Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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Recon-mission No 9 with Kermit has started from Tampa.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
I dont know how to post the water vapor but if some one would it shows Sandy exploding with moisture and its trying to cut off the dry air to south..looks like that could happen in few hours




Good morning from safe Europe, following your fate with Sandy closely. Very sad to hear about all those losses of life and hugh damage in Cuba and Haiti.
Here is the vapor loop (if you want to post those loops, choose the gif-animation, if available, copy the property-link into the place for images in the comment box).
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hi there hope you yanks be ready , your biggist threat from the north not the south , hope your all safe ,watchn for you
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 56964
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Quoting BahaHurican:
If the NW track materializes, it looks like Hope Town will get a pretty direct hit....


is it not moving nw now? or nnw?
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I dont know how to post the water vapor but if some one would it shows Sandy exploding with moisture and its trying to cut off the dry air to south..looks like that could happen in few hours
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934. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 26 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (980 hPa) located at 14.7N 114.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.6N 109.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 18.2N 105.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 19.6N 101.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos

Additional Information
=======================
Son-Tinh will move at west northwest for the next 72 hours

Son-Tinh will be upgraded to typhoon within 24 hours

Cyclone will develop because spiral cloud bands have become better organized and will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 4.5 after 24 hours
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If the NW track materializes, it looks like Hope Town will get a pretty direct hit....
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00z Models are in.

Format
Model...00z/12z (except for GFS, GFDL, and HWRF where the 18z is behind the slash)

Minimum Pressure Displayed

ECMWF...932/931
GFS...947/942...12z had 941
UKMET...952/945
CMC...945/938
NOGAPS...961/963
GFDL...927/929...12z had 925
HWRF...923/930...12z had 949


ECMWF and the hurricane models are the most aggressive, consistently showing a 920-935mb storm. CMC has been consistently showing a storm around 935-945mbs. GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS are the least aggressive, showing a storm 940-950mbs. And I realize the NOGAPS shows 960mbs, but considering its poor resolution, it is likely showing a sub-950mb storm.
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x
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I'm really impressed with how well Sandy is resisting significant weakening at this point. Its pressure bottomed out at 954 mb, at which point it had an amazing satellite appearance. All day today, it has looked absolutely terrible on satellite... the CDO has been pushed off to the north, the center is practically exposed, the eye is now not even showing up on reconnaissance reports, it's under an astounding 40 kts of wind shear, and yet the pressure of this storm is STILL 968 mb, only 14 mb higher than its absolute low. This is one resilient hurricane.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey all... Just woke up for a couple minutes... took a quick look outside, where it's still windy but dry as a bone, and now am ready to head back to bed.... lol


We just had a drive by BahaHuricaning. :)
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Hey all... Just woke up for a couple minutes... took a quick look outside, where it's still windy but dry as a bone, and now am ready to head back to bed.... lol
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I put back the other 2, both from TWC so they should be no problem.


Thanks. Yeah they're fine. :)
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Aww. I really did want to watch them. Links?

I put back the other 2, both from TWC so they should be no problem.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Removed all the video's. Sorry about that.


Aww. I really did want to watch them. Links?
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Also worth mentioning that the 00z ECMWF intialized the storm far better than the GFS. Here the 00z ECMWF intializes the storm at 968mbs. 00z GFS intialized the storm at 986mbs.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

Removed it. Better now?

Much!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Post 906.

Removed all the video's. Sorry about that.
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Good night folks, stay safe everyone.. Sandy is an interesting one to follow.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Aussie, I think your post messed up the blog.


haha
Yeah, if I click the tiny bit of the edges of the Hide buttons (which is all I can see of them) on Aussie's posts, the blog returns to normal. Must be some weird html in those vids. :)

By the way, the Wind Map is pretty awesome tonight.

Link

Can you tell where the front is? :D
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Removed it. Better now?


Post 906.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Aussie, I think your post messed up the blog.

Removed it. Better now?
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I am coming up short on the width???
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Why Sandy Could Be Wicked

The Weather Channel's Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said on Thursday evening that this storm "Will be like a nor'easter with a hurricane embedded in it."

