Hurricane Sandy pounding Jamaica, may hit U.S. this weekend; TS Tony forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

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Hurricane warnings are flying for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, as an intensifying Hurricane Sandy plows north-northeast at 13 mph towards landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds of hurricane strength--75 to 80 mph--in the storm's northeast quadrant near 9:25 am EDT. Sandy's pressure at the time of the 9:28 am center fix was 973 mb, and the temperature in the eye had warmed 2°C since the 7:48 am fix, a sign of strengthening. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 2.12" of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. Winds in Jamaica have been below 20 mph as of 10 am EDT, but will start to rise quickly in the next few hours. The Hurricane Hunters found a large 55 mile-diameter eye that was open to the WNW this morning, and it is likely that Kingston will receive high winds of 55 - 65 mph from the western eyewall, which will cause considerable damage to Jamaica's capital. The eastern tip of Jamaica will likely see the eye pass overhead, and will receive the strongest winds. The eye is beginning to appear on visible satellite loops, and Sandy is showing an increasing degree of organization as it closes in on Jamaica. Sandy is the tenth hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season, which is now tied for eighth place for most hurricanes in a year since record keeping began in 1851.


Figure 1. Morning microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 8:45 am EDT. The large 55-mile diameter eye was just south of Jamaica. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Near-term forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the moderate range and ocean temperatures will be a warm 28°C through Thursday morning, which will favor intensification. However, Sandy doesn't have much time left over water before it encounters the high mountains of Jamaica this afternoon, which should interrupt the intensification process. The strongest Sandy is likely to be at landfall in Jamaica is a 90 mph Category 1 hurricanes. After encountering Jamaica, Sandy won't have time to re-organize much before making landfall in Eastern Cuba near 10 pm EDT tonight, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph, and it will be difficult for the storm to regain all of that lost strength in the face of the high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. I expect that Sandy will be a 60 - 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday, October 23, 2012. At the time, Sandy had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The Wednesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy's path after Friday, with a minority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, and the majority now predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.

When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy's rains won't affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm - 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I'll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tony.

Tropical Storm Tony forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Tony formed Tuesday night in the middle Atlantic, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this very busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Tony has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, but is battling dry air , wind shear, and ocean temperatures that have fallen below 26°C. Tony will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Thursday night.

Tony's place in history
Tony is the Nineteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for third busiest Atlantic season since the HURDAT historical data base began in 1851. With five more weeks left before the November 30 end of hurricane season, 2012 is likely to move into second place for most named storms before the year is out, as all six prior Atlantic hurricane seasons with nineteen or more named storms have had at least one named storm form after October 24. Here, then, is a list of the seven busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
2012 (19 named storms)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)

It's pretty remarkable that we've now had three straight years with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic. But how many of these storms might not have been counted in the pre-satellite era (before 1960)? Here's a list of weak and short-lived storms from 2010 - 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era:

2012:
Tropical Storm Joyce
Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Tony

2011:
Tropical Storm Jose
Tropical Storm Franklin

2010:
Tropical Storm Gaston

Even if we correct for the possible over-count of approximately two named storms per year during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 hurricane seasons, compared to the pre-satellite era, there is nothing in the HURDAT data base that compares to the type of activity we've seen the past three years. One likely contributor to the unusual string of active years is the fact hurricane season has gotten longer, perhaps due to warming ocean temperatures. I discussed in a 2008 blog post that Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JRRP:
Interesting
note the model spread, dont like the one going westward..man we need to watch this closely
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Quoting nigel20:
It's not lokking good for us in eastern Jamaica. It's going to bee a long day.
you stay safe nigel ok
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118. JRRP
Interesting
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Remember, Jamacia is small. There is a chance that the mountains could force moisture up substaining it.


Jamaica wont help a hurricane.
Jamaica is a serial hurricane-killer
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Quoting K8eCane:



I believe we will be fine but i have no clue about neighbors to north and south.


GFS keeps shifting west and making the turn later and the euro run has hurricane force winds for coastal NC..if the 12z GFS comes even farther west, our area will be looking at another ball game and a different write up from the NWS..it was 960 mb off our coast in the Euro run..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
REMEMBER PORTLIGHT! They are very supportive in these catastrophes!
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Jamaica's most rugged terrain is approximately where Sandy will be going over. It's best chance of getting as strong as she can get before Cuba is most likely the next several hours before landfall on Jamaica's southern coast.



