Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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Apparently Sandy is turning into a Butterfly. lol
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oh is upgradeing too window 8 on friday?
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What if Sandy keeps weakening (wind-wise) and arrives in NYC as a TS?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting BahaHurican:


Any guesses on the centre location???
I would guess it is closing in on 26N 76W, right on the NHC track but maybe a little ahead of schedule.
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Quoting iamajeepmom:



We already have minor damage with queen palm fronds taking out lamppost and its still early


We just had a wind gust on our gauge that read 56 mph or 48.6 kts.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Dream Storm:

This Sandy thing stalls just west of Washington DC.... meanwhile a large diameter cat 5 blows up in the gulf and they do the fujiwara up and down the east coast as a sub zero arctic blast moves in, burying the east coast in 40 feet of snow and no one from DC is heard from until JUNE!

Say.... what would happen if a large asteroid landed in the middle of a large hurricane while a 9.0 earthquake hit?
Dear storm please visit MontanaZephyr and give them this storm of a life time.

Sincerly washingtonian115.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Dream Storm:

This Sandy thing stalls just west of Washington DC.... meanwhile a large diameter cat 5 blows up in the gulf and they do the fujiwara up and down the east coast as a sub zero arctic blast moves in, burying the east coast in 40 feet of snow and no one from DC is heard from until JUNE!

Say.... what would happen if a large asteroid landed in the middle of a large hurricane while a 9.0 earthquake hit?


You should make this into a book. You'll be rich!
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Dream Storm:

This Sandy thing stalls just west of Washington DC.... meanwhile a large diameter cat 5 blows up in the gulf and they do the fujiwara up and down the east coast as a sub zero arctic blast moves in, burying the east coast in 40 feet of snow and no one from DC is heard from until JUNE!

Say.... what would happen if a large asteroid landed in the middle of a large hurricane while a 9.0 earthquake hit?


The earthquake would cause the ground to open up and the asteroid and hurricane would be sucked into it... totally offsetting the total destruction that would've happened if only 1 of the 3 would've occured.....
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Good Evening Everyone!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13436
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Dream Storm:

This Sandy thing stalls just west of Washington DC.... meanwhile a large diameter cat 5 blows up in the gulf and they do the fujiwara up and down the east coast as a sub zero arctic blast moves in, burying the east coast in 40 feet of snow and no one from DC is heard from until JUNE!

Say.... what would happen if a large asteroid landed in the middle of a large hurricane while a 9.0 earthquake hit?


It would make for one wet shaky hole! LOL
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hello water puppy good to see ya
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Is anyone else in south fl tired if the local stations and their 24/7 coverage of almost tropical storm conditions. Every year it's worse than the previous.
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 195


Any guesses on the centre location???

EDIT: Kinda hard to gestimate if u can't even see the image... lol
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Dream Storm:

This Sandy thing stalls just west of Washington DC.... meanwhile a large diameter cat 5 blows up in the gulf and they do the fujiwara up and down the east coast as a sub zero arctic blast moves in, burying the east coast in 40 feet of snow and no one from DC is heard from until JUNE!

Say.... what would happen if a large asteroid landed in the middle of a large hurricane while a 9.0 earthquake hit?
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Quoting aquak9:
(hugs zoo)


Hugs back! Hows the weather at the other end of the state? Been a long time.
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Quoting Grothar:
I'm not impressed.


LOL. She's a tiny little thing, isn't she?
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(hugs zoo)
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Quoting SecretStormNerd:
Hey everyone! Long time lurker here checking in from greenacres/lake worth fl :-) been lurking, or should I call it stalking, since 2005 actually. Anyway, hi!


Hey there!
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Quoting Grothar:
Aw c'mon.

Thanks 1900hurricane.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
Quoting RadarRich:
Quoting RadarRich:
Sandy has kinda gone into the mellow mode at present...Not too much happening at present..



429. BahaHurican 1:12 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
I gotta tellya, this sure don't feel like no valley here under Sandy's CDO....


I take that back about the valley. You are so right. I think I generalized in my comment. Every system does affect people, did not mean to discount those dealing with Sandy at present, especially right now in the Bahamas. Stay safe, and hope all goes ok for you....
I understood your metaphor, which to me seemed to be characterizing the blog energy more than Sandy's... just found it ironic... lol

But there is a song for this...

"Be grateful,
because there's someone out there
that's worse off than you;
Be grateful,
because there's someone else
who'd love to be in your shoes."

So your valley may be someone else's hilltop... which explains why it's so windy up here... lol



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Heavy damage reported in Santiago, Cuba. 11 dead, including a 4-month old boy, says The Weather Channel via NBC there. The reporter said winds were about 114 mphs. I wonder if this will be upgraded post-season to a major?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
So what does that mean?,

That is 850 mb heights in decameters. Typically 850 mb heights are in the neighborhood of 150 dm or so, which can be seen across most of the United States. Higher heights = higher pressure (because 850 mb is higher up in the atmosphere) and vice versa. So, that 76 dm height associated with Sandy means that the 850 mb heights are about half as high as they usually are, which is indicative an extremely deep low pressure area. Also notice how much area is bottomed out on that scale. Really telling.
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Quoting Civicane49:


Looks like it's getting closer to Florida. It is really very windy with very high gusts. It has been getting worse since late afternoon.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
LinkInteresting radar of incoming into SEFL..look at that line.