WASHINGTON -- All the spare parts appear to be coming together to create what forecasters are calling a monster combination of high wind, heavy rain, extreme tides and maybe snow that could cause havoc along the East Coast just before Halloween next week.

Hurricane Sandy, having blown through Haiti and Cuba on Thursday, continues to barrel north. A wintry storm is chugging across from the West. And frigid air is streaming south from Canada.

And if they meet Tuesday morning around New York or New Jersey, as forecasters predict, they could create a big wet mess that settles over the nation's most heavily populated corridor and reaches as far inland as Ohio.

With experts expecting at least $1 billion in damage, the people who will have to clean it up aren't waiting. Utilities are lining up out-of-state work crews and canceling employees' days off to deal with the power outages. From county disaster chiefs to the federal government, emergency officials are warning the public to be prepared. And President Barack Obama was briefed aboard Air Force One.

"It's looking like a very serious storm that could be historic," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground. "Mother Nature is not saying `trick-or-treat.' It's just going to give tricks."

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco said: "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting."

Government forecasters said there is a 90 percent chance - up from 60 percent two days earlier - that the East will get pounded starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday. Things are expected to get messier once Sandy, a very late hurricane in what has been a remarkably quiet season, comes ashore, probably in New Jersey.

Coastal areas from Florida to Maine will feel some effects, but the storm is expected to vent the worst of its fury on New Jersey and the New York City area, which could see around 5 inches of rain and gale-force winds close to 40 mph. Eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania, western Virginia and the Shenandoah Mountains could get snow. And the storm will take its time leaving. The weather may not start clearing in the mid-Atlantic until the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the upper Northeast, Cisco said.

"It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," he said from a NOAA forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread, serious storm."

It is likely to hit during a full moon, when tides are near their highest, increasing the risk of coastal flooding. And because many trees still have their leaves, they are more likely to topple in the event of wind and snow, meaning there could be widespread power outages lasting to Election Day.

Eastern states that saw blackouts that lasted for days after last year's freak Halloween snowstorm and Hurricane Irene in late August 2011 are already pressuring power companies to be more ready this time.

Asked if he expected utilities to be more prepared, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick responded: "They'd better be."

Jersey Central Power & Light, which was criticized for its response to Irene, notified employees to be ready for extended shifts. In Pennsylvania, PPL Corp. spokesman Michael Wood said, "We're in a much better place this year."

Some have compared the tempest to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but that one didn't hit as populated an area. Nor is this one like last year's Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowfall.

"The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I'm thinking a billion," Masters said. "Yeah, it will be worse."

As it made its way across the Caribbean, Sandy was blamed for at least four deaths in Haiti and Jamaica. The 18th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season hit the Bahamas after cutting across Cuba, where it tore roofs off homes and damaged fragile coffee and tomato crops.

Norje Pupo, a 66-year-old retiree in Holguin, was helping his son clean up early Thursday after an enormous tree toppled in his garden.

"The hurricane really hit us hard," he said. "As you can see, we were very affected. The houses are not poorly made here, but some may have been damaged."

The Associated Press
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Hurricane Sandy Barrels into the Bahamas

NASSAU, Bahamas — Hurricane Sandy barreled into the Bahamas on Thursday after slashing across eastern Cuba, where it ripped off roofs and forced postponement of a hearing at the Guantanamo naval base but caused no reported deaths.

The Category 2 hurricane killed four people elsewhere in the Caribbean, and forecasters warned it will likely cause a super storm in the U.S. next week, mixing with a winter storm whose effects will be felt along the entire East Coast from Florida to Maine and inland to Ohio.

Power was already out on Acklins Island and most roads there were flooded, said government administrator Berkeley Williams. He said his biggest concern is that a boat filled with basic supplies for the island canceled its trip until next week. "Supplies were low before, so you can imagine what we are going through now," Williams said.

On Ragged Island in the southern Bahamas, the lone school was flooded, "we have holes in roofs, lost shingles and power lines are down," said Charlene Bain, local Red Cross president. "But nobody lost a life, that's the important thing."

People across the Bahamas formed long lines to stock up on water, canned goods, flashlights and other items, leaving grocery store shelves nearly empty.

