Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

Since Sandy is weakening who thinks Hurricane advisories would be issued or TS advisories for the NYC area??...
I think just TS warnings


They forecast it to restrengthen north of Hatteras due to baroclinic forces, but it probably won't be entirely tropical in nature. I think they will either post hurricane watches or local offices will post storm watches, IMO.
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


Or Hurricane Force Wind Watch/Warning... which is something you typically see in Alaska.


right.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

Since Sandy is weakening who thinks Hurricane advisories would be issued or TS advisories for the NYC area??...
I think just TS warnings


Or Hurricane Force Wind Watch/Warning... which is something you typically see in Alaska.
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Expect model guidance to shift back up towards New England if they abandon the sub 950MB idea.
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INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

Since Sandy is weakening who thinks Hurricane advisories would be issued or TS advisories for the NYC area??...
I think just TS warnings
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 02:52Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 28
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 2:36:34Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°18'N 76°00'W (25.3N 76.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 85 miles (137 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 139° at 88kts (From the SE at ~ 101.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: Not Available
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,443m (8,015ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Fix Determined By / Fix Level (Undecoded): 1 / 1 nm
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the east quadrant at 22:21:51Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 2:42:38Z
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
.AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
230 MILES...370 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF
41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H.

Wind field expanded again, quite a bit actually...
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
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This is still the 12Z. I wonder what the 18Z will be

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


welcome to the blog... by the way


Thanks, I've been following the storms a lot on here lately and thought now would be a good time to join up considering the present circumstances.

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Fowey Rocks
observations @ 10:00pm
Wind: N 42kts (g50)
Air: 76F / H20: 80F
Baro: 1003.7mb

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HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 76.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449

11:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 25
Location: 25.3°N 76.1°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
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Quoting weathercrazy40:

hello where are you im in attleboro


Rockland. On the south shore!
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Down to 90 mph.
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Quoting NewYork4Life:
Picked up chips and beer here 50 mi. north of Manhattan just in case. Hope it bangs a left and takes out Snooki on the Jersey Shore!


lol, I worked hurricane Irene damages from the Catskills to Staten Island. Stayed in Armonk for a short spell and worked the Bronx for a month and a half. Living here in WA state I had to learn to wave with all 5 fingers and to drive less offensive when I got home.
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000
WTNT23 KNHC 260255
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0300 UTC FRI OCT 26 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 76.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 70SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 76.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 75.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 180SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 230SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 34.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...360NE 330SE 280SW 330NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 40.5N 76.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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down to 90 MPH

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 76.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting ncstorm:


lets hope not..I just hope people know that it will be really cold after Sandy leaves and if you have no power, invest in a kerosene heater if you dont have a fireplace..I personally discovered kerosene heaters during the 1993 Superstorm..


Mr. Heater puts out pretty good heat and I think they are indoor safe. We on the other hand have our wood burning stove and a generator to run the fan that pushes heat all over the house... we do have a Mr. Heater though, but usually for the boat...
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
Anyone think the track will change at 11? and if so in which way?


Probably towards the south.
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Quoting Grothar:


It is probably the center. Really hard to tell. I know it is really kicking up good here right now.


Recon is revealing a sloppy Sandy at the surface.
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12z JMA







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Here are a few of the pictures I took today. A more complete set is available here.









I like the one with the pigeons best... lol

EDIT: I MEANT the gulls..... lol

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Winds already seem a lot stronger this time than they were the previous mission. Interesting.
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Quoting RascalNag:
Alright, the latest tracks make me want to shift my personal prediction down to South Jersey... not good for me. At least in this scenario though I'd have a story to tell far in the future.


welcome to the blog... by the way
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


You think that's the center or the MLC booking off to the N?


It is probably the center. Really hard to tell. I know it is really kicking up good here right now.
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Nearly 10" by O.B. NC
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Alright, the latest tracks make me want to shift my personal prediction down to South Jersey... not good for me. At least in this scenario though I'd have a story to tell far in the future.
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NHC advisory running late
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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 084 TILL 84


next up 00z gfs in about 40 minutes
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Hurricane SANDY
...CENTER OF SANDY PASSING NEAR ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
11:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 25
Location: 25.3 N 76.1 W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
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NAM the weakest of the models and on the eastern side of model consensus.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I don't think so.
Nobody, not even the Mayans, could have predicted Jersey.


That was cruel. LOL
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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 081 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Anyone think the track will change at 11? and if so in which way?
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NHC likely to wait for the next center pass.
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earlier run...right over NYC...wow!!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh quite..lol.I still don't beleive no pressure though that will be sub 950's.


lets hope not..I just hope people know that it will be really cold after Sandy leaves and if you have no power, invest in a kerosene heater if you dont have a fireplace..I personally discovered kerosene heaters during the 1993 Superstorm..
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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 078 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Picked up chips and beer here 50 mi. north of Manhattan just in case. Hope it bangs a left and takes out Snooki on the Jersey Shore!

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BOOOOOM!
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12z Euro 10m Wind map- I understand that the winds wont die down here in Eastern NC until TUESDAY..this storm will be around from Sat till Tuesday for my area





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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 075 TILL 84


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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 072 TILL 84


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I want to approach this storm like Scarlet O'Hara after she loses Rhett. "Tomorrow I'll think of some way . . . after all, tomorrow is another day" LOL
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Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..I was waiting on someone to say it..yes the CMC did called it first..and the "reliable" models struggled with this scenario..now we wait to see which model has the final say in where Sandy will go..
Oh quite..lol.I still don't beleive no pressure though that will be sub 950's.
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the midatlantic states have had a hard time this year with extreme weather and now it looks like they are up for something that might be talked about with future generations..
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non tropical model reference only
00Z nam FINAL 26 OCT hr 069 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL UPDATE
___________________________

HURRICANE SANDY



click on the image for a 4x bigger resolution...risk free


and here is this morning's NHC worst typo...
accidentally a major cane 115 mph



LOL, "Flagger" beach :)

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642. BDAwx
I wouldn't expect doomsday with Sandy; just a particularly severe winter storm with a meteorological background that has little in the form of historical comparison.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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