Caribbean disturbance 99L a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2012

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A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are beginning to show some organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday. The Dominican Republic may also see some heavy rains, though not as great. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will approaching the Eastern U.S., and the GFS and ECMWF models predict that this trough will turn 99L to the north, bringing the storm into the southeast Bahama Islands on Thursday or Friday. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning. I put these odds higher, at 40%. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 99L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Invest 90L in the middle Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. The disturbance has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and has gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system. This upper-level low is pumping cool, dry air into the disturbance, which will keep any development slow over the next few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, but is forecast to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Sunday through Monday. This may allow for some slow development of 90L before it encounters very high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots on Tuesday and Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models develop 90L into a tropical cyclone. It's unlikely that 90L will affect any land areas. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
Atlantik tropikal hava görünüm


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202333
TWOAT

TROPİK HAVA GÖRÜNÜM
NWS ULUSAL KASIRGA MERKEZİ MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SAT 20 EKİM 2012

KUZEY ATLANTİK İÇİN...KARAYİP DENİZİ VE MEKSİKA KÖRFEZİ...

UYDU GÖRÜNTÜLERİ SAĞANAK VE GÖK GÜRÜLTÜLÜ İLİŞKİLENDİRİLMİŞ OLDUĞUNU GÖSTERİR
TROPİKAL DALGA ÜZERİNDE MERKEZ KARAYİP DENİZİ DEĞİŞTİ
ORGANİZASYON SIRASINDA SON BİRKAÇ SAAT İÇİNDE ÇOK AZ. ANCAK...
YÜZEY BASINÇLARI BÖLGEDE ALÇAK...VE ÇEVRE
KOŞULLAR TROPİKAL BİR VESİLE OLMASI BEKLENEN
ÖNÜMÜZDEKİ BİRKAÇ GÜN BOYUNCA DAHA FAZLA DEPRESYON FORMU İÇİN. BU SİSTEM VAR
YÜKSEK BİR ŞANS...YÜZDE 60'INI...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT YAVAŞ BATIYA DOĞRU DALGA HAMLE OLARAK. AĞIR YAĞMUR
BU RAHATSIZLIK YA DA OLASI TROPİKAL SİKLON OLASILIĞI VARDIR
JAMAİKA YAYILDI...DOĞU KÜBA...VE SONRAKİ İÇİNDE HISPANIOLA
BİRKAÇ GÜN. BU YAĞMURLAR YAŞAMI TEHDİT EDEN FLASH ÜRETMEK OLABİLİR
SELLER VE ÇAMUR SLAYTLAR...ÖZELLİKLE ÇEVRE ALANLARINDA YÜKSEK ARAZİ.

CLOUDINESS VE FIRTINALI ORTALANMIŞ YAKLAŞIK 1000 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST LEEWARD ADALARI İLE İLİŞKİLİ BİR
ÜST DÜZEY DÜŞÜK TROPİKAL BİR DALGA İLE ETKİLEŞİM. BU FAALİYET VARDIR
BİRAZ DAHA İYİ HALE GEÇMİŞ BİRKAÇ SAAT DÜZENLENEN...
ÜST DÜZEY RÜZGARLAR BİRAZ DAHA ELVERİŞLİ IÇIN HALİNE GELEBİLİR
GELİŞTİRME SIRASINDA ERTESİ GÜN YA DA ÖYLE BU SİSTEM BİR ORTA VARDIR
ŞANS...YÜZDE 30'U...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT OLARAK BT HAMLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD YÖNÜ 10 MİL.

BAŞKA BİR YERDE...TROPİK FIRTINA OLUŞUMU SIRASINDA BEKLENEN DEĞİL
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT.

$$
TAHMİNCİSİ BEVEN


I guess I have to tell them cloudiness is bulutluluk.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
no one said anything about the Epac...that's the hurricane to become in a couple of days I've been talking about

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
JFV "thummped",

Again.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Thank You WU Admin.
Is he finally gone?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
Quoting Grothar:


We have to write off blog sometime. I know a few of those. I can help you with your German if you ever need it.


I'll love if you could...I just never took a course in High school because my schedule was full.
You know it really well then.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Patrap:
Atlantik tropikal hava görünüm


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202333
TWOAT

TROPİK HAVA GÖRÜNÜM
NWS ULUSAL KASIRGA MERKEZİ MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SAT 20 EKİM 2012

KUZEY ATLANTİK İÇİN...KARAYİP DENİZİ VE MEKSİKA KÖRFEZİ...

