Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 2, continues on its track toward the East Coast
Hurricane Sandy is tracking north through the Bahamas this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum wind speeds in the hurricane are 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 963 mb. Sandy's center is moving through the eastern Bahamas, about 100 miles southeast of Nassau. The hurricane's eye is still not apparent on satellite nor was it clear in the data from today's Hurricane Hunter mission. Gusts in Nassau have reached 39 mph so far today as the hurricane approaches from the south. Buoys west of Nassau have been recording surface winds up to 39 mph, as well. On Abaco Island, just over an inch of rain has fallen today, and almost an inch of rain has fallen in Miami, where rain started last night.
Sandy's appearance on satellite is a bit ragged this afternoon as it approaches very high wind shear (40-50 knots). The hurricane is obviously already undergoing structural changes this afternoon, caused in part by an upper level low over western Cuba. This low is prohibiting Sandy's outflow on the west side, and as a result, the storm appears asymmetrical with a large area of outflow and circulation to the north, and only a tail of circulation on the southeast of the hurricane. Visually, Sandy is a huge storm. Based on clouds alone, Sandy stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, east to Bermuda, and south to the southern Caribbean Sea. Sandy's radius of outer closed isobar is 350 miles, though tropical storm-force winds only extend around 200 miles from the center.
Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy early this morning.
Forecast For Hurricane Sandy
As Sandy moves north, it will grow larger and the hurricane's energy will spread out even more, which will lead to a slight decrease in maximum wind speed. Models agree on this steady decrease in intensity over the next few days, though beyond that, the intensity forecast is still in question since Sandy could begin to gain non-tropical energy as it transitions into a non-tropical storm. The track through Saturday evening remains well understood by the models: Sandy will move north with a slight turn to the west before being yanked north-northeast again by the approaching mid-latitude trough. It's at this point in the forecast that the models diverge, though all but the HWRF are forecasting the unfortunate turn back to the west and into the Northeast U.S. Furthest south along the East Coast is the ECMWF, which forecasts a turn into Maryland/North Carolina on Monday. The GFS forecast is a bit further north than the ECMWF, pushing Sandy onshore near Long Island late Tuesday night. However, this represents a large shift south from earlier GFS runs, and puts the Mid-Atlantic into play more than it was in earlier forecasts. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center appears to be a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS. The Center is forecasting Sandy to approach the New Jersey coast on Tuesday afternoon.
There are many questions surrounding this hurricane and its forecast, but I find it important to convey that Sandy's impacts will be widespread, no matter the location of "landfall." Risk to the Mid-Atlantic seems higher this afternoon, and as Jeff noted in his morning blog, Sandy will be a very large and possibly non-tropical storm as it approaches the coast, with gale-force winds extending up to 300 miles from its center. This increases the probability of storm surge extending far from the center of the storm, which, combined with the timing of a full moon tide, is a big concern, along with freshwater and river flooding from heavy, extended periods of rain.
Angela
Figure 2. Today's "extra" 18Z (2pm EDT) weather balloon launched from the Peachtree City office of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service is launching extra weather balloons all over the country to improve the quality of forecasts as Sandy approaches. Thanks to NWS Meteorologist Alex Gibbs for snapping this shot just before launch!
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Earthquake swarms and a region-wide rotten egg smell recently reminded Southern California residents they live next to an active volcano field, tiny though it may be. At the time, scientists said the phenomena did not reflect changes in the magma chamber below the Salton Sea. But now, researchers may need to revise estimates of the potential hazard posed by the Salton Buttes - five volcanoes at the lake's southern tip. The buttes last erupted between 940 and 0 B.C., not 30,000 years ago, as previously thought, a new study detailed online Oct. 15 in the journal Geology reports. The new age - which makes these some of California's youngest volcanoes - pushes the volcanic quintuplets into active status. The California Volcano Observatory, launched in February by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), already lists the area as a high threat for future blasts. "The USGS is starting to monitor all potentially active volcanoes in California, which includes the Salton Buttes," said study author Axel Schmitt, a geochronologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. "With our results, I think this will further enhance the need to look into the system," Schmitt told OurAmazingPlanet. Schmitt and his colleagues dated zircon crystals in the hardened lava of the buttes with a relatively new technique, a "helium clock" that starts ticking once the minerals begin cooling at the surface.
