Caribbean disturbance 99L a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2012

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A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are beginning to show some organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday. The Dominican Republic may also see some heavy rains, though not as great. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will approaching the Eastern U.S., and the GFS and ECMWF models predict that this trough will turn 99L to the north, bringing the storm into the southeast Bahama Islands on Thursday or Friday. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning. I put these odds higher, at 40%. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 99L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Invest 90L in the middle Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. The disturbance has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and has gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system. This upper-level low is pumping cool, dry air into the disturbance, which will keep any development slow over the next few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, but is forecast to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Sunday through Monday. This may allow for some slow development of 90L before it encounters very high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots on Tuesday and Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models develop 90L into a tropical cyclone. It's unlikely that 90L will affect any land areas. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


OK, what type of accent do I have then?


A German one. Duh.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


In 50 years I'll be in my 70s (by nature) not really sure If I'll go that far. But by then everything would be very advanced. Like in the movie Wall-E (not having that many fat people) ...lol


Good chance you will be around. Not so sure about a wall-e world though... I will be in my 90's and that would break my bloodline longevity record.

Just remember to keep learning, they can fix just about everything else.
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Quoting 12george1:

Nope, that was your 2014th post


well I made two more posts after and it changed...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


How do you know I haven't?


OK, what type of accent do I have then?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
yeeee!!! My 2012th post!!!!!!!

by the way..who keeps track of these?


I'm at 19,376, you need to catch up. ;)
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
yeeee!!! My 2012th post!!!!!!!

by the way..who keeps track of these?

Nope, that was your 2014th post
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Quoting Grothar:


How do you know, you've never heard me speak. lol


How do you know I haven't?
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Quoting Dakster:


I will be dead in 50 years.... Tell me when you join the dead how it went.


In 50 years I'll be in my 70s (by nature) not really sure If I'll go that far. But by then everything would be very advanced. Like in the movie Wall-E (not having that many fat people) ...lol
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah... I don't see it getting that strong, not even close. I think a peak of a category 1 is way more likely.


I will never again be intimidated by the pressure...Isaac 968's changed my view of it. I agree with you becoming cat 1 maybe 2
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595. Skyepony (Mod)
Better look at part of 90L ASCAT
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


completely terrible...they have to make it be a expert translating but no software can translate better than us...however wait another 50 years to see these change.


I will be dead in 50 years.... Tell me when you join the dead how it went.
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yeeee!!! My 2012th post!!!!!!!

by the way..who keeps track of these?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hard to say, that's the last frame on the 18z run. Most likely it would stay more out to sea with a trough coming in though.


This is the time of year for trofs out to sea. Lookout Bermuda?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFDL. That's 950mb:


Yeah... I don't see it getting that strong, not even close. I think a peak of a category 1 is way more likely.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting Dakster:


And headed right for South Carolina... Dang, cat 3/4 right?

Hard to say, that's the last frame on the 18z run. Most likely it would stay more out to sea with a trough coming in though.
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Quoting Dakster:


Yeah, it will let you sorta understand what has been said, but writing back not so good..l it's English to Arabic is quite awful.


completely terrible...they have to make it be a expert translating but no software can translate better than us...however wait another 50 years to see these change.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


But you do.


How do you know, you've never heard me speak. lol
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I had to do what when trying to talk with that girl I talked about but google doesn't do a great job either.


Yeah, it will let you sorta understand what has been said, but writing back not so good..l it's English to Arabic is quite awful.
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586. Skyepony (Mod)
Partial fresh ASCAT of wave in the Central Atlantic.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFDL. That's 950mb:



personally I hate when these models go like that, why do they overdo things.
Watch tomorrow be 935 or 920.
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Latest intensity models.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFDL. That's 950mb:



And headed right for South Carolina... Dang, cat 3/4 right?
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Quoting Dakster:
I see that. Google translator app at the ready, just in case.

Write away.... In whatever language floats your boat.


