Hurricane Sandy pounding Jamaica, may hit U.S. this weekend; TS Tony forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

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Hurricane warnings are flying for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, as an intensifying Hurricane Sandy plows north-northeast at 13 mph towards landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds of hurricane strength--75 to 80 mph--in the storm's northeast quadrant near 9:25 am EDT. Sandy's pressure at the time of the 9:28 am center fix was 973 mb, and the temperature in the eye had warmed 2°C since the 7:48 am fix, a sign of strengthening. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 2.12" of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. Winds in Jamaica have been below 20 mph as of 10 am EDT, but will start to rise quickly in the next few hours. The Hurricane Hunters found a large 55 mile-diameter eye that was open to the WNW this morning, and it is likely that Kingston will receive high winds of 55 - 65 mph from the western eyewall, which will cause considerable damage to Jamaica's capital. The eastern tip of Jamaica will likely see the eye pass overhead, and will receive the strongest winds. The eye is beginning to appear on visible satellite loops, and Sandy is showing an increasing degree of organization as it closes in on Jamaica. Sandy is the tenth hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season, which is now tied for eighth place for most hurricanes in a year since record keeping began in 1851.


Figure 1. Morning microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 8:45 am EDT. The large 55-mile diameter eye was just south of Jamaica. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Near-term forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the moderate range and ocean temperatures will be a warm 28°C through Thursday morning, which will favor intensification. However, Sandy doesn't have much time left over water before it encounters the high mountains of Jamaica this afternoon, which should interrupt the intensification process. The strongest Sandy is likely to be at landfall in Jamaica is a 90 mph Category 1 hurricanes. After encountering Jamaica, Sandy won't have time to re-organize much before making landfall in Eastern Cuba near 10 pm EDT tonight, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph, and it will be difficult for the storm to regain all of that lost strength in the face of the high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. I expect that Sandy will be a 60 - 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday, October 23, 2012. At the time, Sandy had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The Wednesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy's path after Friday, with a minority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, and the majority now predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.

When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy's rains won't affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm - 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I'll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tony.

Tropical Storm Tony forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Tony formed Tuesday night in the middle Atlantic, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this very busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Tony has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, but is battling dry air , wind shear, and ocean temperatures that have fallen below 26°C. Tony will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Thursday night.

Tony's place in history
Tony is the Nineteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for third busiest Atlantic season since the HURDAT historical data base began in 1851. With five more weeks left before the November 30 end of hurricane season, 2012 is likely to move into second place for most named storms before the year is out, as all six prior Atlantic hurricane seasons with nineteen or more named storms have had at least one named storm form after October 24. Here, then, is a list of the seven busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
2012 (19 named storms)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)

It's pretty remarkable that we've now had three straight years with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic. But how many of these storms might not have been counted in the pre-satellite era (before 1960)? Here's a list of weak and short-lived storms from 2010 - 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era:

2012:
Tropical Storm Joyce
Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Tony

2011:
Tropical Storm Jose
Tropical Storm Franklin

2010:
Tropical Storm Gaston

Even if we correct for the possible over-count of approximately two named storms per year during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 hurricane seasons, compared to the pre-satellite era, there is nothing in the HURDAT data base that compares to the type of activity we've seen the past three years. One likely contributor to the unusual string of active years is the fact hurricane season has gotten longer, perhaps due to warming ocean temperatures. I discussed in a 2008 blog post that Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Jeff Masters

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Sandy please wobble
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
Quoting wpb:
with most of the models results showing a strong system in new england. local officals should start opening the residents eyes for this increasing posability


I corrected your awkwardly hilarious typo there.

Everyone in Sandy's path... I hope you're safe and well-prepared for a very intense and well-organized system. If the super-storm scenario for the eastern seaboard pans out... well, I live in Ottawa, ON, and it looks as though there are runs that want me to experience that as well.
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A view of the sea in Kingston (Jamaica Gleaner)
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7463
417. wpb
with most of the models resluts showing a strong system in new england. local officals should start opening the residents eyes for this increasing posability
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
Link
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Where do you get that??
which..the winds?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
Wouldn't you think there will be a shift of the cone at 2pm back west, or they will need more runs?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
Quoting Grothar:
geez,just look at that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
Where do you get that??
Quoting LargoFl:
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
Quoting Grothar:


Looks as if the center is going to edge around the eastern tip of Jamaica.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Only cam I could find is on the west side of Jamaica Link

Anyone know of others?


Kingston
http://www.opentopia.com/webcam/8122?viewmode=ref reshingstill
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
BUT.... I hope november will bring us interesting weather again.
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wonder what is stopping sandy from just plowing into florida?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
Fascinating storm, there maybe more than a few weather papers written on this one. Of concern to me is the little loop d loop the storm appears to do in the northern Bahamas may be a close call for WPB again. Boy have they been unlucky the last 10yrs.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
CMC for SE FL big Rain
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
Quoting cwf1069:
Thank you Taz. That should be 3.00 in the afternoon?



not sure
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Quoting CloudGatherer:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 28
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 16:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Location: 46 miles (73 km) to the S (178°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the E (86°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 174° at 84kts (From the S at ~ 96.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the E (83°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 973mb (28.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:41:30Z


-----

Sandy's back down where she was at 9:23am this morning.


The vortex message has been showing slightly higher pressures than what the NHC has actually been going with all morning, that's actually a drop from the last vortex.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. Been busy with Pretenders duties for Fantasy Fest here so I am behind reading and trying to catch up. I couldn't pass up this comment. I don't know what kind of house you live in, but when Wilma flooded my mother's concrete block, terrazo floored home, it cost 25,000.00 just to dry it out and tear out the drywall 4 ft up. Of course, the house was approximately 2,500 sq. ft. so they probably calculated by the square footage. I think after the fact the people decided I got the better deal since they had to cut through dade county pine and basically had to keep replacing their blades. Yes, I would agree. Seal around your doors, outdoor spigots. If you have a floor drain on the ground floor, be sure to purchase a plug to seal that. Sometimes the high water gets pushed into the sewers and comes up there first.
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. Been busy with Pretenders duties for Fantasy Fest here so I am behind reading and trying to catch up. I couldn't pass up this comment. I don't know what kind of house you live in, but when Wilma flooded my mother's concrete block, terrazo floored home, it cost 25,000.00 just to dry it out and tear out the drywall 4 ft up. Of course, the house was approximately 2,500 sq. ft. so they probably calculated by the square footage. I think after the fact the people decided I got the better deal since they had to cut through dade county pine and basically had to keep replacing their blades. Yes, I would agree. Seal around your doors, outdoor spigots. If you have a floor drain on the ground floor, be sure to purchase a plug to seal that. Sometimes the high water gets pushed into the sewers and comes up there first.


I actually dont live in an area that gets hurricanes.

Its just that is what one of my relatives in Florida does.
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A bit of cautious talk here in Nova Scotia about the possibility of another Juan. By the looks of the models I would say we are gonna get smashed!
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E Carib + NW Carib = DRY. Weather is awesome though... Clear blue sky AND ABOVE ALL NO DUST. I HATE THE SAL.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow CMC for SE FL big Rain
yes nam has been saying that also..we'll see, they are changing the forecast at every update..well we'll see come thurs night or so
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
398. wpb
with most of the models resluts showing a strong system in new england. local officals should start opening the residents eyes for this increasing posability
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
Quoting weatherskink:
Plans for Friday :

Drive to Sebastian Inlet from Boca with my 7'5" Greg Knoll board which I have named "Enterprise" (you can land aircraft on it) .

Park and walk to beach struggling with said board which is trying to rip itself from my grasp .

Observe wind blown waves that remind me of staring at a front loading washing machine . Decide that yeah , I'll see if I can get a few rides .

Paddle out , with every minute spent wondering why I bothered .

Catch a wave , a sloppy ride that confirms that it was a waste of time . Ride slop to shore , only to discover that I'm in Ft Lauderdale . Utter expletive .
dont..huge rip currents are forcasted, stay OUT of the water
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
Wow CMC for SE FL big Rain
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BEACHES AND ATLANTIC WATERS FROM BREVARD TO
MARTIN COUNTY ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED PATH...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AND ALSO IN SQUALLS NEAR THE COAST.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

LARGE AND BATTERING SURF WILL MAKE THE OCEAN HAZARDOUS FOR ANYONE
TO ENTER. MODERATE BEACH AND SOME DUNE EROSION IS ALSO EXPECTED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SANDY APPROACHES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BY
THIS TIME.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
Plans for Friday :

Drive to Sebastian Inlet from Boca with my 7'5" Greg Knoll board which I have named "Enterprise" (you can land aircraft on it) .

Park and walk to beach struggling with said board which is trying to rip itself from my grasp .

Observe wind blown waves that remind me of staring at a front loading washing machine . Decide that yeah , I'll see if I can get a few rides .

Paddle out , with every minute spent wondering why I bothered .

Catch a wave , a sloppy ride that confirms that it was a waste of time . Ride slop to shore , only to discover that I'm in Ft Lauderdale . Utter expletive .
Member Since: September 3, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 76
Only cam I could find is on the west side of Jamaica Link

Anyone know of others?
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Link

Carrabiean visible satallite
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
...man I wish The Weather Channel would stop making such useless graphics :(
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Thank you Taz. That should be 3.00 in the afternoon?
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Deja vu?
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FLZ168-172-173-250030-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
1223 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
VERY SMALL. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE SANDY PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THAT COULD
INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR WIND ADVISORIES
LATE TODAY OR EARLY ON THURSDAY. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR DAMAGE, INCLUDING SNAPPED TREE BRANCHES,
UPROOTING OF SMALL OR WEAK TREES AND DOWNED POWER LINES RESULTING
IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Do you have relative or friend's house you can crash in?

But anyways, before you go. Put all your belongings in the highest places possible. Seal your door and windows, and make your house as watertight as you can.

This should help to reduce water damage.

I know it seems like a lot of work, but would you rather pay some carpanter or cleanup crew 9000+ dollars to redo your floor and spend even more money replacing your TV and stuff?
Good afternoon all. Been busy with Pretenders duties for Fantasy Fest here so I am behind reading and trying to catch up. I couldn't pass up this comment. I don't know what kind of house you live in, but when Wilma flooded my mother's concrete block, terrazo floored home, it cost 25,000.00 just to dry it out and tear out the drywall 4 ft up. Of course, the house was approximately 2,500 sq. ft. so they probably calculated by the square footage. I think after the fact the people decided I got the better deal since they had to cut through dade county pine and basically had to keep replacing their blades. Yes, I would agree. Seal around your doors, outdoor spigots. If you have a floor drain on the ground floor, be sure to purchase a plug to seal that. Sometimes the high water gets pushed into the sewers and comes up there first.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 28
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 16:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Location: 46 miles (73 km) to the S (178°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the E (86°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 174° at 84kts (From the S at ~ 96.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the E (83°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 973mb (28.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:41:30Z


-----

Sandy's back down where she was at 9:23am this morning.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 454
Quoting Undertaker:
It is raining heavily in Montego Bay with very gusty winds. a lot of trees are down and the worst is still nothere.

I can't believe it's that bad in Montego Bay, we've not seen any strong winds as yet here in Kingston.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7463
CMC is trending to EURO also
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Where in Wisconsin are you Funnel? I used to live in the Milwaukee County area. Moved to Florida in 1982


Wausau, but snow or not, this thing is going to bring an arctic blast if the models are right.
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12z CMC:

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Quoting cwf1069:
At what time its the next flight?



000
NOUS42 KNHC 241513
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 24 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-158

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE 2SANDY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 26/0000Z A. 26/0000Z,0600Z
B. NOAA2 0718A SANDY B. AFXXX 0818A SANDY
C. 25/2000Z C. 25/2015Z
D. 24.4N 76.4WW D. 24.4N 76.4W
E. 25/2200Z TO 26/0200Z E. 25/2330Z TO 26/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 26/1200Z A. 26/1200Z,1800Z
B. NOAA2 0918A SANDY B. AFXXX 1018A SANDY
C. 26/0800Z C. 26/0815Z
D. 26.3N 76.7W D. 26.3N 76.7W
E. 26/1000Z TO 26/1400Z E. 26/1130Z TO 26/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. ANOTHER P-3 FLIGHT
AT 26/2000Z.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
Quoting Undertaker:
It is raining heavily in Montego Bay with very gusty winds. a lot of trees are down and the worst is still nothere.
stay safe down there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
Thank God I still have power. A lot of places are without power at this time.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Is that an eye feature or a dry air slot? I'd lean toward an eye feature. Looks like the 22 mb drop in the last 24 hours is finally appearing on the satellite presentation. Very potent storm developing...


It's an eye.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
GFS at 60 hours..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33365
It is raining heavily in Montego Bay with very gusty winds. a lot of trees are down and the worst is still nothere.
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373. JRRP
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At what time its the next flight?
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I'm trying to shed light on Kirk's little brother, who's trying to emulate him:

Link

EDIT: That's an image.
2nd EDIT: And it's forbidden. Ugh.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.