The National Science Foundation's EarthScope project funds an extensive seismic imaging project in the Salton Sea that may soon reveal more information about what's happening deep underground. "We'll be looking with great interest to see what we can tell from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project," said Joann Stock, a Caltech professor and an expert on the region's volcanic hazards who was not involved in the new study. "I think (Schmitt's study) is a great contribution," she said. "It's an area where we should be concerned. We know that there's a lot of hot stuff down there," she told OurAmazingPlanet. In August, an earthquake swarm shook the nearby town of Brawley. The USGS attributed the temblors to faults in the Brawley Seismic Zone. In September, a sulfurous stench emanated from the Salton Sea and wafted across the Inland Empire. The odor was tentatively linked to a fish die-off, but could also have been caused by volcanic gases, Stock said.
Weird... the quake does not seem to show up on the USGS quake page.
WHETHER SANDY IS OFFICIALLY TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL AT LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE IMPACTS.
Hurricane SANDY QuickLook
There are all too often very thin lines between joking, nervous joking, false bravado, rank stupidity and sheer fear then helplessness!
The projected surge and wave heights alone would make me pay attention!
That's frightening, I seriously hope this is very overblown.. I liked the other one (1466) much better, and it is bad.
Link
Here is what Sandy is doing to George Town Harbour in Grand Cayman right now. Nearly 500 nautical miles ssw of the storm.
Re: East Coast High Impact Hurricane/Post Tropical Storm San
Postby Andrew » Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:26 am
Email from Jeff (and one of the most "eye opening" emails too).
(Scroll down a bit)
Potentially historic and unprecedented hurricane potential for the NE US coast.
Over the next 5 days a set of extraordinary meteorological factors will come together to potentially produce a hurricane impact on the NE US coast that has never before been experienced since the founding of this nation and the keeping of written weather records.
In response to this potential threat, all US weather balloon sounding stations are launching upper air balloons every 6 hours to incorporate the latest data into the forecast models in support of NHC and HPC forecasting operations…this has never happened before! More here
James Franklin from @NHC_Atlantic first up. #Sandy is a cat1 hurricane, 80 mph, moving NNW out of Bahamas. Turn was expected.
Franklin: Another turn back toward the N, then NW, is expected once it gets past the NC coastline. Error grows at days 3-5 days. #Sandy
Franklin: Someone is going to get a significant surge event out of this, but it's still too soon to tell whom. #Sandy
Franklin: Someone is going to get a significant surge event out of this, but it's still too soon to tell whom. #Sandy
NCEP director Uccellini: One complication is transformation from tropical to extra-tropical. #Sandy may not remain tropical to landfall.
Uccellini: When and where this transformation takes place probably won't have a big effect on impacts, however. #Sandy
Uccellini: #Sandy will cause some snow across the Apps, ctrl WV, and further west into eastern OH and into SW PA as colder air moves in.
Thanks for the info on the tremor in Assumption Parish. I was not aware that had occurred and will follow up. I've been following Sandy and have not been paying much attention to anything else. I have relatives in the Sandy impact zone.
Hoping for the best for everyone in the path of this storm.
this was a tweet from local station in boston
Link
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency website
Uccellini: Want to emphasize - still a range of solutions for #Sandy's track. Track will dictate surge, rain most. Significant surge likely.
Uccellini: Current forecast track points to significant effects and risk of flooding in DC, DE, eastern/central PA and NY.
Question: Can you explain the difference of rain/snow depending on track differences north vs south? What totals can we expect? #Sandy
Uccellini: WV will be the snow area regardless of track due to upper level pattern. #Sandy
Uccellini: 10" of rainfall likely along and east of the eventual track w/ max amount concentrated close. Shift N would include SE NY. #Sandy
Franklin: 4 days out, it doesn't pay to get too specific about winds given track error & complicated T/ET evolution at landfall. #Sandy
Question: How big will the surge be and how much damage will it do relative to #Irene? #Sandy
Franklin: No specific numbers yet, but numbers higher than #Irene for someone with #Sandy.
Franklin: Wind field & angle of attack with #Sandy means a "very, very, very large area" of surge north of the center. Bigger than
Question: Best sense for what NYC will expect? Franklin: Not 4 days out. Track error is average 200 miles. #Sandy
Franklin: If track shifts south, NYC gets low-mid TS winds. If track shifts north, NYC gets high-end TS-force. #Sandy
Uccellini: Same is true for rainfall. Shift in track north would move rainfall maximum north toward NYC. #Sandy
Uccellini: Lighter amounts in lower elevations in OH, PA, etc. Potential 4-8" in SE/E OH. #Sandy
Franklin: Diff between trop cyclone and ET: With tropical, need storms to bring fast winds down to surface. Very spotty high winds.
Franklin: In #Sandy's case, it's the large-scale pressure field driving winds. This will give us a large area with a uniform wind field.
Uccellini: The way the two systems are merging are contributing to each other to enhance the process. #Sandy
bugger, so I have been doing these for nothing??
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