UYDU GÖRÜNTÜLERİ SAĞANAK VE GÖK GÜRÜLTÜLÜ İLİŞKİLENDİRİLMİŞ OLDUĞUNU GÖSTERİR
TROPİKAL DALGA ÜZERİNDE MERKEZ KARAYİP DENİZİ DEĞİŞTİ
ORGANİZASYON SIRASINDA SON BİRKAÇ SAAT İÇİNDE ÇOK AZ. ANCAK...
YÜZEY BASINÇLARI BÖLGEDE ALÇAK...VE ÇEVRE
KOŞULLAR TROPİKAL BİR VESİLE OLMASI BEKLENEN
ÖNÜMÜZDEKİ BİRKAÇ GÜN BOYUNCA DAHA FAZLA DEPRESYON FORMU İÇİN. BU SİSTEM VAR
YÜKSEK BİR ŞANS...YÜZDE 60'INI...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT YAVAŞ BATIYA DOĞRU DALGA HAMLE OLARAK. AĞIR YAĞMUR
BU RAHATSIZLIK YA DA OLASI TROPİKAL SİKLON OLASILIĞI VARDIR
JAMAİKA YAYILDI...DOĞU KÜBA...VE SONRAKİ İÇİNDE HISPANIOLA
BİRKAÇ GÜN. BU YAĞMURLAR YAŞAMI TEHDİT EDEN FLASH ÜRETMEK OLABİLİR
SELLER VE ÇAMUR SLAYTLAR...ÖZELLİKLE ÇEVRE ALANLARINDA YÜKSEK ARAZİ.

CLOUDINESS VE FIRTINALI ORTALANMIŞ YAKLAŞIK 1000 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST LEEWARD ADALARI İLE İLİŞKİLİ BİR
ÜST DÜZEY DÜŞÜK TROPİKAL BİR DALGA İLE ETKİLEŞİM. BU FAALİYET VARDIR
BİRAZ DAHA İYİ HALE GEÇMİŞ BİRKAÇ SAAT DÜZENLENEN...
ÜST DÜZEY RÜZGARLAR BİRAZ DAHA ELVERİŞLİ IÇIN HALİNE GELEBİLİR
GELİŞTİRME SIRASINDA ERTESİ GÜN YA DA ÖYLE BU SİSTEM BİR ORTA VARDIR
ŞANS...YÜZDE 30'U...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT OLARAK BT HAMLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD YÖNÜ 10 MİL.

BAŞKA BİR YERDE...TROPİK FIRTINA OLUŞUMU SIRASINDA BEKLENEN DEĞİL
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT.

$$
TAHMİNCİSİ BEVEN


cool...I don't recognize that language though.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hug! I thought no one read that comment..thanks for asking by the way.

Io parlo Italiano
Yo hablo español
English (obviously)
Je parle français
linguam Latinam dico


all of those...learning Arabic and then German (maybe) and some more later


We have to write off blog sometime. I know a few of those. I can help you with your German if you ever need it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Even sometimes the 2 AM TWO has been released between 1:00-1:30 AM EDT.


right...when there is nothing to talk about..at the 2 AM update they do it at 1 AM one time I sat them releasing it at 12:25 AM!!!

NHC people just want to get over things
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Thank You WU Admin.




thank you? WU admin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z HWRF takes the system passed 80 West before looping back around and heading Northeast.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L RainBowTop Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting Grothar:


By the way, just interested, what languages do you speak?


hug! I thought no one read that comment..thanks for asking by the way.

Io parlo Italiano
Yo hablo español
English (obviously)
Je parle français
linguam Latinam dico


all of those...learning Arabic and then German (maybe) and some more later
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
For those wondering how 90L its getting better organized...I did a detailed synopsis on it (as well as 99L) as of 6 PM using 1800Z data. Their are two Figures in that post for 90L to help explain because frankly...90L is more complex in structure than 99L....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 526 Comments: 3706
Atlantik tropikal hava görünüm


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202333
TWOAT

TROPİK HAVA GÖRÜNÜM
NWS ULUSAL KASIRGA MERKEZİ MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SAT 20 EKİM 2012

KUZEY ATLANTİK İÇİN...KARAYİP DENİZİ VE MEKSİKA KÖRFEZİ...

