Island?
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Quoting goosegirl1:



If a storm like this parks above DC for 4 days, anything goes. I was not in Katrina and don't wish to pretend I "know" what happened. But put togther a few million humans who are used to be taken care of and then strip them of electicity and running water for a couple of weeks. What do you imagine would happen? And yes can happen. Maybe not n this storm, but what has happened once will happene again. Ask any geologist.


Hm? Ask me what now? lol
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1292. LargoFl
here's an Alert..................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-261530-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
930 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...STRONG GUSTS WITH SQUALLS...

THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE THE COAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
TO 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH PASSING SQUALLS NEAR THE EAST COAST
THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR STRONG GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SQUALLS
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE SQUALLS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AND A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT LATE THIS MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE TREE LIMBS TO
FALL...BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS AND MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36868

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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