Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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292. bwat
Quoting AztecCe:
thats only about 30miles north of me! O-O
You must be close.....E. City here.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 353
Quoting thelmores:
As one who has observed weather for almost 20 years, and intensely for 10 years, this "situation" is one of the most fascinating I have ever seen!

You always hear about the "worst case" scenario, but it rarely ever happens...... I mean look at the storm last year that was touted as a super-storm for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, which turned into a super thud!

This is a big concern of mine, that folks in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast will not take this storm seriously! If that is the case, it is a major mistake! This storm has the potential to re-write the record book on "hybrid" storms.... I believe we will potentially see many record river/lake levels set, as heavy rainfall locally could last for 3-4 days! And on the coast, with the astronomical hide tide (full moon) already in place, tidal surge for New York city could set modern day records as well! Little doubt in my mind that most of Manhattan will under water!

Bottom line, in you live near the coast, or near a river, or live in/near a flood prone area, make your preparations NOW! Nothing in weather is written in stone, but for me there seems little doubt that this storm will be the worst to affect the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast in modern history!

Hopefully NOAA will do a superb job in getting the word out, and convincing folks of the possibility of loss of life, and certainly property damage approaching, perhaps surpassing a Billion dollars!

I wish harm to nobody, make that clear, but from a purely fan of weather, this will be absolutely thrilling and amazing to watch!!!! Storm of a lifetime!

Stay safe if you are in harms way!
yes i agree, history in the making and i too hope those folks up there really do heed their local warnings, this is no ordinary rain storm
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting sullivanweather:
Anyone have the 18z gdfl they can post?

lol nvmd. That's the 12z.
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288. NJ2S
If the storm comes in to the jersey shore south of NYC will the Hudson river rise and overtop.... My home and my job are both located just yards dro
The rivers edge.... Just wondering what to except here in Hoboken/weehawken nj
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In case anyone is even following the typhoon season, Tropical Storm Olef has been bringing quite a punch to Visayas in the Philippines. Death toll has reached 4, with 6 others missing.

Tropical Storm ‘Ofel’ slices across Visayas; 4 dead
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
18Z GFDL coming in just north of Virginia Beach at 929 MB.


Do you have a link? Thanks!
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Quoting oceanblues32:
Hey everyone Amy here located in Dania Beach Florida snuggled cozily between Ft Lauderdale and Miami on the coast. Woke up this morning around 6 am to the loudest blast and the sky lit up and then of course the lights went out. Proceeded outside to see the powerline on the ground directly across the street all the way to the corner with the bushes on fire the line laying over cars..the next thing ya know the fireman says... CITIZENS of The united States residing on se 4th terrace please go in your homes and do not come back outside until we let you know...(he probably always wanted to do that..lol)needless to say the wind is still gusting and it sounds like someone is trying to open the door. Dont think I will be getting much sleep...


Its Odd he said the 'Citizen' thingy... did he think non-citizens & foreigners could go out & trample around on 16KV power lines ? LOL
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Quoting RascalNag:
It seems like the models are beginning to zero in on a landfall around New Jersey, at least for tonight. I'm definitely going to keep an eye one it, since with these tracks it seems the center could make its way right over Philly and me. I also wonder what the strength predictions will be like later on, since it's dicey to deal with those transitions out of tropical characteristics... But for now, I think an impact of some sort is imminent. Where and how strong remains to be seen for me, but if I had to choose a location now I'd pick northern New Jersey. Though with each day my personal predictions go further South. Southern New Jersey or Delaware would be the worst case scenario for me.
..hope you get thru this ok up there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Recon still not finding much above 75 or 80 mph surface winds with Sandy.
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Do we get a Thelmores diagram with arrows etc? : )
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I'm working a lifeguard tower just north of Vero Beach. The swell built all day.[IMG]http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w407/ Snowynoosa/2012-10-25-18-28-53_deco.jpg[/IMG]
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Dropsonde just got 83mph surface winds.


Those are readings from over an hour ago, the first pass out of the center. For some reason big delay in reporting the dropsondes.
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e.cen.florida rain shower moved through cold rain drops
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
18Z GFDL coming in just north of Virginia Beach at 929 MB.
thats only about 30miles north of me! O-O
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It seems like the models are beginning to zero in on a landfall around New Jersey, at least for tonight. I'm definitely going to keep an eye one it, since with these tracks it seems the center could make its way right over Philly and me. I also wonder what the strength predictions will be like later on, since it's dicey to deal with those transitions out of tropical characteristics... But for now, I think an impact of some sort is imminent. Where and how strong remains to be seen for me, but if I had to choose a location now I'd pick northern New Jersey. Though with each day my personal predictions go further South. Southern New Jersey or Delaware would be the worst case scenario for me.
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274. JRRP
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As one who has observed weather for almost 20 years, and intensely for 10 years, this "situation" is one of the most fascinating I have ever seen!

