Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Pfft I wish.This year has not been nice.It's one extreme to the next.Heat,humidity,rain,drought,tornados,high winds,hail yeah we've had 'em all almost.May have to add what ever Sandy becomes to the list if model forecast come to fuition.

I remember those lines of storms... u'd get it and warn me and then i get it and the other way around.......... wish stuff wuld calm down
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Quoting AussieStorm:
LarryCosgrove ‏@LarryCosgrove
Hurricane Sandy covers an area from South America to the Sargasso Sea. An eventual threat to Northeast USA (Mon)

boy she is HUGE
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting Dakster:
This is almost comical. No schools tomorrow, but all county offices are open and normal schedules. This means trash pickup. I have already had to chase down my trashcans in the backyard twice. (I got smart the second time and filled them up with trash and moved them to a better area)I can only imagine the what the trashcans will look like in the morning if everyone puts them out....


Ha. We don't have tons of weather here, really, but there was a time a few years back right after Christmas where the city encouraged everybody to put out their old Christmas trees for street pickup, right before what turned out to be a decent windstorm. I just remember sitting on the front porch to smoke and laughing my ass off at the trees all hopping along down the street like an endless train of very merry tumbleweeds.

I don't think this has been on anybody's, um, radar up until now. Local governments can be slow on the uptake in some places.

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LarryCosgrove ‏@LarryCosgrove
Hurricane Sandy covers an area from South America to the Sargasso Sea. An eventual threat to Northeast USA (Mon)

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437. NJ2S
Quoting NJcat3cane:
anyone wanna take a guess at evacuation notices up here in coastal new jersey?(South jersey)


im thinking definately the barrier islands by sunday or monday am.....i just have a feeling they arent going to be as extensive as last year eventhough they probably should be
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Quoting Doppler22:

It seems as if everythin u get it then i do................ So stop getting stuff!!!! :p
Pfft I wish.This year has not been nice.It's one extreme to the next.Heat,humidity,rain,drought,tornados,high winds,hail yeah we've had 'em all almost.May have to add what ever Sandy becomes to the list if model forecast come to fuition.
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Quoting Doppler22:

I dont live on towns.... im not a giant :P............... York,PA



Hee hee, I just saw that:) I wondered if you hovered above. I live further south and east of York, but not so far away that I'm out of the woods. I like the area- we visit from time to time, and go to rabbit shows in York, Lebanon, and Lancaster. I like to take Rt 30 from Greencastle and drive around all the circles :)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
434. Zappy
What can CT expect in terms of impacts? The models have been shifting from NE landfall to Mid-Atlantic...
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-
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HURRICANE SANDY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
829 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY BETWEEN CAT ISLAND AND ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...FROM SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND OUT 20 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION
ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8N...LONGITUDE 75.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 660 MILES SOUTH
OF WILMINGTON NC...OR ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE
BEACH SC. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 15 FT
WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT EXPECTED.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT AND BE SECURED.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting BahaHurican:
Power's gone again... :o(

Least u live in a warmer place where it doesnt go down to the 40's at night... I really dont want to loose power
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This just updated for the 0z models:



The NHC forecast remains west of consensus for much of the period but ends up right in the middle at landfall.

If those models were to verify, that would give Sandy more time over the Gulf Stream before the left turn, at which point she would take the most direct route from the warm waters to land and spending very little time over the colder waters. Scary setup.
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Quoting RadarRich:

Sandy has kinda gone into the mellow mode at present...Not too much happening at present..
As weather enthusiates, I believe most of us who follow the Tropics go through peaks and valleys. Following any tropical system is like riding a roller coaster of emotions. Sandy is one complex ride, with a lot of ups and downs. In the first few days, Sandy was a meandering ride with a few twists and turns, and then after Jamaica, just before Cuba, we all were going up to the top of highest point of the coaster, and experienced that amazing rush of adrenaline as Sandy went into RI, before landfall, the rush was there. The thought of what the future would bring, whether it would be impacts to the SE coast and the eventual NE scenarios had us all in a high state of the unknown, high expectancy. Then/now, after the Cuba crossing and the storm lessening in intensity brings us back down a tad to a valley of sorts. Of course, there is still a lot ahead with Sandy, especially for the upper NE coast of the conus, which will swing the roller coaster ride back up toward another peak. Hopefully, there is not a lot of damage done or harm to anyone in the future, but we all will keep our seat belts on and see where the ride takes us next, Just a thought on how Tropical Weather can affect us all, especially myself. Keep the passion....
I gotta tellya, this sure don't feel like no valley here under Sandy's CDO....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Power's gone again... :o(


You guys holding up ok over there I see?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting NOVArules:


Hmmm, it appears that Sandy isn't hype and is an actual threat, unlike most storms that are forcasted to affect my area.


