Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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1442. sigh
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Are they meaning, unprecedented for this time of year? The mid-Atlantic (and the NE) has had category 1 hurricanes before, though they are rare.


This event is not going to be an ordinary hurricane. In fact, Sandy may not even technically be a hurricane (i.e., a tropical cyclone) when it makes landfall.

This loop shows what's going to happen, and it is indeed unprecedented -- we have never seen this type of megastorm hit the United States.

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HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION. USING A BLEND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT YIELDS A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AT
LEAST SLIGHT WEAKENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS VERY
LIKELY DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL
AT 96 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF
THE TRANSITION. REGARDLESS...WHETHER SANDY IS OFFICIALLY TROPICAL
OR POST-TROPICAL AT LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE
IMPACTS.

LATEST FIXES FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION
WITH THE CENTER APPEARING TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO ESCAPE THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TO BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIG AS
IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72 HOURS. THE FLOW ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT
FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 26.7N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 30.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 39.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 31/1200Z 40.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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1440. yoboi
Quoting AegirsGal:
And do what, go outside where it will be colder, windier and wetter and burn it? Not everyone along the east coast, or New England has a fireplace.


ya can build a big enough fire outside to stay warm...did it in montana a few times while camping
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1439. Skyepony (Mod)
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1437. DrewE


Lets hope this stays accurate and doesn't jump 2-3 feet. I don't want to drive to my river house on Wednesday and find it underwater.
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Quoting CloudGatherer:
Updated HPC Discussion:
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY
MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
...A
PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS
WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW
YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO
NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS... INCLUDING (BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012...ISAAC 2012...DEBBY 2012 IN THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IRENE 2011 AND IGOR 2010. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON SANDY.

THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS AN OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC THAT
IS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE CONSIDERING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.

WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
PER THIS SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AS HIGH AS
HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY)
...LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE
TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE
TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENG AND ERN
CANADA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA
HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO FALL AS CENTERED/FOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NRN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN AS SHOULD NERN US PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT
EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING TROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THE LOW.


can u provide the link
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1434. LargoFl
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1433. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like the full moon high tide might peak before the surge. Not the surge is still going up & the end of the forecast.

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H at landfall...
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1431. ncstorm
I had to come back and post this..while the HPC is calling for 12 inches..the O6z GFS is calling for over 20-26 inches in some places..if this comes in any farther west??..good gracious!!

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From the 11AM Advisory:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE SITE AT LAKE WORTH
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H WITH A GUST
TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WARNING AREAS IN THE BAHAMAS...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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1429. Wiebel
Quoting indianrivguy:


seawalls are a very ineffective at energy dissipation and most often cause the loss of whatever is seaward if waves can break on the wall..


A) Seawalls have a very high reflection coefficient, you are right about that. That's what causes the choppy wave field in front of the seawall, and it increases wave height.

B) Seawalls, or anything that stops the water, even a beach, increases the height of the surge. There is no such thing as dissipating storm surge. Its like stopping a freight train. A vertical wall does a great job in stopping it, it does not dissipate it.

As for the Ike case, I hope its not going to happen. We are looking at a massive system, its slow, its low pressure and we have a large continental shelve which means 2nd order effects can enhance surge. Expect a widespread surge pattern with its peak "on the right side". Height: its way too early to tell.

EDIT: Take into account that the 2nd order effects are not well represented in the models, and that we are looking at a stretch of coast that hasnt been tested that often before. Model results can be way off.
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1428. sar2401
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Just wondering is this is it? for South Florida with this weird storm?,the Mets were calling for the worst day today for us,but so far light rain and windy at times,don't know if the storm is making the transiction from tropical to ex-Tropical or we are not getting the weather conditions that were forecasted because of the dry air?,or maybe I'm wrong and Sandy will grow-up in size and then we will feel more effect from it??,any comments?,thanks!!.

The dry air is tearing up the south end of Sandy. The impacts to Florida, other than beach erosion, should be minimal. This is a disappointment to some some SFL doomcasters, but I imagine most people in Florida are pretty happy with the outcome.
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1427. Skyepony (Mod)
Surge forecasts. Click pic to go interactive.
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Quoting yoboi:


i think someone invented matches a few yrs back and ya can always find something to burn....been in extreme cold and heat without electricity with extreme heat not much ya can do to stay cool....
And do what, go outside where it will be colder, windier and wetter and burn it? Not everyone along the east coast, or New England has a fireplace.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:
im over sandy just another irene...and btw irene was way better looking than this POS, i know its suppost to be some crazy hybrid noreastercane but seriously its not going to have winds much over hurricane strength in reality! Not impressed!


