Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast

By: Angela Fritz , 9:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.

Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.

There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.

Angela


Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!

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Quoting o22sail:


Yea, I'm just south of you, in Richmond, and feeling just as sarcastic.
This is about the last thing we need right now.
It's been really wet up here.So we don't need any more rain or else we will have very bad flooding.George town will be under water like it was during Isael.D.C mets getting nervous.Offff course the morning crew on fox 5 aren't taking any thing serious.I'm looking at you Tucker!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 19009
Quoting OminousCloud:
Seems like the closer Sandy gets to me, in se Florida, the better the weather is getting!!! It was worse Wed. night. Crazy!!!


All the weather associated with sandy remains on its eastern side so if your not in one of the squalls your ok. I suspect those TS warnings and wind watches will be removed later this morning if not sooner. Heavy rain threat is about over.

Now waiting on cool change coming. :0)
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1040. LargoFl
Quoting o22sail:


Yea, I'm just south of you, in Richmond, and feeling just as sarcastic.
This is about the last thing we need right now.
One thing I'd like you warn you folks about,since your not used to tropical systems actually coming onshore by you..land falling tropical systems often throw off numerous tornado's..dont let your guard down even if this weakens some..only takes one tornado to ruin your life and homes..new orleans can testify to that Im sure.
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1039. air360
Check out the link below. Notice how the southern part of the forecast track has continued to shift more west as Sandy continues NW..and then in the latest track the Northern part of the track was shifted W. I hope sandy doesnt do one of those things where she is expected to turn but gives everyone the finger and keeps on going in the direction she wants lol

Floater with track
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GFS has her a little closer to NYC
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
1036. o22sail
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh looky the NHC has a hurricane sitting just off the Delmarva with it tracking just a tad north of me perhaps bringing me hurricane force winds.Just lovely

SARCASTIC FLAG:ON.


Yea, I'm just south of you, in Richmond, and feeling just as sarcastic.
This is about the last thing we need right now.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


970 mb??? and not 965
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
1034. ncstorm
to have a storm make landfall in VA is very rare..I maybe wrong but I couldnt find anything where a hurricane made landfall on Virginia..passing through it yes but making landfall??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16425
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
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Oh looky the NHC has a hurricane sitting just off the Delmarva with it tracking just a tad north of me perhaps bringing me hurricane force winds.Just lovely

SARCASTIC FLAG:ON.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 19009
1031. Spazi
Does anybody know how to interpret the rainfall amount on the Wondermap? While looking at model data, there is a color gradient which which has numbers attached to it (0 -3). Is that the rainfall amount per hour or something else?

thxs
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Time: 11:37:00Z
Coordinates: 26.3167N 76.8667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 691.5 mb (~ 20.42 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,933 meters (~ 9,623 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 965.8 mb (~ 28.52 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 243° at 1 knots (From the WSW at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 15.4°C (~ 59.7°F)
Dew Pt: 10.6°C (~ 51.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
1029. LargoFl
NAEFS model at 96 hours-WIND..................
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1028. icmoore
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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1027. LargoFl
well by me not a drop of rain yet and a steady breeze....
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can the path for impact shift north again later?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Minimum pressure is 965 millibars.
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1024. LargoFl
Quoting Maryland1:
Morning all. Our generally sheltered coast and bay don't look to be saved by the Outer Banks this time. Figuring at least two tide cycles on a slow moving monster is going to do some terrible damage to our coastal communities. The water temps just aren't low enought to calm it much. Sad to say, this looks really bad for us.
good morning and yes they are really worried about all the bays and inlets all along the eastern seaboard..high tides and a full moon etc..gee
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Time: 11:26:00Z
Coordinates: 25.95N 77.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 691.9 mb (~ 20.43 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,996 meters (~ 9,829 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 974.1 mb (~ 28.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 298 at 47 knots (From the WNW at ~ 54.0 mph)
Air Temp: 14.8C (~ 58.6F)
Dew Pt: 7.5C (~ 45.5F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 76 knots (~ 87.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
1022. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:


One of my local stations is downplaying the event like tropical force winds are no big deal..I guess no one told him you can have power outages and this is supposed to last from Sat till tuesday..

to put so much faith in computer models that still are having issues can make for one big FAIL
I hope you folks come thru this ok, further north its going to be bad
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Morning all. Our generally sheltered coast and bay don't look to be saved by the Outer Banks this time. Figuring at least two tide cycles on a slow moving monster is going to do some terrible damage to our coastal communities. The water temps just aren't low enought to calm it much. Sad to say, this looks really bad for us.
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1020. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Recon says the pressure is beginning to fall with Sandy. Down to 966 millibars and not to the center yet.
ITS SUPPOSED TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE CAROLINA'S
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1019. ncstorm
if anyone is happy about Sandy, its the surfers..LOL

From the StarNews in Wilmington, NC

Miami, FL


Haiti




Cuba
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16425
Quoting AussieStorm:

snor'eastercane has also been used.


