Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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Quoting Grothar:
Sudden blowup of very cold cloud tops in the past hour.



She seems to have sacrificed some of that convective deadweight to the east/southeast to focus on reorganizing her core in the face of increased wind shear... her southwest quad already looks much better than it did a few hours ago. That's what it looks like.
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That map showing 25-30 inches of snow in the WVA/Maryland/PA mountains, a few inches across most of VA all the way to the tidewater, and the warmer part of the storm slamming the mid-atlantic-NE coast..... is amazing to even think about. Not saying this scenario will pan out, but hard to ignore the model consistency. Kind of surreal to see this unfolding
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol just joking with ya!.Glad to see another one on the blog.To many floridians.


I resemble that remark....
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Quoting Thrawst:
Baha, any ideas on how intense you believe our winds will be at max?
Haven't changed my views on this; nothing worse that we saw with Irene, and more likely near 60mph than 70mph... my only concern is that a westward jog might bring hurricane force winds to the eastern end of the island.
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138. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting aerojad:
For anyone who wants to get nostalgic, here's some 1991 TWC Perfect Storm coverage.


Great find!
Quoting ThatGuyAgain:


Why isn't there? I see plenty of people from cities in Florida all the time.
Lol just joking with ya!.Glad to see another one on the blog.To many floridians.
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136. redux
something about "native" and "washingtonian" didn't compute in my head.

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Quoting aprinz1979:

Esto no pasa en Cuba!


Awesome, you got your water system under control. Now if you could only get your government under control....
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry but there is only room for one true native washingtonian on this blog.
Good luck with that........LOL
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Quoting Grothar:
Sudden blowup of very cold cloud tops in the past hour.



...I saw it first : )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry but there is only room for one true native washingtonian on this blog.


Why isn't there? I see plenty of people from cities in Florida all the time.
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131. redux
the biggest question i have is....when does she go extratropical?

and how badly are the models off in terms of the projected pressure? are they off?
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Quoting ThatGuyAgain:


I don't really like hearing that, considering I live in DC...
Sorry but there is only room for one true native washingtonian on this blog.
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This thing literally stretches from Panama to North Carolina. Incredible!

It looks like it's getting ready to morph into the history books.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.h tml
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Quoting Dakster:
Drinking water in Hialeah contaminated. Residents urged to boil water or use bottled water.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/25/3067586/hia leah-under-water-warning-after.html

Link

Esto no pasa en Cuba!
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Quoting Dakster:
Anyone think we will see Valerie or William?

I know, I know, we are not done with Sandy yet. But at least I made you think for a minute.
No
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Quoting ThatGuyAgain:


I don't really like hearing that, considering I live in DC...
ThatGuy..........At least you are concerned and aware... Keep it up.......... and be prepared
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Quoting Dakster:


Then you are ready and know what to expect.
Well we have the flashlights batteries going to Sams to go grocery shopping so I'll have the food as well.We have tons of hollowenn candy so we can feast!.
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Anyone think we will see Valerie or William?

I know, I know, we are not done with Sandy yet. But at least I made you think for a minute.
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Sandy's damage from Kingston and St Andrew, Jamaica

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Sudden blowup of very cold cloud tops in the past hour.

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hmmm sandy looks like too be takeing a all most same track has hurricane Irene DID so here comes hurricane Irene part 2


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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think a landfall in the DC area is looking more and more likely.

120:



I don't really like hearing that, considering I live in DC...
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Sandy microwave as of 2209:

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I see the Northeast is more likely to be hit by Sandy hope that doesn`t happen but its looking more likely with every run in the models.She and Isaac will probably be retire.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I've been impacted by countless nor'easters so this one will be nothing special.if this was december I would be waiting on the snow to come.But since this is still october that event will likely not happen.


Then you are ready and know what to expect.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yay!... glad to see you made it through okay... So far Sandy has taken 1 in JA, one in Haiti and 1 in Cuba... I hope that is all she gets....

Pity about the bananas. My mom has been complaining that every time she has a bunch almost ready to mature a storm comes along and blows her bananas down... I can imagine the problems when it's your livelihood that just blew down. I've also been hearing reports from Long Island that substantial damage to crops has been reported by some of the local farmers.

Banana production is already pretty low, so this is only going to make it worst. Banana was once a major contributor to GDP, but the sector has suffered major damage from Ivan, Dean, Gustav, Nicole and now Sandy.
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Well I've been impacted by countless nor'easters so this one will be nothing special.if this was december I would be waiting on the snow to come.But since this is still october that event will likely not happen.
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Since Patrap is not around. Here is a FEMA update.

http://www.fema.gov/news-release/hurricane-sandy- nears-southeast-florida-fema-urges-residents-prepa re-extreme-weather

Link
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Is that spin on the NW coast of Cuba a ULL or part of Sandy?
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
You should be happy


Overall, yes... They will not fix their equipment by me and that is ticking me off.