Believe what you will, but being complacent about this isn't a smart idea. The last few nor'easter, take for example the Halloween Nor'easter last year, only had pressures around 971mb. Even then, I used to live in the Northeast, Connecticut and Rhode Island, Nor'easters aren't a joke, or a POS. This could have pressures sub 950mb, and might not even be a Nor'easter, more like a hybrid system. Also the saving grace for you guys was the fact that you had Virgina and North Carolina help weaken the storm. It could have been much worse.
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Updated HPC Discussion:
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY
MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
...A
PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS
WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW
YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO
NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS... INCLUDING (BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012...ISAAC 2012...DEBBY 2012 IN THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IRENE 2011 AND IGOR 2010. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON SANDY.

THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS AN OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC THAT
IS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE CONSIDERING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.

WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
PER THIS SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AS HIGH AS
HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY)
...LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE
TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE
TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENG AND ERN
CANADA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA
HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO FALL AS CENTERED/FOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NRN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN AS SHOULD NERN US PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT
EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING TROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THE LOW.
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Link Storm Surge Maps Middle Atlantic (VA, MD, DE, NJ, NY)

Clever, Skye! Was struggling with this. This link is WU graphicast-like.
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1422. LargoFl
winds on the east coast getting Stronger folks.........
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1421. Skyepony (Mod)
Surge forecasts. Click pic to go interactive.
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1420. bwat
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
im over sandy just another irene...and btw irene was way better looking than this POS, i know its suppost to be some crazy hybrid noreastercane but seriously its not going to have winds much over hurricane strength in reality! Not impressed!
True, but the wind-field size and duration is going to me extreme. Guessing you're in NC also. When we have had recent storms we had 24 hours of >39 mph winds, getting to the 80-90 mph range for 6 hours in the middle, lots of rain, and then it was over. Now, imagine a 60mph wind and drenching rains sitting over top of you for 36 hours. I don't know about you, but I'm impressed.
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1419. BDAwx
Keep in mind, the "never before seen" and "historical event" part applies mainly to the set of meteorological factors aligning and less to the impacts of the storm; people in this region have seen flash flooding, storm surges, snow, and hurricane forced winds before.

Although the entire region probably hasn't seen it all simultaneously which makes this significant.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
Here in Brigantine they built a huge sea wall about 10 or so years ago on our north end. It used to have about 50+ yards of beach in front of it at all times even during storms there would be plenty of beach there but NOW during WEAK storms waves crash onto the walk way on it and over it. Even during low tide theres only a few muddy feet seperating the sea wall and the ocean.. During Irene Massive waves were crashing over it into the road but the sea level was still a good 3 feet or so below the top of the wall. If water makes it over that wall its pretty much certin the enitre island will fill up with water since we at sea level and under in some places


seawalls are a very ineffective at energy dissipation and most often cause the loss of whatever is seaward if waves can break on the wall.. A natural sloped beach is much more effective, the problem with beach is longshore currents can strip them away. lose lose, mother nature wins again.

Has anyone heard discussions about storm surge. The wind field is HUGE and will be packing a lot of shoreline long before arrival... like Ike.
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1417. barbamz
New Vortex reading to the East. Pressure has been falling from 974 to

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 971mb (28.67 inHg)
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What was the blob the GFS showed at 264 hours?
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1415. sar2401
Quoting RitaEvac:


In recorded weather history

I really don't think is going to be bigger than the 1991 "Perfect Storm", let alone several monsters in the 19th century. What we have is a lot of media outlets selling this one, so it will be bigger in terms of impact because we'll know about every tree down and exactly how many people are without power. The media is able to make any storm seem like the worst ever.
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Will be on Fox Business at top of the hour. How about that ECMWF nailed the turn more to the west!
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1413. LargoFl
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


923??!! that's lower than the 926mb from the other crazy model


Looks like Frankenstorm could be an apocalyptocane.
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Quoting LargoFl:
seems NY nws is taking it very seriously
Indeed, they are. From the NWS New York discussion:
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUE ATTM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF
45-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. WHAT MAKES
THIS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IS THAT THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED
EVENT...WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE LASTING ANYWHERE FROM 18-30
HOURS. THIS WOULD BATTER THE COASTS...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT FLOODING RAINS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
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im over sandy just another irene...and btw irene was way better looking than this POS, i know its suppost to be some crazy hybrid noreastercane but seriously its not going to have winds much over hurricane strength in reality! Not impressed!
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
Some misinformation flying around today, so here's my post to clarify what is going on in my view, hope it helps anyone lurking who is in danger!

