Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Late afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history
Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 19 taken at 12:30 pm EDT October 22, 2012. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Nineteen forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Nineteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Tony by early Tuesday morning. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it formed underneath is slowing development. TD 19 is over warm waters of 28°C, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning, which should allow TD 19 to develop into Tropical Storm Tony over the next day. On Wednesday, TD 19 is expected to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which should prevent further strengthening. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

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This blog is very unimpressive for a strengthening storm in the Caribbean and it's possible effects it will have on me :P oh. and others hehe
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While Sandy continues getting dressed for her big coming out party, here is a creepy one for your X-Files:

Six Italian Scientists Convicted of Manslaughter in Deadly 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake.

Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track remains as TD 19.

AL, 19, 2012102300, , BEST, 0, 225N, 518W, 30, 1006, TD
It better strength to ts Tony tomorrow we have done well with name storms will be a shame that these one stay as a td.
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When do the next model runs begin?
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Holy banding, Batman!

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Quoting Grothar:


Skye, this is the last time we are going to tell you. It is Rafael!!!!


C'mon, it's 2012! Time for a little recognition of the transgendered storms.

Jokes aside, I knew he was still meandering out there.

In other news, at this rate, we will see a very healthy hurricane Sandy tomorrow... perhaps around 11 am.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Upper right is Rachael remains, bottom left is 19L.



Skye, this is the last time we are going to tell you. It is Rafael!!!!
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158. Skyepony (Mod)
Upper right is Rachael remains, bottom left is 19L.

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157. JRRP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection firing directly around the center is never a good thing.


looks like NNE movement in the last frame
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156. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not the RAW though, up to 3.4


Now it's 3.7. The constraints seem a little much for the organization we've seen.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for Sandy is at 40kts.

AL, 18, 2012102300, , BEST, 0, 127N, 786W, 40, 998, TS

I say the 11pm advisory should be 45-50mph winds.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Wondering how close Sandy will get to South FLorida,and what we are going to feel here from this system???.Hope it did not destroy our Holloween Party this coming Saturday.Any thoughts??.

I don't think Sandy will get close enough to S FL to get any major impacts. The NE however is in a different boat right now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Wondering how close Sandy will get to South FLorida,and what we are going to feel here from this system???.Hope it did not destroy our Holloween Party this coming Saturday.Any thoughts??.


Keep an eye on it. Cause October tends to bring tropical trouble for Florida.
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Convection firing directly around the center is never a good thing.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Wondering how close Sandy will get to South FLorida,and what we are going to feel here from this system???.Hope it did not destroy our Holloween Party this coming Saturday.Any thoughts??.


don't wear a cape!! it looks like it'll be squally and def windy. It all depends on how close to s fla it gets. The 0z models should tell us more as the hurricane hunter info will be included.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Geoffrey, stop playing with those crayons.
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150. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh Cloudsat of Sandy. Extreme right side, south of Hispaniola. Like the other big ones this year..kinda tall for being a Tropical Storm. Sandy is on the left. Shower on right is over South America. Click pic for better orientation.

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Wondering how close Sandy will get to South FLorida,and what we are going to feel here from this system???.Hope it did not destroy our Holloween Party this coming Saturday.Any thoughts??.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


Isn't that a strong TS? Well then.


That would be in the 50-60 mph range. I think we will have 50mph at 11pm and probably a slight westward shift.
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Wondering how close Sandy will get to South FLorida,and what we are going to feel here from this system???.Hope it did not destroy our Holloween Party this coming Saturday.Any thoughts??.
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00z Best Track for Sandy is at 40kts.

AL, 18, 2012102300, , BEST, 0, 127N, 786W, 40, 998, TS
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not the RAW though, up to 3.4


Isn't that a strong TS? Well then.
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Quoting JRRP:


Sandy looks nicely stacked no shear to disrupt it.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track remains as TD 19.

AL, 19, 2012102300, , BEST, 0, 225N, 518W, 30, 1006, TD



yep


22/2345 UTC 22.3N 51.8W T2.0/2.0 19L -- Atlantic
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Quoting Skyepony:
Dvorak is running conservative on Sandy. CI=2.0 & 1009mb.


Not the RAW though, up to 3.4
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141. JRRP
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Quoting HurricaneJamaica:


LOL...yes stormwatcher yu have down pat.
Well, you know we have our share of Jamaicans here so I hear it every day lol.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
00z Best Track remains as TD 19.

