Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Late afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history
Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 19 taken at 12:30 pm EDT October 22, 2012. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Nineteen forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Nineteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Tony by early Tuesday morning. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it formed underneath is slowing development. TD 19 is over warm waters of 28°C, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning, which should allow TD 19 to develop into Tropical Storm Tony over the next day. On Wednesday, TD 19 is expected to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which should prevent further strengthening. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

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416. 7544
looks like she wants to go west some more if she is moving lol
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00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 114 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Quoting ncstorm:


unfortunately this aint looking good for Florida so far..there was hope with the GFS being the outlier and outperforming the Euro but it seems it wants to join along with the Euro it seems..but of course the Euro could flip with the 00z run..


The Euro hasn't been as unreliable as everyone thinks. Yes, the GFS has performed infinitely better, but the former predicted Isaac's final landfall point before the GFS.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21013
At 114hrs it is at 969mb and it probably will go out to sea this run but you never know.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
The 18Z GFS Ensemble models



The early 00Z models

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting Grothar:


Too bad, you would have enjoyed Rio.


Maybe they'll fund a conference trip to Rio. One can hope. Must past qualifying exams in 3 weeks to have such hope for next year (or else I will be in the doghouse).

I want to experience weather outside of Florida and the East Coast!
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
Quoting 954FtLCane:

feel worse for our friends in Jamaica, E Cuba and the Bahamas.... here's to hoping no RI happens. I did mention earlier today that I had a bad feeling about RI with this one.


they bout to take one on the chin!
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Quoting ncstorm:


unfortunately this aint looking good for Florida so far..there was hope with the GFS being the outlier and outperforming the Euro but it seems it wants to join along with the Euro it seems..but of course the Euro could flip with the 00z run..

feel worse for our friends in Jamaica, E Cuba and the Bahamas.... here's to hoping no RI happens. I did mention earlier today that I had a bad feeling about RI with this one.
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
00z GFS 10m Winds--that is one HUGE storm!

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00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 102 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 096 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


We were able to choose from universities and IBM research labs in Rio De Janeiro, Barcelona, Milan, Netherlands, Tokyo, Bejing, India.

I initially chose Brazil. My advisor overrode that.


Too bad, you would have enjoyed Rio.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all... I see Sandy is here, right on schedule... lol... Wonder if we're going to have any closures on the weekend due to this storm... The ones that cross Cuba, especially at the eastern end, normally are not in a very good shape by the time they get into Bahamian waters. I'm not overly appreciative of the possibility of a NWerly track on the weekend, but one hopes if that eventuality pans out it will be as a limited wind event.

It was overcast and somewhat breezy here today, and I saw people with sweaters and jackets this morning... :)
looks like a wet weekend for you!! I just got back from Great Guana. Just spoke to Johnny at Nippers....not too many worries yet.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

and stronger.


unfortunately this aint looking good for Florida so far..there was hope with the GFS being the outlier and outperforming the Euro but it seems it wants to join along with the Euro it seems..but of course the Euro could flip with the 00z run..
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Quoting wxchaser97:
At 84hrs she is deeper/ stronger and closer to the US.


In any case, it will be fantastic kite-flying weather for South Florida.

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
Quoting SunriseSteeda:
I don't think I have seen much mention of what, if any, effect, is expected by Sandy's eventual transition of the eastern Cuban mountains.

Is she expected to be large enough and weak enough where she would not be significantly disrupted?


I think she will weaken a little bit, but she will probably be large as well, especially if she rapidly intensifies. She will also be moving at a fairly good clip at that time, minimizing time over that country.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21013
Quoting KoritheMan:
Since TD19 will likely be Tony tomorrow, I want so badly to exhaust Valerie and William. Wanting to reach Alpha is asking for too much, but I know we can exhaust the remainder of this year's storms.


This little thing does look interesting.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 087 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Quoting ncstorm:
00z GFS has come west

18z


00z

and stronger.
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
At 84hrs she is deeper/ stronger and closer to the US.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
Quoting Grothar:


Interesting. I've been to Hong Kong many times, but never anywhere else in China.


We were able to choose from universities and IBM research labs in Rio De Janeiro, Barcelona, Milan, Netherlands, Tokyo, Bejing, India.

I initially chose Brazil. My advisor overrode that.
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
00z GFS has come west just a smidgen

18z


00z
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00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 075 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
393. 7544
did the 11pm cone shift west alittle tia
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Evening all... I see Sandy is here, right on schedule... lol... Wonder if we're going to have any closures on the weekend due to this storm... The ones that cross Cuba, especially at the eastern end, normally are not in a very good shape by the time they get into Bahamian waters. I'm not overly appreciative of the possibility of a NWerly track on the weekend, but one hopes if that eventuality pans out it will be as a limited wind event.

It was overcast and somewhat breezy here today, and I saw people with sweaters and jackets this morning... :)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 069 TILL 144


Seems a bit faster on this run.
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I don't think I have seen much mention of what, if any, effect, is expected by Sandy's eventual transition of the eastern Cuban mountains.

Is she expected to be large enough and weak enough where she would not be significantly disrupted?
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
Quoting wxchaser97:

Wait, it is still 2012? It could become a hurricane at a lower altitude as well, a first this year.