- Right now, Hurricane Sandy is being blasted by shear, but that isn't a saving grace, or a salvation, or whatever you wish to call it. What you are seeing is the beginning of the transition of Sandy into a more hybrid looking system. If I could name a recent example of this, it is Hurricane Hanna in 2008.

- The models can and will be wrong, but that doesn't mean you should throw them out, especially when they're in complete agreement. Remember, these models have millions upon million of data and information running into them, they're the best we have. As technology improves, they'll improve too.

- Sandy will probably make landfall in the United States or Canada, that much appears clear at this point. However, the affects of Sandy will range for hundreds of miles, that is because as Sandy goes into a more hybrid system, its wind field will greatly expand.

- Sandy will probably strengthen once it begins to interact with the strong baroclinic sources ahead of it. People need to understand that Sandy will not be a normal hurricane, it will be more of a nor'easter or a hybrid, it will be undergoing the transition to extra-tropical once it makes landfall.

- One must not forget the amount of storm surge large hurricanes like this brings. You can ask anyone who lived in Louisiana this last August about how bad Isaac was for only being a Category 1, it was more on the scale of Category 2-3 damage for them. That is because a large, slow moving system like Sandy kicks up a lot of waves and will cause storm surge.

I hope this helps some of you guys understand, right now it may *look* like the shear will save us, but it's all part of the process from Sandy becoming a warm core system, to a hybrid.
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1408. LargoFl
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hype?

Over the next 5 days a set of extraordinary meteorological factors will come together to potentially produce a hurricane impact on the NE US coast that has never before been experienced since the founding of this nation and the keeping of written weather records.



In response to this potential threat, all US weather balloon sounding stations are launching upper air balloons every 6 hours to incorporate the latest data into the forecast models in support of NHC and HPC forecasting operations…this has never happened before!



The following discussion will attempt to explain this complex set of parameters for what appears to be an increasing likely extremely high impact but never before seen event!

thank you for posting that, ive been saying that..we here..right now and this coming week..will be experiencing weather history in the making
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1407. LargoFl
Quoting weatherbro:
Imagine if this thing indeed bombs out over NYC at 923MB as the GFDL advertises!!!
seems NY nws is taking it very seriously
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Quoting Skyepony:
24 hr MIMIC of Sandy.

Another squall just arrived.

At the end of that Mimic it looks like Sandy as a cane (Sandycane)has disappeared.
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It can be easily stated that should the forecast track and models “spectacular” low pressure verify a storm of rare intensity and tremendous impacts will be felt along the NE and mid-Atlantic coast. Given the forecasted perpendicular strike on the coast, onshore winds will push the Atlantic Ocean inland along the New Jersey and New York coast including New York City. Due to the high blocking over Greenland, the fetch of wind will extend nearly across the entire Atlantic Ocean and this will result in massive wave action aimed at the NE US coast. Lunar tides are also near peak with the full moon on Monday and this combined with the wave run-up and long duration of onshore winds (20-30 hours at 60-80mph) will result in potentially record breaking storm surge values. The potential is there for coastal inundation of sea water never before experienced in the NE US including New York City, but this depends heavily on the exact track of the center of Sandy.



Strong winds will batter much of the mid Atlantic and NE for not hours but days as Sandy moves NW to WNW and slows. These winds will last anywhere from 20-30 hours at 60-80mph with higher gust resulting in widespread power outages and downed trees. Strong winds will spread well inland from the coast into Canada and the OH valley.



Rainfall will be extensive as tropical moisture is brought northward with Sandy and pushed against a stalled front nearly along the higher terrain of the Appalachian mountains. Flooding rainfall due to the high rainfall rates and slow storm motion is likely and it is possible some rivers will reach record crests.



Impacts over the open Atlantic will be severe with a massive area of sustained winds of 60-70mph over hundreds of miles. Wave heights will build into the 20-30 foot range and I would not be surprised to see heights build toward 40-45 feet. Visibilities will be reduced to near zero in blowing sea spray and heavy rainfall.



