Hurricane Sandy pounding Jamaica, may hit U.S. this weekend; TS Tony forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

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Hurricane warnings are flying for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, as an intensifying Hurricane Sandy plows north-northeast at 13 mph towards landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds of hurricane strength--75 to 80 mph--in the storm's northeast quadrant near 9:25 am EDT. Sandy's pressure at the time of the 9:28 am center fix was 973 mb, and the temperature in the eye had warmed 2°C since the 7:48 am fix, a sign of strengthening. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 2.12" of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. Winds in Jamaica have been below 20 mph as of 10 am EDT, but will start to rise quickly in the next few hours. The Hurricane Hunters found a large 55 mile-diameter eye that was open to the WNW this morning, and it is likely that Kingston will receive high winds of 55 - 65 mph from the western eyewall, which will cause considerable damage to Jamaica's capital. The eastern tip of Jamaica will likely see the eye pass overhead, and will receive the strongest winds. The eye is beginning to appear on visible satellite loops, and Sandy is showing an increasing degree of organization as it closes in on Jamaica. Sandy is the tenth hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season, which is now tied for eighth place for most hurricanes in a year since record keeping began in 1851.


Figure 1. Morning microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 8:45 am EDT. The large 55-mile diameter eye was just south of Jamaica. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Near-term forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the moderate range and ocean temperatures will be a warm 28°C through Thursday morning, which will favor intensification. However, Sandy doesn't have much time left over water before it encounters the high mountains of Jamaica this afternoon, which should interrupt the intensification process. The strongest Sandy is likely to be at landfall in Jamaica is a 90 mph Category 1 hurricanes. After encountering Jamaica, Sandy won't have time to re-organize much before making landfall in Eastern Cuba near 10 pm EDT tonight, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph, and it will be difficult for the storm to regain all of that lost strength in the face of the high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. I expect that Sandy will be a 60 - 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday, October 23, 2012. At the time, Sandy had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The Wednesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy's path after Friday, with a minority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, and the majority now predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.

When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy's rains won't affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm - 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I'll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tony.

Tropical Storm Tony forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Tony formed Tuesday night in the middle Atlantic, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this very busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Tony has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, but is battling dry air , wind shear, and ocean temperatures that have fallen below 26°C. Tony will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Thursday night.

Tony's place in history
Tony is the Nineteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for third busiest Atlantic season since the HURDAT historical data base began in 1851. With five more weeks left before the November 30 end of hurricane season, 2012 is likely to move into second place for most named storms before the year is out, as all six prior Atlantic hurricane seasons with nineteen or more named storms have had at least one named storm form after October 24. Here, then, is a list of the seven busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
2012 (19 named storms)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)

It's pretty remarkable that we've now had three straight years with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic. But how many of these storms might not have been counted in the pre-satellite era (before 1960)? Here's a list of weak and short-lived storms from 2010 - 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era:

2012:
Tropical Storm Joyce
Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Tony

2011:
Tropical Storm Jose
Tropical Storm Franklin

2010:
Tropical Storm Gaston

Even if we correct for the possible over-count of approximately two named storms per year during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 hurricane seasons, compared to the pre-satellite era, there is nothing in the HURDAT data base that compares to the type of activity we've seen the past three years. One likely contributor to the unusual string of active years is the fact hurricane season has gotten longer, perhaps due to warming ocean temperatures. I discussed in a 2008 blog post that Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Jeff Masters

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12Z GFS INIT 24 OCT hr 072 TILL 144


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Closer to the USA on this run... We'll see what if does when the next frames come up.

12 GFS 72 hours.
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There are reports of very heavy rain and strong winds in St Thomas And Portland (eastern Jamaica)
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218. MTWX
Quoting LargoFl:
just talked to DC..too warm there for snow probably same in NYC, dunno about boston and north so far...........

Goint to be too warm along the coast, but if bands get on the western side of the Appalachians, the night time temps (upper 20's- low 30's) will be more favorable for some of the white stuff. Don't see any real accumulations anywhere, but it may fall...
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12Z GFS INIT 24 OCT hr 048 TILL 144


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new GFS at 72 hours....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Quoting guygee:
Well I don't watch much TV, but my news source says they have nothing to argue about:

Saying that the high-value target represented a major threat to their most vital objectives, Obama administration officials confirmed tonight that former governor Mitt Romney was killed by a predator drone while attending a presidential debate at Lynn University....
...The information we have received from military personnel in the field indicate that tonight’s drone strike took out Mitt Romney, a former businessman the Obama administration has long considered a serious danger, especially in past few weeks,” said White House press secretary Jay Carney...
...The drone strike, which killed three of Romney’s sons sitting near the debate stage, reportedly also took the lives of at least 45 civilians, including 12 Lynn University students, nine Secret Service agents, first daughter Malia Obama, and two cameramen. “Military operations of this ilk are dangerous, and occasionally a few innocent civilians get caught in the crossfire,” said Carney, describing the lost arm and severe second-degree facial burns inflicted on debate moderator Bob Schieffer as “necessary collateral damage.”