It seems Irene was just a warm-up and a sign of things to come.
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anyone wanna take a guess at evacuation notices up here in coastal new jersey?(South jersey)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Those are readings from over an hour ago, the first pass out of the center. For some reason big delay in reporting the dropsondes.
Hey nrt. Just wondering, do you have the link to the powerpoint to which these images you posted last night came from?




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Power's gone again... :o(
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Quoting goosegirl1:



What town do you live on?

I dont live on towns.... im not a giant :P............... York,PA
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Quoting AllStar17:
Virginia through central New Jersey or so looking most likely for a landfall at this point. The threat for a New England landfall is looking less likely.



Hmmm, it appears that Sandy isn't hype and is an actual threat, unlike most storms that are forcasted to affect my area.
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Quoting Doppler22:
Woo that means im gonna be in the middle of it.... (SE PA)



What town do you live on?
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes it would seem.Nature wants to put us through hell.Maybe someone did a vodoo spell on congress here D.C and ever since we've had horrid unusual weather.lol.

It seems as if everythin u get it then i do................ So stop getting stuff!!!! :p
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419. bwat
Quoting AllStar17:
Virginia through central New Jersey or so looking most likely for a landfall at this point. The threat for a New England landfall is looking less likely.

Wavy TV 10 in Hampton Roads is gonna go nuts over that GFDL run. Time to watch Andy Fox wade around in hip boots.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 353
Quoting Dovienya7:


Same here in northern Virginia, but I can understand why. We've had a couple of false alarms in the two years I've lived here; the natives tell me that we get them pretty frequently. We've seen predictions of major damage and then just got some light rain.

As far as I'm concerned, though, it never hurts to have some extra non-perishable food and bottled water around.


Absolutely!!
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you gotta love'em......................................NOAA to East: Beware of coming 'Frankenstorm'
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting AllStar17:
Virginia through central New Jersey or so looking most likely for a landfall at this point. The threat for a New England landfall is looking less likely.

Woo that means im gonna be in the middle of it.... (SE PA)
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Quoting Doppler22:

Hey Wash.... were in it again aren't we? :p
Yes it would seem.Nature wants to put us through hell.Maybe someone did a vodoo spell on congress here D.C and ever since we've had horrid unusual weather.lol.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This just updated for the 0z models:



The NHC forecast remains west of consensus for much of the period but ends up right in the middle at landfall.


Looks like perhaps a little sharper left hook to landfall indicated in the new models.
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This is almost comical. No schools tomorrow, but all county offices are open and normal schedules. This means trash pickup. I have already had to chase down my trashcans in the backyard twice. (I got smart the second time and filled them up with trash and moved them to a better area)I can only imagine the what the trashcans will look like in the morning if everyone puts them out....
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25.000N 76.050W
From 32 at 40 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 46.0 mph)
57 knots
(~ 65.5 mph)

Center is a lil south & east of this location, looks stalled or moving very slowly to me.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, I just went outside to move my car a bit... the wind is gusting to 50 kts out there... I'd say it's steady at TS force. However, it's very, very dry.

All our fruit trees in our yard are already down. They all came down during Irene last year, as some may recall, so they were pretty vulnerable to begin with. Poor Mom... no bananas again for a while... :o)

I hope this is as bad as it gets, and that we get to keep our power.

