Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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Well, I definitely got approximately nothing done at work today, besides watching all of this!

Sandy's definitely been on the news today and yesterday here in Boston, so the word is getting out. Most people I've talked to are actually preparing, too, which is even better.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
So what does that mean?,


Sarcasm wash...
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490. NJ2S
Quoting NJcat3cane:
ya im in Brigantine a barrier island and it was a complete ghost town last year, i stayed it wasent bad at all other then massive waves, but they should be more this year i agree with them not being. just wanted to see other peoples thoughts


yes im very familiar with brigantine...been there many times great beach...hope it does ok in the storm :/

im right on the hudson river in weehawken nj right across from manhattan ...im afraid of how high the river and harbor could potentially get
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:


I'm in Western Nassau County in the Franklin Square area. Where here are you from?


I am in Massapequa in eastern Nassau County.
Member Since: August 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 145
LinkInteresting radar of incoming into SEFL..look at that line.

.
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Quoting RadarRich:
Sandy has kinda gone into the mellow mode at present...Not too much happening at present..



429. BahaHurican 1:12 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
I gotta tellya, this sure don't feel like no valley here under Sandy's CDO....


I take that back about the valley. You are so right. I think I generalized in my comment. Every system does affect people, did not mean to discount those dealing with Sandy at present, especially right now in the Bahamas. Stay safe, and hope all goes ok for you....
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39737
Quoting Grothar:
I'm not impressed.


So what does that mean?,
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17164
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
400 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL FEEL
THE IMPACTS OF A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RESULTANT SIGNIFICANT URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER
FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND
POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS ON SANDY...AND MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39737
I'm still not really taking this serious until maybe Sunday.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17164
Quoting Grothar:
I'm not impressed.




That mauve band goes right over my next-door neighbour's house.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39737
Quoting Grothar:


I was born in Lloyd Harbor in Huntington.


Wow! REALLY nice area! Makes Garden City look poor ;)
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Sandy is stalled
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8:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 25
Location: 24.8°N 75.8°W

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 0:43:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°52'N 75°52'W (24.8667N 75.8667W)
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:


I'm in Western Nassau County in the Franklin Square area. Where here are you from?


I was born in Lloyd Harbor in Huntington.
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Hey everyone! Long time lurker here checking in from greenacres/lake worth fl :-) been lurking, or should I call it stalking, since 2005 actually. Anyway, hi!
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Quoting Grothar:


What part are you from? I was born on Long Island


I'm in Western Nassau County in the Franklin Square area. Where here are you from?
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another squall line about to come in.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39737
Quoting Grothar:
I'm not impressed.




Yeah, RIP...this storm is stoopid and totally weak.
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Ok................ done posting and commenting on here cya......
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:
If she makes actual landfall in southern NJ, I imagine it will still be pretty bad here on Long Island (Especially western LI near NYC), since she's such a large system? Every time I check the models, they get a little farther south and away from us as far as actual landfall... but of course we all know it will keep changing!

People are finally starting to hear about it here now. Unfortunately, most will not take it seriously thinking that "Oh it's just hype like Irene, and Irene wasn't that bad!". Most people I know who say that were sleeping that night she came through here. I was up that whole night until about noon the following day. It was pretty scary, I never experienced a storm like that. I watched a huge chunk of the tree outside my window snap off like a twig and crash into the neighbors fence, demolishing it. Irene uprooted gigantic trees all around here. Not to mention she made a huge branch fall on the power lines above our house, causing our the lines right above the front of our house to go on fire. The fire department got it out after a few hours, and then we lost power for 4 days.

The ironic part about that, is that the fire and power outage didn't happen until at about 10PM the night she already went through here. So it was calm and clear out, we thought we were out of the woods.


What part are you from? I was born on Long Island
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I'm not impressed.


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.
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If she makes actual landfall in southern NJ, I imagine it will still be pretty bad here on Long Island (Especially western LI near NYC), since she's such a large system? Every time I check the models, they get a little farther south and away from us as far as actual landfall... but of course we all know it will keep changing!

People are finally starting to hear about it here now. Unfortunately, most will not take it seriously thinking that "Oh it's just hype like Irene, and Irene wasn't that bad!". Most people I know who say that were sleeping that night she came through here. I was up that whole night until about noon the following day. It was pretty scary, I never experienced a storm like that. I watched a huge chunk of the tree outside my window snap off like a twig and crash into the neighbors fence, demolishing it. Irene uprooted gigantic trees all around here. Not to mention she made a huge branch fall on the power lines above our house, causing our the lines right above the front of our house to go on fire. The fire department got it out after a few hours, and then we lost power for 4 days.

The ironic part about that, is that the fire and power outage didn't happen until at about 10PM the night she already went through here. So it was calm and clear out, we thought we were out of the woods.
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NAEFS at 120 hours..same thing..this is bad
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39737
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Quoting goosegirl1:



We live south of Cumberland, MD in West by-god Virginia- a pretty place, but not for the faint-hearted. I don't mean inbred cannibal zombies, either:) This year you had to be ready for any weather but what you expected, including this storm.

Yup... any weather... and ur lucky....... u might get snow!!! I want snow...
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Quoting Doppler22:

Even into the Chesapeake?


