Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Late afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history
Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 19 taken at 12:30 pm EDT October 22, 2012. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Nineteen forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Nineteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Tony by early Tuesday morning. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it formed underneath is slowing development. TD 19 is over warm waters of 28°C, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning, which should allow TD 19 to develop into Tropical Storm Tony over the next day. On Wednesday, TD 19 is expected to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which should prevent further strengthening. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting avthunder:
Oh no you didn't !!
Speaking of the big W this is her first sat pic after sunrise. From a 70KT storm to one of the strongest canes to ever exist. Amazing what 1 night can do.
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Models keep inching westward. After the 5pm adjustment, the NHC is again the eastern outlier of the models below heading into the Bahamas.



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the gov't prepares you in Cuba. They move you if they want to....mandatory. They just can't run up the street to the local publix or home depot. Sad but true but in a way good on evacuations.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

By expecting a solution 50%.


Or in other words, to cover your back, you half expect both so you aren't wrong. Got it.
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The Model are E of the it
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
Somebody PLEASE get the "clouds" feature on Google Earth to work right! It's blurry when you zoom in! Thanks! :)
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The article concludes:

"If the scientific community is to be penalised for making predictions that turn out to be incorrect, or for not accurately predicting an event that subsequently occurs, then scientific endeavour will be restricted to certainties only and the benefits that are associated with findings from medicine to physics will be stalled."

What about weather (Hurricanes, winter storms and Twisters, derechos), Tsunamis,volcanic eruptions, asteroids, solar storms predictions......

What about making liable TepCo in Japan?
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Looking healthy, Jamaicans & Cubans should be preparing for a hurricane if they aren't already.

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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Just going to throw this out there. Wilma was in a very similar spot when she started to RI.
(Please don't hurt me)
Oh no you didn't !!
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Heavy rain now here in the TCI
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Just going to throw this out there. Wilma was in a very similar spot when she started to RI.
(Please don't hurt me)
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Wow!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
Sounds like the situation is deteriorating quickly. I hope everyone in Sandy's threat zone pays close attention and stays safe.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Tropical Storm Sandy
12 Hours: 50 mph Pressure: 997 hPa
24 Hours: 55 mph Pressure: 995 hPa
36 Hours: 55 mph Pressure: 996 hPa
48 Hours: 60 mph Pressure: 993 hPa

Tropical Depression Nineteen (Tony)
12 Hours: 40 mph Pressure: 1004 hPa
24 Hours: 45 mph Pressure: 1002 hPa
36 Hours: 50 mph Pressure: 1001 hPa
48 Hours: 40 mph Pressure: 1005 hPa


(Those forecasts are my opinion)
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Quoting MississippiWx:


How do you half expect something?

It is TA so you never know. IIRC from science, you can't expect half of a solution, it is all or nothing.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Becoming very well organized, excellent spiral banding.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is a strong TS in the morning.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Interesting....What will be the effect of this trough into W Conus over Sandy?

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Just going to throw this out there. Wilma was in a very similar spot when she started to RI.
(Please don't hurt me)
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199. JRRP
Link
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Quoting flcanes:

it is possible
the "storm who shall not be named did it"
u know what i am talking bout right
Is it a female name? Does it end with an "A"?
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Quoting guygee:
While Sandy continues getting dressed for her big coming out party, here is a creepy one for your X-Files:

Six Italian Scientists Convicted of Manslaughter in Deadly 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake.

Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes.

WTH!!!! have they lost their minds. Who's next on there list, meteorologists if they make an inexact, incomplete and contradictory forecast. Sorry but Mother nature doesn't give blatant warning of what she's going to do, subtle hints that might not be noticed but not massive hints that really say, in 2hrs there will be a 6.5 quake. Shocking, just shocking.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Becoming very well organized, excellent spiral banding.
Looking very healthy, good outflow. Jamaica should get a hurricane warning at 11; this thing could blow up.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

By expecting a solution 50%.

true
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
Quoting MississippiWx:


How do you half expect something?

By expecting a solution 50%.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


How do you half expect something?

sarcasm
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Half expecting to see an intensifying hurricane in the morning, lol.


it is possible
the "storm who shall not be named did it"
u know what i am talking bout right
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Half expecting to see an intensifying hurricane in the morning, lol.



How do you half expect something?
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Do I see a CDO forming? RI about to get underway?
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Quoting sunlinepr:

has great potential
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
Half expecting to see an intensifying hurricane in the morning, lol.

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Becoming very well organized, excellent spiral banding.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
How close is Sandy to typhoon Tip in size this frame (Old)?

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Big surf for E FLorida / Conus

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T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
R.I. FLAG FLAG
MARK
13.79N/77.89W
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Wow..the GFS ensembles have shifted west







Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15683
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Single most depressing thing I have read all day.


Meanwhile what's-his-face from the Costa Concordia is still walking around.
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Quoting Autistic2:


Think of the presedent this sets for the EU.
Maybe they will win a Nobel Prize in the sciences now.
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178. JRRP
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176. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


Skye, this is the last time we are going to tell you. It is Rafael!!!!


LOL! & I was working on weather jokes for AMS, trying to win a book. Good laugh there..
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Quoting guygee:
Pretty high on my list too, but think of the poor Italian seismology students.


Think of the presedent this sets for the EU.
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Think what might happen to their Vulcanologist if one of their volcano's has a serious eruption, they do have several volcano's. Why not punish the architects, engineers and politicians involved rather than scientists that are not able to predict eruptions  as  Mother Earth does not send announcements out.
Quoting guygee:
Pretty high on my list too, but think of the poor Italian seismology students.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Sandy is a classic monsoonal tropical cyclone with a huge circulation, plentiful banding, and great outflow. I believe the large circulation, however, is going to be the impediment to rapid strengthening. I do believe that Sandy has a great potential to rapidly intensify, but I think it might take longer for it to occur which would limit its overall potential strength. The large circulation was proven earlier through recon finding a large area of similar pressures towards the center.

Hey look who it is... I do believe there is a great chance that Sandy does RI in the Caribbean. I think she could get to category 1 strength before land weakens her some. Those high TCHP and SST values with lower shear can be a good combination for tropical cyclones.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 64% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%)

Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 45% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 8.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%)



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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Single most depressing thing I have read all day.
Pretty high on my list too, but think of the poor Italian seismology students.
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
Sandy is a classic monsoonal tropical cyclone with a huge circulation, plentiful banding, and great outflow. I believe the large circulation, however, is going to be the impediment to rapid strengthening. I do believe that Sandy has a great potential to rapidly intensify, but I think it might take longer for it to occur which would limit its overall potential strength. The large circulation was proven earlier through recon finding a large area of similar pressures towards the center.
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Good Evening...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting guygee:
While Sandy continues getting dressed for her big coming out party, here is a creepy one for your X-Files:

Six Italian Scientists Convicted of Manslaughter in Deadly 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake.

Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes.
Single most depressing thing I have read all day.
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This blog is very unimpressive for a strengthening storm in the Caribbean and it's possible effects it will have on me :P oh. and others hehe
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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