99L south of Jamaica close to tropical depression status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:33 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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A tropical disturbance centered about 300 hundred miles south of Jamaica (Invest 99L) is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance is nearly stationary over very warm waters of 29.5°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that have a good degree of spin. These thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on visible satellite loops. There are no obvious signs of a surface circulation, but an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate 99L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday night. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there is strong model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents have collapsed, and 99L should move little today. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure to the north of 99L is expected to turn the storm to the north or north-northeast, which should put the storm in the vicinity of Jamaica on Wednesday and Eastern Cuba on Thursday. By Friday, 99L should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling 99L to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over 99L and force the storm to the west-northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. 99L will be capable of bringing heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 15 inches in mountainous areas, to Jamaica and Haiti, Monday night through Thursday. Heavy rains will begin on Tuesday in Eastern Cuba, and spread northwards into the Central and Eastern Bahamas by Wednesday. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can be expected in the Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic, Tuesday through Thursday.

Invest 90L in the middle Atlantic
A small low pressure system (Invest 90L) about 700 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is headed northward at about 10 mph. The disturbance has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and is struggling with cool, dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it is trying to form underneath. This upper-level low has provided 90L the spin it needs to become a tropical cyclone, though. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning. This may allow 90L to develop into a tropical cyclone before it encounters high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots on Wednesday. It's unlikely that 90L will affect any land areas. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 90L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

The next name on the list of Atlantic tropical storms for 2012 is Sandy.

Jeff Masters

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66. Patrap
6:19 PM GMT on October 25, 2012
Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

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65. Patrap
6:17 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks

Sandy

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


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64. Patrap
6:16 PM GMT on October 25, 2012
Hurricane Sandy,

RGB Loop

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63. reedzone
6:26 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
12Z EURO wayyy off the rest of the model guidance!
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62. stormpetrol
4:23 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Time: 16:12:30Z
Coordinates: 23.65N 87.05W
Acft. Static Air Press: 409.8 mb (~ 12.10 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,396 meters (~ 24,265 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 385 meters (~ 1,263 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 344° at 9 knots (From the NNW at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: -17.0°C (~ 1.4°F)
Dew Pt: -48.4°C (~ -55.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Recon well on the way
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60. kmanislander
3:37 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Good morning!!,trust your expert analysis!,in your opinion how close this system can get to South Florida,we have a huge Holloween Party this coming Saturday and it will be nice to know,if we have to make some preparation's,or cancel the party not at this point but based on the future track of potential Sandy,I believe we will be feeling some effect from this system not matter what track it takes,but if it move a little bit more West than the model are showing we can have a bigger problem in our hands here in Miami.Thank you!!!.


You're very kind but I am no "expert". Just another weather blogger :-).

You need to follow official announcements from the NHC and local agencies where you live as events unfold. As you know, the current NHC forecast has the system well off the Northern Bahamas on Saturday. This track forecast may be adjusted over time by the NHC so pay attention to any chnages they may make once the motion to the North commences.
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59. SFLWeatherman
3:35 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting Seflhurricane:
pls post when it comes out

Ok
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58. tramp96
3:34 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
What changes in the storm if it becomes subtropical?
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57. Seflhurricane
3:34 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z is now coming out!!
pls post when it comes out
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56. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:34 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
55. CaicosRetiredSailor
3:33 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
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54. SFLWeatherman
3:32 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
12Z is now coming out!!
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53. Progster
3:30 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting tramp96:

Since the Canadian has been right so far does that
mean it will continue to have the correct solutions in
the future? I know it is usually pretty wild in it's forecast.