Potential for widespread travel and commerce disruption as air, surface, sea, and rail travel will likely be significantly impacted along with widespread long term power outages which could last well into November.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Are they meaning, unprecedented for this time of year? The mid-Atlantic (and the NE) has had category 1 hurricanes before, though they are rare.


In recorded weather history
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Misty and overcast here.
Same here in Raleigh.
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1400. sar2401
Quoting oracle28:
Question: is it too early to call this a fish storm?

Just asking.

Yes, way too early. I haven't been on board for a big northeast storm since Sandy formed, and I still don't think this is going to Frankenstorm, but I'm also not buying a turn out to sea and nothing happening.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Hype?

Over the next 5 days a set of extraordinary meteorological factors will come together to potentially produce a hurricane impact on the NE US coast that has never before been experienced since the founding of this nation and the keeping of written weather records.



In response to this potential threat, all US weather balloon sounding stations are launching upper air balloons every 6 hours to incorporate the latest data into the forecast models in support of NHC and HPC forecasting operations…this has never happened before!



The following discussion will attempt to explain this complex set of parameters for what appears to be an increasing likely extremely high impact but never before seen event!



Are they meaning, unprecedented for this time of year? The mid-Atlantic (and the NE) has had category 1 hurricanes before, though they are rare.
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1398. bwat
Quoting TomballTXPride:

06Z HWFR has 923MB over NYC. Yeah, RIGHT!!! LMFAO

Thats is a huge change in landfall forecast from the previous HWRF run....thats gotta be a 250 mile difference.
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General information.
Storm surge Middle Atlantic (VA, MD, DE, NJ, NY)

Wave watch.





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Quoting TomballTXPride:

06Z HWFR has 923MB over NYC. Yeah, RIGHT!!! LOL!!!



923??!! that's lower than the 926mb from the other crazy model
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Does anybody have any idea or has anybody seen any forecast's for snow amounts for Central and NW Ohio? Right now they are calling for a rain/snow/wind event. From what I am reading we could be in for a significant snow event here.
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It can be easily stated that should the forecast track and models “spectacular” low pressure verify a storm of rare intensity and tremendous impacts will be felt along the NE and mid-Atlantic coast. Given the forecasted perpendicular strike on the coast, onshore winds will push the Atlantic Ocean inland along the New Jersey and New York coast including New York City. Due to the high blocking over Greenland, the fetch of wind will extend nearly across the entire Atlantic Ocean and this will result in massive wave action aimed at the NE US coast. Lunar tides are also near peak with the full moon on Monday and this combined with the wave run-up and long duration of onshore winds (20-30 hours at 60-80mph) will result in potentially record breaking storm surge values. The potential is there for coastal inundation of sea water never before experienced in the NE US including New York City, but this depends heavily on the exact track of the center of Sandy.



Strong winds will batter much of the mid Atlantic and NE for not hours but days as Sandy moves NW to WNW and slows. These winds will last anywhere from 20-30 hours at 60-80mph with higher gust resulting in widespread power outages and downed trees. Strong winds will spread well inland from the coast into Canada and the OH valley.



Rainfall will be extensive as tropical moisture is brought northward with Sandy and pushed against a stalled front nearly along the higher terrain of the Appalachian mountains. Flooding rainfall due to the high rainfall rates and slow storm motion is likely and it is possible some rivers will reach record crests.



Impacts over the open Atlantic will be severe with a massive area of sustained winds of 60-70mph over hundreds of miles. Wave heights will build into the 20-30 foot range and I would not be surprised to see heights build toward 40-45 feet. Visibilities will be reduced to near zero in blowing sea spray and heavy rainfall.



Potential for widespread travel and commerce disruption as air, surface, sea, and rail travel will likely be significantly impacted along with widespread long term power outages which could last well into November.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hype?

Over the next 5 days a set of extraordinary meteorological factors will come together to potentially produce a hurricane impact on the NE US coast that has never before been experienced since the founding of this nation and the keeping of written weather records.



In response to this potential threat, all US weather balloon sounding stations are launching upper air balloons every 6 hours to incorporate the latest data into the forecast models in support of NHC and HPC forecasting operations…this has never happened before!



The following discussion will attempt to explain this complex set of parameters for what appears to be an increasing likely extremely high impact but never before seen event!



Yebbut, it's currently being torn up by 40kts of shear and going into 70 kts. These high values extend half the way up the coast. How come Sandy survives all that?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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