Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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From Jeff Masters last year:

The best source of [surge] information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps.

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from the 8pm disc...........ISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW LARGER IN SIZE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SQUALLS
WITH WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
North Jersey here, and I'm watching this storm VERY closely.

We were without power and without safe drinking water for a week after Irene. Fortunately my house didn't sustain any damage, but homes and businesses in my immediate area suffered. If the media hadn't "hyped" Irene so much, I wouldn't have taken it as seriously, and I might not have been so well prepared. I lugged a lot of bottled water home from the store, thinking I wouldn't need it, and it served us well when the tap would only produce a brownish-orange trickle. I filled up a lot of big containers of water beforehand, thinking I wouldn't need them, but it saved the day when we didn't have enough water pressure to flush the toilet!

Tomorrow we're heading to the store to replace and supplement some of our stores of canned food and water jugs. We have lots of batteries, books, and a little radio. I'm hoping against all hope that I don't end up with extended power outages or inland flooding. However, no matter what happens, at this point it looks like I WILL be affected somehow by this storm. If you're ANYWHERE near a coast, it never hurts to have that extra food and water on hand.

I'm no expert on getting through a storm. I'm not a meteorologist and I don't live in an area that gets frequent strong hurricanes. But I have been on this planet long enough to know when to take a storm seriously, and this is one of those times. Please, please be prepared.
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Quoting goosegirl1:

Sorry, I lost internet service st a critical time. I ain't laughing, I'm too busy fretting over the models.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
Quoting AllStar17:


The winds deepening? I don't see that.

The NHC forecasts it as the storm interacts with the shortwave trough.

48H 27/1800Z 29.8N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 33.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 37.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
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remember the burma landfaller? its been crazy since. global warming
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4724
Quoting Trixie1984:
Worried about about impact here in Ocean County. No one is taking this seriously.
I'm in Ocean County as well! I'm taking it seriously. Seaside here. Where are you?
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GFS is nasty
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18Z GFDL






Link
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah. The NW movement, the fact that it's deepening upon landfall (opposite of most east coast hurricanes), and how the air coming into its back side is cold enough for snow, all make this something I can't remember ever happening.


Have you ever come across one? I know you may have seen some of my posts and thought I was loosing it, but I was up late looking at everything and it looks like the hurricane will actually be inside the other low. The pressure fall could be phenomenal. Any ideas?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
Quoting AllStar17:


The winds deepening? I don't see that.


Pressure, on the models, getting lower at New England landfall.
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Although it is rather preliminary to start talking about potential surge levels on landfall the current the forecast does not look good.

You might be looking at an Ike like situation. A large system, not extremely fast and a poorly protected coastline. A 200 miles continental shelf doesnt help either.

If this hits south of New York, it means New York is on the "bad side" of the cane. I sincerely hope its not.
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As of now my tennis match set for 9:30 Friday morning on a barrier island along the east coast of Central Florida is still ON.

What it takes to play tennis in wind gusts is patience, perseverence, and strong legs.
Fortunately, I have two out of three.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah. The NW movement, the fact that it's deepening upon landfall (opposite of most east coast hurricanes), and how the air coming into its back side is cold enough for snow, all make this something I can't remember ever happening.


The winds deepening? I don't see that.
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Quoting Grothar:
Well, I got laughed at a couple of times earlier yesterday and today when I said the storm might hit the NE below 940 mb.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
Quoting Grothar:
I don't think I have ever seen a hurricane that mixed the a Nor'easter and actually move INLAND. I have seen them slide along the coast and go out to sea. It this does come to pass, it will be something I have never seen that I can remember.


Yeah. The NW movement, the fact that it's deepening upon landfall (opposite of most east coast hurricanes), and how the air coming into its back side is cold enough for snow, all make this something I can't remember ever happening.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Well, looks I'll be sitting back this weekend eating popcorn watching this freak show of "Sandina" (the merging of the hurricane name and the first winter storm) unfold before my eyes. I live in Charleston S.C. so i might even get to see some live action!
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For the information of those not yet in the know, the little eye-shaped island on the western / left edge of the white-cold part of the CDO is New Providence, site of Nassau, the Bahamas's capital city. The thin bent line in the centre of the white is Eleuthera. Sandy's COC is between it and the island to its southeast [Cat Island].

I see some potential for this to maintain cat 2 overnight, despite the possibly devastating impacts of westerly shear.
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Quoting Grothar:
Absolutley ridiculous.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
going to be some severe beach erosion over on the east coast.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
What is a 928 STORM equilvant to in a hybrid situation...seems unlikely but just for kicks wanted to know.
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Hybrid of Sandy, Winter Storm Threatens East Coast


(WASHINGTON ) — Much of the U.S. East Coast has a good chance of getting blasted by gale-force winds, flooding, heavy rain and maybe even snow early next week by an unusual hybrid of hurricane and winter storm, federal and private forecasters say.

Though still projecting several days ahead of Halloween week, the computer models are spooking meteorologists. Government scientists said Wednesday the storm has a 70 percent chance of smacking the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.


