Hurricane Sandy pounding Jamaica, may hit U.S. this weekend; TS Tony forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

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Hurricane warnings are flying for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, as an intensifying Hurricane Sandy plows north-northeast at 13 mph towards landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds of hurricane strength--75 to 80 mph--in the storm's northeast quadrant near 9:25 am EDT. Sandy's pressure at the time of the 9:28 am center fix was 973 mb, and the temperature in the eye had warmed 2°C since the 7:48 am fix, a sign of strengthening. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 2.12" of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. Winds in Jamaica have been below 20 mph as of 10 am EDT, but will start to rise quickly in the next few hours. The Hurricane Hunters found a large 55 mile-diameter eye that was open to the WNW this morning, and it is likely that Kingston will receive high winds of 55 - 65 mph from the western eyewall, which will cause considerable damage to Jamaica's capital. The eastern tip of Jamaica will likely see the eye pass overhead, and will receive the strongest winds. The eye is beginning to appear on visible satellite loops, and Sandy is showing an increasing degree of organization as it closes in on Jamaica. Sandy is the tenth hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season, which is now tied for eighth place for most hurricanes in a year since record keeping began in 1851.


Figure 1. Morning microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 8:45 am EDT. The large 55-mile diameter eye was just south of Jamaica. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Near-term forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the moderate range and ocean temperatures will be a warm 28°C through Thursday morning, which will favor intensification. However, Sandy doesn't have much time left over water before it encounters the high mountains of Jamaica this afternoon, which should interrupt the intensification process. The strongest Sandy is likely to be at landfall in Jamaica is a 90 mph Category 1 hurricanes. After encountering Jamaica, Sandy won't have time to re-organize much before making landfall in Eastern Cuba near 10 pm EDT tonight, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph, and it will be difficult for the storm to regain all of that lost strength in the face of the high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. I expect that Sandy will be a 60 - 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday, October 23, 2012. At the time, Sandy had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The Wednesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy's path after Friday, with a minority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, and the majority now predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.

When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy's rains won't affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm - 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I'll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tony.

Tropical Storm Tony forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Tony formed Tuesday night in the middle Atlantic, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this very busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Tony has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, but is battling dry air , wind shear, and ocean temperatures that have fallen below 26°C. Tony will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Thursday night.

Tony's place in history
Tony is the Nineteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for third busiest Atlantic season since the HURDAT historical data base began in 1851. With five more weeks left before the November 30 end of hurricane season, 2012 is likely to move into second place for most named storms before the year is out, as all six prior Atlantic hurricane seasons with nineteen or more named storms have had at least one named storm form after October 24. Here, then, is a list of the seven busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
2012 (19 named storms)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)

It's pretty remarkable that we've now had three straight years with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic. But how many of these storms might not have been counted in the pre-satellite era (before 1960)? Here's a list of weak and short-lived storms from 2010 - 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era:

2012:
Tropical Storm Joyce
Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Tony

2011:
Tropical Storm Jose
Tropical Storm Franklin

2010:
Tropical Storm Gaston

Even if we correct for the possible over-count of approximately two named storms per year during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 hurricane seasons, compared to the pre-satellite era, there is nothing in the HURDAT data base that compares to the type of activity we've seen the past three years. One likely contributor to the unusual string of active years is the fact hurricane season has gotten longer, perhaps due to warming ocean temperatures. I discussed in a 2008 blog post that Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41170
The ECMWF places the largest snow risk over New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, and Virginia (a tad in southern Virginia)

Amounts range from 3-10 inches, with the highest amounts in WV, and PA

7 days so this will change a lot.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SE FL!


That's a big kink. Interestingly enough is just east of the furthest east point of FL.
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WTNT63 KNHC 241918
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH...
130 KM/H.
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TROPICAL UPDATE
__________________________
I'll be uploading another graphic on the potential NE impact shortly...

Tropical Storm Sandy



click on the pic for bigger 4x size
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Quoting jeffs713:

I know. I never said (or implied you did) either. When people hear "impact" they think "landfall". Landfall means the full brunt of the storm, while brush means you will get smacked, but not with the whole 2x4. If Sandy is 100 miles off the coast, OBX will get some TS winds without a doubt, as would the surrounding coastline.