.
.



We already have minor damage with queen palm fronds taking out lamppost and its still early
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Interesting boundary moving onshore now. Talking about the very linear streak. It's propagating westward.

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Quoting Grothar:


Does St. Rose of Lima still have the fairs?


Yes it does. I have worked them the last two years. My daughter goes to school there. Crazy amount of money they take in!

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Quoting pottery:

Thanks for that.


It really does, pot. And cheesecake like you never thought could be so good. Have you ever eaten in a Long Island diner?
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Good night all from Long Island, NY.

I will check in with you tomorrow. Love your posts and insight into this storm.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
LinkInteresting radar of incoming into SEFL..look at that line.

.
.


Stout winds gusting in Jupiter right now.
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Quoting longislander102:


Oh yes it is. Still as busy as ever!! Crowds of people all the time.


Does St. Rose of Lima still have the fairs?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
So I guess u use electric heat... no oil/coal/wood-burning furnace or fire?

One of the winters I spent in NC we had an unexpected cold snap. It was early enough that we hadn't done anything to get the furnace going, and it was a holiday weekend - everything was closed. I ended up camped out in front of the oven in the kitchen, with multiple socks and blankets.... it only dipped to the 40s, but for an inexperienced Bahamian, it was remarkably cold... I think I was prolly the happiest customer the oil delivery guy met in a Looooog while... lol


Glad you seem to be doing Ok Baha. The weather here is really miserable, very windy, rain bands causing lots of water. Its amazing to me that this storm is so far away and we are getting so much weather from it. We have gotten less weather from storms that are 50 miles away.
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11 have die in cuba from the storm and hvy damg
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Quoting AussieStorm:





thats gie me between 4-6 inches of tain closer to 6 since im right at the coast of N.C...thats nice! even thought weve already had our yearly rainfall plus some
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Quoting Grothar:


In case anybody wants to know, the Massapequa diner has the best rice pudding you ever tasted.

Thanks for that.
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Quoting Grothar:


Is The All American Hamburger place still there on Merrick?


Oh yes it is. Still as busy as ever!! Crowds of people all the time.
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Quoting goosegirl1:



We live south of Cumberland, MD in West by-god Virginia- a pretty place, but not for the faint-hearted. I don't mean inbred cannibal zombies, either:) This year you had to be ready for any weather but what you expected, including this storm.
I used to work in DC and every other weekend or so drive up into NE Ohio. Just to break up the boredom I took I-68 all the way to Morgantown a couple of times. It sure is a beautiful area...lucky you!

"Inbred cannibal zombies", lol. Further back I lived in NH for several years and we had a joke about one of those nearby little mountain towns having a "six finger outbreak"
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Quoting NJ2S:


yes im very familiar with brigantine...been there many times great beach...hope it does ok in the storm :/

im right on the hudson river in weehawken nj right across from manhattan ...im afraid of how high the river and harbor could potentially get
o wow cool haha.. ya its nice here..havent had much damage in many years from a storm except the derencho few months back but ya i think flooding will be a problem for us im not happy to say. stay safe up there. ill be on here giving updates from my location
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Quoting Grothar:


Is The All American Hamburger place still there on Merrick?
Quoting longislander102:


I am in Massapequa in eastern Nassau County.


In case anybody wants to know, the Massapequa diner has the best rice pudding you ever tasted.
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well thats it for me..good night everyone,stay safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Quoting Doppler22:

When Sandy pays me a visit... it culd go into the 30's at night... and without power i dont like that
So I guess u use electric heat... no oil/coal/wood-burning furnace or fire?

One of the winters I spent in NC we had an unexpected cold snap. It was early enough that we hadn't done anything to get the furnace going, and it was a holiday weekend - everything was closed. I ended up camped out in front of the oven in the kitchen, with multiple socks and blankets.... it only dipped to the 40s, but for an inexperienced Bahamian, it was remarkably cold... I think I was prolly the happiest customer the oil delivery guy met in a Looooog while... lol
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Quoting BostonWench:
Well, I definitely got approximately nothing done at work today, besides watching all of this!

Sandy's definitely been on the news today and yesterday here in Boston, so the word is getting out. Most people I've talked to are actually preparing, too, which is even better.
thats some good news ty..and good luck up there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Quoting longislander102:


I am in Massapequa in eastern Nassau County.


Is The All American Hamburger place still there on Merrick?
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GEFS MODEL SPREAD AT 126 hours............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Quoting Bielle:


That mauve band goes right over my next-door neighbour's house.


LOL.
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Well, I definitely got approximately nothing done at work today, besides watching all of this!

Sandy's definitely been on the news today and yesterday here in Boston, so the word is getting out. Most people I've talked to are actually preparing, too, which is even better.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.