Full Story (Onion News)


LOL
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12Z GFS INIT 24 OCT hr 024 TILL 144


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12Z GFS INIT 24 OCT hr 000 TILL 144


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Quoting Abacosurf:
Top notch...LMAO 75% of the homes built near the coast in the U.S. would crumble in a slow moving cat 4.


And most hurricanes do not make landfall as CAT 4s, do they?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
In addition to the immediate track over Jamaica, all of that displaced convection to the E-NE is going to cause flooding over Hispanola and some of the rain (to a lesser degree) is inching towards Puerto Rico. A widespread flooding threat and impact for the Greater Antilles.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
971.3 mb
(~ 28.68 inHg)


Wow!!
Maybe the coastline and montains of Jamaica enhanced RI, compressing the storm to its north?

Poor Jamaica and esp. Kingston! Storm is heading right their way.
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Whoah. The Hunter is making another center pass, and just registered an extrapolated surface pressure of 971.3MB. It also found 65kt SFMR winds in the southeastern quadrant. There may not be a whole lot of time here before she hits Jamaica, but she's certainly making a run at strengthening.
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What happened to the blogger in NJ who bought the new wind speed indicator and thought he would never use it?...he just might get his chance..
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Kingston, Jamaica still very mild- on and off medium rain, occasional light gusts

not sure where in Jamaica is being pounded yet
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Time: 15:40:00Z
Coordinates: 17.2333N 76.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.6 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,917 meters (~ 9,570 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 971.3 mb (~ 28.68 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 263° at 10 knots (From the W at ~ 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: 16.0°C (~ 60.8°F)
Dew Pt: 6.0°C (~ 42.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 11 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Apparently a N/NNW motion at the moment.
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Link
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


I wish these countries had money so they could build top-notch hurricane-resistant homes like the ones in Florida.

But sadly, thats not the case.
Top notch...LMAO 75% of the homes built near the coast in the U.S. would crumble in a slow moving cat 4.
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There are two main components to a Nor'easter:


Gulf Stream low-pressure system — (counter-clockwise winds). These systems generate off the coast of Florida as the air above the Gulf Stream warms and spawns a low-pressure system. That low circulates off the southeastern U.S. coast, gathering warm air and moisture from the Atlantic. Strong northeasterly winds at the leading edge of the storm draw it up the east coast.

Arctic high-pressure system — (clockwise winds). As the strong northeasterly winds pull the storm up the east coast, it meets with cold Arctic air blowing down from Canada. When the two systems collide, the moisture and cold air produce a mix of precipitation.
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whoa! at 66 hours we are a lot more West than the 06Z run! like 3-4 degrees more west
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Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:


Thats pretty scary, even for me...and I am a weather enthusiast. But I live on the shore area very close to that center of circulation...with a full moon and a 930 MB low, the tidal impacts could be disastrous.

THis would be a scenario worse than any storm I can remember, even worse than the 1962 & 1992 benchmark Nor'easters.



Do you have relative or friend's house you can crash in?

But anyways, before you go. Put all your belongings in the highest places possible. Seal your door and windows, and make your house as watertight as you can.

This should help to reduce water damage.

I know it seems like a lot of work, but would you rather pay some carpanter or cleanup crew 9000+ dollars to redo your floor and spend even more money replacing your TV and stuff?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Nigel,

Wishing you and yours (and everyone else in Sandy's path) all the best. Take care of yourselves over there!

Lindy
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Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
Even if we correct for the possible over-count of approximately two named storms per year during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 hurricane seasons, compared to the pre-satellite era, there is nothing in the HURDAT data base that compares to the type of activity we've seen the past three years. One likely contributor to the unusual string of active years is the fact hurricane season has gotten longer, perhaps due to warming ocean temperatures. I discussed in a 2008 blog post that Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".
That certainly sounds logical and reasonable. Consider what an odd season this has been already:

--As many storms formed in either May or June as did during September;
--October has seen five storms form, two-and-a-half times the number that did during September;
--Eight storms formed in August, tying the record for most during that month;
--September's Nadine was one of the longest-lived Atlantic storms on record;
--This year's seven Cat 1 hurricanes matches the same number seen in 2005;
--There's been but one major hurricane this year

...and so on. I reckon we'll see whether the Atlantic can spin out one more storm after this date, which happened in both 1995 and 2011 (and even lowly 2009). (2010 saw two more storms form after this date.)

Anyway, this: over the past ten seasons (2003-2012), there have been 182 total Atlantic cyclones tracked by the NHC. The breakdown by each cyclone's highest intensity:

-3 subtropical storms (average 0.3 per year)
-17 tropical depressions (1.7 per year)
-83 tropical storms (8.3 per year)
-79 hurricanes (7.9 per year), including:
---31 Cat 1s (3.1 per year)
---11 Cat 2s (1.1 per year)
---15 Cat 3s (1.5 per year)
---14 Cat 4s (1.4 per year)
---8 Cat 5s (0.8 per year)
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971.3 mb
(~ 28.68 inHg)
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971MB now!!!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Jamaica wont help a hurricane.
Jamaica is a serial hurricane-killer


In fact we have hurricane force shields that usually deflect them. They seem to need some servicing now
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just for reference..............
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Quoting TXCWC:
Wake up to find more track models coming into agreement with Euro. I believe this will continue to be the theme of the day. I also see GFDL now showing a bombed out 930'smb storm hitting the mid-atlantic/ne as well. Which may be close to eventual reality considering it is already at 972 and is not really forecasted to bomb out until much latter in the forecast period...looking like Euro will be more correct than not to me.