Also... I wasn't aware the ECMWF had a 10m wind product. (I could be wrong, though... since I only see the ECMWF stuff y'all post)


Yeah..Allan's site has one now..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
No wind and faded sunshine in Kingston at the moment:

Link
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Euro bottoms out at 934 millibars just west of the mouth of the chesapeake bay, bringing extremely high winds to the whole are october 29-30

Then it clips the delmarva peninsula, bringing extremely high winds there.

It finally makes landfall on the southern edge of New Jersey before moving inland into Pennsylvania.

Right now North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey are in the most trouble.

Delaware and Maryland are gonna get it if the ECMWF has its way.


Been watching, in fact can't seem to take my eyes off of it right now. Chesapeake Bay water front in SE VA.

NOAA surge model starting to show things to come, this is where it starts to get real nerve racking!

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Quoting Slamguitar:


A big question mark is rather fitting ATM.


LOL. Yes.
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662. wpb
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
good post
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm putting my middle finger up at the Euro right now..Ever sinced I teased the cmc the models have had it out for me.So now they send a super storm for me of epic porpotons.Right now I have that "believe it when I see it" attitude.My local mets aren't all that excited about it either but they are questioning it.


Other models are showing it too now, including the GFS
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SE FL!
geez
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41170
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SE FL!


A big question mark is rather fitting ATM.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, once again I see I missed a lot. I saw the 12z GFS, dang. -___- Sandy is looking more like a hurricane(I know she is one) and she could hit higher than 80-85mph. The NE could really get something from Sandy.

Cause we really want her here... -_- not
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000
WTNT63 KNHC 241918
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH...
130 KM/H.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Which model is that? Those winds seem very high.
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SE FL!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4967
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED
BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL
DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE
SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR
REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

--------------------------------------

THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION
EVOLVES...

Not sure if that has been posted yet.
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2PM going west now!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4967
Good afternoon everyone, once again I see I missed a lot. I saw the 12z GFS, dang. -___- Also I noticed the other models stay the same with having her go to the NE. Sandy is looking more like a hurricane(I know she is one) and she could hit higher than 80-85mph. The NE could really get something from Sandy.
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648. CloudGatherer 3:15 PM AST on October 24, 2012

Most notably:
NOTING SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE
SYSTEM...WHETHER AS A TROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM AND BRINGING IT
TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS OP RUN AS WELL AS SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS AND SOME OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE. ONE OF THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS HAS BEEN THE OP RUN OF
THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN BULLISH IN WRAPPING THE SYSTEM NWWD BACK
TO THE COAST. THE CANADIAN GGEM HAS BEEN LESS CONSISTENT AND ITS OP
RUN ACTUALLY KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE THOUGH SOME OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME BACKING.
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Early 18Z

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almost looks like two storms huh...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41170
From the Taunton MA office's 1:47pm discussion:

OF COURSE...THIS SCENARIO HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS. LOOKING FROM A
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE AND EVALUATING THE LITERATURE...WE SEE
PATTERNS FROM HAZEL IN 1954 AND THE GREAT GALE OF 1878 IN WHERE
TROPICAL SYSTEMS DID NOT CURVE SIGNIFICANTLY BACK TO THE WEST...AND
THIS IS THE SAME CONCERNING A CLIMATOLOGICAL LITERARY REVIEW
EVALUATING LATE SYSTEM SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN PROXIMITY TO BERMUDA.
HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN AWKWARD MOVING SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION SUCH AS ESTHER IN 1961 THAT ACTUALLY MADE A LARGE LOOP OFF
CAPE COD BEFORE MOVING JUST EAST OF THE CAPE INTO WESTERN MAINE IN
SEPTEMBER 1961.

NOTING SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE
SYSTEM...WHETHER AS A TROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM AND BRINGING IT
TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS OP RUN AS WELL AS SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS AND SOME OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE. ONE OF THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS HAS BEEN THE OP RUN OF
THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN BULLISH IN WRAPPING THE SYSTEM NWWD BACK
TO THE COAST. THE CANADIAN GGEM HAS BEEN LESS CONSISTENT AND ITS OP
RUN ACTUALLY KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE THOUGH SOME OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME BACKING.