like mutual funds, past performance is not a guarantee of future results
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
52. WunderGirl12
3:29 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Thanks Dr. Masters! Here is the forcasted track for Tropical Depression Eighteen.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-dayn l?large#contents
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51. LargoFl
3:26 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
..............................breezy and nice Here today
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50. LargoFl
3:25 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA
SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID
CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND
ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA
96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
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49. 7544
3:21 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
anyone think the cone may shift west when the hh goes in
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48. Hurricane1956
3:20 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like another season without an impact for southern FL....till next year, lets bring out the Christmas trees and wait for 2013.
Dr.Masters mention in his analysis that there is a probability of this system once it cross Cuba to move a little bit more West affecting the East Coast of the USA,so we have to wait and see we are not out of the woods yet.
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47. SuzK
3:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Can anyone please post future maps regarding a nor'easter in the Northeast from this new Caribbean system that may be Sandy. There are a few impressive low pressure systems on the maps I have seen. Thank you
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46. PalmBeachWeather
3:16 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Thank you Dr. Masters
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45. RitaEvac
3:15 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Looks like another season without an impact for southern FL....till next year, lets bring out the Christmas trees and wait for 2013.
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44. ncstorm
3:13 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15222
43. tramp96
3:13 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


The Canadian model, which has had the best handle on this system from the outset IMO, still shows a track just immediately off the Western tip of Jamaica. The NGP is slightly farther West than that and the GFDL also subscribes to a track between Grand Cayman and Jamaica and very close to Cayman Brac.

The NHC track forecast essentially mirrors the GFS.

TD 18 still has some motion to make towards the SW as seen in the steering map below potentially affecting the actual track solution once a Northward motion commences.


Since the Canadian has been right so far does that
mean it will continue to have the correct solutions in
the future? I know it is usually pretty wild in it's forecast.
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42. AztecCe
3:12 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Finaly got 18. Looks like models are shifting to east. Lets hope it says like that
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41. Hurricane1956
3:12 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


The Canadian model, which has had the best handle on this system from the outset IMO, still shows a track just immediately off the Western tip of Jamaica. The NGP is slightly farther West than that and the GFDL also subscribes to a track between Grand Cayman and Jamaica and very close to Cayman Brac.

The NHC track forecast essentially mirrors the GFS.

TD 18 still has some motion to make towards the SW as seen in the steering map below potentially affecting the actual track solution once a Northward motion commences.

Good morning!!,trust your expert analysis!,in your opinion how close this system can get to South Florida,we have a huge Holloween Party this coming Saturday and it will be nice to know,if we have to make some preparation's,or cancel the party not at this point but based on the future track of potential Sandy,I believe we will be feeling some effect from this system not matter what track it takes,but if it move a little bit more West than the model are showing we can have a bigger problem in our hands here in Miami.Thank you!!!.
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40. ncstorm
3:12 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
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39. Chucktown
3:10 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Once again, my reasoning from the previous blog.

This is not going to be a southeast US event. As the trough digs later this week, it will keep the system either moving north or even northeast for a while. It won't be until the trough itself goes negative this weekend and the trough axis becomes NW - SE oriented over the SE US. It is thereafter that if the system is still "within reach" and hasn't already moved too far NE, then there is a chance that it could be pulled back NW towards the Mid - Atlantic and NE US. Way too many variables and most likely if there is some sort of NE US impact, it will be transitioning from tropical to more of a nor'easter type storm.
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38. kmanislander
3:04 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
For what it's worth.
Latest NAM - Shows a shift to the East.


The Canadian model, which has had the best handle on this system from the outset IMO, still shows a track just immediately off the Western tip of Jamaica. The NGP is slightly farther West than that and the GFDL also subscribes to a track between Grand Cayman and Jamaica and very close to Cayman Brac.

The NHC track forecast essentially mirrors the GFS.

TD 18 still has some motion to make towards the SW as seen in the steering map below potentially affecting the actual track solution once a Northward motion commences.

