Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Late afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history
Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 19 taken at 12:30 pm EDT October 22, 2012. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Nineteen forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Nineteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Tony by early Tuesday morning. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it formed underneath is slowing development. TD 19 is over warm waters of 28°C, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning, which should allow TD 19 to develop into Tropical Storm Tony over the next day. On Wednesday, TD 19 is expected to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which should prevent further strengthening. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

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could td 19 be upgrade in the next update to Tony?
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Seems like Jamaica would be a good place for a tropical storm warning to go up.
Would have to agree. Of all places where a TS warning should appear tonight, I'd place Jamiaca on the top of the list. Sandy will come calling.
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I'm not in agreement with a 50mph TS at 120hrs, even with a landfall I think that is too low. Sandy should have a good environment for strengthening even north of the Caribbean to allow strengthening. I am not saying a major hurricane or a stronger cat2, but I think 50mph is too low though.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Still has a ways to go before any RI can occur however its getting there. Also based on the Lat/Lon the storm has moving 2 degrees North and West so if it start moving more it should be moving NW lets see how far west it can go before turning N.
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Seems like Jamaica would be a good place for a tropical storm warning to go up.
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Sandy is becoming better organized.
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I don't know why anyone else tries to post the TWOs and storm advisories when Cody always beats everyone to it, ha.

Also, lots of moisture in the Caribbean:

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SANDY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

8:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 22
Location: 12.7°N 78.7°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Dem haffi keep dem eye pon it.


LOL...yes stormwatcher yu have down pat.
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The key words are getting better organized.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mi have a few friends bro


I see. It's all good.
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...SANDY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
8:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 22
Location: 12.7°N 78.7°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...SANDY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Latest microwave shows Sandy still in formative stage,not impressive yet.

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be back in a bit
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I nominate Sandy Duncan. She's the one most like a tropical cyclone, for she, too, has but a single eye.

Just sayin'...
what about sandy colfax his great curveball like this is going to curve
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west coast of latin america are in for a onshorewinds could be wet times ahead for them.
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Quoting HurricaneJamaica:


Nice use of our creole Keeper. Seems like you have Jamaican roots. Mi tell nuff a mi fren dem dat dis storm nuh fi ramp wid. Translation (I told a lot of my friends that this storm is not to be taken lightly)
Dem haffi keep dem eye pon it.
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Quoting HurricaneJamaica:


Nice use of our creole Keeper. Seems like you have Jamaican roots. Mi tell nuff a mi fren dem dat dis storm nuh fi ramp wid. Translation (I told a lot of my friends that this storm is not to be taken lightly)
mi have a few friends bro
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I say at 8:00 p.m or at the latest 11:00 p.m....TS Warnings for Eastern Cuba and TS Watches for portions of the Bahamas.

Surprised Cuban Gov. is holding off of TS Watches.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11106
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shear? What shear?


Actually its sitting in a nice pocket of low shear however dry air is filtering through the storm from the SW. Since its small and the COC is not too insulated with convection some dry air can make the system look lopsided.
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00z runs will get recon data this update
nam(non-tropical model) will be first after 10 pm
then gfs after 1130pm
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Quoting unknowncomic:
It is the 18z though.


That doesn't mean anything, a common misconception is that the 18z and 06z is less accurate than the 12z and the 00z, if anything, the 18z is slightly more accurate than the others according to model error averages.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shear? What shear?
maybe i should have said race instead picky
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


19l looking like a goblin as storms shear off to the ne

Shear? What shear?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895


19l looking like a goblin as storms shear off to the ne
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yeah
keep the eyes open
jamaica Memba mi tell yu


Nice use of our creole Keeper. Seems like you have Jamaican roots. Mi tell nuff a mi fren dem dat dis storm nuh fi ramp wid. Translation (I told a lot of my friends that this storm is not to be taken lightly)
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Quoting opal92nwf:
Aircraft observations show that the central region of the storm is
characterized by a fairly flat pressure field...but the center
appears to be located somewhat to the south of the previous
estimates. However...little overall motion appears to have taken
place this afternoon. Global models predict that the
mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Sandy will gradually weaken
within the next day or so...which should allow the tropical cyclone
to begin moving north to north-northeastward soon. The official
track forecast is somewhat to the west of the model consensus but
not as far west as the latest ECMWF forecast.
This is only a
little to the west of the previous official forecast track.


Does anyone know how far west the Euro is showing? I can't view it on my computer at this moment.


.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Notice the convection to the SE of the COC over South America rushing into the circulation which indicates air is really piling up in the SW Caribbean this could be the start of RI the only thing that's hindering it is the lack of CDO which is changing quickly.


