Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Late afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history
Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 19 taken at 12:30 pm EDT October 22, 2012. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Nineteen forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Nineteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Tony by early Tuesday morning. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it formed underneath is slowing development. TD 19 is over warm waters of 28°C, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning, which should allow TD 19 to develop into Tropical Storm Tony over the next day. On Wednesday, TD 19 is expected to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which should prevent further strengthening. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Where is Florida in all that mess?


A little to the left.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting 954FtLCane:


'!Danny..!..'

'SANDY!'
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Women

Sandy Chambers, British singer
Sandy Dennis (1937–1992), American actress
Sandy Denny (1947–1978), British singer and songwriter
Sandy Descher, American actress
Sandy Duncan, American singer and actress
Sandy Green, British singer and songwriter
Sandy Leah Lima, Brazilian singer-songwriter and actress
Sandy Mölling, German singer
Sandy Powell (costume designer) (born 1960)
Sandy Shaw, an American writer on health
Sandy West, an American musician. Drummer of The Runaways
Sandy, the pseudonym of the porn model Zsanett Égerházi

Men

Sandy Brown (musician) (1929–75), Scottish jazz clarinetist
Sandy Calder, or Alexander Calder, American sculptor and artist
Sandy Collins (politician), Canadian politician in Newfoundland and Labrador
Sandy Dvore, American artist
Sandy Gall, British broadcaster
Sandy Koufax (born 1935), American Hall of Fame baseball pitcher
Sandy Lyle, British golfer
Sandy Patch, or Alexander Patch (1889–1945), general of US Army in World War II
Sandy Powell (comedian) (1900–1982)
Sandy Rass, British songwriter and Musical Theatre star
Sandy Rothman, American bluegrass musician and producer
Sandy Smith (born 1983), Scottish visual artist
Sandy Wollaston (1875–1930), British explorer
Sandy Woodward (born 1932), nickname of British Admiral John Woodward

Fictional

Sandy Brown, a character from Noozles (1988–1993)
Sandy Cheeks, a character from SpongeBob SquarePants
Sandy Cohen, a character in the TV series The OC played by Peter Gallagher
Sandy Hawkins, a DC Comics superhero
Sandy Olsson, a character from the 1978 musical film Grease
Sha Wujing (Sandy) in the Chinese epic Journey to the West
Sandy, from the Japanese TV series Monkey based on Journey to the West
Half of Julian and Sandy in the British radio comedy Round the Horne
Sandy, Little Orphan Annie's dog
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
R.I. XXXX XXX
MARK
13.79N/77.89W
Sandy is parked in quite a nice spot as well.

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Quoting Grothar:
96 hours





Where is Florida in all that mess?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
KOTG - WOW, look at that blow-up. Great post Keeper...
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T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
R.I. XXXX XXX
MARK
13.79N/77.89W
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IMHO, everything that Sandy is doing was predicted in the short term. Now the waiting/watching game begins and the model consensus will be able to get a better handle on her once a final center/core is established.

However, it is interesting to research and theorize the eventual track of her.

And I can agree that, especially, recently, it doesn't take a Major Hurricane to inflict a lot of pain on a lot of people.
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96 hours



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
T.C.F.A.
19L CYCLONE DEPRESSION
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The GFS edged westward a little, but it's sticking to its guns regarding an eventual curve out to sea, even though it's running out of model friends in that category... I still believe the GFS solution personally.



It's really the most reasonable and believable solution. However if that large Atlantic low backs to the west like other models are showing, then it blocks Sandy from recurving east.
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Before everyone on the blog puts all their faith in the computer models; theire is still room for error

Link
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18z Nogaps is running



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
18Z GFS

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
It's stalled right now, interested in seeing when it starts making its turn northwest.
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The GFS edged westward a little, but it's sticking to its guns regarding an eventual curve out to sea, even though it's running out of model friends in that category... I still believe the GFS solution personally.

