Hurricane Sandy pounding Jamaica, may hit U.S. this weekend; TS Tony forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

Share this Blog
42
+

Hurricane warnings are flying for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, as an intensifying Hurricane Sandy plows north-northeast at 13 mph towards landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds of hurricane strength--75 to 80 mph--in the storm's northeast quadrant near 9:25 am EDT. Sandy's pressure at the time of the 9:28 am center fix was 973 mb, and the temperature in the eye had warmed 2°C since the 7:48 am fix, a sign of strengthening. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 2.12" of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. Winds in Jamaica have been below 20 mph as of 10 am EDT, but will start to rise quickly in the next few hours. The Hurricane Hunters found a large 55 mile-diameter eye that was open to the WNW this morning, and it is likely that Kingston will receive high winds of 55 - 65 mph from the western eyewall, which will cause considerable damage to Jamaica's capital. The eastern tip of Jamaica will likely see the eye pass overhead, and will receive the strongest winds. The eye is beginning to appear on visible satellite loops, and Sandy is showing an increasing degree of organization as it closes in on Jamaica. Sandy is the tenth hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season, which is now tied for eighth place for most hurricanes in a year since record keeping began in 1851.


Figure 1. Morning microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 8:45 am EDT. The large 55-mile diameter eye was just south of Jamaica. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Near-term forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the moderate range and ocean temperatures will be a warm 28°C through Thursday morning, which will favor intensification. However, Sandy doesn't have much time left over water before it encounters the high mountains of Jamaica this afternoon, which should interrupt the intensification process. The strongest Sandy is likely to be at landfall in Jamaica is a 90 mph Category 1 hurricanes. After encountering Jamaica, Sandy won't have time to re-organize much before making landfall in Eastern Cuba near 10 pm EDT tonight, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph, and it will be difficult for the storm to regain all of that lost strength in the face of the high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. I expect that Sandy will be a 60 - 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday, October 23, 2012. At the time, Sandy had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The Wednesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy's path after Friday, with a minority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, and the majority now predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.

When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy's rains won't affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm - 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I'll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tony.

Tropical Storm Tony forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Tony formed Tuesday night in the middle Atlantic, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this very busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Tony has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, but is battling dry air , wind shear, and ocean temperatures that have fallen below 26°C. Tony will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Thursday night.

Tony's place in history
Tony is the Nineteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for third busiest Atlantic season since the HURDAT historical data base began in 1851. With five more weeks left before the November 30 end of hurricane season, 2012 is likely to move into second place for most named storms before the year is out, as all six prior Atlantic hurricane seasons with nineteen or more named storms have had at least one named storm form after October 24. Here, then, is a list of the seven busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
2012 (19 named storms)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)

It's pretty remarkable that we've now had three straight years with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic. But how many of these storms might not have been counted in the pre-satellite era (before 1960)? Here's a list of weak and short-lived storms from 2010 - 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era:

2012:
Tropical Storm Joyce
Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Tony

2011:
Tropical Storm Jose
Tropical Storm Franklin

2010:
Tropical Storm Gaston

Even if we correct for the possible over-count of approximately two named storms per year during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 hurricane seasons, compared to the pre-satellite era, there is nothing in the HURDAT data base that compares to the type of activity we've seen the past three years. One likely contributor to the unusual string of active years is the fact hurricane season has gotten longer, perhaps due to warming ocean temperatures. I discussed in a 2008 blog post that Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 471 - 421

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Quoting LargoFl:
GRO with every model run i think we in florida are going to feel this storm in some shape or form,NWS has adjusted the warnings for east coast for possible tropical storm force winds..tomorrow might be stronger wording, me im getting ready, just in case..cant hurt any


I am sure the east coast will get plenty of high winds and rain. With the pressure gradient, even the west coast should feel very strong winds.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.


STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
E Carib + NW Carib = DRY. Weather is awesome though... Clear blue sky AND ABOVE ALL NO DUST. I HATE THE SAL.


it aint gonna be clear for long....better get some rays before you batten down the hatches....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THE GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA OR EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 32 MPH...52 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...82 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


That appears to be the GFS.
thats what i thought also..dangerous few days coming
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
The absolute worst-case scenario for this storm - in terms of economic impact and damage - is that it slams into the densely-populated DC-NYC-BOS megalopolis. And when emergency response managers run their simulations, they always have an imaginary storm making landfall during an astronomical high-tide. Well, if the model runs materialize, that's just exactly what we're going to get.