UYDU GÖRÜNTÜLERİ SAĞANAK VE GÖK GÜRÜLTÜLÜ İLİŞKİLENDİRİLMİŞ OLDUĞUNU GÖSTERİR
TROPİKAL DALGA ÜZERİNDE MERKEZ KARAYİP DENİZİ DEĞİŞTİ
ORGANİZASYON SIRASINDA SON BİRKAÇ SAAT İÇİNDE ÇOK AZ. ANCAK...
YÜZEY BASINÇLARI BÖLGEDE ALÇAK...VE ÇEVRE
KOŞULLAR TROPİKAL BİR VESİLE OLMASI BEKLENEN
ÖNÜMÜZDEKİ BİRKAÇ GÜN BOYUNCA DAHA FAZLA DEPRESYON FORMU İÇİN. BU SİSTEM VAR
YÜKSEK BİR ŞANS...YÜZDE 60'INI...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT YAVAŞ BATIYA DOĞRU DALGA HAMLE OLARAK. AĞIR YAĞMUR
BU RAHATSIZLIK YA DA OLASI TROPİKAL SİKLON OLASILIĞI VARDIR
JAMAİKA YAYILDI...DOĞU KÜBA...VE SONRAKİ İÇİNDE HISPANIOLA
BİRKAÇ GÜN. BU YAĞMURLAR YAŞAMI TEHDİT EDEN FLASH ÜRETMEK OLABİLİR
SELLER VE ÇAMUR SLAYTLAR...ÖZELLİKLE ÇEVRE ALANLARINDA YÜKSEK ARAZİ.

CLOUDINESS VE FIRTINALI ORTALANMIŞ YAKLAŞIK 1000 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST LEEWARD ADALARI İLE İLİŞKİLİ BİR
ÜST DÜZEY DÜŞÜK TROPİKAL BİR DALGA İLE ETKİLEŞİM. BU FAALİYET VARDIR
BİRAZ DAHA İYİ HALE GEÇMİŞ BİRKAÇ SAAT DÜZENLENEN...
ÜST DÜZEY RÜZGARLAR BİRAZ DAHA ELVERİŞLİ IÇIN HALİNE GELEBİLİR
GELİŞTİRME SIRASINDA ERTESİ GÜN YA DA ÖYLE BU SİSTEM BİR ORTA VARDIR
ŞANS...YÜZDE 30'U...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT OLARAK BT HAMLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD YÖNÜ 10 MİL.

BAŞKA BİR YERDE...TROPİK FIRTINA OLUŞUMU SIRASINDA BEKLENEN DEĞİL
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT.

$$
TAHMİNCİSİ BEVEN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


many times it is out by 7:40 - 7:50 PM or even 7:30 PM...so you don't really have to wait until 8 on the dot...


Even sometimes the 2 AM TWO has been released between 1:00-1:30 AM EDT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank You WU Admin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I thought it didn't come out until 8?


many times it is out by 7:40 - 7:50 PM or even 7:30 PM...so you don't really have to wait until 8 on the dot...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you did go to to the NHC site to make sure you were right prior to pick? still 60%


By the way, just interested, what languages do you speak?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you did go to to the NHC site to make sure right prior to pick? still 60%


I thought it didn't come out until 8?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

LOL...you are correct...sorry to imply otherwise...

I kinda said that to differentiate the distinction between the two types of cyclones for those that are lurking...learning...etc...


it's alright. Don't worry bro.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Still at 60%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I'll go with b


you did go to to the NHC site to make sure you were right prior to pick? still 60%
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


When someone says to you cyclone...that does not mean tropical.
I did not specify...so you can't say I'm wrong

LOL...you are correct...sorry to imply otherwise...

I kinda said that to differentiate the distinction between the two types of cyclones for those that are lurking...learning...etc...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 526 Comments: 3706
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

Thanx Taz, she had 5 puppies the night of Hurricane Issac, that was the night of 28 Aug to Morning the 29th.

Published on Sep 3, 2012 by patrap

NOLA Roux delivering her Pups during Hurricane Issac, around 2 am Weds morning here in New Orleans. She delivered 4 here already with the last to come soon after this was filmed.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Well, I said one would stay the same and one would go up by 10%. Just got them switched around.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will 99L be at 8PM
A. 50%
B. 60%
C. 70%
D. 80%
E. 90%

I say C or D


I'll go with b
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Yes...its a cyclone alright...but a non-tropical one that used to be tropical.

Tropical: A surface cyclone supported by t-storm latent heat release...which creates a warm core upper ridge that ventilates it

Non-tropical: A surface cyclone supported by divergence ahead of a cold core upper trough or vortex...


