Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

Share this Blog
50
+

Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 792 - 742

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

792. uncwhurricane85
3:54 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
The comment about 22 inch rims and those about rednecks are the same comments directed at different groups. The point is to label the "outsiders" so you don't have to consider differences. Life is so much easier that way. It's that attitude that tees me off when some brash American runs up in the blog and insults the entire island blogging community [really the rest of the whole tropical world] by acting as if storms only matter if they are going to impact the US. "I don't have to care about you; you're not one of us, so disrespect is not only appropriate but de rigeur...

Nobody needs to live this way, and everybody loses with this kind of attitude.

Thank you x1000... I'm the loopy zombie, it seems... lol

U'd be OK in Nassau on Sunday, but getting here from there might present a wee challenge... lol



im sorry! didnt think it was that serious...maybe you should watch eddie murphy raw one time...no one set of people were being subjected...it was just a silly comment because in general a 22 inch rim driver would typically be an obama supporter whether they are in the bahamas or montana
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
791. Flyairbird
3:54 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
The comment about 22 inch rims and those about rednecks are the same comments directed at different groups. The point is to label the "outsiders" so you don't have to consider differences. Life is so much easier that way. It's that attitude that tees me off when some brash American runs up in the blog and insults the entire island blogging community [really the rest of the whole tropical world] by acting as if storms only matter if they are going to impact the US. "I don't have to care about you; you're not one of us, so disrespect is not only appropriate but de rigeur...

Nobody needs to live this way, and everybody loses with this kind of attitude.

Thank you x1000... I'm the loopy zombie, it seems... lol

U'd be OK in Nassau on Sunday, but getting here from there might present a wee challenge... lol

Wee?..lol Now when is this sucker gonna steer right for a little bit?
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
790. popartpete
3:53 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting NJcat3cane:
i agree! im in AC where you at?
Seaside Heights. I was at the Showboat and The Revel for the last two nights.
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
789. ProgressivePulse
3:53 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
27.617N 79.883W
SFMR 52 knots
(~ 59.8 mph)

Maybe I should rethink my Pizza thing, lol. That is really far from the center to the NW.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
788. Clearwater1
3:53 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting Flyairbird:
I am still holding my breath for my flight to Myrtle Beach @ 11 AM Tomorrow and the cruise out of Charleston on Sat afternoon for the Bahamas..lol

I'm sure your flight in to Charleston will be fine. Just don't see you taking a cruise south. Hope you bought the travel in insurance. Sorry for the bad luck and your vacation plans.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
787. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:53 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 072 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
786. popartpete
3:53 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting LostTomorrows:


So we may have two hurricanes upgraded to major status in the post-season. I actually think an insane amount of storms will be upgraded upon re-analysis.
From what I heard, the damage in Cuba might be that of a major hurricane!
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
785. Slamguitar
3:52 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I like sausage, peppers, and onions. Deep dish of course. chicago-style. LOL


Stop it!! You're making me hungry!!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
784. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:52 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 066 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
783. Clearwater1
3:50 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
I was in Ft. Lauderdale last weekend. They were moving a lot of those huge, 10 million plus dollar yachts into the marina for the big boat show starting Friday. May be a bit choppy, albeit only ts winds, but still. I bet the boat show people are not happy.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
782. NJcat3cane
3:50 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting popartpete:
There's a very eerie and quiet calm before the storm on the Jersey Shore tonight.
i agree! im in AC where you at?
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
781. BahaHurican
3:50 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting IFuSAYso:


Everything is racist now, redneck is used in a racist manor as well. And the 49% you speak of like to use redneck to degrade others if they don't think liberal.
The comment about 22 inch rims and those about rednecks are the same comments directed at different groups. The point is to label the "outsiders" so you don't have to consider differences. Life is so much easier that way. It's that attitude that tees me off when some brash American runs up in the blog and insults the entire island blogging community [really the rest of the whole tropical world] by acting as if storms only matter if they are going to impact the US. "I don't have to care about you; you're not one of us, so disrespect is not only appropriate but de rigeur...