THERE IS NO GOOD SOLN /ENSEMBLE OR OPERATIONAL/ TO FOLLOW AT THIS
TIME...SO STUCK CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS WITH EITHER A COMPLETE
MISS /HIGH SEAS ON THE OPEN WATERS/...A CLOSE PASS /STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS POSSIBLY LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING AND ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES/...OR A DIRECT HIT /STRONG WINDS WITH PARTIALLY FOLIATED
TREES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...HIGH SEAS
COMBINED WITH WINDS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE...AND
FINALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN INTERIOR FLOODING/.

THERE WILL BE MANY MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THAT SHOULD GIVE US MORE CONFIDENCE TO THIS SYSTEM/S
ULTIMATE TRACK. THE BEST ADVICE IS TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR EVERY SCENARIO...BEST OR WORST CASE.
-----------

Let's just say that when you're looking to the Great Gale of 1878 for guidance, you're looking at a somewhat unusual system. That's also - for those scoring at home - the worst hurricane on record for the Baltimore/Washington area.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm putting my middle finger up at the Euro right now..Ever sinced I teased the cmc the models have had it out for me.So now they send a super storm for me of epic porpotons.Right now I have that "believe it when I see it" attitude.My local mets aren't all that excited about it either but they are questioning it.


Which is the correct mentality at this point. Ignore some of the people on this blog who jump to conclusions at the snap of a finger or one model run.
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Is Pennsylvania going to be majorly impacted???
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Interesting times ahead..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
Quoting sporteguy03:

The way you explained it would be how the NoGaps sees the impacts on Florida.


I feel much better then :-)

Although, the NoGaps is right on occasion.
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


We dont know where it is going to hit, people have to be aware.


If it hits anywhere.
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I'm putting my middle finger up at the Euro right now..Ever sinced I teased the cmc the models have had it out for me.So now they send a super storm for me of epic porpotons.Right now I have that "believe it when I see it" attitude.My local mets aren't all that excited about it either but they are questioning it.
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Quoting islander101010:
good movies with hurricane landfalls i know two. columbus movie and key largo with bogart & becall
How about Hurricane with Dorothy Lamore. Pretty old but good scene of wind and storm surge. She ties herself to a Banyan tree.
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Quoting Grothar:


Uhhhh...
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Quoting kap333:
is it possible the reason the ECMWF has Sandy going into Mid-Atlantic - New England because of Tony's presence??


No.
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Quoting Grothar:
Eye is about to hit Jamaica. Now you guys know I don't do "wobbles", but did the eye take a little jog west?



It has been wobbling a bit from this morning but looks still to be due N to me. It will be interesting to see if passage over the mountainous terrain throws the track off in one direction or another.

This has happened before with other systems.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not as much as you might think for systems like this. Mountains can do far stranger things to a systems structure than weaken it. My guess is that it will weaken to 70-75mph in the passing, then strengthen to 90-100mph in the Bahamas. Not entirely sure what the NHC is thinking that it won't intensify after Cuba.

There was a storm, I think it was Fay, that went all the way through DR mountains, and we all know the damages she caused
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Quoting Grothar:
Eye is about to hit Jamaica. Now you guys know I don't do "wobbles", but did the eye take a little jog west?


Yep, then bounced back east.
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Take a look at some webcam live video from Kingston. They are about to enter the eye!

Kingston Jamaica Webcam
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


If it gets to west end and the weather is packed in the west we would be really, really close to the 50K sustained winds. Granted that would be a "Worst" case scenario but, it is possible. That would throw people for a loop for sure. Way too close for comfort to get complacent, IMO. Look at what happened to Charley.

The way you explained it would be how the NoGaps sees the impacts on Florida.
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is it possible the reason the ECMWF has Sandy going into Mid-Atlantic - New England because of Tony's presence??
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


If it gets to west end and the weather is packed in the west we would be really, really close to the 50K sustained winds. Granted that would be a "Worst" case scenario but, it is possible. That would throw people for a loop for sure. Way too close for comfort to get complacent, IMO. Look at what happened to Charley.


If I read or heard correctly with a storm that is extratropical, there are no quadrants..Florida will have a tropical storm but all points northward could be dealing with a powerful noreaster..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4967
Quoting AllStar17:


Not really. It is still 5 or 6 days out. Far from certain. How many times have you seen the forecast change in 5 or 6 days?