Wouldn't snow'hallocane be more fitting?
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 197
Recon says the pressure is beginning to fall with Sandy. Down to 966 millibars and not to the center yet.
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966.4 mb
(~ 28.54 inHg)

Pressure is lowering also.
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Quoting floridaT:
it wqould be futile after "frankenstorm" went viral

snor'eastercane has also been used.
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1014. ncstorm
Quoting air360:


We are just north of you in morehead city/Atlantic Beach area.

I've been wondering and worrying about that exact thing the whole time. Every mile more NW it goes before turning makes it that much closer to our coast. And every mile N it goes as it is making the turn makes it that much closer.

I realize its nearly impossible to predict the exact turn for storms as its hard enough to forecast it going straight..

I don't think people in ENC are paying enough attention as they see the forecast for it to be off shore so they dont care...not realizing that it could get bad here or that it could be closer that we think.


One of my local stations is downplaying the event like tropical force winds are no big deal..I guess no one told him you can have power outages and this is supposed to last from Sat till tuesday..

to put so much faith in computer models that still are having issues can make for one big FAIL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16425
74.4 knots (~ 85.6 mph)
Category One Hurricane

Hmmm... Sandy starting to strengthen? Or is it just an outlier.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I wouldn't put it past them to try if Sandy becomes a snow-maker.
it wqould be futile after "frankenstorm" went viral
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Quoting barbamz:


Ah, you found it. Good, Aussi. I don't think TWC will have a chance to successfully rename the storm into "Athena", lol.

Edit: And wikipedia got it also. So it's saved.

I wouldn't put it past them to try if Sandy becomes a snow-maker.
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Quoting barbamz:


Ah, you found it. Good, Aussi. I don't think TWC will have a chance to successfully rename the storm into "Athena", lol.

Edit: And wikipedia got it also. So it's saved.
i think he got the term from this blog. i remember names thrown around last week but i forget who came up with frankenstorm
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


I lived a couple of years in Michigan, southeast of Ann Arbor, but shopped in Ann Arbor. I was so surprised to see the parking lots there with sea gulls all over them.


So I suppose it's not just an eastern phenom, just what gulls do. When they show up on the parking lot at work we joke that we've moved work to the beach for the day.

I know a lot of you probably see them as pests, but I like gulls since we rarely see them. In the past, I have taken the Cedar Island ferry out to Ocracoke and I always point out what kind of gulls are hanging out and hitching a free ride- usually my favorite, laughing gulls. They are clever and take advantage of anything us handy humans will give away.

NWS is finally calling for a rain/snow mix in my area. I haven't seen any wind predictions yet, but I'm treating this storm like it will really happen and will get some preps done today.
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I see the track is shifted south...is NYC not for the worst of the storm now?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
1007. barbamz
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hurricane Sandy forces East Coast to brace for hit


Hurricane Sandy: Potential Serious U.S. Impacts



National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco, who coined the nickname Frankenstorm, said: 'We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.'""'It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event,' he said from a NOAA forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread, serious storm."

It is likely to hit during a full moon, when tides are near their highest, increasing the risk of coastal flooding. And because many trees still have their leaves, they are more likely to topple in the event of wind and snow, meaning there could be widespread power outages lasting to Election Day."


Ah, you found it. Good, Aussi. I don't think TWC will have a chance to successfully rename the storm into "Athena", lol.

Edit: And wikipedia got it also. So it's saved.
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Quoting intampa:
i have a cruise, a wedding, a business meeting and a secret rendevouz all for new jersey shore on monday tuesday wednesday and thursday my daughter or son has a cruise , honeymoon, vacation, cub scout meeting in norfolk on tuesday wednesday and next saturday , should i cancel and ask for my money back?
uhhhh..yes.
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1005. air360
Quoting ncstorm:
well my area is under a tropical storm watch..here's hoping that Sandy makes that right turn as predicted and not come inland to SE NC..fingers cross over here..