I had to do what when trying to talk with that girl I talked about but google doesn't do a great job either.
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I see that. Google translator app at the ready, just in case.

Write away.... In whatever language floats your boat.
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Quoting Grothar:


So do I. :P j/k


But you do.
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18z GFDL. That's 950mb:

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Quoting Grothar:


It's international night. Just waiting to see what 99L does. Keep your shutters ready.


I don't expect renumbering at any time soon. But I never know
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Quoting Dakster:


Need a towel to clean up?


It's international night. Just waiting to see what 99L does. Keep your shutters ready.
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Quoting Grothar:


No, No, pero casi. Estoy jubilado ahora.


Need a towel to clean up?
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8 PM Special Feature Discussion for 90L:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N48W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 17N46W TO
13N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1536 UTC OSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS
THE LOW CENTER WELL. A STRONG WIND FIELD WITH E TO NE WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT...IS WELL N OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS
AREA CLOSELY MIRRORS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 40W-51W AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N50W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

8 PM Special Feature Discussion for 99L:

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS FROM 20N75W TO A 1007
MB LOW AT 15N73W TO 12N72W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MAXIMUM VALUES OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
69W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-74W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTERED IS OVER THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14246
Quoting sunlinepr:
Gro: La verdad que usted es un General...


No, pero casi. Estoy jubilado ahora.
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573. JRRP
Quoting GTcooliebai:
18z HWRF takes the system passed 80 West before looping back around and heading Northeast.


a bit more east on this run
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Pre-Shary '10:



90L:

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Quoting aspiring2012:
Don't think anybodies posted the 800PM, I'll just do it :)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

2. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



wow...you're so late!!!!!!

I didn't even bother to post it...like 50 people did already 20 minutes ago
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Quoting Grothar:


It was,Pat. But I'm a little rusty in it now. Every once in awhile I "scratch" out a few words.


I got a Wu mail from the Mayan Mother ship.

They are NOT happy folks and well, they are on schedule for the Solstice Arrival.

Something about more Gumbo being needed as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128243
Quoting KoritheMan:


My zone manager is German. Speaks rather good English, too.


So do I. :P j/k
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Don't think anybodies posted the 800PM, I'll just do it :)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

2. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting Patrap:
I thought you learned Sumerian first Gro ?


ACK!!!




It was,Pat. But I'm a little rusty in it now. Every once in awhile I "scratch" out a few words.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes, being German I should. :) Even though I was born in the US, English is really my third language. We were raised mostly in Europe.


Ohh..I see
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Quoting Grothar:


We have to write off blog sometime. I know a few of those. I can help you with your German if you ever need it.


well...let me get off topic for a sec with you..
There was this pretty girl in my former school, she was German but she didn't Speak English so much and people had a hard time understanding what she wanted to say. Since she sat next to me in math I was often asked to help her and eventually I felt in love with her but I never told her because I din't think she was going to leave back to Germany. I was upset for few days. Good thing we became friends in Facebook. But we have a hard time communicating. She now knows I liked her.

ok...sorry you guys.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes, being German I should. :) Even though I was born in the US, English is really my third language. We were raised mostly in Europe.


My zone manager is German. Speaks rather good English, too.
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Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities by GFS Ensembles:



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I thought you learned Sumerian first Gro ?


ACK!!!


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128243
Quoting Jedkins01:



I just went running in this weather, absolutely perfect weather, if there was ever a time to vacation in Florida it would be now.


I just drove down to South Florida today to check out a car, its amazing how flooded it is down there, I saw a sea of blue under pine forests with cat tails growing in it, when I last went to south Florida, which was last Fall, it was much drier down there, much drier, its great to see the much needed hydrologic recovery in Florida.


Hey Jed...

These much lower dew points are very much welcomed. 99L has me concerned a bit but we'll see.

Take a look at this..

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I'll love if you could...I just never took a course in High school because my schedule was full.
You know it really well then.