EDIT: This was about 15 minutes ago.
glad you still have power and are ok..stay safe ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101

Sandy has kinda gone into the mellow mode at present...Not too much happening at present..
As weather enthusiates, I believe most of us who follow the Tropics go through peaks and valleys. Following any tropical system is like riding a roller coaster of emotions. Sandy is one complex ride, with a lot of ups and downs. In the first few days, Sandy was a meandering ride with a few twists and turns, and then after Jamaica, just before Cuba, we all were going up to the top of highest point of the coaster, and experienced that amazing rush of adrenaline as Sandy went into RI, before landfall, the rush was there. The thought of what the future would bring, whether it would be impacts to the SE coast and the eventual NE scenarios had us all in a high state of the unknown, high expectancy. Then/now, after the Cuba crossing and the storm lessening in intensity brings us back down a tad to a valley of sorts. Of course, there is still a lot ahead with Sandy, especially for the upper NE coast of the conus, which will swing the roller coaster ride back up toward another peak. Hopefully, there is not a lot of damage done or harm to anyone in the future, but we all will keep our seat belts on and see where the ride takes us next, Just a thought on how Tropical Weather can affect us all, especially myself. Keep the passion....
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Well, I just went outside to move my car a bit... the wind is gusting to 50 kts out there... I'd say it's steady at TS force. However, it's very, very dry.

All our fruit trees in our yard are already down. They all came down during Irene last year, as some may recall, so they were pretty vulnerable to begin with. Poor Mom... no bananas again for a while... :o)

I hope this is as bad as it gets, and that we get to keep our power.

EDIT: This was about 15 minutes ago.
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Virginia through central New Jersey or so looking most likely for a landfall at this point. The threat for a New England landfall is looking less likely.

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Quoting NJcat3cane:
Brigantine/Atlantic city here!..its gonna be a very long few days for us..its not gonna be good here..mass flooding from surge,wind and waves if its to our south near capemay


I know! I'm not on a barrier island, but I can't fathom the possible impact on every one in those areas. My property is densely treed and the property dips from the roadway. I flood from just a heavy down pour.. Very nerve wracking!
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hi y'all
sandy update
on and of rain,heavy wind at times
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This just updated for the 0z models:



The NHC forecast remains west of consensus for much of the period but ends up right in the middle at landfall.

omg...screwed up
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.As the doom rolls by followed by the gloom...

Hey Wash.... were in it again aren't we? :p
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This just updated for the 0z models:



The NHC forecast remains west of consensus for much of the period but ends up right in the middle at landfall.
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Quoting Chicklit:

It's unsettling to look at the models...Usually it's us hyping the storm.


LOL. That's a new one, Chicklit. The blog was conservative on a storm and the models were hyping.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25493
Holy crap... she just keeps growing. Make her stop!
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Quoting guygee:
LOL. When I used to play tennis I loved to play in the wind because I could use a lot of spin to my advantage, and watch the opponents get all frustrated. The only thing that bothered me was the toss on my serve. I would compensate by just spinning it in.
Good Luck!

haha! thanks, Guygee. I lower my toss in windy conditions. Spin is king in the wind. I really hope we get to play tomorrow. Will tell you all how it goes if we do. goodnight!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting Grothar:


Tell them to hold off on the exams. It is an emergency and you are needed elsewhere.

You know me well enough that I have never hyped or wishcast any storm, but this one has me baffled. I keep looking at certain models (you know which ones) and it doesn't make sense, but there it is. You think we are off on this one? Seriously.


Well I hope we are. I have a hard time believing these sub-940 and sub-930mb model forecasts after the storm leaves the gulf stream, but then again this kind of a situation doesn't really happen. Let's just hope that this setup is so unstable that the models are also unstable and overbaking it.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.As the doom rolls by followed by the gloom...

It's unsettling to look at the models...Usually it's us hyping the storm.
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Quoting Dovienya7:


My fiance is working in Leesburg right now! Luckily he's off Sunday and Monday.


Prime time to track and watch the storm :)
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Quoting Chicklit:
As of now my tennis match set for 9:30 Friday morning on a barrier island along the east coast of Central Florida is still ON.

What it takes to play tennis in wind gusts is patience, perseverence, and strong legs.
Fortunately, I have two out of three.
LOL. When I used to play tennis I loved to play in the wind because I could use a lot of spin to my advantage, and watch the opponents get all frustrated. The only thing that bothered me was the toss on my serve. I would compensate by just spinning it in.
Good Luck!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
Quoting NorthernVADoS:


Leesburg


My fiance is working in Leesburg right now! Luckily he's off Sunday and Monday.
Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 21

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.