Nobody needs to live this way, and everybody loses with this kind of attitude.

Quoting goosegirl1:



Now wait- I may be a loopy mountain zombie, but aren't those gulls??
Thank you x1000... I'm the loopy zombie, it seems... lol

Quoting Flyairbird:
I am still holding my breath for my flight to Myrtle Beach @ 11 AM Tomorrow and the cruise out of Charleston on Sat afternoon for the Bahamas..lol
U'd be OK in Nassau on Sunday, but getting here from there might present a wee challenge... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
780. popartpete
3:50 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
There's a very eerie and quiet calm before the storm on the Jersey Shore tonight.
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
779. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:48 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 060 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
778. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:47 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 054 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
777. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:46 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 048 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
776. ProgressivePulse
3:46 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Prepare for some hefty shipping costs!


I will, lol. I think I am pretty safe though. If the TS wind field was further in maybe.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
775. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:44 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 042 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
774. goosegirl1
3:44 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting Dsntslp:
Baby boom 9 mos later. lol Gonna' be a run on girls named Sandy and nicknamed Stormy.


I like your idea better than mine:)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1261
773. uncwhurricane85
3:43 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
is sandy still on 345 NNW heading? and when/where do you all think the north then NNE turn will occur? should be soon right?
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
771. goosegirl1
3:41 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting lat25five:
Have ? for those of you in N.E. has there been any discusion up your way in the event that afterwards with the very real possibility of 100,000s or millions without power for an extended period and the perfect storm scenerio of snow and freezing temp. on the backside sliding down from the GLs. Looking at exposure issues ,hypotherma, not speak of broken pipes etc.
3

In the Apps, most of us are used to going off the grid during winter storms. We have a gas fireplace and a gas stove, so we cook and heat with no problem. A lot of people have gennies as well. If you are prepared for loss of power in a winter storm, you are fine. Those kerosene heaters that were mentioned come in handy too. Not to mention, pellet stoves and wood stoves are very common. At least we won't have to worry about our freezers- just put everything in it outside.

So make a run to Home Depot and the gas station tomorrow for a kerosene heater and some fuel, would be my best advice.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1261
770. LostTomorrows
3:41 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
However, if we get a gust here tomorrow of 70mph I will buy the whole blog pizza, lol. I think they have to say that due to the TS Warning.


Prepare for some hefty shipping costs!
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
769. LostTomorrows
3:40 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


It was heavily implied in the wording:

THE MAIN REASON WHY SANDY WAS HELD
JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WAS DUE TO THE SUSTAINED 68-KT
WIND AND GUST TO 99 KT THAT OCCURRED AROUND 0517Z. HOWEVER...
STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE OCCURRED LATER WHEN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL MOVED ONSHORE...WHICH IS THE QUADRANT WHERE
THE 117-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS OBSERVED.


So we may have two hurricanes upgraded to major status in the post-season. I actually think an insane amount of storms will be upgraded upon re-analysis.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
768. lat25five
3:39 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting Dsntslp:
Baby boom 9 mos later. lol Gonna' be a run on girls named Sandy and nicknamed Stormy.



I hear ya, my sister's name is Betsy.
Member Since: February 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 85
766. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:39 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 036 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
765. floridaT
3:39 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
However, if we get a gust here tomorrow of 70mph I will buy the whole blog pizza, lol. I think they have to say that due to the TS Warning.
bold
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1093
764. superpete
3:38 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
S.Side Brac
How have conditions been thru today for you there?
SP
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 715
763. iceagecoming
3:38 AM GMT on October 26, 2012


We will see, my generator is gassed and ready to go.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1096
762. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:38 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 024 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
761. ProgressivePulse
3:37 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
However, if we get a gust here tomorrow of 70mph I will buy the whole blog pizza, lol. I think they have to say that due to the TS Warning.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
760. KoritheMan
3:37 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



I personally think that post season Sandy will be upgraded to CAT3.