It totally looks like it wants to do a WPac.

I wonder, does the curve of C America there, help RI, like it does along the SE coast of Mexico?!

And wondering about how the Doctor said once it gets past Cuba, it will experience a lot of shear, yet many of the models show it bombing out pretty good
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Quoting 954FtLCane (#63):
Women

Sandy Chambers, British singer
Sandy Dennis (1937–1992), American actress
Sandy Denny (1947–1978), British singer and songwriter
Sandy Descher, American actress
Sandy Duncan, American singer and actress
Sandy Green, British singer and songwriter
Sandy Leah Lima, Brazilian singer-songwriter and actress
Sandy Mölling, German singer
Sandy Powell (costume designer) (born 1960)
Sandy Shaw, an American writer on health
Sandy West, an American musician. Drummer of The Runaways
Sandy, the pseudonym of the porn model Zsanett Égerházi
I nominate Sandy Duncan. She's the one most like a tropical cyclone, for she, too, has but a single eye.

Just sayin'...
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this is the 12z CMC 10m Winds





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15139
Quoting unknowncomic:
It is the 18z though.

It's not as unreliable as you think. In fact, there are barely any differences between the 12z/0z and the 06z/18z despite the fact that the former gets upper air observations.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Aircraft observations show that the central region of the storm is
characterized by a fairly flat pressure field...but the center
appears to be located somewhat to the south of the previous
estimates. However...little overall motion appears to have taken
place this afternoon. Global models predict that the
mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Sandy will gradually weaken
within the next day or so...which should allow the tropical cyclone
to begin moving north to north-northeastward soon. The official
track forecast is somewhat to the west of the model consensus but
not as far west as the latest ECMWF forecast.
This is only a
little to the west of the previous official forecast track.


Does anyone know how far west the Euro is showing? I can't view it on my computer at this moment.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
At this hour, Sandy is really expanding in size...



Notice the convection to the SE of the COC over South America rushing into the circulation which indicates air is really piling up in the SW Caribbean this could be the start of RI the only thing that's hindering it is the lack of CDO which is changing quickly.
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10m Winds





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15139
See Yall Tomorrow. Better and better chances that the surf will be up for the surfers along Sebastian Inlet and that part of the Florida coast..........Big riptide threat for sure for the East Coast coming up so keep the little ones out of the water as this storm approaches going into the weekend.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11106
Quoting Grothar:


A little to the left.


IF that track and intensity verifies, no doubt... In fact, some of my stuff might be in Texas.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Sandy is parked in quite a nice spot as well.



yeah
keep the eyes open
jamaica Memba mi tell yu
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Miami NWS Disco - Issued at 2:58 p.m.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND INTO WEEKEND WILL
BE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 AND ITS IMPACTS ON
THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST ADVISORY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM
INDICATES THAT IT WILL BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CUBA
THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING ON A NNE TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST ADVISORY PACKAGE
INDICATES MAINLY 5-10 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF WINDS REACHING 34
KNOTS ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DECREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NNE AND AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATL.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FINAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE AS IT CONTINUES
NORTH...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AS UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11106
I think we are going to need a bigger boat..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15139
At this hour, Sandy is really expanding in size...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11106
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It got quite a bit closer to the US this run, before the final recurve. Interesting to see the GFS starting to shift towards the CMC/ECMWF, and not vice versa like with Isaac.
It is the 18z though.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm starting to think it doesn't matter, as Isaac and Irene were both as destructive as most major hurricanes.


Yup. TS Allison in Florida a few years back caused lots of destruction from flooding all over the State. You have to consider compiling rain content comparisons for groups of slow moving or meandering land falling tropical storms as compared to faster moving hurricanes (I would probably pick Florida or the Gulf Coast for the comparison studies) to do some analysis on inland flooding damage (including river flooding) vs coastal saltwater storm surge damage (and the costly upward costs because of over developed coastlines).

Pick your poison (coastal storm surge/wind damage/inland flooding)..............No potent storm is good news anyway you cut it when impacting heavily populated or developed areas.
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(click to enlarge)


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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The GFS edged westward a little, but it's sticking to its guns regarding an eventual curve out to sea, even though it's running out of model friends in that category... I still believe the GFS solution personally.



It got quite a bit closer to the US this run, before the final recurve. Interesting to see the GFS starting to shift towards the CMC/ECMWF, and not vice versa like with Isaac.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Where is Florida in all that mess?


A little to the left.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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