You always hear about the "worst case" scenario, but it rarely ever happens...... I mean look at the storm last year that was touted as a super-storm for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, which turned into a super thud!

This is a big concern of mine, that folks in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast will not take this storm seriously! If that is the case, it is a major mistake! This storm has the potential to re-write the record book on "hybrid" storms.... I believe we will potentially see many record river/lake levels set, as heavy rainfall locally could last for 3-4 days! And on the coast, with the astronomical hide tide (full moon) already in place, tidal surge for New York city could set modern day records as well! Little doubt in my mind that most of Manhattan will under water!

Bottom line, in you live near the coast, or near a river, or live in/near a flood prone area, make your preparations NOW! Nothing in weather is written in stone, but for me there seems little doubt that this storm will be the worst to affect the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast in modern history!

Hopefully NOAA will do a superb job in getting the word out, and convincing folks of the possibility of loss of life, and certainly property damage approaching, perhaps surpassing a Billion dollars!

I wish harm to nobody, make that clear, but from a purely fan of weather, this will be absolutely thrilling and amazing to watch!!!! Storm of a lifetime!

Stay safe if you are in harms way!
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Hey everyone Amy here located in Dania Beach Florida snuggled cozily between Ft Lauderdale and Miami on the coast. Woke up this morning around 6 am to the loudest blast and the sky lit up and then of course the lights went out. Proceeded outside to see the powerline on the ground directly across the street all the way to the corner with the bushes on fire the line laying over cars..the next thing ya know the fireman says... CITIZENS of The united States residing on se 4th terrace please go in your homes and do not come back outside until we let you know...(he probably always wanted to do that..lol)needless to say the wind is still gusting and it sounds like someone is trying to open the door. Dont think I will be getting much sleep...
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**** ON NOW ******
This week on the Barometer Bob Show (10-25-12), His guests will be Larry Cosgrove, he will talk about Hurricane Sandy and what implications it may have for the Northeastern United States.
Also, Storm Chaser Adam Lucio, We will talk about a new project called Storm Assist.
Storm Assist is a collaborative effort by storm chasers to provide aid to communities directly impacted by damaging weather events. Visit the website at: http://stormassist.org/
The show starts at 8PM/7C at www.barometerbobshow.com
Join us in Storm Chat at http://irc.barometerbob.net/ sign in with your WU handle.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
gee GFS at 120 hours, on top of DC???
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
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267. NJ2S
What kind of whatches and warning should we expect in the NE? When ?
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Dropsonde just got 83mph surface winds.
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Quoting NorthernVADoS:


I think that's a shift west from 12z


Yes, west shift from 12Z to 18Z on HWRF


HOUR: 117.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 39.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -72.90 LAT: 40.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00
HOUR: 123.0 LONG: -74.50 LAT: 40.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -76.10 LAT: 40.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
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Looks like sunday is the bad day for NC..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
120 hours on the HWRF:

I'm not wishing bad on anyone but that would be a better solution for my area.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

HWRF has consistently been taking it way out to sea, it was basically the lone holdout. It's on board for a US landfall now though.


Still appears to be one of the easternmost models now, though...with all the other models seeming to shift southward.
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100 mph may be generous at this point.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Only in our coastal waters. No watches or warnings over land, and we are not expecting any either.
hopefully it will stay that way, im on the west cost of florida and hardly a breeze or drop of rain all day long, so it does look like a coastal event until it comes ashore up north
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting NorthernVADoS:


I think that's a shift west from 12z

HWRF has consistently been taking it way out to sea, it was basically the lone holdout. It's on board for a US landfall now though.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
745 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012

PRC007-021-025-031-033-061-063-087-127-137-139-26 0045-
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-GUAYNABO PR-GURABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-TOA BAJA PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-
LOIZA PR-
745 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012

AT 741 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE MUNICIPALITIES OF GURABO AND TRUJILLO
ALTO NORTHWEST THROUGH SAN JUAN. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
STEADILY NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 830 PM AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS
THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY
ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD
WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$



BCS
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120 hours on the HWRF:

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Quoting allancalderini:
Looks like Valerie forms south of Florida I am thinking from what it develops.
gee sure is an interesting time huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting TomballTXPride:

18Z HWRF just about done, too. Huge shift back to the east from the 12Z, and way overdoing the intensity again. What's new.



I think that's a shift west from 12z
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes stay safe up there and if you still have power please let us know how its going for you as she passes
ill try and post pictures of the storm passing if powers not out
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY BETWEEN CAT ISLAND AND ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
..gee still going nnw
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting LargoFl:
I see they have extended tropical storm warnings up to south carolina now?...looks like it


Only in our coastal waters. No watches or warnings over land, and we are not expecting any either.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1785
100mph and slowing down
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Down to 100mph.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY BETWEEN CAT ISLAND AND ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
264HR GFS
Looks like Valerie forms south of Florida I am thinking from what it develops.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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