Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Late afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history
Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 19 taken at 12:30 pm EDT October 22, 2012. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Nineteen forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Nineteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Tony by early Tuesday morning. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it formed underneath is slowing development. TD 19 is over warm waters of 28°C, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning, which should allow TD 19 to develop into Tropical Storm Tony over the next day. On Wednesday, TD 19 is expected to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which should prevent further strengthening. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

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366. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:43 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 012 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54266
365. KoritheMan
3:43 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Hey I thought everyone had decided long ago that we were going to install deep-water pumps to pump up cool water and stop all this madness?


Wasn't that cyclonebuster's idea? He called them "tunnels", I believe.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20769
364. AussieStorm
3:43 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Give the kid a break Aussie. I learned Spanish in Norway. :)

At least those two countries, Spain and Norway, didn't hate each other, like Japan and China. They are fighting over islands in the South China Sea a long with Vietnam and the Philippines.
They had a Mexican stand-off there a few months back. Luckily it didn't escalate.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
363. wxchaser97
3:43 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Just like in the ALCS, it is a pop fly that ends the game. The rain is really coming down but they got it over with.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7947
362. Barefootontherocks
3:42 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
The Giants win the pennant. The Giants win the pennant. The Giants win the pennant!

And oh, it's still raining.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18710
361. HurrikanEB
3:41 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Am I correct in recalling that you can't have a "subtropical hurricane?" But you can have a tropical hurricane, and an extratropical storm of hurricane strength?

If so, why not a subtropical hurricane..
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1337
360. wxchaser97
3:41 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
What's this, a tropical cyclone forming south of 20N? Are we still in 2012?

Wait, it is still 2012? It could become a hurricane at a lower altitude as well, a first this year.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7947
359. SunriseSteeda
3:41 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting LostTomorrows:


It might even become the lowest-latitude hurricane of 2012. Wouldn't that be something.


Hey I thought everyone had decided long ago that we were going to install deep-water pumps to pump up cool water and stop all this madness?
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
358. KoritheMan
3:41 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting LostTomorrows:


It might even become the lowest-latitude hurricane of 2012. Wouldn't that be something.


I have to wonder if Sandy will break the one major hurricane curse.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20769
357. Grothar
3:40 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting ExumaMET:
Well this looks like a wonderful setup for those of us in the central bahamas

I HATE late-season storms.


Looks like you guys are in for a lot of rain and wind.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
356. AussieStorm
3:40 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Oh no, but my brain was messed up anyway. I took 3rd year Spanish and 1st year Japanese the spring semester at FAU and then moved to China for a semester in Beijing at Tsinghua. Needless to say much of what I learned in spring was gone by time I got back.

All I learned in China was xie xie ni, ni hao ma, wo ai ni, and how to point at menus.

Many of my new friends in Beijing did not know very much at all about tropical cyclones and damned near freaked when they saw my favorite plywood-through-a-palm-tree picture.

cool. I have been to the Philippines 4 times and when I go there, I teach them about Typhoons and even about volcano's and earthquakes.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
355. LostTomorrows
3:39 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
What's this, a tropical cyclone forming south of 20N? Are we still in 2012?


It might even become the lowest-latitude hurricane of 2012. Wouldn't that be something.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 601
354. SunriseSteeda
3:38 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Give the kid a break Aussie. I learned Spanish in Norway. :)


My next study abroad stop is being determined, and will be either Oslo or Stockholm. I intend to speak mostly gibberish. Or perhaps COBOL. By the way, I wish I were still a kid.
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
353. wxchaser97
3:38 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Give the kid a break Aussie. I learned Spanish in Norway. :)

And I learned Norwegian in Spain ;)

Rain is falling hard on the NLCS.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7947
352. Barefootontherocks
3:38 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Pouring rain in San Francisco with one out to go in the top of the ninth. Pretty incredible ending to this National League Championship Series. They're playing in the rain!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18710
351. KoritheMan
3:38 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
What's this, a tropical cyclone forming south of 20N? Are we still in 2012?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20769
Quoting SunriseSteeda:



I don't even try, myself. And I took a class in Japanese (for the Shorinji Kempi group I am in), and even lived in Beijing for a summer the year before last. So much harder than learning Spanish!


It is very difficult to learn to write, but speaking it is not that difficult. I only studied it two years and gave up.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting AussieStorm:

You tired to learn Japanese while in Bejing China? no wonder you found it hard. They are 2 different countries.


Give the kid a break Aussie. I learned Spanish in Norway. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting AussieStorm:

You tired to learn Japanese while in Bejing China? no wonder you found it hard. They are 2 different countries.


Oh no, but my brain was messed up anyway. I took 3rd year Spanish and 1st year Japanese the spring semester at FAU and then moved to China for a semester in Beijing at Tsinghua. Needless to say much of what I learned in spring was gone by time I got back.

All I learned in China was xie xie ni, ni hao ma, wo ai ni, and how to point at menus.

Many of my new friends in Beijing did not know very much at all about tropical cyclones and damned near freaked when they saw my favorite plywood-through-a-palm-tree picture.
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
I guess Jamaica's luck is up with their streak of missing storm hits, maybe they will activate their shields and Sandy will drift around them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Dennis Phillips expects the wind fields to expand as the system crosses over Cuba. He is not discounting the European Model either.


