Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

Share this Blog
50
+

Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 742 - 692

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Quoting 7544:
hmmmmm se fla calling for winds gust up up to 70mph thu the day could that be right


more like gusts to 50...areas in the bahamas near the center arent even reporting many gusts over 70
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 570
Quoting floridaT:
very good point as the deep troughs are non existent in the heat of summer. didnt think of that


Other than the last few years you mean... ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have ? for those of you in N.E. has there been any discusion up your way in the event that afterwards with the very real possibility of 100,000s or millions without power for an extended period and the perfect storm scenerio of snow and freezing temp. on the backside sliding down from the GLs. Looking at exposure issues ,hypotherma, not speak of broken pipes etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting goosegirl1:



Now wait- I may be a loopy mountain zombie, but aren't those gulls??


Careful now, on some islands they may be chickens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't know computer model specifications as well as I do the weather, but I know the GFS previously had issues with convective feedback with troughs and tropical entities. Said feedback can result in some rather large errors, particularly when large-scale troughing becomes more frequent later in the year.
very good point as the deep troughs are non existent in the heat of summer. didnt think of that
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1043
737. 7544
hmmmmm se fla calling for winds gust up up to 70mph thu the day could that be right
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
Quoting Mamasteph:
..very good question..I'd like to know the answer to that too..anyone?
I am still holding my breath for my flight to Myrtle Beach @ 11 AM Tomorrow and the cruise out of Charleston on Sat afternoon for the Bahamas..lol
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
nearly 8 or 9in. of rain for my area (next to outerbanks) :s my street floods VERY easily
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
734. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
733. dader
Quoting IFuSAYso:


Everything is racist now, redneck is used in a racist manor as well. And the 49% you speak of like to use redneck to degrade others if they don't think liberal.


ok... if you say so
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Here are a few of the pictures I took today. A more complete set is available here.









I like the one with the pigeons best... lol




Now wait- I may be a loopy mountain zombie, but aren't those gulls??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaT:
now that we are fairly sure sandy is not going out to sea as the gfs had it a couple days ago, has anyone else noticed the gfs doesnt do as well with spring and late fall storm tracts?


I don't know computer model specifications as well as I do the weather, but I know the GFS previously had issues with convective feedback with troughs and tropical entities. Said feedback can result in some rather large errors, particularly when large-scale troughing becomes more frequent later in the year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaT:
all the cars are driving on the wrong side
Nah, that's the LEFT side, not the wrong side... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
There goes the power again, and that time there was a goodly gust at the same time... sure hope that wasn't the beginning of the end...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
727. Skyepony (Mod)
Brevard County schools are closed tomorrow. Tropical Storm force winds are expected in the afternoon with 20ft waves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Flyairbird:
At what time point do we believe that the actual NE turn will occur? If it misses that time point for some reason, then what?
..very good question..I'd like to know the answer to that too..anyone?
Member Since: May 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
now that we are fairly sure sandy is not going out to sea as the gfs had it a couple days ago, has anyone else noticed the gfs doesnt do as well with spring and late fall storm tracts?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1043
Quoting 7544:


hello what does that mean thanks


Rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now do you see why hurricane season runs through November 30? Disaster can happen anytime, anywhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


It certainly could if there were a substantial disaster and a poor response, as in Katrina.

If it is bad enough, some people might not get to the polls a week later because they have more pressing issues to deal with: If a tree has crashed through your roof and you are living in temp headquarters, it might seem like just too much bother to try and find where the polling place is if it has been moved, get there, etc.

Too, it's a subtle point, but a lot of bible-belters easily slip off into a 'millenial thinking' psychological state, and could easily transfer the perceived emotional intensity of the storm into a warning from god, or somesuch like that. There are people like that on both sides of the ailse though, so the effect would be hard to measure directly what with all the others ... people in Appalacia would possibly act loopier than usual but how would you ever measure that? I mean ... how do you tell even anecdotal the difference in behavior at 6 standard deviations out from the mean, and seven?



Well, we aren't all loopy... but I have already heard about the second coming this weekend:) I think it is a fear response and a way to seek God's protection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Nasty Day in Northeast Palm Beach County tomorrow.

Friday-Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 82 by 9am, then falling to around 76 during the remainder of the day. North wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night-Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Northwest wind 32 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
yeah i think fishing tomorrow is a bad idea
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1043
Quoting charlottefl:
Anyone heard from Baha recently ? Was wondering how conditions are there now....
Been trying to upload photos, so I haven't been monitoring...

So the winds outside are still fairly strong, but not as bad as 2-3 hours ago. It hasn't rained for a while, though.

