Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.


Figure 1. Late afternoon satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history
Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 19 taken at 12:30 pm EDT October 22, 2012. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Nineteen forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Depression Nineteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Tony by early Tuesday morning. TD 19 has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it formed underneath is slowing development. TD 19 is over warm waters of 28°C, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning, which should allow TD 19 to develop into Tropical Storm Tony over the next day. On Wednesday, TD 19 is expected to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which should prevent further strengthening. TD 19 will not threaten any land areas, and is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

??


quoting you, qouting doppler 22.... ??
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Messy...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

??

??
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Quoting Doppler22:

??

??
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...checking the timing of windsat info posted
(WindSat not updating)

so here is OScat from earlier...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Raw T# for Sandy is up to hurricane intensity.

??
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Latest hurricane models at 126hrs.

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Quoting Grothar:


Well isn't that convenient for me?
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(NON-TROPICAL MODEL)
00Z NAM INIT 23 OCT hr 048 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Gro...possible TS Watches/Warnings for south Fl. under the current model runs?
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All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormSandy @ 23Oct.12am
Since the previous mapping, AL18's StormStatus on 22Oct.6pm has been reevaluated&altered from TropicalDepression to TropicalStorm
14.6n76.8w 14.4n77.2w 14.1n77.6w 13.6n78.1w 13.5n78.7w have been reevaluated&altered
14.6n76.6w 14.4n77.2w 13.9n77.8w 13.3n78.2w 12.7n78.4w 12.7n78.6w are now the most recent positions

PEU-PuertoLempira :: PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: PVA-Providencia :: ADZ-SanAndres :: ONX-Colon

The kinked line traces Invest99L's path as a closed low
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where 99L became TropicalDepressionEighteen
The next dot south-southwest is where TD.18 became TropicalStormSandy
The easternmost dot on the longest straight line is TS.Sandy's most recent position

The longest straight line is a straightline projection through TS.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline.
23Oct.12am: TS.Sandy had been heading toward passage 5.8miles(9.4kilometres)North of SanAndres

Click this link to my mapping on the GreatCirleMapper for more info
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
How close is Sandy to typhoon Tip in size this frame (Old)?



Technically, that's Nor"Sandy by then lol.
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Raw T# for Sandy is up to hurricane intensity.
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Wilma sucked! Put my house 5 feet under. No one was expecting the water to come over the keys like that. Not much wind. Water just came up. Rolled over the islands and went back down. Could care less about most of the stuff but lost some old photo albums. You never know what kinda effect these storms will have even if they are 150 miles away.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Recon isn't going back to Sandy until Wednesday? Surprising with watches up.


Recon is going in tomorrow.

Link
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(NON-TROPICAL MODEL)
00Z NAM INIT 23 OCT hr 036 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Speaking of the big W this is her first sat pic after sunrise. From a 70KT storm to one of the strongest canes to ever exist. Amazing what 1 night can do.
Ah, I remember nights like that from my youth. Sigh.
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Recon isn't going back to Sandy until Wednesday? Surprising with watches up.
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Actually, I rescind my previous statement, 19 isn't just looking a bit better, it's starting to look a lot better. And bigger.

And so is Sandy. *foreboding music playing*
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00Z NAM INIT 23 OCT hr 024 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Quoting wxchaser97:

And yet it probably won't reach me, as usual. -_______-


You might get a sprinkle or two. ;)
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Are those radio towers?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Organized line of thunderstorms crossing the lake and bearing down on SW Michigan.




And yet it probably won't reach me, as usual. -_______-
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Donuts!!!! Or independence day?.... oh my....

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Took the pup out for a walk. Nice and windy in Lake Worth. Winds will be increasing during the week.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
How close is Sandy to typhoon Tip in size this frame (Old)?



nooo..please models. Give some cold water with ice to them. or even pot
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Organized line of thunderstorms crossing the lake and bearing down on SW Michigan.



Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
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Quoting goalexgo:
Im in NJ...and Im buying batteries tomorrow. I cant handle 926 mb.


I live in the woods...I should but a tent, a chainsaw, generator, gas, oil, matches etc... so sad
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I wonder if I can get some of those zombies down town at fantasy fest to come help me trim up these coconut trees. Looks like its gonna be a mess if sandy comes close.
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Im in NJ...and Im buying batteries tomorrow. I cant handle 926 mb.
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Look 000000 no one paying attention.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A hurricane is still a storm btw. But yes I mean KTS not mph.


If we want to be ambiguous about, then yes. It's all good though. ;)
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
yes why would it go E for the next 12HR??
Quoting JRRP:

nop...
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(NON-TROPICAL MODEL)
00Z NAM INIT 23 OCT hr 012 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
(NON-TROPICAL MODEL)
00Z NAM INIT 23 OCT hr 009 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
226. JRRP
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The Model are E of the it

nop...
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(NON-TROPICAL MODEL)
00Z NAM INIT 23 OCT hr 006 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Quoting Slamguitar:


Do you mean 70mph? 70kts would be a hurricane.
A hurricane is still a storm btw. But yes I mean KTS not mph.
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(NON-TROPICAL MODEL)
00Z NAM INIT 23 OCT hr 000 TILL 84


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I have no problem with being wrong, and I have no problem admitted it unlike some people. *cough* Drew *cough*

If you two are going to start something, take it into chat.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looking healthy, Jamaicans & Cubans should be preparing for a hurricane if they aren't already.


It probably will be a hurricane or strong TS tomorrow.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Speaking of the big W this is her first sat pic after sunrise. From a 70KT storm to one of the strongest canes to ever exist. Amazing what 1 night can do.


Do you mean 70mph? 70kts would be a hurricane.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting MississippiWx:


Or in other words, to cover your back, you half expect both so you aren't wrong. Got it.


Absolute genius :D
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Or in other words, to cover your back, you half expect both so you aren't wrong. Got it.

I have no problem with being wrong, and I have no problem admitted it unlike some people. *cough* Drew *cough*
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Quoting AussieStorm:

WTH!!!! have they lost their minds. Who's next on there list, meteorologists if they make an inexact, incomplete and contradictory forecast. Sorry but Mother nature doesn't give blatant warning of what she's going to do, subtle hints that might not be noticed but not massive hints that really say, in 2hrs there will be a 6.5 quake. Shocking, just shocking.


Depressing aint the word...shocking IS more like. Like the middle ages a ruling like that :/
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While everyone is talking about Sandy (very impressive and dangerous, mind you), it looks like TD 19 - after flatulating earlier - is looking better:

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Quoting avthunder:
Oh no you didn't !!
Speaking of the big W this is her first sat pic after sunrise. From a 70KT storm to one of the strongest canes to ever exist. Amazing what 1 night can do.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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