Sooner Halvorson, a 36-year-old hotel owner from Colorado who recently moved to the Bahamas, said she and her husband, Matt, expect to ride out the storm with their two young children, three cats, two dogs and a goat at their Cat Island resort.

"We brought all of our animals inside," she said, though she added that a horse stayed outside. "She's a 40-year-old horse from the island. She's been through tons of hurricanes."

Hurricane Sandy was expected to churn through the central and northwest Bahamas late Thursday and early Friday. It also might bring tropical storm conditions along the southeastern Florida coast, the Upper Keys and Florida Bay by Friday morning.

In the Bahamas, the massive Atlantis resort went into lockdown mode after dozens of tourists left Paradise Island before the airport closed, said George Markantonis, president and managing director of Kerzner International, which manages the resort. He said the resort is now less than half full, but all its restaurants, casinos and other facilities are still operating.

But other businesses on Paradise Island, where the capital of Nassau is located, remained closed.

Sandy was blamed for the death of an elderly man in Jamaica who was killed when a boulder crashed into his clapboard house, police said. Another man and two women died while trying to cross storm-swollen rivers in southwestern Haiti.

Officials reported flooding across Haiti, where many of the 370,000 people still displaced by the devastating 2010 earthquake scrambled for shelter. More than 1,000 people were evacuated from 11 quake settlements, according to the International Organization for Migration.

In Cuba, authorities said they were worried about the damage Hurricane Sandy might have inflicted in small mountain villages still unheard from, but no deaths were reported.

"It crossed the entire eastern region practically without losing intensity or structure," said Jose Rubiera, the island's chief meteorologist.

The Associated Press
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Aussie, I think your post messed up the blog.
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My coordinates in Boynton Beach, Fl. are 26.50N/80.06W.
The 2am location of Sandy is 25.8N/76.5W. So Sandy is basically due East of my house right now by roughly 125-150 miles. We are experiencing quick and small squalls out of the North/North East. Nothing too serious, and an occasional gust or two around 30-40 mph. It seems like the rain itself is staying offshore at this time. Maybe we will see some bigger squalls later on out of the North as sandy moves upward, but at this time, it is relatively quiet. We escaped by 100 miles or so from all the difference in the world. Hopefully the North East does not feel the full wrath of this Storm that they are predicting down the line..
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00z ECMWF has Sandy hitting the East Coast with 954 mb by 96 hours.

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Video Removed
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00z ECMWF 72 hours:

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those 2am coordinates I meant. not pm, oops. But I still believe the storm is further north than the for cast points by a little bit at least. should be interesting if Sandy does slow down a bit as forecast for at least the next 12 hours, we shall see...
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00z ECMWF has it at 939mbs in only 48hrs. Might see a sub 930mb storm on this run.

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seeing those 2pm coordinates, I guess I am seeing the illusion of the center being farther north. It must be the SW shear pushing the convection ahead of the actual center. It just looks so much farther north than forecasted. My bad
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 260552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 76.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
275 MILES...445 KM. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A 2-MINUTE WIND OF 46
MPH...74 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
IS 968 MB...28.58 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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Sandy has sped up so much. She/he has past the 2am forecast points an hour ago. The Friday 8PM forecast point is just ahead. Unless the brakes are put on, this storm may have to totally revamped in the forcast direction as far as the NE is concerned, in regard to the incoming trough which is supposed to influence the turn back into the conus. Just my observation. I am just seeing a storm moving way faster than predicted right at this time.....
It is going to definitely change the way the forecast track is at this time by some degree. Correct me if I am wrong, but she/he is cooking along to the north way faster than projected..
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899. Gaara
Quoting lobdelse81:

Hey Kori, I see that the outflow with Sandy is very huge. If this is the case, why isn't she strengthening? I also noticed some very deep convection near the center. This reminds me of several storms we have seen in recent years that are large in size, have very deep associated convection, low pressures that are not reflective of the category they are stated to be (ex: Ike, Alex, Irene, Isaac, and several others)It just seems too coincidental that we are seeing more of these types of hurricanes.