AL, 19, 2012102300, , BEST, 0, 225N, 518W, 30, 1006, TD
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137. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM almost 24hrs ago..what a diff a day can make. Nice hot tower there.. Click pic for movie.

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136. Skyepony (Mod)
OSCAT had a good pass. Sucking in all the moisture it can get at.
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135. JRRP

interesting
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just saying but the CMC ensembles has one heading for the west coast of Florida..

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133. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What? 1009 mbs?


It missed recon..
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Quoting Skyepony:
Dvorak is running conservative on Sandy. CI=2.0 & 1009mb.


What? 1009 mbs?
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Quoting Skyepony:
Sandy on Rainbow.



Convection waning but leading with way to a new burst to expand also I want to note a slight bit dry air infiltrating the NW quadrant. Lets see if it can mix it out tonight.
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No upgrade.

22/2345 UTC 22.3N 51.8W T2.0/2.0 19L -- Atlantic
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129. Skyepony (Mod)
Same as 19L..lol.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
Women

Sandy Chambers, British singer
Sandy Dennis (1937–1992), American actress
Sandy Denny (1947–1978), British singer and songwriter
Sandy Descher, American actress
Sandy Duncan, American singer and actress
Sandy Green, British singer and songwriter
Sandy Leah Lima, Brazilian singer-songwriter and actress
Sandy Mölling, German singer
Sandy Powell (costume designer) (born 1960)
Sandy Shaw, an American writer on health
Sandy West, an American musician. Drummer of The Runaways
Sandy, the pseudonym of the porn model Zsanett Égerházi

Men

Sandy Brown (musician) (1929–75), Scottish jazz clarinetist
Sandy Calder, or Alexander Calder, American sculptor and artist
Sandy Collins (politician), Canadian politician in Newfoundland and Labrador
Sandy Dvore, American artist
Sandy Gall, British broadcaster
Sandy Koufax (born 1935), American Hall of Fame baseball pitcher
Sandy Lyle, British golfer
Sandy Patch, or Alexander Patch (1889–1945), general of US Army in World War II
Sandy Powell (comedian) (1900–1982)
Sandy Rass, British songwriter and Musical Theatre star
Sandy Rothman, American bluegrass musician and producer
Sandy Smith (born 1983), Scottish visual artist
Sandy Wollaston (1875–1930), British explorer
Sandy Woodward (born 1932), nickname of British Admiral John Woodward

Fictional

Sandy Brown, a character from Noozles (1988–1993)
Sandy Cheeks, a character from SpongeBob SquarePants
Sandy Cohen, a character in the TV series The OC played by Peter Gallagher
Sandy Hawkins, a DC Comics superhero
Sandy Olsson, a character from the 1978 musical film Grease
Sha Wujing (Sandy) in the Chinese epic Journey to the West
Sandy, from the Japanese TV series Monkey based on Journey to the West
Half of Julian and Sandy in the British radio comedy Round the Horne
Sandy, Little Orphan Annie's dog
Don't forget the Springsteen song. I know it's not the 4th of July, but Asbury Park is a remote possibility.
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127. Skyepony (Mod)
Dvorak is running conservative on Sandy. CI=2.0 & 1009mb.
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Just got back from a boring dinner. No one wanted to discuss the weather.


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124. Skyepony (Mod)
Sandy on Rainbow.

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18/9/3 was my prediction, however it looks like TD 19 will become Tony and unless Sandy can undergo rapid intensification and a storm gets upgraded in post season analysis that I will just be off on my predictions.
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I'm thinking no upgrade at 11 for TD 19. Convection is becoming less concentrated.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Depends on what SAB and TAFB came back with. CIMSS-ADT intensity estimates support tropical storm intensity, but it is known to be a little bullish.

Also with Sandy's case it is underestimated the strength. As long as SAB and TAFB numbers support a TS then the NHC will likely go with a TS.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Depends on what SAB and TAFB came back with. CIMSS-ADT intensity estimates support tropical storm intensity, but it is known to be a little bullish.
oh ok I am hoping they come back for an upgrade.
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Quoting allancalderini:
could td 19 be upgrade in the next update to Tony?

Depends on what SAB and TAFB came back with. CIMSS-ADT intensity estimates support tropical storm intensity, but it is known to be a little bullish.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
Quoting Neapolitan:
I nominate Sandy Duncan. She's the one most like a tropical cyclone, for she, too, has but a single eye.

Just sayin'...
Neo!

I nominate Olivia Newton John because she sent John Travolta into a spin. Sandy. (Someone had to do it.)
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could td 19 be upgrade in the next update to Tony?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.