Yes, being German I should. :) Even though I was born in the US, English is really my third language. We were raised mostly in Europe.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Be carefull, maybe it is prohibited here to post in the

GÜRÜLTÜLÜ İLİŞKİLENDİRİLMİŞ language..... ;)


Nah, Turkish is one of my fav's actually,along with their Bath's as well.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128243
Quoting txjac:


Planning on working at the UN? Impressive!


who can store so much in the brain right???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As Dr. Masters mentions,the threat is a real one to the Islands.

"A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are beginning to show some organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday."


99L WV Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128243
Gro: La verdad que usted es un General...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
555. txjac
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hug! I thought no one read that comment..thanks for asking by the way.

Io parlo Italiano
Yo hablo español
English (obviously)
Je parle français
linguam Latinam dico


all of those...learning Arabic and then German (maybe) and some more later


Planning on working at the UN? Impressive!
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Quoting Patrap:
Atlantik tropikal hava görünüm


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202333
TWOAT

TROPİK HAVA GÖRÜNÜM
NWS ULUSAL KASIRGA MERKEZİ MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SAT 20 EKİM 2012

KUZEY ATLANTİK İÇİN...KARAYİP DENİZİ VE MEKSİKA KÖRFEZİ...

UYDU GÖRÜNTÜLERİ SAĞANAK VE GÖK GÜRÜLTÜLÜ İLİŞKİLENDİRİLMİŞ OLDUĞUNU GÖSTERİR
TROPİKAL DALGA ÜZERİNDE MERKEZ KARAYİP DENİZİ DEĞİŞTİ
ORGANİZASYON SIRASINDA SON BİRKAÇ SAAT İÇİNDE ÇOK AZ. ANCAK...
YÜZEY BASINÇLARI BÖLGEDE ALÇAK...VE ÇEVRE
KOŞULLAR TROPİKAL BİR VESİLE OLMASI BEKLENEN
ÖNÜMÜZDEKİ BİRKAÇ GÜN BOYUNCA DAHA FAZLA DEPRESYON FORMU İÇİN. BU SİSTEM VAR
YÜKSEK BİR ŞANS...YÜZDE 60'INI...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT YAVAŞ BATIYA DOĞRU DALGA HAMLE OLARAK. AĞIR YAĞMUR
BU RAHATSIZLIK YA DA OLASI TROPİKAL SİKLON OLASILIĞI VARDIR
JAMAİKA YAYILDI...DOĞU KÜBA...VE SONRAKİ İÇİNDE HISPANIOLA
BİRKAÇ GÜN. BU YAĞMURLAR YAŞAMI TEHDİT EDEN FLASH ÜRETMEK OLABİLİR
SELLER VE ÇAMUR SLAYTLAR...ÖZELLİKLE ÇEVRE ALANLARINDA YÜKSEK ARAZİ.

CLOUDINESS VE FIRTINALI ORTALANMIŞ YAKLAŞIK 1000 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST LEEWARD ADALARI İLE İLİŞKİLİ BİR
ÜST DÜZEY DÜŞÜK TROPİKAL BİR DALGA İLE ETKİLEŞİM. BU FAALİYET VARDIR
BİRAZ DAHA İYİ HALE GEÇMİŞ BİRKAÇ SAAT DÜZENLENEN...
ÜST DÜZEY RÜZGARLAR BİRAZ DAHA ELVERİŞLİ IÇIN HALİNE GELEBİLİR
GELİŞTİRME SIRASINDA ERTESİ GÜN YA DA ÖYLE BU SİSTEM BİR ORTA VARDIR
ŞANS...YÜZDE 30'U...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT OLARAK BT HAMLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD YÖNÜ 10 MİL.

BAŞKA BİR YERDE...TROPİK FIRTINA OLUŞUMU SIRASINDA BEKLENEN DEĞİL
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT.

$$
TAHMİNCİSİ BEVEN


I guess I have to tell them cloudiness is bulutluluk.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.