GFDL 06 run


Thats pretty scary, even for me...and I am a weather enthusiast. But I live on the shore area very close to that center of circulation...with a full moon and a 930 MB low, the tidal impacts could be disastrous.

THis would be a scenario worse than any storm I can remember, even worse than the 1962 & 1992 benchmark Nor'easters.

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54 hours out 12zGFS is in a pretty much identical place as 06z
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NAEFS model-144 hours..Major storm in the Northeast......
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


ECMWF still has it going into the NE, and GFS is shifting west with every run.

But look on the bright side, if it hits,it will give Obama and Romney something reasonable to argue about!
LOL
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tropical storm conditions possible,south florida too...BISCAYNE BAY-
1043 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.REST OF TODAY...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 19 TO 24 KNOTS. BAY WATERS
ROUGH IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS
22 TO 27 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. BAY WATERS ROUGH
IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.THURSDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS 27 TO 32 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KNOTS. BAY WATERS
ROUGH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS.
BAY WATERS ROUGH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS
29 TO 34 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. BAY WATERS ROUGH
IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 26 TO 31 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO
45 KNOTS IN THE EVENING. BAY WATERS ROUGH IN EXPOSED AREAS.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS. BAY WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 18 TO 23 KNOTS. BAY WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP.
.SUNDAY...NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. BAY WATERS A
LIGHT CHOP.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


You stay safe over there Mon.

Will do.
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The Eye is coming out now!
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Ok, this was posted on the previous blog at a time at which many were not awake yet, I think this was a fascinating read, and I appreciate how well this blogger managed to simplify it without making us feel stupid. This is about the possibility of the EURO's Eastern US scenario.

Link

It explains just why it's perfectly plausible.
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see now..tropical storm conditions Possible east coast florida....................COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1120 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

ATLC COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM

AMZ552-242230-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
1120 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET
WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD 8 SECONDS. CHOPPY ON THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FEET WITH A
DOMINANT PERIOD 8 SECONDS. ROUGH ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 11 FEET WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD
8 SECONDS. VERY ROUGH ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST
WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. SEAS 13 TO 16 FEET. EXTREMELY ROUGH ON THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS 30 TO
35 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS. SEAS 18 TO 21 FEET. EXTREMELY ROUGH ON THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 13 TO 15
FEET. ROUGH ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
.SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 11 TO 13 FEET.
CHOPPY ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

$$
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27HR GFS 12Z
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
452 AM PDT WED OCT 24 2012



WEATHER ITEM OF NOTE...IT MAY BE OUTSIDE OF THE BAY AREA...BUT A
MAJOR WEATHER FOCUS NATIONWIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE TRACK
OF TS SANDY AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
COULD NOT BE ANY MORE DIFFERENT. FOR EXAMPLE...ONE MODEL HAS TS
MOVE UP THE COAST AND TRACK WELL NE OF THE COASTLINE THANKS TO A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM. ON THE
FLIP SIDE...ANOTHER MODEL HAS A MUCH SLOWER COLD FRONT AND DRIVES
THE REMNANTS OF SANDY NW RIGHT INTO PA/NY WITH SOME RATHER
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOW SFC PRESSURE VALUES.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Boy sure hope that's not an eye in the making...



That IS an eye
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GFS still has it off the coast..............
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Quoting nigel20:
108 people now in shelters
Link


You stay safe over there Mon.
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Quoting TXCWC:
Wake up to find more track models coming into agreement with Euro. I believe this will continue to be the theme of the day. I also see GFDL now showing a bombed out 930'smb storm hitting the mid-atlantic/ne as well. Which may be close to eventual reality considering it is already at 972 and is not really forecasted to bomb out until much latter in the forecast period...looking like Euro will be more correct than not to me.

GFDL 06 run




i wounder if the E coast want too give some of that too us
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


hurricane hurter, ivan and dean barely tracked over jamaica, gustav hit jamaica earlier on, and gilbert im not sure about.
Gilbert was a direct hit and caused massive amounts of damage with loss of life BUT he continued west .......Gilbert was classified as a major hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph .On September 12, the hurricane made landfall on the eastern coast of Jamaica at this intensity.Gilbert strengthened rapidly after emerging from the coast of Jamaica. As the hurricane brushed the Cayman Islands, a reporting station on Grand Cayman recorded a wind gust of 156 mph (252 km/h) as the storm passed just to the southeast on September 13.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Jamaica live stream

Link
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173. TXCWC
Wake up to find more track models coming into agreement with Euro. I believe this will continue to be the theme of the day. I also see GFDL now showing a bombed out 930'smb storm hitting the mid-atlantic/ne as well. Which may be close to eventual reality considering it is already at 972 and is not really forecasted to bomb out until much latter in the forecast period...looking like Euro will be more correct than not to me.

GFDL 06 run
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.