Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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642. BDAwx
I wouldn't expect doomsday with Sandy; just a particularly severe winter storm with a meteorological background that has little in the form of historical comparison.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I hate to say that the cmc called this out first...ew..I don't want my plans ruined.Worst case scenario is we here in D.C get sustained winds of 60mph gusting to hurricane force.No power and not trick or treating for the kids.Ruined!


LOL..I was waiting on someone to say it..yes the CMC did called it first..and the "reliable" models struggled with this scenario..now we wait to see which model has the final say in where Sandy will go..
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Quoting Grothar:


It won't make a difference. It is supposed to almost get wrapped around by another low and the pressure drop would be enormous. I don't even know if they have a name for that. It isn't just Sandy that will cause the event. There are another couple of factors.


Well, the classic name is ET - Extratropical Conversion - but in this case its an ET plus Rossby wave hemispheric phasing of an h500 trof with an ET, so, yah, we don't have a name for that.
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Cape May, nearly 3 feet of surge predicted and this is before peak

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Everything turns political one way or another.
Tony didn't turn political! LOL Thanks!
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I don't think so.
Nobody, not even the Mayans, could have predicted Jersey.
thats why its just the start not many care about us in jersey so were going first ha
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 063 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
South Miami checking in--- been relativly free of drama so far today but winds picking up now. Flickering power then a short outage. Going to back-up generator might as well use up the fuel before the seasons over. BTW Sandy has solved the issue of my late season avacado bumper crop. Guac & chips for NE landfall.
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Gro, I see a possible center off the NW tip of Cat Island with the MLC in tow off to the ENE where the white dot is.
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HPC precip map


GFS precip map-through 120 hours


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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL UPDATE
___________________________

HURRICANE SANDY



click on the image for a 4x bigger resolution...risk free


and here is this morning's NHC worst typo...
accidentally a major cane 115 mph



##614
Im quoting myself...Bermuda its not that far up and the date is October 25...
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TS force winds all the way to West end. That's a pretty big wind field...

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12z NCEP Ensembles

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Quoting NJcat3cane:
im pretty sure this is the start of the mayan end of the world prediction coming true..
I don't think so.
Nobody, not even the Mayans, could have predicted Jersey.
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Missed...
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Just a quick question.....seems Sandy may be just off shore of Palm Beach County. How much worse is this going to get?
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Anyone heard from Baha recently ? Was wondering how conditions are there now....
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Quoting ncstorm:


Hey Wash!! It looks like the models are trending farther south for landfall..it was new england mostly and now it looks like that might not be the case
I hate to say that the cmc called this out first...ew..I don't want my plans ruined.Worst case scenario is we here in D.C get sustained winds of 60mph gusting to hurricane force.No power and not trick or treating for the kids.Ruined!
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#Haiti Office of Disaster says #sandy has left 9 people dead; five in the south; 3 in west and 1 in Grand Anse. @cmorgan @miamiherald

Also reports as noted before of 11 in Cuba.

Unfortunately a Good/bad start to retirement
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Good lord, the GFS model in action on the forum just below is just frightening. Connecticut will be a disaster if the GFS model occurs. Too much water, too much wind. Ugh. The Jersey idea gets my vote !!
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Nor'Easters have a wide variety of common paths. Nor'Easters come through anywhere between New Jersey to off the New England coast completely. They certainly don't "all" or even "mostly" hit southeast Mass
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Some of you were wondering what the GFS showed in terms of snowfall after landfall. Here it is:



ah shoot..sure wish is was farther south..would love to see some snow..
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, PP. Look at this link.

Link


You think that's the center or the MLC booking off to the N?
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NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF SANDY.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Good evening ncstorm.The models have it out for my area in Particular.First is the Delmarva next the D.C metro and surrounding areas.