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Quoting ncstorm:


No I am in SE NC..Wilmington
Cool
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Based on the 18z GFS the closest approached to the U.S. coast is at 90hours. After that Sandy continues moving away from the U.S.


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18Z GFS FINAL hr 144 TILL 144


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Quoting AztecCe:
where are you in NC? anywhere on the OB?


No I am in SE NC..Wilmington
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
18Z GFS hr 138 TILL 144


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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. M; looking like the possibility of Hurricane warnings for Jamaica if this current organization continues into tomorrow and Wednesday before it levels off.

Interesting to note from your chart on busiest Atlantic seasons that 2010-11-12 are back to back years compared to the other seasons. Don't know what that will mean for next year but the US has certainly been very lucky for the past several years in terms of no major landfalls.


I'm starting to think it doesn't matter, as Isaac and Irene were both as destructive as most major hurricanes.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
18Z GFS hr 129 TILL 144


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Quoting ncstorm:
the JMA Model

120 hours


144 hours
where are you in NC? anywhere on the OB?
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Hmmmm.... I don't like complicated steering patterns and potential for rapid intensification. This one needs to be watched closely...

Hopefully the adage that a watched storm never comes is true.
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18Z GFS hr 120 TILL 144


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18Z GFS hr 096 TILL 144


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By 120 hours Sandy's out to sea.
I noticed that the 18z has Sandy waiting longer and getting closer to Fl. before making the N.E. turn and going out to sea.
We'll have to see if that continues.
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18Z GFS hr 072 TILL 144


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The GFS has been the most unreliable concerning Sandy's interaction with east full lattitude trough!!!!
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18Z GFS hr 048 TILL 144


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Thanks Dr.
Looks like my season forecast of 21 named storms has a good shot to be a prescient forecast!!!!, even if a few of them were more of concern to Europe instead of the Caribbean, CA, or NA.
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Pretty decent looking.

Pressures are very low across most of the Caribbean, so don't look for a sharp increase in winds until this develops some sort of inner core.

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18Z GFS hr 024 TILL 144


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Quoting Autistic2:
from Dr. Masters
it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday


Does this mean NE FL is still in play?
im worried about carolina
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18Z INIT GFS hr 000 TILL 144


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This season was supposed to be average season, because of the neutral to borderline el NINO.....But no the 2012 hurricane season becomes the seventh busiest on record, sign of we are in the peak of the tropical multi-decadal signal

And the models are trend to stay neutral to develops LA NINA again so 2013 maybe will be even more busy
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Quoting ncstorm:
the JMA Model

120 hours


144 hours
finishes up on my doorstep
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


IMO, there's a chance we could see a final, Ida like storm in November, making the 2012 season tied with the 2nd most active season ever.



yep
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We could easily be looking at a strong TS or even a hurricane before Sandy leaves the Caribbean. She has really wrapped up and organized today.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i think in NOV we could see 2 name storms


IMO, there's a chance we could see a final, Ida like storm in November, making the 2012 season tied with the 2nd most active season ever.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
GFS at 93 hours - getting too close for comfort.
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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
6:00 AM JST October 23 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.2N 131.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.5N 128.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. M; looking like the possibility of Hurricane warnings for Jamaica if this current organization continues into tomorrow and Wednesday before it levels off.

Interesting to note from your chart on busiest Atlantic seasons that 2010-11-12 are back to back years compared to the other seasons. Don't know what that will mean for next year but the US has certainly been very lucky for the past several years in terms of no major landfalls.
Very lucky..... I rejoice every year we are hurricane free
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Thankyou Dr. Masters
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Few degrees farther west on the 18z GFS.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32864
the JMA Model

120 hours


144 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Thanks Dr. M; looking like the possibility of Hurricane warnings for Jamaica if this current organization continues into tomorrow and Wednesday before it levels off.

Interesting to note from your chart on busiest Atlantic seasons that 2010-11-12 are back to back years compared to the other seasons. Don't know what that will mean for next year but the US has certainly been very lucky for the past several years in terms of no major landfalls.
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18z GFS at 85 hours
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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