Altitude? Either you meant latitude, or you do actually mean a storm of low altitude... like really violent fog.
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:


By the way, I was in China as part of a worldwide NSF collaborative research grant where we worked in these areas of interest:

Cyberinfrastructure Enablement
Healthcare
Bioinformatics
Grid Computing
Hurricane Mitigation & Disaster Recovery


I wanted to work in the last area, of course! Got stuck with the cyberinfrastructure, later related to healthcare.




Interesting. I've been to Hong Kong many times, but never anywhere else in China.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting Autistic2:


Think of the presedent this sets for the EU.


Off weather for a minute.
It is a strange quirk of Italian law regarding manslaughter but is not EU law - it has even been applied to Team Managers/Lead Engineers of Formula 1 Teams who have had Race Drivers killed in Italy- most recently Colin Chapman (Lotus), then Patrick Head & Adrian Newey (Mclaren)+ 4 other engineers - none were imprisoned as often verdicts were handed down after Statute of Limitations had expired.
The Statute of Limitations for manslaughter in Italy is 7.5 years.
This latest incident does smack somewhat of the Dark Ages in Europe and Witch Trials in Salem - wonder what would happen to Weather Forecasters???
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:


And Beijing was soOoOOoooooo cheap! It was hard to drink enough to run out of money.

Not that I did that sort of thing. I was well-focused.



Sure....:)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting Grothar:


Norwegian is very easy for English speaking people to learn. Very similar to English. You will be able to hold a conversation in just a few weeks. Swedish is a little more complicated but they understand each other quite well. Both cities are very expensive in which to live. Oslo the worst.


By the way, I was in China as part of a worldwide NSF collaborative research grant where we worked in these areas of interest:

Cyberinfrastructure Enablement
Healthcare
Bioinformatics
Grid Computing
Hurricane Mitigation & Disaster Recovery


I wanted to work in the last area, of course! Got stuck with the cyberinfrastructure, later related to healthcare.


Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 069 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 060 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Quoting wxchaser97:
The weather should be good for when the Tigers take on the Giants later in the week, go Tigers!


You just lost a friend. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting wxchaser97:
The 00z GFS is running and it develops a strong TS to a hurricane before making landfall in Cuba, 54hrs.


Anything can happen. I actually saw one jump over Cuba once, no joke.
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NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF TAKING SANDY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO
THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...WHEREAS THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL...AND
OTHER LESS RELIABLE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
GIVEN THE HISTORICAL RELIABILITY OF THE ECMWF MODEL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TVCA AND TV15 CONSENSUS MODELS...AND
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.
This paragraph really tick me off.this year the gfs has perform better than the ECMWF.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4445
The weather should be good for when the Tigers take on the Giants later in the week, go Tigers!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
Quoting Grothar:


Norwegian is very easy for English speaking people to learn. Very similar to English. You will be able to hold a conversation in just a few weeks. Swedish is a little more complicated but they understand each other quite well. Both cities are very expensive in which to live. Oslo the worst.


And Beijing was soOoOOoooooo cheap! It was hard to drink enough to run out of money.

Not that I did that sort of thing. I was well-focused.

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
377. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL
11:00 AM PhST, October 23 2012
==============================

Tropical Depression "OFEL" moves continously westward posing risk to northern Mindanao-eastern Visayas Area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ofel [1000 hPa] located at 9.0°N 129.2°E or 300 km east of Tandag, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Visayas Region
=============
1. Leyte
2. Southern Leyte
3. Eastern Samar
4. Western Samar

Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Surigao Del Norte
2. Dinagat Island
3. Surigao Del Sur
4. Agusan Provinces
5. Camiguin Island

Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to Tropical Depression "OFEL" and the northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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The 00z GFS is running and it develops a strong TS to a hurricane before making landfall in Cuba, 54hrs.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
Quoting Grothar:


....and I saw it first.


Ah yes. Gotta give credit where credit is due.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21013
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 048 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Since TD19 will likely be Tony tomorrow, I want so badly to exhaust Valerie and William. Wanting to reach Alpha is asking for too much, but I know we can exhaust the remainder of this year's storms.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21013
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 036 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Am I correct in recalling that you can't have a "subtropical hurricane?" But you can have a tropical hurricane, and an extratropical storm of hurricane strength?

If so, why not a subtropical hurricane..


Subtropical storms can be subtropical hurricanes, only I don't know that the latter term is ever used officially. I suppose it's the same idea as winter storms & nor'easters can in fact be hurricanes.

Perhaps "hurricane" is reserved for storms with warm cores?
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
Quoting KoritheMan:
What's this, a tropical cyclone forming south of 20N? Are we still in 2012?


....and I saw it first.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 024 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Am I correct in recalling that you can't have a "subtropical hurricane?" But you can have a tropical hurricane, and an extratropical storm of hurricane strength?

If so, why not a subtropical hurricane..


Generally, when the winds go that high in a subtropical system, it is due to latent heat processes.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21013
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


My next study abroad stop is being determined, and will be either Oslo or Stockholm. I intend to speak mostly gibberish. Or perhaps COBOL. By the way, I wish I were still a kid.


Norwegian is very easy for English speaking people to learn. Very similar to English. You will be able to hold a conversation in just a few weeks. Swedish is a little more complicated but they understand each other quite well. Both cities are very expensive in which to live. Oslo the worst.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 012 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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