Remember, Jamacia is small. There is a chance that the mountains could force moisture up substaining it.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting Seflhurricane:
remember any motion towards the nnw or to the left will bring stronger winds to Southern Florida , but very likely we will see a TS warning for the Se coast later today
watches are up all the way up to daytona etc
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
Welcome Hurricane Sandy!
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Welcome Hurricane Sandy!
Welcome? Are you sick?
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Hurricane Sandy is giving on a real show. Take note Ernesto and Isaac, this is how real hurricanes strengthen in the Caribbean.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Sandy is an 80 MPH category one.

The latest forcecast had the cone shift even farther west.

I belive the Snowicane scenario is correct.

Hurricane winds, snow, freezing rain, storm surge, inland and coastal flooding, possibly supercells and tornadoes... guys, this is pretty serious. This isnt just a hurricane, its a superstorm.


Easy there....7 days to go, 4 days till we can properly say anything should really happen in the NE.
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting WxLogic:
Looks like Sandy might be starting to turn to the NNW/NW. I'll be surprised if it pulls a NOGAPS.

At least the current steering would support that motion:



Nogaps has the entire east coast..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
Quoting ncstorm:


too much uncertanity with the track still

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COASTAL AREAS MAY BE IN FOR A BREEZY WEEKEND
AS SANDY MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS
FAR WEST WILL BE INTERESTING AS WELL ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC WINDS
ASIDE, ANY SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME EVEN HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS. SANDY`S BIGGEST EFFECTS BY FAR THOUGH WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST IN THE FORM OF LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIPS. ITS CLOSEST
PASSAGE WILL BE JUST 2 DAYS FROM FULL MOON SO TIDES MAY BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. SANDY WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY
HOLDING UP THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.



I believe we will be fine but i have no clue about neighbors to north and south.
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remember any motion towards the nnw or to the left will bring stronger winds to Southern Florida , but very likely we will see a TS warning for the Se coast later today
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Hurricane SANDY Forecast Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT23 KNHC 241458
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1500 UTC WED OCT 24 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 76.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 76.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.4N 76.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 130SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.3N 76.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 130SE 90SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 120SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 76.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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It's not lokking good for us in eastern Jamaica. It's going to bee a long day.
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Looks like Sandy might be starting to turn to the NNW/NW. I'll be surprised if it pulls a NOGAPS.

At least the current steering would support that motion:

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tropical Storm Watch for Palm Beach and Broward County in FL.!!!!!!!!!!
yes east coast is in for some windy rainy few days ahead,good luck over there ok
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Sandy is an 80 MPH category one.

The latest forcecast had the cone shift even farther west.

I belive the Snowicane scenario is correct.

Hurricane winds, snow, freezing rain, storm surge, inland and coastal flooding, possibly supercells and tornadoes... guys, this is pretty serious. This isnt just a hurricane, its a superstorm.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting kmanislander:
Wow

This looks like a new center fix. Wobble back to the NNW ??

Time: 14:50:30Z
Coordinates: 17.0833N 76.7833W Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,930 meters (~ 9,613 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 972.7 mb (~ 28.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 103 at 3 knots (From the ESE at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 16.3C (~ 61.3F)
Dew Pt: 3.1C (~ 37.6F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 12 knots (~ 13.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)

Wow... this was posted near ten times now if you include the quotes.
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Quoting K8eCane:
Lord Knows Im used to storms. It gets old after a while. But it would be nice to know what to realistically expect here in Wilmington NC. Guess i could check local NWS. Havent done that yet and sometimes they are wishy washy


too much uncertanity with the track still

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COASTAL AREAS MAY BE IN FOR A BREEZY WEEKEND
AS SANDY MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS
FAR WEST WILL BE INTERESTING AS WELL ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC WINDS
ASIDE, ANY SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME EVEN HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS. SANDY`S BIGGEST EFFECTS BY FAR THOUGH WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST IN THE FORM OF LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIPS. ITS CLOSEST
PASSAGE WILL BE JUST 2 DAYS FROM FULL MOON SO TIDES MAY BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. SANDY WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY
HOLDING UP THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN
JAMAICA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
For what it's worth, if Sandy keeps on dropping it's pressure like that, it's entirely possible we could be facing a Category 2 as it approaches Cuba. It has a good 24 hours over water before a landfall in Cuba.