Power is out in Abaco, Eleuthera and parts or all of the islands I already mentioned earlier today. Some of the islands are without communications, but most do have at least some connectivity even if only by text.

Eleuthera seems to have been riding out the storm without any major problems so far. Though what people are doing outside during all this I don't know...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
717. 7544
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
NWS expects activity to pick up around midnight.

THE RAPID
REFRESH DOES INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THIS
TREND WILL NEED TO BARE WATCHING.


hello what does that mean thanks
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY
HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AT 8000 FT WERE 90 KT...AND DROPSONDES IN WHAT REMAINED OF THE
EYEWALL SUGGESTED 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
RISEN TO 968 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At what time point do we believe that the actual NE turn will occur? If it misses that time point for some reason, then what?
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
714. NJ2S
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
bad weather in the northeast is a good thing for romney...not that it matters there since obama support is so strong, but it could alter it a little bit...polls show romney supporters are more apt to vote in bad weather than obama, simply bc obama supports dont like to take the 22 inch rims out unless going to the club or liquor store


UNNECESSARY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nasty Day in Northeast Palm Beach County tomorrow.

Friday-Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 82 by 9am, then falling to around 76 during the remainder of the day. North wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night-Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Northwest wind 32 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




I questioned the coc fix, but have since seen that it was made by recon aircraft.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:
I used to work in DC and every other weekend or so drive up into NE Ohio. Just to break up the boredom I took I-68 all the way to Morgantown a couple of times. It sure is a beautiful area...lucky you!

"Inbred cannibal zombies", lol. Further back I lived in NH for several years and we had a joke about one of those nearby little mountain towns having a "six finger outbreak"




I like the six finger thing =) I know the road to Morgantown very well. The stretch of
I68 between Frostburg MD and Morgantown is one of most notorious roads on the east coast for winter weather. If this storm verifies, I imagine there will be people socked in for weeks. I live on the eastern side of the divide, and I keep thinking about a storm to the east and up-slope rain/snow... it may be epic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS expects activity to pick up around midnight.

THE RAPID
REFRESH DOES INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THIS
TREND WILL NEED TO BARE WATCHING.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I want to know what effect if any the big nationwide balloon carpet bombing results had on the NHC reasoning in the 11PM discussion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't think Sandy is weakening, she's looking better then she has been for the better part of today, but is also expanding exponentially, which could be why her winds are seen to weaker.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Quoting uncwhurricane85:
i mean they only had Sandy makeing it to 70 mph where it is right now yesterday so id say she has already exceeded expectations....20mph stronger than forecasted is pretty significant



I personally think that post season Sandy will be upgraded to CAT3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Here are a few of the pictures I took today. A more complete set is available here.









I like the one with the pigeons best... lol

all the cars are driving on the wrong side
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1043
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
Im still waiting for the discussion...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ohh ok..so since it wont be tropical they might issue high wind warnings or hurricane-force wind warnings or something like that but no hurricane or TS advisories


Possibly, but I imagine they won't want to confuse people so they may stick will hurricane watches/warnings for Sandy. Who knows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i mean they only had Sandy makeing it to 70 mph where it is right now yesterday so id say she has already exceeded expectations....20mph stronger than forecasted is pretty significant
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 570
Quoting washingtonian115:
I teased the cmc so this is what I get in return?.


BONSAI!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
697. dader
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
NAM the weakest of the models and on the eastern side of model consensus.


The Nam is basically irrelevent
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NorthernVADoS:


They forecast it to restrengthen north of Hatteras due to baroclinic forces, but it probably won't be entirely tropical in nature. I think they will either post hurricane watches or local offices will post storm watches, IMO.


Ohh ok..so since it wont be tropical they might issue high wind warnings or hurricane-force wind warnings or something like that but no hurricane or TS advisories

yep...I see what you mean...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the 11pm track is absolutly the worst track possible for flooding and destruction here in Atlantic City New Jersey! Not Good at all!!
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
Quoting ncstorm:
12z JMA







I teased the cmc so this is what I get in return?.

693 ohh the ironey..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I had to joke with my mother in law today, she went up to Allentown, PA to see family for a couple weeks and get away from the potential storm. Latest NHC track sends it right over top of her.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

Since Sandy is weakening who thinks Hurricane advisories would be issued or TS advisories for the NYC area??...
I think just TS warnings


They forecast it to restrengthen north of Hatteras due to baroclinic forces, but it probably won't be entirely tropical in nature. I think they will either post hurricane watches or local offices will post storm watches, IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 742 - 692

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.