Rotational inertia?
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IF this Euro has the same idea a sub 950mb low slamming into south NJ or DE all hell is gonna break lose tomorrow on the news and what not. Not saying its not warrented cause this is the holy grail of storms to ever hit the Mid Atlantic and possibly the strongest to ever hit for a very ver long time
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WOW!! That was on intense feeder band that just swept through broward county in FL. IT had to be very close to hurricane strength gusts... intense is not the word... I haven't seen anything like that since Wilma. Anyone else just feel that??
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Quoting lobdelse81:

Hey Kori, I see that the outflow with Sandy is very huge. If this is the case, why isn't she strengthening? I also noticed some very deep convection near the center. This reminds me of several storms we have seen in recent years that are large in size, have very deep associated convection, low pressures that are not reflective of the category they are stated to be (ex: Ike, Alex, Irene, Isaac, and several others)It just seems too coincidental that we are seeing more of these types of hurricanes.

Shear seems to be the word. From the 11 PM discussion.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER AND NEAR SANDY...WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP THE STORM GOING DESPITE 35 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE RESULT OF THIS INTERACTION IS THAT SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN SIZE...WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE CENTRAL WINDS.

Shear tends to get stronger as storms move north and enter the westerlies. The deep convection is not all that organized. The storm is not all that well organized.
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Nearly 6hours late but...
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneSandy @ 26Oct.12am
Since the previous mapping,
23.5n75.4w has been re-evaluated&altered (maybe my mistake*)
23.6n75.3w-24.8n75.8w are now the most recent positions

MHH-GreatAbaco :: GHB&RSD-Eleuthera :: CAT-CatIsland :: LGI-LongIsland

The bottom dot on the connected lines is where TropicalStormSandy became HurricaneSandy
The southernmost dot on the longes line is H.Sandy's most recently reported ATCF position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within ~23miles or 37kilometres) to an inhabited coastline.
26Oct.12am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 10.9miles(17.5kilometres)ENEast of Eleuthera, then a 9:30am passage 23.6miles(37.9kilometres)ENEast of HopeTown,ElbowCay (east of MHH)

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info

* Might have plotted the previous map by 'copy&paste'ing the NHC.Advisory(preliminary)position, then later 'copy&paste'd the NHC(official)ATCF position onto my running list for Sandy's positions.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

Hey Kori, I see that the outflow with Sandy is very huge. If this is the case, why isn't she strengthening? I also noticed some very deep convection near the center. This reminds me of several storms we have seen in recent years that are large in size, have very deep associated convection, low pressures that are not reflective of the category they are stated to be (ex: Ike, Alex, Irene, Isaac, and several others)It just seems too coincidental that we are seeing more of these types of hurricanes.


Because there is shear and dry air over her. Structural changes are not uncommon in western Atlantic tropical cyclones. Also, please don't tell me you're into the hurricane modification conspiracy theory... are you? :/

But no, if you want recent examples of US hurricanes that weren't like that, try Earl from 2010.

Also, how's this for large storms with uncharacteristically low pressures: Rafael had a pressure of 969 mb at peak intensity, yet it never even reached Category 2 strength, and it remained well away from the US.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
80 knot intensity for Sandy is generous considering SFMR is only finding 65knot winds and the dropsonde only found 70 knot winds. Flight level winds are 90 knots which supports the 80 knot intensity, but it is clear that winds are not fully mixing down to the surface.

I'm guessing the NHC takes the safe, prudent route when winds are not mixing down. Convection could start at any time--though the storm is weakening overall at present. If convection were to develop then the winds could start mixing down and stronger winds could surprise people.

It puts the forecasters in an awkward position. That's why they have their job and I have mine.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No kidding.

btw Steve, I hope you haven't tried texting me lately. I lost my phone at work, and won't be able to buy another one until I get paid again.

Hey Kori, I see that the outflow with Sandy is very huge. If this is the case, why isn't she strengthening? I also noticed some very deep convection near the center. This reminds me of several storms we have seen in recent years that are large in size, have very deep associated convection, low pressures that are not reflective of the category they are stated to be (ex: Ike, Alex, Irene, Isaac, and several others)It just seems too coincidental that we are seeing more of these types of hurricanes.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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