Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Late afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history
Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 19 taken at 12:30 pm EDT October 22, 2012. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Nineteen forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Nineteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Tony by early Tuesday morning. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it formed underneath is slowing development. TD 19 is over warm waters of 28°C, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning, which should allow TD 19 to develop into Tropical Storm Tony over the next day. On Wednesday, TD 19 is expected to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which should prevent further strengthening. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Really like Stewart's forecast.

INIT 23/0300Z 12.7N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.6N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.8N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.5N 77.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
72H 26/0000Z 22.7N 75.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 27/0000Z 25.7N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 28.2N 73.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

Sandy looks like she will be a hurricane by Wednesday. Could become a cat2 hurricane if she can build up her core enough tomorrow. Likely peak on Wednesday night or before it crosses Cuba. After that, land interaction coupled with building shear will prevent the storm from intensifying. There may be a slight chance for the storm to peak beyond Cuba, but it looks as though shear will be too strong for this too occur. By Friday, although the storm may continue to deepen, it will be from baroclinic processes (i.e. the strong jet aloft providing divergence, lowering surface pressures). Thus we can expect the storm to begin to expand its wind field and begin to look less purely tropical by Friday.
I think she could become a major hurricane. Right now I have her at 80 kt by the time she reaches Jamaica, but I anticipate that she could get a little stronger.
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465. 7544
dmax coming up
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Really like Stewart's forecast.

INIT 23/0300Z 12.7N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.6N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.8N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.5N 77.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
72H 26/0000Z 22.7N 75.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 27/0000Z 25.7N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 28.2N 73.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

Sandy looks like she will be a hurricane by Wednesday. Could become a cat2 hurricane if she can build up her core enough tomorrow. Likely peak on Wednesday night or before it crosses Cuba. After that, land interaction coupled with building shear will prevent the storm from intensifying. There may be a slight chance for the storm to peak beyond Cuba, but it looks as though shear will be too strong for this too occur. By Friday, although the storm may continue to deepen, it will be from baroclinic processes (i.e. the strong jet aloft providing divergence, lowering surface pressures). Thus we can expect the storm to begin to expand its wind field and begin to look less purely tropical by Friday.
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Quoting guygee:
While Sandy continues getting dressed for her big coming out party, here is a creepy one for your X-Files:

Six Italian Scientists Convicted of Manslaughter in Deadly 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake.

Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes.
I wonder if they would hire me?

Post 5 - March 11, 2012 - 12:34 AM

"In memory of those who have died in this terrible disaster(Japan's Megaquake,) I will remain silent, until Tuscany speaks."

On the eve of the annular eclipse over the island of Japan, Tuscany shook.







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iam out as well be back at first light around 7am for the morning run

later to anyone still here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Civicane49:


Yep. Thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized in the center. If it continues, then we'll likely have Tony in the next advisory.

Later all.
Have a good night.
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Poor Jamaica, they don't need a hurricane.
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Quoting allancalderini:
td 19 its looking better may become Tony at the next advisory.


Yep. Thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized in the center. If it continues, then we'll likely have Tony in the next advisory.

Later all.
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Quoting Civicane49:
TD 19:

td 19 its looking better may become Tony at the next advisory.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting BahaHurican:
The very two storms I was thinking about... Michelle was the first storm I tracked with my computer... it was amazing to watch that transition... until the back side came through and knocked out the power.... lol

And Lili ripped up my grandparents' house in Long Island... my grammy got hit again last year, and I'm not liking the idea of another storm for you guys again this year :o(

Even a TS can bring some serious flooding, like Noel...


Lili was a nightmare, here on Little Exuma we got walloped by the NE quadrant of the eyewall just as it intensifying to a cat 3. In George Town they recorded 155mph gusts until the anemometer blew out, we easily had more than that up my way along with a 20 foot storm surge...and the dual twisters were also a nice touch. I wish I could find the pictures of the roads they cut through the bush and the back portion of my house.

I was still repairing my house up until last year, and then Irene went and undid most of that.
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I wish I could stay up, but I gotta be at work for 7 a.m. tomorrow :( and the day promises to be extra-hectic so not sure how much checking in I will be able to do... :o(

I will at least look in around 5 a.m. to see what's gone on during the "best" hours....

Night all...
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
she looks to be bombing out tonight...look out jamaica, this is probably gonna be a hurricane by sunrise. trying to build a CDO still, but progressing rapidly.



kori, you writing tonight? or should I go to bed? =p

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
R.I. FLAG ON
MARK
13.79N/77.89W
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I'm starting to get some interesting feelings about this Sandy... do u think she is looking for the beaches???
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
R.I. FLAG ON
MARK
13.79N/77.89W


Tomorrow is going to be very, very interesting.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Our season here in Louisiana generally ends much sooner than yours does. It's not unprecedented to have a threat or two in November if you live in the Bahamas.
Exumamet was just talking about just talking about Michelle of 2001, which took a similar track over Cuba, only further west. The eye was huge enough to pass over New Providence in its entirety, even though the actual centre stayed south of the island... kinda like Wilma, only not so well organized. And it felt REALLY strange to be hunkered down for a hurricane on the 1st of November... lol
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I'm going to bed so good night everyone, it will be interesting to see what Sandy looks like later in the morning. At 156hrs the GFS sends Sandy out to seas as a strong hurricane.


That's not out to sea... that's right over Bermuda as a hurricane deeper than Fabian was. O_o
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Quoting ExumaMET:


It's like Hurricane Lili '96 for me all over again... or Hurricane Michelle in Nassau's case.
The very two storms I was thinking about... Michelle was the first storm I tracked with my computer... it was amazing to watch that transition... until the back side came through and knocked out the power.... lol

And Lili ripped up my grandparents' house in Long Island... my grammy got hit again last year, and I'm not liking the idea of another storm for you guys again this year :o(

Even a TS can bring some serious flooding, like Noel...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I doubt many people are paying much attention right now... It sure doesn't feel like "tropical" wx here right now... lol... shades of "winter"...