All the models seem to show a large wind field with this one.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ExumaMET:
Well this looks like a wonderful setup for those of us in the central bahamas

I HATE late-season storms.


Gotta start preparing.. both of us :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SunriseSteeda:



I don't even try, myself. And I took a class in Japanese (for the Shorinji Kempi group I am in), and even lived in Beijing for a summer the year before last. So much harder than learning Spanish!

You tired to learn Japanese while in Bejing China? no wonder you found it hard. They are 2 different countries.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
Well this looks like a wonderful setup for those of us in the central bahamas

I HATE late-season storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
%u307E%u3042%u305D%u308C%u306F%u30B5%u30F3%u30C7%u 30A3%u306F%u73FE%u5728%u30CF%u30EA%u30B1%u30FC%uFF FD %uFFFD%uFFFD %u306B%u306A%u308B%u3068%u4E88%u60F3%u3055%u308C%u 3066%u3044%u308B%u3088%u3046%u3067%u3059%u3002


Translation: It seems that it is expected to become hurricane today Well Sandy.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
By the way...29 days until the end of the world...

for anyone believing on it... don't take it personal

Isn't it 12/20/2012? or the 21st of December 2012. That is weird.... North Atlantic [an error occurred while processing this directive]
Anyone know about this?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
Quoting Grothar:
Every model seems to show all the convection on the left side instead of the right.

Dennis Phillips expects the wind fields to expand as the system crosses over Cuba. He is not discounting the European Model either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting Grothar:


Guys, give it up. Your Japanese is terrible and your Mandarin is worse. :)


I don't even try, myself. And I took a class in Japanese (for the Shorinji Kempi group I am in), and even lived in Beijing for a summer the year before last. So much harder than learning Spanish!
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
Every model seems to show all the convection on the left side instead of the right.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
You almost get the feeling reading the NHC discussion that they were expecting some upstream pressure changes by now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Very good. You guys are keeping me up though. Night.


お休みなさい (good night)
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think that was not even Japanese Gro.


No, he responded in Mandarin.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting 954FtLCane:


Ok Sandy is expected to become a hurricane today
Very good. You guys are keeping me up though. Night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think that was not even Japanese Gro.


It is Japanese...well sorta
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting Grothar:


Guys, give it up. Your Japanese is terrible and your Mandarin is worse. :)

私はしないGoogle翻訳のせいにする
Blame it on Google Translate not me.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7947
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
%u307E%u3042%u305D%u308C%u306F%u30B5%u30F3%u30C7%u 30A3%u306F%u73FE%u5728%u30CF%u30EA%u30B1%u30FC%uFF FD %uFFFD%uFFFD %u306B%u306A%u308B%u3068%u4E88%u60F3%u3055%u308C%u 3066%u3044%u308B%u3088%u3046%u3067%u3059%u3002


Ok Sandy is expected to become a hurricane today... translation
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting Grothar:


Guys, give it up. Your Japanese is terrible.
I think that was not even Japanese Gro.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


%u5723%u6D01%u80E1%u626F !!


Guys, give it up. Your Japanese is terrible and your Mandarin is worse. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
As said before please don't hurt me.


I won't hurt you as they do look very similar. Could be an interesting morning tomorrow. Here is the latest sat pic of Sandy.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7947
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


%u5723%u6D01%u80E1%u626F !!
You responded to me in the wrong language. Lol btw night everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
まあそれはサンディは現在ハリケー になると予想されているようです。


圣洁胡扯 !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Very cold cloud tops beginning to form

As said before please don't hurt me.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC bending westward in the Bahamas, expanding the cone westward as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
See the little wave in the lower right corner.

It has some circulation IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wish we had recon going into Sandy about now. She is really developing a lot of features that are found in stronger systems and the NHC used some stronger wording.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7947
Very cold cloud tops beginning to form

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Recon isn't going back to Sandy until Wednesday? Surprising with watches up.


Tomorrow morning 8 AM EDT


FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 23/0730Z
D. 14.2N 78.6W
E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING THAT SANDY SHOULD REMAIN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 5 KT...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT...OVER SSTS OF 29-30C...AND OVER
UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES GREATER THAN 70 UNITS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL
REFLECTS THIS WITH A 64 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INTENSITY
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW FORECASTS
SANDY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES
JAMAICA. AFTER THAT...LAND INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA AND CUBA...
COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 120 HOURS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD INDUCE
TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE ICON...IV15...IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO BROKEN BANDS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND 2.3/33 KT FROM
UW-CIMSS ADT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR
AND OVER WARM WATER...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING SEEMS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AIDS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A
COLD FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER COOLER WATER IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH OR
BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THAT SCENARIO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER
THAT TIME...A FASTER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 23.0N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 24.3N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.3N 45.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 31.2N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0000Z 35.0N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4400
まあそれはサンディは現在ハリケーン になると予想されているようです。
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
(NON-TROPICAL MODEL)
00Z NAM INIT 23 OCT hr 084 TILL 84


next up 00z GFS in about 40 to 45 mins from now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54266

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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