Take, for example, Long Island. In 1938, when the Long Island Express slammed into its shore, Nassau and Suffolk Counties held about 600,000 people. Today, their combined population is closer to 2.7 million - and much of the growth has come in the shore areas. The high tide will be 9.8ft on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. If a Category 2 storm were to hit, Montauk would be an island - as it was in '38 - and at least a hundred thousand people would fine their homes flooded. If it were the sort of broad, very low pressure Cat 2 that the models are showing, then the impact might be far more severe.

And that's just Long Island. Go anywhere along that corridor, and the story's the same. The northeastern shoreline bristles with development, like an overgrown hedge that hasn't been pruned in decades. I hope this thing blows out to sea. Because sooner or later, a strong hurricane will again make landfall in the northeast. And it's not going to be pretty.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
North-eastern party of Kingston (Barbican) still very quiet - on and off rain, with an occasional moderate gust

Strange since I am hearing that St. Mary and Portland (both on the northern side of the island) are getting battered - I would have thought we were first in line
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
see that model on the left?..thats the one I worry about


That appears to be the GFS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
see that model on the left?..thats the one I worry about
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
It looks like since the GFS takes longer to hook it hits the NE later and further north giving it better access to the Arctic air, causing heavy snow across PA and NY mainly but also in some surrounding atlantic states.

The ECMWF comes in faster and more south, but is potentially overdeepening this storm, so it has less access to cold air, but more pull, leading to the same snow setup.

The other models are either too weak or too early, and lead to less snow.

Barring any changes, it seems that will be the snow area.
If this bombs out though, to say a cat 3 or 4, and then maintains its low pressure through the Bahamas, would it move north faster since it can push its way?
Would it reach the pressures the ECMWF is trying to portray?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4675
From StormCarib.com:

Data round up as of midday:

Montego Bay 30 mph winds gusts to 40mph at times
Kingston 30mph winds 1.51in of rain since Midnight
Boscobel, St. Mary 30mph winds gust at 11:46 am to 56mph 1in of rain since Midnight
Negril 10mph winds gust to 10mph at 10:33am 0.26in of rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
you are going to be fine just some gusty wind the east coast of florida is a different story
yeah guess your right, im getting a lil worried about my friends over in daytona beach, they are right near the water
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
80 MPH - 2 PM
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
everything remains the same except we now have a due north motion no more nne
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
454. wpb
12ZHMRF treand west now over nassau
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I just called him and i could hear the wind howling. He is outside trying to put blocks and sandbags on his roof. I told him to leave it and go inside. The bad thing is I made sure to warn him from yesterday but I guess he doubted me lol.

hopefully he'll be safe.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8139
Quoting Grothar:
GRO with every model run i think we in florida are going to feel this storm in some shape or form,NWS has adjusted the warnings for east coast for possible tropical storm force winds..tomorrow might be stronger wording, me im getting ready, just in case..cant hurt any
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
451. gordydunnot
5:51 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Looking at the Atlantic water vapor it seems there is a high pressure area working of the Georgia/Carolina's coast. I wonder if this is the little high the Doc. referenced several blogs ago. Notice some of the clouds in the straits of Fl. and Bahamas are moving to the nw. 2 pm advisory should be interesting.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
450. Grothar
5:51 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


eye forming...RI taking place...
Maybe someone said earlier that Sandy could break Isaac's 968 mb cat 1 record... Sandy is already 75 mph with a pressure of 973...


She looks mean already.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
449. Grothar
5:50 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
448. Seflhurricane
5:50 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
2pm advisory should be out any minute
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
447. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:49 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


eye forming...RI taking place...
Maybe someone said earlier that Sandy could break Isaac's 968 mb cat 1 record... Sandy is already 75 mph with a pressure of 973...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
446. Seflhurricane
5:49 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
right now with model changes, its all guesswork out over 72 hours..but there ARE things folks in the northeast can do this weekend..just in case huh, like take in lawn furniture and things that can blow around..if you own a house, clean out gutters etc..maybe buy a few supplies in case of a power outage etc..this goes for florida and the whole east coast WHILE the storm is still days away....im on the west coast of florida and thats what im doing tomorrow..and im NOT in the path of this storm so far anyway...doesnt take much for a downed tree to take down power lines huh...stay safe and just prepare..the storm is days and days away.
you are going to be fine just some gusty wind the east coast of florida is a different story
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
445. Grothar
5:49 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I am highly curious to see what Sandy looks like once N of Cuba.