When someone says to you cyclone...that does not mean tropical.
I did not specify...so you can't say I'm wrong
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting LargoFl:
north of Tampa bay,down in the 40's..............



I just went running in this weather, absolutely perfect weather, if there was ever a time to vacation in Florida it would be now.


I just drove down to South Florida today to check out a car, its amazing how flooded it is down there, I saw a sea of blue under pine forests with cat tails growing in it, when I last went to south Florida, which was last Fall, it was much drier down there, much drier, its great to see the much needed hydrologic recovery in Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Nola Roux





how cute
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nola Roux

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


does that mean Rafael is still somewhat a cyclone? No chances for coming back as people here said earlier

Yes...its a cyclone alright...but a non-tropical one that used to be tropical.

Tropical: A surface cyclone supported by t-storm latent heat release...which creates a warm core upper ridge that ventilates it

Non-tropical: A surface cyclone supported by divergence ahead of a cold core upper trough or vortex...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 526 Comments: 3706
Fat wave off of Africa.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17481
The Last Pup, pick of Nola Roux's Hurricane Issac born litter today in the park.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Not moments ago, but earlier this afternoon. Almost reached X class territory.



Thanks for the correction. I guess that's why no one is mentioning it right now since that's already discussed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
Evening everyone. 99L looks like it will be the center of attention over the coming week as it tries to become Sandy. Satellite imagery reveals 99L is still an open wave, however, it is a very healthy one at that. Convection is intense and present in all quadrants (despite being heavily weighted to the east) which is a good sign of a moist and unstable environment. Upper level winds are light and anticyclonic while trade wind flow remains light. These favorable conditions lead me to believe this could be a depression by Sunday evening or Monday morning at the latest, like the statistical models show.

Beyond that time I believe it will hang around as a weak to moderate TS for the next few days. An upper level trough feature will amplify to the west of the storm which will bring upper convergence and shear to the storm preventing significant intensification. Although there is "jet fuel" below, the environment above is what will keep potential Sandy from bombing out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Almost a X-class.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
If I'm reading this right, we had a M-class solar flare a moment ago.

@wxbrad

View of the M-9 Class solar flare minutes ago. http://twitpic.com/b5ynun #spacewx #fb

Not moments ago, but earlier this afternoon. Almost reached X class territory.



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7941
92C was discontinued but ... they kept talking about it a 8 AM HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1.a weak surface low about 965 miles south-southwest of Lihue is moving west slowly. Isolated thunderstorms, currently present at the periphery of the low, will remain disorganized. There is a low chance, near 0 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

I don't see the circle on the graphic though.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
60% and 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will 99L be at 8PM
A. 50%
B. 60%
C. 70%
D. 80%
E. 90%

I say C or D

I'm going to go with C.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
What will 90L be at 8 PM.

A-30%
B-40%
C-50%
D-60%
E-Higher
F-Lower than 30%

I say A.

I say A or B.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
If I'm reading this right, we had a M-class solar flare a moment ago.

@wxbrad

View of the M-9 Class solar flare minutes ago. http://twitpic.com/b5ynun #spacewx #fb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
forget the initial track
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting opal92nwf:

If it happened to, I'd probably expect an Ida type intensity situation.


I'll take it more like Paloma 2008. Conditions are good for a cat 4
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not that much and sst have cooled in the gulf as well so don't expect a cat 3 or 4 coming for you.They would have to move at a pretty good clip.

If it happened to, I'd probably expect an Ida type intensity situation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I think they are just doing due diligence in tracking the remnants of Rafael...don't they always track a tropical system until its bitter end?


does that mean Rafael is still somewhat a cyclone? No chances for coming back as people here said earlier
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Still more to come...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


OFFICIAL NCH2009 OUTLOOK ON SLAMGUITAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OUTLOOK

80% chance of being correct...


I'll take those odds.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
What will 90L be at 8 PM.

A-30%
B-40%
C-50%
D-60%
E-Higher
F-Lower than 30%

I say A.
b
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will 99L be at 8PM
A. 50%
B. 60%
C. 70%
D. 80%
E. 90%

I say C or D
b
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and something else just happened...

6.6 Mwp - VANUATU

Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude 6.6 Mwp
Date-Time
20 Oct 2012 23:00:32 UTC
21 Oct 2012 10:00:32 near epicenter
20 Oct 2012 18:00:32 standard time in your timezone
Location 13.572S 166.594E
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.