Hey Wash!! It looks like the models are trending farther south for landfall..it was new england mostly and now it looks like that might not be the case
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Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Sandy is going to hit SE mass! Noreasters always do! There will be a shift east to pull it on top of me. It will bottom out and stall and it will make for a crazy situation. That is my take.

hello where are you im in attleboro
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From what I am reading and seeing Sandy will be the 2 out of the list along with Isaac.after all the damage she make in Cuba so even though it don`t affect the USA Cuba will probably ask for retirement.If Sandy cause a lot of damage in the northeast which I am hoping she doesn`t could that make people to forget Isaac and only ask for Sandy?
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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 057 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
TROPICAL UPDATE
___________________________

HURRICANE SANDY



click on the image for a 4x bigger resolution...risk free


and here is this morning's NHC worst typo...
accidentally a major cane 115 mph

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Bahamas seem to be getting pounded!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
.


Hey, PP. Look at this link.

Link
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Sandy is going to hit SE mass! Noreasters always do! There will be a shift east to pull it on top of me. It will bottom out and stall and it will make for a crazy situation. That is my take.
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Quoting popartpete:
I've already heard talk of Sandy somehow effecting the election. Who else thinks that in addition to the weather aspect that this event becomes somehow a POLITICAL factor?? I don't know how or what, but it happened with Issac!


Surely, we can blame it on one of the politicians at least. No votes for who though; we don't need to trash this blog with that; nuff of it everywhere else!
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Latest Haiti Report I can find - sadly would appear 8 dead there - so the toll of Sandy rises


Link
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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 048 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
also if this was an all snow blizzard Noreaster for the jersey coast we would be talking 5+ feet of snow haha
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Oh thank ya, Gro...and I still drop by and check on ya'll....make sure you are still kickin....the eyes are watching ya..so behave :)


OK, Lady. Will do.
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Lower Chesapeake Bay surge model. I ran generator a while today and am in prep mode. 75 feet from the water, we are most vulnerable to storm surge. This is enough to over-wash our only road off the peninsula, but not yet enough to make it in the garage or house.

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im pretty sure this is the start of the mayan end of the world prediction coming true..
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


See post 545
OK, hard to argue with that. So more westerly it is then, if it is only that far north.
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Quoting Grothar:


There is a stranger among us. How you doing? It would be nice if you would drop a line sometime. We miss all miss you.


Oh thank ya, Gro...and I still drop by and check on ya'll....make sure you are still kickin....the eyes are watching ya..so behave :)
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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 036 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting luvthetropics:
Just wondering about the election and how it would be handled if so many are still without power a week later.


I'm hoping it wipes out both candidates since that's what we all REALLY want to happen anyway. This is such a throw-away election
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Some of you were wondering what the GFS showed in terms of snowfall after landfall. Here it is:

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Quoting LostTomorrows:


Oh, Cyclops Sandy has returned! After eating everything in sight and becoming extraordinarily large. Her circulation and outflow has grown to such an extent that she's shearing systems all over the basin haha.

Gah, this is going to be an interesting next few days in terms of developments, especially considering that she looks to be restrengthening. I should stock up on booze in preparation for her arrival in Ontario; there are a few model runs that take the centre of her over me after she digs inland a bit.


I'll be stocking up here in NW VT too. ;-)
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Just wondering about the election and how it would be handled if so many are still without power a week later.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

What is this flickering you speak of.... I'm in w oakland pk and we haven't had one flicker. Luckily I have the clapper in one of my rooms and I walked in there decided to test it so I could feel like you rich'uns close to the ocean...... ;-)


We have a standby generator, so I wouldn't even notice. :) but yes, the lights have been flickering and my battery backup keeps clicking on and off.
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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 024 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting SecretStormNerd:
Is anyone else in south fl tired if the local stations and their 24/7 coverage of almost tropical storm conditions. Every year it's worse than the previous.

As long as I don't have to see Belky Nerays stupid dead-pan face I can deal with it.
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Quoting Grothar:


I'm right across from there. Our lights have been flickering for about two hours.

What is this flickering you speak of.... I'm in w oakland pk and we haven't had one flicker. Luckily I have the clapper in one of my rooms and I walked in there decided to test it so I could feel like you rich'uns close to the ocean...... ;-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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