Most likely not a Hurricane again, but I expect the windfield to increase in size. When these storms mix with baroclinic lows, they can still be very powerful.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
444. nigel20
5:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel,are you in Kingston?

Yes I am. We are getting quite a bit of rain ATM.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8139
443. FunnelVortex
5:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Take care. I remember that kind of cold. Don't miss it at all


The cold sucks :(
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
442. LargoFl
5:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
right now with model changes, its all guesswork out over 72 hours..but there ARE things folks in the northeast can do this weekend..just in case huh, like take in lawn furniture and things that can blow around..if you own a house, clean out gutters etc..maybe buy a few supplies in case of a power outage etc..this goes for florida and the whole east coast WHILE the storm is still days away....im on the west coast of florida and thats what im doing tomorrow..and im NOT in the path of this storm so far anyway...doesnt take much for a downed tree to take down power lines huh...stay safe and just prepare..the storm is days and days away.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
441. Grothar
5:47 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
440. Seflhurricane
5:47 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Tropical storm Warnings will likely be issued for southern florida later today , and the possibility of an upgrade to hurricane warning for the NW bahamas is also a possibility lets see how she holds through cuba
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
439. ProgressivePulse
5:45 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I am highly curious to see what Sandy looks like once N of Cuba.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
438. CaicosRetiredSailor
5:45 PM GMT on October 24, 2012


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
437. Tropicsweatherpr
5:43 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

I've still not seen any wind, but the rain has gotten a lot heavier.


Hi nigel,are you in Kingston? Stay safe and dry.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14317
436. stormwatcherCI
5:43 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

I've still not seen any wind, but the rain has gotten a lot heavier.
I just called him and i could hear the wind howling. He is outside trying to put blocks and sandbags on his roof. I told him to leave it and go inside. The bad thing is I made sure to warn him from yesterday but I guess he doubted me lol.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
435. islander101010
5:43 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
good movies with hurricane landfalls i know two. columbus movie and key largo with bogart & becall
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4728
434. FtMyersgal
5:43 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Wausau, but snow or not, this thing is going to bring an arctic blast if the models are right.


Take care. I remember that kind of cold. Don't miss it at all
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
433. nigel20
5:41 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
My daughter just spoke to her husband in Mandeville. They are receiving very gusty winds and heavy rain. Structural damage is also occuring. His brand new house has lost zinc and guttering.

I've still not seen any wind, but the rain has gotten a lot heavier.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8139
432. Grothar
5:40 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
431. Maryland1
5:40 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
the run im worried about may be 2 pm thurs


No question. That's the boat pulling run for about a 1000 miles of coast. Today is just the put it in the back of your mind day.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
430. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
5:39 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Sandy's circulation is spinning so fast, it's about to share punches with Jamaica though, and then Cuba.
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 477
429. LargoFl
5:39 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
428. NEwxguy
5:38 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting wpb:
with most of the models resluts showing a strong system in new england. local officals should start opening the residents eyes for this increasing posability


Although I haven't heard any warnings from our emergency management still too early,but I have no doubt behind the scenes is going crazy with preparations and possible announcements.our forecasters are still playing it close to the vest.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15830
427. stormwatcherCI
5:38 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
A view of the sea in Kingston (Jamaica Gleaner)
My daughter just spoke to her husband in Mandeville. They are receiving very gusty winds and heavy rain. Structural damage is also occuring. His brand new house has lost zinc and guttering.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
426. LargoFl
5:38 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting weatherskink:


LOL . I was kidding . I'm not that stupid .
ok thats good news, stay safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
425. weatherskink
5:37 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
dont..huge rip currents are forcasted, stay OUT of the water


LOL . I was kidding . I'm not that stupid .
Member Since: September 3, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
424. Seflhurricane
5:36 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
looks like sandy is moving due north now
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
423. LargoFl
5:36 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Quoting gordydunnot:
Wouldn't you think there will be a shift of the cone at 2pm back west, or they will need more runs?
the run im worried about may be 2 pm thurs
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
422. SFLWeatherman
5:35 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
yes thx!:)
Quoting LargoFl:
Linkwhich..the winds?
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4675
421. islander101010
5:35 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Sandy please wobble
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4728

Viewing: 471 - 421

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.