We dont know where it is going to hit, people have to be aware.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
NJ...FOR NOW, THE INTERACTION OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND THE TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. AS THIS IS A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41170
Eye is about to hit Jamaica. Now you guys know I don't do "wobbles", but did the eye take a little jog west?

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Quoting FunnelVortex:


No matter where it hits, the superstorm/snowicane/whateveryouwanttocallit scenario is almost certin. People MUST prepare!


Not really. It is still 5 or 6 days out. Far from certain. How many times have you seen the forecast change in 5 or 6 days?
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Quoting jeffs713:

Especially with how big the circulation will likely be once it is that far north.


Now thats scary.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting kmanislander:
Northern eyewall near to or just starting to come ashore



Almost fully closed!
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Quoting SouthTampa:
A little hyperbole here, but hey, since we're playing: "why not toss some Ativan or Versed in there?". That would be duplicate therapy - Ativan (lorazepam), Versed (midazolam) and Xanax (alprazolam) are all benzodiazepines... "What could possibly go wrong?" Respiratory depression is the most likely thing that could go wrong.

I know. That's why I tossed them in. :) All 3 of the drugs in the magic mix have sedative properties.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I've never researched the deforestation of Haiti. However, do you know if others countries or organizations have attempted to re-plant the forests? It would be a major project but seems necessary.

The forest were removed to provide building material and cooking fuel for a starving Nation.
One would think that after all the billions of dollars sent to Haiti by the World Bank and others, re-forestation would have been started at least.
But it never was.....

anyway, enough of that.
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New Jersey has changed its forecast...............AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
108 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WE HAVE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH A DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
PASSING SHOWER NORTH OF PHILLY AS WELL PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ DUE TO THE FRONT. HAD TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE LATEST
METAR OBS. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN
BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS, SO TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR THE SOUTH
AND DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN NW NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHER AREAS AS WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIPPLE THROUGH THE RISING MID LEVEL FLOW...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE
EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD FORM IN PLACE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPREAD OUT TO JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS
(EXCEPT PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE. THE 0000 UTC GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...BUT EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE TOP OF THE INVERSION FOR
STRATUS. BASED ON THE ABOVE...ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH SHOULD
BECOME CLOUDY.

THE NEXT PROBLEM IS FOG AND DRIZZLE. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AN
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...WHERE THE FLOW IS MODESTLY
UPSLOPE. ELSEWHERE...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR...BUT DENSITY IS
IN QUESTION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS COULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
TO COOL THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AND INDUCE DENSER FOG TO FORM.

FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...BUT NOT HIT IT TOO HARD.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT...SYNOPTICALLY...HAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST IS A FAVORED PATTERN FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE REASSESSED BY LATER SHIFTS.

THE LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY THE 0000 UTC GFS ALLOWS
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES. SINCE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE THE GFS TIMING...LOWS WERE BASED
MORE ON A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARDS. WITH MAINLY LIGHT
EAST WINDS OFF OF THE ATLANTIC, A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB MODEL TEMPS STILL YIELD
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH
THE LIGHT EAST FLOW, THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
FRIDAY, AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED. SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST AND ALSO THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HAVE THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK OF SANDY, BUT SOME GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. STILL, OTHER
MODEL DATA RECURVES SANDY MORE SHARPLY AND TAKES THE SYSTEM MORE
EAST AND OUT TO SEA. IN COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD, WE HAVE MADE
SMALL CHANGES TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED FCST. AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
COME TO CLOSER AGREEMENT, ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE TO THIS
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, THE INTERACTION OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND THE TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. AS THIS IS A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41170
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Euro bottoms out at 934 millibars just west of the mouth of the chesapeake bay, bringing extremely high winds to the whole are october 29-30

Then it clips the delmarva peninsula, bringing extremely high winds there.

It finally makes landfall on the southern edge of New Jersey before moving inland into Pennsylvania.

Right now North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey are in the most trouble.

Delaware and Maryland are gonna get it if the ECMWF has its way.


I am ready here in VA. So not ready to lose power especially if temperatures after the storm will dip below freezing!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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