Washintonian: tell me how good or bad it was in a few days... Otherwise I do not know. So far it has just been a little more rain and wind than our typical raining season thunderstorms. So it may be just like that for you too.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Anyone from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast who isn't yet aware of the threat posed by Sandy will be by this time tomorrow--perhaps painfully so. Some current internet headlines:

--Forecasters Warn East Coast About 'Frankenstorm' (ABC News)

--Not a trick or a treat: Hurricane Sandy could hit as monster hybrid storm (Christian Science Monitor)

--‘Frankenstorm’ shaping up to slam East Coast (Boston Herald)

--'Dangerous' Hurricane Sandy and resulting Frankenstorm may impact LI, forecasters say (Newsday)

And this is, of course, a sampling. I imagine that by tomorrow evening and then into the weekend the airwaves will be inundated with dire warnings and no small amount of hype about the coming storm. But even with the almost certain oversaturation, I'm sure that, as always happens after events like these, there'll be many angrily asking, "Why weren't we told about this?!" But, well, that's human nature for you...
I'm assuming you have never seen the reality show "Swamp People" They are truly out there
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Thrawst! Hopefully Sandy's Damage to the to the Bahamas will be limited.


Hope so as well... will be an interesting night for sure!
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Do you think the NHC could upgrade Sandy to a major in post-season analysis?
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For anyone who wants to get nostalgic, here's some 1991 TWC Perfect Storm coverage.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Sandy looks quite poor on infrared images right now:
No surprise there. I mentioned several times the best conditions for this storm would be on Thursday and in the Caribbean. Sure enough, it has crossed Cuba and now shear is beginning to kill the storm. The peak south of Cuba was fully expected, even the NHC forecasted it (though not as intense). Not sure why Levi said it was unprecedented.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Right now it's driveable......... Not too bad........Can't say what it will be in a few hours

He reckons he will leave about 11pm 10 bucks he will drive cause he won't listen to girls lol
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Anyone from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast who isn't yet aware of the threat posed by Sandy will be by this time tomorrow--perhaps painfully so. Some current internet headlines:

--Forecasters Warn East Coast About 'Frankenstorm' (ABC News)

--Not a trick or a treat: Hurricane Sandy could hit as monster hybrid storm (Christian Science Monitor)

--‘Frankenstorm’ shaping up to slam East Coast (Boston Herald)

--'Dangerous' Hurricane Sandy and resulting Frankenstorm may impact LI, forecasters say (Newsday)

And this is, of course, a sampling. I imagine that by tomorrow evening and then into the weekend the airwaves will be inundated with dire warnings and no small amount of hype about the coming storm. But even with the almost certain oversaturation, I'm sure that, as always happens after events like these, there'll be many angrily asking, "Why weren't we told about this?!" But, well, that's human nature for you...
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Some pretty wicked squalls coming through now, packing moderate rain and brief but powerful wind gusts.

Regards,
-Gary
Hollywood Florida
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Quoting nigel20:
Thanks Angela! Hey everyone! I'm happy to report that Jamaica weathered Hurricane Sandy Fairly Well. There are reports of roof. Damage that in sections of Jamaica, but these reports are mostly isolated. The national grid suffered major damage...70% of Jamaica was without power yesterday, but that's down to 50% from the last report. There is only one reported fatality at the moment...it seems as if some of our rural roads suffered major damage in the eastern tip. Most of the Bananas on thhe eastern end of Jamaica were completely wiped out, but i'm thankful that it wasn't worse.

Hopefully our friends in the Bahamas will keep safe.
Yay!... glad to see you made it through okay... So far Sandy has taken 1 in JA, one in Haiti and 1 in Cuba... I hope that is all she gets....

Pity about the bananas. My mom has been complaining that every time she has a bunch almost ready to mature a storm comes along and blows her bananas down... I can imagine the problems when it's your livelihood that just blew down. I've also been hearing reports from Long Island that substantial damage to crops has been reported by some of the local farmers.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like it may starting to turn EXTRATROP soon

If by "soon" you mean in 96-120 hours, then yes, I agree. If by "soon" you mean within the next day or two, then I disagree. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm to support a tropical cyclone at least up until North Carolina's latitude and it is not getting tangled up with any other extratropical or cold-core low.
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Yeah dakster but I'm not really taking the threat serious.We're use to storms sitting of the coast of the east coast during the late fall and winter months and bringing some gusty winds.So what makes this one so different?.
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Woww!!!!! Sandy is creating convection again.... what a incredible storm!!
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Quoting Dakster:


I have FPL or Florida Plunder and Loot...
You should be happy
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18z GFS is a copy of the 12z. Consistency for such an extreme event is remarkable.

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
But, But, I have Lake Worth utilities..........Sigh


I have FPL or Florida Plunder and Loot...
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Quoting AllStar17:
Sandy looks quite poor on infrared images right now:



looks like it may starting to turn EXTRATROP soon
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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