There are big mountains in its way before Cuba.....
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Wow

This looks like a new center fix. Wobble back to the NNW ??

Time: 14:50:30Z
Coordinates: 17.0833N 76.7833W Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,930 meters (~ 9,613 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 972.7 mb (~ 28.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 103° at 3 knots (From the ESE at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 16.3°C (~ 61.3°F)
Dew Pt: 3.1°C (~ 37.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 12 knots (~ 13.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Significant drop in pressure occurring. That's over a 8mb drop since the last vortex.
972.7 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg)

Flight level winds:
82 knots
(~ 94.3 mph)

More hurricane force SFMR:
65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph)
Good thing it's going over the land in a few hours... prayer for Jamaica.
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Time: 14:50:30Z
Coordinates: 17.0833N 76.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,930 meters (~ 9,613 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 972.7 mb (~ 28.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 103° at 3 knots (From the ESE at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 16.3°C (~ 61.3°F)
Dew Pt: 3.1°C (~ 37.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 12 knots (~ 13.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

RI shall I say!
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Quoting Undertaker:
The weather in Montego Bay is picking up. We now have moderate rain and wind. I will post a few pics to just show what the place looks like.

Regarding the persons on Pedro Cays, our soldiers went to get them and it seems as if a few stayed behind. It can't be good for them because they will have no where to ride out the storm. May God be with them and us.




are you the real undertaker from WWE?
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PRAYERS FOR ALL IN PATH!!
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For what it's worth, if Sandy keeps on dropping it's pressure like that, it's entirely possible we could be facing a Category 2 as it approaches Cuba. It has a good 24 hours over water before a landfall in Cuba.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
Tropical Storm Watch for Palm Beach and Broward County in FL.!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4666
...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 24
Location: 17.1°N 76.7°W
Moving: NNE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NORTH
INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK. SANDY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT
MOVES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.
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The weather in Montego Bay is picking up. We now have moderate rain and wind. I will post a few pics to just show what the place looks like.

Regarding the persons on Pedro Cays, our soldiers went to get them and it seems as if a few stayed behind. It can't be good for them because they will have no where to ride out the storm. May God be with them and us.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


An eye. Thats deffinatley a 'cane
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Significant drop in pressure occurring. That's over a 8mb drop since the last vortex.
972.7 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg)

Flight level winds:
82 knots
(~ 94.3 mph)

More hurricane force SFMR:
65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph)


how much time has it been since the last vortex?
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based on the extropical nature of many of our earlier storms I don't see why the late season or post season wouldn't get a few tropical conversions. We still have that heat pool in the West Caribbean which might fire up a Paula or Rina like storm.
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eye might be making a move for the windward passage
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We have Hurricane Sandy! 80mph with a pressure of 973mb.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
CIMSS model brings Sandy ashore over Florida..
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Significant drop in pressure occurring. That's over a 8mb drop since the last vortex.
972.7 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg)

Flight level winds:
82 knots
(~ 94.3 mph)

More hurricane force SFMR:
65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
Hurricane at 11am.. Upgraded
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the recon found 972mb
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Quoting islander101010:
doubt if we will see many more post from jamaica no doubt they will experience the eye wall as the eye hopefully wobbles east around the island.


Depends where they take shelter - I was able, in Cayman Brac, to post throughout Paloma (which was a direct Cat3/4 Hit), as well as for the duration of the Recovery - but I admit I am fortunate enough to work for a Data Centre with hardened facilities, excellent stand by power and world class Fibre connections.
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Sandy is definitely bombing out before landfall. Extremely intense burst of convection around the eyewall, right near Kingston. Watch out Jamaica and stay safe people!
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Holy crap:

145030 1705N 07647W 6966 02930 9727 +163 +031 103003 012 014 002 00

972.7mb... Bombing right before Jamaica. I hope they are ready.


I see she and Ernesto share the same twisted sense of humour. Perhaps they are related?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.