It was heavily implied in the wording:

THE MAIN REASON WHY SANDY WAS HELD
JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WAS DUE TO THE SUSTAINED 68-KT
WIND AND GUST TO 99 KT THAT OCCURRED AROUND 0517Z. HOWEVER...
STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE OCCURRED LATER WHEN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL MOVED ONSHORE...WHICH IS THE QUADRANT WHERE
THE 117-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS OBSERVED.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21310
759. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:37 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 018 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
758. Dsntslp
3:36 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting lat25five:
Have ? for those of you in N.E. has there been any discusion up your way in the event that afterwards with the very real possibility of 100,000s or millions without power for an extended period and the perfect storm scenerio of snow and freezing temp. on the backside sliding down from the GLs. Looking at exposure issues ,hypotherma, not speak of broken pipes etc.
Baby boom 9 mos later. lol Gonna' be a run on girls named Sandy and nicknamed Stormy.
Member Since: August 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 70
757. floridaT
3:36 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting SSideBrac:


You must be on one of those Action Adventure Holidays, I guess???
good thing he waited till huricane season was over before booking. must have seen all the posts on here a couple weeks ago saying the season is over
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1093
756. BahaHurican
3:35 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



I personally think that post season Sandy will be upgraded to CAT3.
Wouldn't be surprising given the kind of damage seen at Santiago de Cuba....

Quoting uncwhurricane85:


no just the ones that arent going to vote bc of bad weather...your the one that said it was racist.....anyway it wont be around then.....also i dont see sandy being a hurricane any further than NC...let alone when it makes landfall...and the COC at landfall will basically be a 75 miles wide area of low pressure more so than an eye...so this whole landfall thing could be in NYC and coastal central new jersey at the same time
Maybe the pple who don't vote don't have vehicles at all. Maybe their polling places are harder to access. Maybe they work jobs that require them to be on call during wx emergencies.

I wonder if you understand why somebody else might think your original comment racist / prejudiced in tone...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
755. SSideBrac
3:34 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting Flyairbird:
I am still holding my breath for my flight to Myrtle Beach @ 11 AM Tomorrow and the cruise out of Charleston on Sat afternoon for the Bahamas..lol


You must be on one of those Action Adventure Holidays, I guess???
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
754. ProgressivePulse
3:33 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting 7544:
hmmmmm se fla calling for winds gust up up to 70mph thu the day could that be right


Coastal areas only. Forecast track brings Sandy 190 miles from my place in Jupiter, 2 miles inland.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 200NW.

Should brush the coast with the sustained TS winds
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
753. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:33 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 012 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
751. CaicosRetiredSailor
3:33 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Nah, that's the LEFT side, not the wrong side... lol



Here in the Islands

Left is Right

and

Right is Wrong

: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting SSideBrac:


Mmmm - I think you are correct - BUT they may be called "pigeons" in Bahamas :-)


If food ever got that short, pigeon pie sounds more appetising than sea gull pie IMHO - and in Cayman, we have our own "herds" of feral chickens :-)
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
Quoting TheThinker:
Wow, what is this going to do to the election voting?

Who will it favor...?
theres an election in the bahamas?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1093
Wow, what is this going to do to the election voting?

Who will it favor...?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Flyairbird:
I am still holding my breath for my flight to Myrtle Beach @ 11 AM Tomorrow and the cruise out of Charleston on Sat afternoon for the Bahamas..lol
good luck on that
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1093
reference only

00Z GFS INIT 26 OCT hr 000 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Quoting Flyairbird:
I am still holding my breath for my flight to Myrtle Beach @ 11 AM Tomorrow and the cruise out of Charleston on Sat afternoon for the Bahamas..lol


Welp... good luck with that! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting goosegirl1:



Now wait- I may be a loopy mountain zombie, but aren't those gulls??


Mmmm - I think you are correct - BUT they may be called "pigeons" in Bahamas :-)
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
Quoting 7544:
hmmmmm se fla calling for winds gust up up to 70mph thu the day could that be right


more like gusts to 50...areas in the bahamas near the center arent even reporting many gusts over 70
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 574

Viewing: 792 - 742

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
37 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron