Sandy intensifying, headed towards Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on October 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Sandy is on the move northwards towards Jamaica, and is slowly intensifying. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds near 50 mph in the storm's northeast quadrant at 9 am EDT. The latest center fix, taken at 10:20 am EDT, found that Sandy's pressure had fallen 2 mb since early this morning, to 995 mb. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.82" of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. and Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in an unusually moist environment with relative humidities above 80%, and is experiencing light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms have increased in areal extent, intensity, and organization this morning, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Sandy a potential threat to New England
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Thursday morning. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicted a 62% chance that Sandy's winds would increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. However, the Hurricane Hunters found this morning that the center at 5,000 feet was displaced 7 miles from the surface center, and there was no indication that Sandy was building an eyewall, so I expect that the earliest Sandy could become a hurricane is Wednesday morning. The 5 am EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 49% chance that Sandy would be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday and the storm will have to cross the rugged terrain of Cuba, which should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph. By Friday, Sandy should be over warm waters in the Central Bahamas, but only modest re-intensification by 10 - 20 mph should occur, due to high wind shear. At that point, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast. The trough may steer Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models. However, an alternative solution, shown by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for the trough to inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits New England early next week with a central pressure of 948 mb and winds near hurricane-force. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are off by a full day in their predictions of when the storm would arrive, with the 06Z NOGAPS model predicting Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Sunday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model forecast predicts that Sandy will arrive in New England on Monday night. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. The Tuesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy's path after Friday, with the majority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, but a substantial number predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Nineteen.

Tropical Depression Nineteen in the middle Atlantic
There has been little change to Tropical Depression Nineteen since it formed Monday in the middle Atlantic. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system on its west side is slowing development. TD 19 is moving north-northeast at 15 mph, and has moved over waters that are 27°C, a full degree cooler what the storm had to work with on Monday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, but is forecast to increase to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, on Wednesday. Ocean temperatures will drop below 26°C on Wednesday, so TD 19 has until Wednesday morning to get its act together and develop into Tropical Storm Tony. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Friday.


Video 1. Impressive weather video of the week: Baseball-sized hail splashing into a swimming pool during a hailstorm in South Africa on Saturday, October 20, 2012. The action gets interesting at about 1 minute into the video.

Tonight (October 23), PBS Frontline airs "Climate of Doubt", which examines the politics of climate change, and how a once generally accepted fact--that humans have contributed to, if not caused, global warming--has been dismissed by many politicians. It's on at 10 pm here in Michigan, but times may vary, depending upon the station.

Jeff Masters

dark clouds (nigel20)
dark clouds

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I honestly have no idea why 19L has not been declared a tropical storm yet. It has likely been a tropical storm for 12-18 hours now.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33449
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR COASTAL STORM WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...HIGH WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST. THE STORM MAY VERY WELL JUST MOVE OUT TO SEA...AND HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.

AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SINCE SANDY IS
STILL IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE STILL
AROUND A WEEK AWAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON SANDY...AND MONITOR THE LATEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$$
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TROPICAL UPDATE
____________________________

SANDY



The little boxes should say:
PM Fri 80 MPH
AM Sat 70 MPH

I put in intensities with some RI
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Hi. Sandy achieved a place in regular google news (US) without specific search. So I just found this, though it's nothing really very new:

NASA's hot tower research confirmed again with Tropical Storm Sandy
Posted On: October 23, 2012 - 9:00pm
The eighteenth tropical depression only took six hours to strengthen into Tropical Storm Sandy, confirming NASA research that sighting of hot towers leads to intensification. Sandy may further intensify into a hurricane and watches and warnings have been posted in the Caribbean Sea. On Oct. 23, a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning were in effect for Jamaica, and a tropical storm watch was in effect for Haiti.
More in Science Codex
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all. It looks like I will be needing to write a blog sometime tonight.... :o/



This is a worst-case track for the north coast of New Providence, in that it brings onshore winds for most of the storm's passage, which lends itself to flooding along the narrow strip between the shore and the low hills which run the length of the northern coast. OTOH, it at least potentially reduces the storm surge threat along the southern coastline, where there are many residential communities, and where the topography is considerably flatter and quite prone to flooding even in heavy thunderstorms.

But we shall see.



I live on the northern coast :s
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634. beell
TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

This would be "under" or south of the trough base.

Although this kind of talk is off-topic.
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we have posters from the keys here dont we?.....................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST
SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OFFSHORE OF THE UPPER KEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY EXPANDS FARTHER TO THE
WEST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$
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632. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
5:00 AM PhST, October 24 2012
==============================

"OFEL" has intensified into a tropical storm and threatens Caraga Region and Visayas

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel (SON-TINH) [997 hPa] located at 9.0°N 127.3°E or 90 km East of Tandag, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #2
-------------------

Visayas Region
=============
1. Southern Leyte

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Visayas Region
=============
1. Samar Provinces
2. Leyte
3. Biliran Island
4. Bohol
5. Cebu
6. Camotes Island
7. Negros Provinces
8. Siquijor Island

Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Rest of Agusan Del Sur
2. Northern Bukidnon
3. Misamis Oriental

Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal (PSWS) #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Residents in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern Seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to the combined effect of the Tropical Storm "Ofel"and the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 54 Comments: 48514
Afternoon all. It looks like I will be needing to write a blog sometime tonight.... :o/



This is a worst-case track for the north coast of New Providence, in that it brings onshore winds for most of the storm's passage, which lends itself to flooding along the narrow strip between the shore and the low hills which run the length of the northern coast. OTOH, it at least potentially reduces the storm surge threat along the southern coastline, where there are many residential communities, and where the topography is considerably flatter and quite prone to flooding even in heavy thunderstorms.

But we shall see.

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The TCHP is still pretty high to the S and SE of Jamaica
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8700
TROPICAL STORM SANDY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
536 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND
THE REEF SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINERS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
OF MONROE COUNTY AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ONLY FOR FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BEYOND THE REEF SOUTHEAST OF THE
UPPER KEYS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3N...LONGITUDE 77.6W. THIS WAS ABOUT 760 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FL...OR ABOUT 780 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR
20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO LAND AREAS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THOSE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER PLAN AND BECOME READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR
A WARNING IS LATER ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE INTERESTS
ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR
CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM
SANDY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN KEY WEST SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT
DETAILS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM SANDY AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON THE FLORIDA KEYS.
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With respect to Florida, the 12z and 18z are pretty much identical (no major shift east or west).
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Sandy is going over Jamaica, isn't that an area of very high THC content?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11147
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Actually, that's a fair comparison hurricanehunter27. The difference is though, Wilma was heading west, towards very high TCHP, this one is heading north.
Yes I was just comparing the aesthetics of Wilma and Sandy nothing more!
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AMZ013-240930-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN-
506 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS.
.WED...BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...
BECOMING E 40 TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT...BUILDING TO 14 FT
LATE. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
NUMEROUS TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...E TO SE WINDS 45 TO 70 KT
...BECOMING SW TO W 35 TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT...SUBSIDING
TO 9 FT LATE. ELSEWHERE...N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
NUMEROUS TSTMS.
.THU...BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...SW TO W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT...
BECOMING W 20 TO 25 KT LATE. ELSEWHERE...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.FRI...NW TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...NW TO N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

$$
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Actually, that's a fair comparison hurricanehunter27. The difference is though, Wilma was heading west, towards very high TCHP, this one is heading north.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24684
Tropical Storm Warning
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



AMZ101-240930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
506 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012


.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES MOVE E OFF CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
THU AND MAINTAIN STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SW PORTIONS AS
TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 14.3N 77.6W AT 5 PM
EDT DRIFTS N-NE AND INTENSIFIES TO HURRICANE THROUGH WED. SANDY
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA WED NIGHT AND EMERGE ALONG N
COAST OF CUBA AS TROPICAL STORM EARLY THU...REACH 26.3N 76.7W FRI
...THEN TURN NE AND REACH 29.5N 73.5W SAT...THEN NEAR 32.0N 69.0W
SUN AS NON TROPICAL STORM.

$$
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Just making comparisons no predictions....please don't hurt me. Really that is all I am doing.


I know -- There are huge differences though. Especially the upper atmospheric ones.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11147
new GFS at 48 hours.....................
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619. redux
How does the NAO impact the precipitation type? is it a gimme that in fall/winter a strong negative NAO would lead to colder temperatures in the Eastern CONUS?

[gif]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip /CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif[/gif]
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NAEFS model agree's with the euro..144 hours a monster storm in the northeast..................
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Not really the convection over the area just formed in that sat frame. It was the start of the CDO.


Sat frame a few before: (3-4 frames back to be exact)

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Except one has a well-defined eyewall and one has a well-defined inner core. Big difference there.
Not really the convection over the area just formed in that sat frame. It was the start of the CDO.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I was making comparisons on how similar Sandy and (Please don't hurt me) Wilma look yesterday and they still look very similar.

Sandy:


Wilma:


Except one has a well-defined eyewall and one has a well-defined inner core. Big difference there.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33449
..miami not out of the woods just yet..NAM at 84 hours
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Quoting Dakster:
MH27 - quit dropping the W-bomb...

Just making comparisons no predictions....please don't hurt me. Really that is all I am doing.
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In case you were wondering how this would look on satellite

The 12z Euro

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MH27 - quit dropping the W-bomb...

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11147
Quoting Dakster:
THey will probably upgrade TD19 into a TS post-season if they miss it now. Not all that important as it isn't threatening land at the moment.

Hopefully it doesn't do a loop de loop back into CONUS.
But its not fair and you know it.I really want a ascat or oscat to confirm is a tropical storm.Do you know its someone going to pass near the storm before the next advisory is issue.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Reading up to catch up. Should Sandy head towards NY/CONN, etc., wouldn't the waters be too cold now for her to still be a hurricane?
wont be a hurricane, but a very strong nor'easter with winds FAR away from the center
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Just watched my local weather guy, dennis phillips, now i trust him alot with what he says and..he just mentioned the term.."storm of the century possible" for the northeast IF..the euro..the most dependable model..pans out, this monster system crashes into the northeast coast somewhere north of NYC and possibly boston...IF this happens OMG..with an extratropical storm..instead of the winds being near the center..the winds spread out FAR away from the center..unlike a pure tropical system..if it does hit say boston..the whole northeast will feel it..omg...prayers the storm doesnt go into the northeast..not with the economy being so bad as it is right now.......
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Reading up to catch up. Should Sandy head towards NY/CONN, etc., wouldn't the waters be too cold now for her to still be a hurricane?

It'd become a Nor'Easter.... and HUGE one at that
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3906
I was making comparisons on how similar Sandy and (Please don't hurt me) Wilma look yesterday and they still look very similar.

Sandy:


Wilma:

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THey will probably upgrade TD19 into a TS post-season if they miss it now. Not all that important as it isn't threatening land at the moment.

Hopefully it doesn't do a loop de loop back into CONUS.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11147
TD 19 looks Tonyish
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3906
Reading up to catch up. Should Sandy head towards NY/CONN, etc., wouldn't the waters be too cold now for her to still be a hurricane?
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my SFO adf is talking about Sandy




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
136 PM PDT TUE OCT 23 2012


THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY ON HOW
THE MODELS TREAT THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...WHICH WOULD BE WHAT WAS
HURRICANE SANDY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONG OMEGA BLOCK IN THE
EASTERN US AND THE ATLANTIC WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER
LONG ISLAND...A STRONG RIDGE BY LABRADOR...AND ANOTHER STRONG LOW
IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE GFS TAKES THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WELL
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION DRIVES THE JET STREAM
FURTHER SOUTH WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT FROM NEXT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WITH RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT ENDING WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A RIDGE FORMS OVER THE WEST COAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. BASICALLY...THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK IS IN FLUX.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115610
How can they do not upgrade td nineteen into Tony its looking way better the NHC really have me angry right now.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
-
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3906
So, both TD 19 and Sandy improve dramatically in structure, it makes it hard for me to believe that neither have changed on bit in intensity and winds. The only way I can legitimize this is that the NHC is still waiting for the mission results into Sandy (and I hope it's not because of the 'trying not to cause panic' excuse, it's deplorable, and it sets up for future Isaac-like disasters). For TD 19, it could be that they don't want to keep naming storms and making themselves look worse in the eyes of the media because each named storm beyond their prediction proves them wrong a little more. But, 19 is persisting still, and if it becomes an unnamed storm in the post-season, I'll just facepalm and be annoyed. Have the T-#s and presentation not been in support of TS status for the better part of the day?



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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Thrawst! I think they should.


I know . :(

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


where do you see that
I saw it on TWC when they were on at the 4:50 pm update
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3906
If this should hit the northeast as a nor'easter would TWC refer to it as Athena or would it remain Sandy since she already has a name?
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Quoting Thrawst:
Do you all believe they should close down schools in Nassau Bahamas for Thursday and Friday? Anyone? I believe they should... not because I want them to (i do), but rather who goes to school in a hurricane?

Hey Thrawst! I think they should.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8700
Quoting ncstorm:


so is the blue shaded area the ensembles? I always have trouble reading these maps..I just like the squiqqly line maps that point to a location..LOL

Those are the 500 millibar heights. The ensemble map he posted is unlike the ones you post which show where each ensemble member places the storm. Allan Huffman's site takes the average of the position and intensity of the low within each ensemble member and places it in the most accurate spot possible.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33449
536 biff4ugo: I don't know if you want to call it a twin of Sandy, and companion of Sandy, or a large tumorous growth on a rain band of Sandy. I'll call it Larry.
If Larry makes it around to the west side of Sandy, the track of the center of rotation could miss Florida, But Larry could pack a wallop.
Most forecasts show the companion low X (Larry) hanging of the East or NE side of Sandy.


That's SpongeBob. Everybody knows that it's SpongeBob and Sandy.
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I just came home,and was studying all the models the complete 12Z suite,in my opinion this system will come closer to the South East coast of the USA than the official track shows,if you look closely you can see a jog small but a jog (any jog with this huge system can make a big diference for the South East coast of the USA.We will probably see Tropical storm watch and eventually warning for the South East of the USA and probably all up the coast of Florida.
The next models suite run will be very interesting!! to see if this trend continues.
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591. TXCWC
Quoting ncstorm:


so is the blue shaded area the ensembles? I always have trouble reading these maps..I just like the squiqqly line maps that point to a location..LOL


Both show Sandy ( fully tropical or not I am not sure )going directly over Long Island and/or Conneticut
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Do you all believe they should close down schools in Nassau Bahamas for Thursday and Friday? Anyone? I believe they should... not because I want them to (i do), but rather who goes to school in a hurricane?
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Quoting EricSFL:

Why should Puerto Rico be "aware"?


North/South feeder band training over PR possible as Sandy moves north over Cuba
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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