We are just north of you in morehead city/Atlantic Beach area.

I've been wondering and worrying about that exact thing the whole time. Every mile more NW it goes before turning makes it that much closer to our coast. And every mile N it goes as it is making the turn makes it that much closer.

I realize its nearly impossible to predict the exact turn for storms as its hard enough to forecast it going straight..

I don't think people in ENC are paying enough attention as they see the forecast for it to be off shore so they dont care...not realizing that it could get bad here or that it could be closer that we think.
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Well, classroom and kids are waiting for me. But it's Friday! And a jeans day. So everyone have a wonderful Friday!
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Quoting ncstorm:


who are the other two?


football and local news. *S*
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1001. ncstorm
well my area is under a tropical storm watch..here's hoping that Sandy makes that right turn as predicted and not come inland to SE NC..fingers cross over here..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16425
1000. ncstorm
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's funny you say that TWC "hypes everything", as a number of people were bashing them just yesterday for "not even talking about" Sandy.

Someone's incorrect. ;-)

The thing is, "hype" on Sandy--at this moment, at least--may be warranted. if the worst-case (or even middle-of-the-road case) scenarios pan out, Sandy and her eventual hybrid morph promise to cause inconvenience, damage, and destruction over a very wide area of the most densely-populated parts of the U.S. With that in mind, it's probably better to be overwarned than not warned at all...

(Of course, over the next three or four days, TWC will become one of the top three most-watched networks on TV, so they're obviously readying themselves for that.)


who are the other two?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16425
Quoting Doppler22:
OK so in case anyone didnt see... the Weather Channel has expanded its aware area out to Ohio and the alert area has been put in place in much of the mid-atlantic/northeast


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Quoting goosegirl1:



You might be right- people closer the coast than I call them "pigeons of the sea". Since we see them so rarely where I live, they are different and noted. BTW, I have no idea why, but every February several black-backed gulls invade all the way down the North Branch Potomac valley and hang out on parking lots. Always late Feb, always parking lots, and normally in foggy wet weather. We think of them as a sure sign of spring, because it warms up right after that. Maybe they normally frequent parking lots, I don't know :)


I lived a couple of years in Michigan, southeast of Ann Arbor, but shopped in Ann Arbor. I was so surprised to see the parking lots there with sea gulls all over them.
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Hurricane Sandy forces East Coast to brace for hit


Hurricane Sandy: Potential Serious U.S. Impacts

Quoting floridaT:
morning all I notice the media using the term frankenstorm. I do believe that phrase was coined here about a week ago from a wu member.


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco, who coined the nickname Frankenstorm, said: 'We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.'""'It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event,' he said from a NOAA forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread, serious storm."

It is likely to hit during a full moon, when tides are near their highest, increasing the risk of coastal flooding. And because many trees still have their leaves, they are more likely to topple in the event of wind and snow, meaning there could be widespread power outages lasting to Election Day."
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Quoting MahFL:


Sadly TWC hypes everything. It's always like the end of the world.
It's funny you say that TWC "hypes everything", as a number of people were bashing them just yesterday for "not even talking about" Sandy.

Someone's incorrect. ;-)

The thing is, "hype" on Sandy--at this moment, at least--may be warranted. if the worst-case (or even middle-of-the-road case) scenarios pan out, Sandy and her eventual hybrid morph promise to cause inconvenience and/or damage over a very wide swath of the most densely-populated parts of the U.S. With that in mind, it's probably better to be overwarned than not warned at all...

(Of course, over the next three or four days, TWC will become one of the top three most-watched networks on TV, so they're obviously readying themselves for that.)
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Quoting SSideBrac:


Mmmm - I think you are correct - BUT they may be called "pigeons" in Bahamas :-)



You might be right- people closer the coast than I call them "pigeons of the sea". Since we see them so rarely where I live, they are different and noted. BTW, I have no idea why, but every February several black-backed gulls invade all the way down the North Branch Potomac valley and hang out on parking lots. Always late Feb, always parking lots, and normally in foggy wet weather. We think of them as a sure sign of spring, because it warms up right after that. Maybe they normally frequent parking lots, I don't know :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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