All the sexy women breaking out the fuzzy boots and the faux-fur hoodies right about now... completely unaware! lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:


One year does not historical reliability make...

This evening my dad was saying something about taking down the shutters now the season is over...

Oh, the irony!




I knew there had to be a jinx involved somewhere...
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443. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


What do you think?


Still embedded in the ITCZ. 90L is still touching off part of that giving advantage to the blob at 45 without the spin, just in front of it. It's got a chance to pull all that together as 90L moves away to the north. 90L has had it hampered a day or so.
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T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
R.I. FLAG ON
MARK
13.79N/77.89W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Abacosurf:
looks like a wet weekend for you!! I just got back from Great Guana. Just spoke to Johnny at Nippers....not too many worries yet.
I doubt many people are paying much attention right now... It sure doesn't feel like "tropical" wx here right now... lol... shades of "winter"...
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Quoting BahaHurican:

This evening my dad was saying something about taking down the shutters now the season is over...

Oh, the irony!

Our season here in Louisiana generally ends much sooner than yours does. It's not unprecedented to have a threat or two in November if you live in the Bahamas.
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Quoting allancalderini:
NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF TAKING SANDY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO
THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...WHEREAS THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL...AND
OTHER LESS RELIABLE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
GIVEN THE HISTORICAL RELIABILITY OF THE ECMWF MODEL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TVCA AND TV15 CONSENSUS MODELS...AND
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.
This paragraph really tick me off.this year the gfs has perform better than the ECMWF.


One year does not historical reliability make...

Quoting Thrawst:


Gotta start preparing.. both of us :/
This evening my dad was saying something about taking down the shutters now the season is over...

Oh, the irony!

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
TD 19:

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00z GFS 168 hours:

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CDO building now?
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Quoting Skyepony:


It was a tenacious looking twist lastnight on one of the passes. Fresh OSCAT. Looks more interesting tonight with convection.


What do you think?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25446
431. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 23 2012
=====================================

The low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea now lies over southeast and adjoining east central
Arabian Sea as well marked low pressure area. It may intensify into depression during next 24 hours.

The meteorological analysis suggest that a low pressure area would develop over south Andaman sea during next 48 hours. Dynamical Models are indicating its further intensification and initial west northwestwards movement.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Is English your first language? or do you also speak something else?

I said a bad word when I saw this...

U not the only one... this current setup looks to bring the COC somewhere between Long Island and New Providence.... NOT happy-making...


It's like Hurricane Lili '96 for me all over again... or Hurricane Michelle in Nassau's case.
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I'm going to bed so good night everyone, it will be interesting to see what Sandy looks like later in the morning. At 156hrs the GFS sends Sandy out to seas as a strong hurricane.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
00z GFS 144 hours:

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Water vapor loops show a newly-developed upper low located between south Florida and the north coast of Cuba. The GFS suggests this feature will gradually weaken and move eastward, but it looks like it's moving west for now. It could play a major role in rapid intensification with Sandy, even if it retrogrades as forecast.
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00Z GFS FINAL 23 OCT hr 144 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
425. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


This little thing does look interesting.



It was a tenacious looking twist lastnight on one of the passes. Fresh OSCAT. Looks more interesting tonight with convection.
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Quoting 1441114:
Speculations from the NHC of the track of Sandy is going to cost people their lives , just like those scientist who were convicted of what the Italian government called them murders , I hope the NHC thinks they are right on the track , because if they are not then if it strike CA as a major or anywhere they say it not , then they are in trouble , because the precedent has now been set that forecasters can be held liable , because in my mind everybody is liable for their actions , nobody's above the laws. So the hurricane center better be right , which I serious doubt , forecasting weather nobody's right at all ! Yes humans makes mistakes all the time , but putting people's lives at stake just is no right. The tracks or models are inaccurate , if you want to see where Sandy is going just look at the satellite pics , and she's moving very little , but I've seen a hint toward the west or west northwest , if that's the case then the Yucatan and then all of Florida and the whole East coast should be on the lookout for a MAJOR storm , then maybe a nor'easter , and gets a new name from the TWC !
Is English your first language? or do you also speak something else?

Quoting Grothar:
Every model seems to show all the convection on the left side instead of the right.

I said a bad word when I saw this...

Quoting ExumaMET:
Well this looks like a wonderful setup for those of us in the central bahamas

I HATE late-season storms.
U not the only one... this current setup looks to bring the COC somewhere between Long Island and New Providence.... NOT happy-making...
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Quoting Grothar:


There is a whole world out there. I don't think I have ever been anywhere in the world that I did not find interesting or exciting. (OK, well New Jersey maybe :)


I agree, NJ is the bastard child of NY with lower taxes.
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Sandy:

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00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 138 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296


Looks like Sandy will follow the cloud deck to the north. Look at all the convection up to the central Bahamas. There is a tell tale there.
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00Z GFS INIT 23 OCT hr 123 TILL 144


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Maybe they'll fund a conference trip to Rio. One can hope. Must past qualifying exams in 3 weeks to have such hope for next year (or else I will be in the doghouse).

I want to experience weather outside of Florida and the East Coast!


There is a whole world out there. I don't think I have ever been anywhere in the world that I did not find interesting or exciting. (OK, well New Jersey maybe :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25446
Sandy will be passing over progressively greater heat content when she gets moving again:

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416. 7544
looks like she wants to go west some more if she is moving lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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