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37. CybrTeddy
3:03 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think JAMAICA sould have been put under a hurricane watch not a TS watch


here why i said that

CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY


I am thinking it probably will be a hurricane by that time, depends on how much it intensifies today. For what it's worth, we've had at least once a year since 2007's Lorenzo and Humberto, a system strengthen from a TD to a Hurricane in 18 hours. Gustav in 2008, Ida in 2009, Paula in 2010, and Rina in 2011, and TD18 has a look to it that strikes me as familiar.
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36. LostTomorrows
3:02 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
We may see 19 before day's end. 90L is well-organized, and may even get a renumber this afternoon.

They seem to all come in twos this year.
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35. Bobbyweather
2:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Isn't it rare for a tropical cyclone to transition into a subtropical cyclone? (Well, recently Lee 2011 and Nadine 2012 have done so, but I can't find any other storms)
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34. Sfloridacat5
2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
For what it's worth.
Latest NAM - Shows a shift to the East.
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33. Tazmanian
2:53 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
i think JAMAICA sould have been put under a hurricane watch not a TS watch


here why i said that

CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY
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32. CybrTeddy
2:53 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
NHC thinking 60kts before landfall in Cuba, and subtropical in the Bahamas. This makes sense.
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31. stormchaser19
2:52 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
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30. Bobbyweather
2:52 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Interesting...
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W...SUBTROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
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29. GeorgiaStormz
2:52 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Okay, I have a question.
Let's say there were more than 10 invests (although almost impossible). Then what happens? There may be two 90Ls! How do we solve this situation?


We run for the hills.
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28. GeorgiaStormz
2:51 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
So..

if this DOES come up to the NE as a noreaster but is named Sandy originally by the NHC , will TWC override the NHC and name it ATHENA??..talk about confusion..


Sandathena.
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27. stormchaser19
2:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221449
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
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26. Bobbyweather
2:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
NHC issuing advisories on TD EIGHTEEN...
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25. RitaEvac
2:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Okay, I have a question.
Let's say there were more than 10 invests (although almost impossible). Then what happens? There may be two 90Ls! How do we solve this situation?


90LI and 90LII
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
24. GeorgiaStormz
2:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is a very big weekend for me and the family and I'm not about to have a storm named.....Sandy ruin it for me.To much money has gone into this!.Well I have the hot co co and holloween ready!.


What if it is the snow you asked for all year?
Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it :)

Seriously though, it would be amazing if it snowed up there.
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23. TheOnlyBravesFan
2:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Thank you Dr. Masters. Those lows are looking pretty good.
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22. aspectre
2:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
1 CybrTeddy: NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al182012.ren
We have Tropical Depression 18.

Premature. The NHC hasn't called it on its Advisory, nor has it publicly posted its ATCF AL18 file

All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for Invest99L @ 22Oct.12pm
Since the previous mapping:
99L's StormStatus between 21Oct.12am and 22Oct.12am has been reevaluated&altered from DisturBance to (closed)LOw
14.6n77.7w was reevaluated&altered to
14.5n77.5w-14.3n77.9w which in turn was reevaluated&altered to
14.4n77.2w-14.1n77.6w-13.7n77.9w as the now most recent positions

PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: PVA-Providencia :: ADZ-SanAndres :: BOC-Bocas del Toro :: ONX-Colon

The shorter connected lines trace 99L's path since becoming a closed low

The longest line is a straightline projection through 99L's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline.
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21. Bobbyweather
2:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Okay, I have a question.
Let's say there were more than 10 invests (although almost impossible). Then what happens? There may be two 90Ls! How do we solve this situation?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
20. washingtonian115
2:47 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:




so is 90L
i feel ya Taz.90L should have had it's percentages raised.

ncsorm I've been thinking about that as well.I hope they don't as that will cause confusion and don't get me started on the names...
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19. ncstorm
2:47 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
So..

if this DOES come up to the NE as a noreaster but is named Sandy originally by the NHC , will TWC override the NHC and name it ATHENA??..talk about confusion..
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18. Tazmanian
2:46 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well organized.




so is 90L
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17. CybrTeddy
2:45 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Well organized.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23927
16. stormchaser19
2:44 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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