This is just my graphic...but the GFDL does indicate a landfall just north of Virginia Beach...which is accounted for on the graphic. Nothing official on that graphic, though.
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Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 01:10Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 0:43:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°52'N 75°52'W (24.8667N 75.8667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 93 miles (150 km) to the E (98°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SE (126°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 212° at 89kts (From the SSW at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.70 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,442m (8,012ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,446m (8,025ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Fix Determined By: Penetration
O. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
Remarks Section:
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 8,000 feet
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the east quadrant at 22:21:51Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:54:48Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) from the flight level center
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Quoting Dakster:
I think and hope that this is the worst for south Florida... I also hope that the rest of the east coast fairs just as well...


Yeah it's been not bad at all here in Westchester area of Miami. Some rain, and one nasty gusty squall around 4pm but other than that, just light winds (15-20 mph sustained) and some gusts about 35 maybe at the max.

We got a LOT more from Isaac. Considering what I was expecting, I am sighing from relief.

Oh and wishcasters too bad your doomsday predictions for Miami / South Fla didn't happen. (smirk)
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Quoting AussieStorm:
LarryCosgrove ‏@LarryCosgrove
Hurricane Sandy covers an area from South America to the Sargasso Sea. An eventual threat to Northeast USA (Mon)



Amazing.
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Quoting Doppler22:

Oh cool so were close :p



We live south of Cumberland, MD in West by-god Virginia- a pretty place, but not for the faint-hearted. I don't mean inbred cannibal zombies, either:) This year you had to be ready for any weather but what you expected, including this storm.
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GFS at 120 hours..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39737
Quoting AllStar17:
MY landfall probability graphic as of now (subject to change):

(click to enlarge)

Even into the Chesapeake?
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MY landfall probability graphic as of now (subject to change):

(click to enlarge)
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Quoting AussieStorm:
LarryCosgrove ‏@LarryCosgrove
Hurricane Sandy covers an area from South America to the Sargasso Sea. An eventual threat to Northeast USA (Mon)



Hey, Aussie. I don't know if I have ever asked you, but have you ever been to the big Up Over?
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Quoting NJ2S:


im thinking definately the barrier islands by sunday or monday am.....i just have a feeling they arent going to be as extensive as last year eventhough they probably should be
ya im in Brigantine a barrier island and it was a complete ghost town last year, i stayed it wasent bad at all other then massive waves, but they should be more this year i agree with them not being. just wanted to see other peoples thoughts
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TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS
FRIDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS
SWELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AS WELL AS IN
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME OF IMPACT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR DETAILS REGARDING SANDY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39737
Quoting BahaHurican:
Our bigger problem during most 'canes is stifling heat... Irene's passage last year led me to purchase a battery-operated fan.

Despite its tropical nature, Sandy has ushered in below-80 [daytime] temps for the first time in ages... so while we don't enjoy the claustrophobia and nervousness associated with the storm, at least we get to be a bit cooler...

And Yes! the power came back on...


When Sandy pays me a visit... it culd go into the 30's at night... and without power i dont like that
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Quoting Grothar:


Trixie, you can't help what other people think. Just listen carefully to your local news. I am not one of the hypers, but this could be very serious. I hope it changes, but if it doesn't.....


So true... I find wunderground much more informative... the news just recaps the actual situation...much later....We have regurgitated local news..lol
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Quoting Levi32:


Well I hope we are. I have a hard time believing these sub-940 and sub-930mb model forecasts after the storm leaves the gulf stream, but then again this kind of a situation doesn't really happen. Let's just hope that this setup is so unstable that the models are also unstable and overbaking it.

Hope so also....But the bad feeling comes with all of the Reliable models showing those lowers values on pressure....And this storm is just only 4-5 days to landfall and the values are the same with every run
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


It seems Irene was just a warm-up and a sign of things to come.


Yep, get ready for round 2.
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446. flsky
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Ha. We don't have tons of weather here, really, but there was a time a few years back right after Christmas where the city encouraged everybody to put out their old Christmas trees for street pickup, right before what turned out to be a decent windstorm. I just remember sitting on the front porch to smoke and laughing my ass off at the trees all hopping along down the street like an endless train of very merry tumbleweeds.

I don't think this has been on anybody's, um, radar up until now. Local governments can be slow on the uptake in some places.


Actually, just saw on the news that schools are open tomorrow in Volusia County.
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Quoting Zappy:
What can CT expect in terms of impacts? The models have been shifting from NE landfall to Mid-Atlantic...
have to wait on that, things can and do often change over time, best to prepare and wait this out
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39737
Quoting Doppler22:

Least u live in a warmer place where it doesnt go down to the 40's at night... I really dont want to loose power
Our bigger problem during most 'canes is stifling heat... Irene's passage last year led me to purchase a battery-operated fan.

Despite its tropical nature, Sandy has ushered in below-80 [daytime] temps for the first time in ages... so while we don't enjoy the claustrophobia and nervousness associated with the storm, at least we get to be a bit cooler...

And Yes! the power came back on...

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Quoting goosegirl1:



Hee hee, I just saw that:) I wondered if you hovered above. I live further south and east of York, but not so far away that I'm out of the woods. I like the area- we visit from time to time, and go to rabbit shows in York, Lebanon, and Lancaster. I like to take Rt 30 from Greencastle and drive around all the circles :)

Oh cool so were close :p
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Pfft I wish.This year has not been nice.It's one extreme to the next.Heat,humidity,rain,drought,tornados,high winds,hail yeah we've had 'em all almost.May have to add what ever Sandy becomes to the list if model forecast come to fuition.

I remember those lines of storms... u'd get it and warn me and then i get it and the other way around.......... wish stuff wuld calm down
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.