Hurricane Sandy in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North are predicted to collide, sloshing and parking over the country’s most populous coastal corridor starting Sunday. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say.

“It’ll be a rough couple days from Hatteras up to Cape Cod,” said forecaster Jim Cisco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction center in College Park, Md. “We don’t have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.”

It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear. They say it has all the earmarks of a billion-dollar storm.

Some have compared it to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but Cisco said that one didn’t hit as populated an area and is not comparable to what the East Coast may be facing. Nor is it like last year’s Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowstorm in the Northeast.

(PHOTOS: Hurricane Isaac Takes Aim on New Orleans )

This has much more mess potential because it is a combination of different storm types that could produce a real whopper of weather problems, meteorologists say.

“The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I’m thinking a billion,” said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private service Weather Underground. “Yeah, it will be worse.”

But this is several days in advance, when weather forecasts are far less accurate. The National Hurricane Center only predicts five days in advance, and on Wednesday their forecasts had what’s left of Sandy off the North Carolina coast on Monday. But the hurricane center’s chief hurricane specialist, James Franklin, said the threat keeps increasing for “a major impact in the Northeast, New York area. In fact it would be such a big storm that it would affect all of the Northeast.”

The forecasts keep getting gloomier and more convincing with every day, several experts said.

(MORE: 20 Years After Hurricane Andrew, Storm Costs and Ideology Loom Over Florida )

Cisco said the chance of the storm smacking the East jumped from 60 percent to 70 percent on Wednesday. Masters was somewhat skeptical on Tuesday, giving the storm scenario just a 40 percent likelihood, but on Wednesday he also upped that to 70 percent. The remaining computer models that previously hadn’t shown the merger and mega-storm formation now predict a similar scenario.

The biggest question mark is snow, and that depends on where the remnants of Sandy turn inland. The computer model that has been leading the pack in predicting the hybrid storm has it hitting around Delaware. But another model has the storm hitting closer to Maine. If it hits Delaware, the chances of snow increase in that region. If it hits farther north, chances for snow in the mid-Atlantic and even up to New York are lessened, Masters said.

NOAA’s Cisco said he could see the equivalent of several inches of snow or rain in the mid-Atlantic, depending on where the storm ends up. In the mountains, snow may be measured in feet instead of inches.

By SETH BORENSTEIN
Associated Press writer Tony Winton contributed to this report from Miami.


Link
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I don't think I have ever seen a hurricane that mixed the a Nor'easter and actually move INLAND. I have seen them slide along the coast and go out to sea. It this does come to pass, it will be something I have never seen that I can remember.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
If this storm hits New York, they should have Joe Bastardi broadcast live from up in the crown of the statue of liberty. : )
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Quoting AussieStorm:
thank you for that aussie..this monster is HUGE in area when it gets up there huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting kimoskee:
Kingston, Jamaica (Norbrook) Happy to report I survived Sandy with some leaking and one less Pear (avocado) tree. The usual damage to trees and plants.

Power and internet returned this evening but I was fortunate as we have a genny.

The worst damaged area on the eastern side of the island. Damage assessment on going. Curfews are possible in areas without power. Petrojam (gas refinery) back up and running.

Only 8 shelters remain open. A number of rooftops were lost. There is some infrastructure damage.

It has started raining again as I'm typing.

We are thankful as it could have been much worse for us.
Happy to hear you made it through ok. My son-in-law in Mandeville said some tree damage and roof damage but not as bad as it could have been. I don't know if they lost power there or not.
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Climate-changing methane ‘rapidly destabilizing’ off East Coast, study finds
Posted on October 25, 2012


October 25, 2012 – NEW YORK – A changing Gulf Stream off the East Coast has destabilized frozen methane deposits trapped under nearly 4,000 square miles of seafloor, scientists reported Wednesday. And since methane is even more potent than carbon dioxide as a global warming gas, the researchers said, any large-scale release could have significant climate impacts. Temperature changes in the Gulf Stream are “rapidly destabilizing methane hydrate along a broad swathe of the North American margin,” the experts said in a study published Wednesday in the peer-reviewed journal Nature. Using seismic records and ocean models, the team estimated that 2.5 gigatonnes of frozen methane hydrate are being destabilized and could separate into methane gas and water. It is not clear if that is happening yet, but that methane gas would have the potential to rise up through the ocean and into the atmosphere, where it would add to the greenhouse gases warming Earth. The 2.5 gigatonnes isn’t enough to trigger a sudden climate shift, but the team worries that other areas around the globe might be seeing a similar destabilization. “It is unlikely that the western North Atlantic margin is the only area experiencing changing ocean currents,” they noted. “Our estimate … may therefore represent only a fraction of the methane hydrate currently destabilizing globally.” The wider destabilization evidence, co-author Ben Phrampus told NBC News, includes data from the Arctic and Alaska’s northern slope in the Beaufort Sea. And it’s not just under the seafloor that methane has been locked up. Some Arctic land area are seeing permafrost thaw, which could release methane stored there as well. An expert who was not part of the study said it suggests that methane could become a bigger climate factor than carbon dioxide. “We may approach a turning point” from a warming driven by man-made carbon dioxide to a warming driven by methane, Jurgen Mienert, the geology department chair at Norway’s University of Tromso, told NBC News. “The interactions between the warming Arctic Ocean and the potentially huge methane-ice reservoirs beneath the Arctic Ocean floor point towards increasing instability,” he added. –USNEWSNBC
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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
Worried about about impact here in Ocean County. No one is taking this seriously.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Read Jeff Masters earlier blog about possible effects of Irene

quote:

NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street,


I don't think it can be emphasized enough that the angle this storm approaches the coast will be key to the surge in NY harbor. Very few storms have approached from the east-southeast. I believe that the worst case scenario on the SLOSH models for NY included a cat. 3 making landfall in southern NJ heading westbound. Irene's surge wasn't that bad because it passed just east of NY moving north.
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Duplicate
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Well, I got laughed at a couple of times earlier yesterday and today when I said the storm might hit the NE below 940 mb.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
Quoting longislander102:
Checking in from the south shore of Long Island in New York.

Did I hear the "Weather Channel" say that essentially it will be a hurricane inside of a northeaster? omg....

Doomed, here on Long Island. lol

That pretty much sums it up.
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Quoting NJ2S:
If the storm comes in to the jersey shore south of NYC will the Hudson river rise and overtop.... My home and my job are both located just yards dro
The rivers edge.... Just wondering what to except here in Hoboken/weehawken nj


Unfortunately, there will be astronomical high tides early next week as well.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1769
Quoting NJ2S:
If the storm comes in to the jersey shore south of NYC will the Hudson river rise and overtop.... My home and my job are both located just yards dro
The rivers edge.... Just wondering what to except here in Hoboken/weehawken nj


Read Jeff Masters earlier blog about possible effects of Irene

quote:

NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street,

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=1899
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Quoting longislander102:
Checking in from the south shore of Long Island in New York.

Did I hear the "Weather Channel" say that essentially it will be a hurricane inside of a northeaster? omg....

Doomed, here on Long Island. lol


The Weather Channel has gotten significantly worse year by year over the past several years. They are terrible.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL FEEL
THE IMPACTS OF A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RESULTANT SIGNIFICANT URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER
FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND
POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS ON SANDY...AND MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Checking in from the south shore of Long Island in New York.

Did I hear the "Weather Channel" say that essentially it will be a hurricane inside of a northeaster? omg....

Doomed, here on Long Island. lol
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Quoting popartpete:
My community, Seaside Heights, New Jersey, which blog readers may know as the location where 'Jersey Shore' is filmed, is directly in between the current points where the GFS and the Euro are anticipating the center of Sandy will make landfall. There's so many spaghetti models over my area that it's like an Italian restaurant! I hope that The Weather Channel keeps programming focused on Sandy tonight rather than airing some 'show'. That's just SO annoying!


I always figured your area would pay for hosting such a terrible show ;)
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Quoting NJ2S:
If the storm comes in to the jersey shore south of NYC will the Hudson river rise and overtop.... My home and my job are both located just yards dro
The rivers edge.... Just wondering what to except here in Hoboken/weehawken nj


Sorry but my Crystal ball is broken. However, if the model runs continue to show a NJ Landfall -- you might want to get your important papers and irreplacable things packed up/moved/secured, etc... Same thing for work.

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I'm thinking that the models are somewhat over-deepening the storm and I wouldn't be surprised to see the projected track shifted back up towards my neck of the woods.
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Quoting NJ2S:
If the storm comes in to the jersey shore south of NYC will the Hudson river rise and overtop.... My home and my job are both located just yards dro
The rivers edge.... Just wondering what to except here in Hoboken/weehawken nj
best thing to do is wait this out, keep in tune with your local NWS and their warnings, they know your area and will certainly be warning folks in advance
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
My community, Seaside Heights, New Jersey, which blog readers may know as the location where 'Jersey Shore' is filmed, is directly in between the current points where the GFS and the Euro are anticipating the center of Sandy will make landfall. There's so many spaghetti models over my area that it's like an Italian restaurant! I hope that The Weather Channel keeps programming focused on Sandy tonight rather than airing some 'show'. That's just SO annoying!
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Kingston, Jamaica (Norbrook) Happy to report I survived Sandy with some leaking and one less Pear (avocado) tree. The usual damage to trees and plants.

Power and internet returned this evening but I was fortunate as we have a genny.

The worst damaged area on the eastern side of the island. Damage assessment on going. Curfews are possible in areas without power. Petrojam (gas refinery) back up and running.

Only 8 shelters remain open. A number of rooftops were lost. There is some infrastructure damage.

It has started raining again as I'm typing.

We are thankful as it could have been much worse for us.
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292. bwat
Quoting AztecCe:
thats only about 30miles north of me! O-O
You must be close.....E. City here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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