Caribbean disturbance 99L a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2012

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A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are beginning to show some organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday. The Dominican Republic may also see some heavy rains, though not as great. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will approaching the Eastern U.S., and the GFS and ECMWF models predict that this trough will turn 99L to the north, bringing the storm into the southeast Bahama Islands on Thursday or Friday. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning. I put these odds higher, at 40%. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 99L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Invest 90L in the middle Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. The disturbance has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and has gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system. This upper-level low is pumping cool, dry air into the disturbance, which will keep any development slow over the next few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, but is forecast to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Sunday through Monday. This may allow for some slow development of 90L before it encounters very high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots on Tuesday and Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models develop 90L into a tropical cyclone. It's unlikely that 90L will affect any land areas. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Dakster:


Weren't you there when the Hawaiian islands formed too?


Only the last one. I'm not that old. But I do remember them being called the Hawaiian Island.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting Grothar:


Hey barb, you are probably too young to remember, but back in 1963, a volcano erupted in the ocean right there and became and island in a few weeks. I think it was called Surtsey or something.


I really don't remember by myself, Gro (I was two or three years old back then, lol). But I've read about Surtsey in connection with the El Hierro stuff earlier this year (and this submarine volcano isn't done either, there is still some shaking in this region of the Canaries; I follow it occasionally).
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99-L has even less t-storms...but its surface low is getting even better defined still (near 72.5W-15N)...
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Wow, it feels nice outside! I think I might go for a race against a Prius. Last time I did it was a pretty close race, but I could only walk so fast.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting KoritheMan:


No we're not. At least I'm not. As soon as he spoke the first insult, 'twas war!

Uhm, I'm pretty sure you started the insulting first several months ago, boy.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
The structure is excellent!
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Quoting Grothar:


So what you are saying is, that all the other funny things I posted over the years, weren't that funny??? :)


What other funny things? ;)
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey barb, you are probably too young to remember, but back in 1963, a volcano erupted in the ocean right there and became and island in a few weeks. I think it was called Surtsey or something. The only reason I remember it, was it happened the same week as the death of President Kennedy.

A ships captain saw smoke and thought a ship was on fire. When he got there he saw the volcano shooting up from the water. I will have to go look it up.


Weren't you there when the Hawaiian islands formed too?
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696. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting barbamz:
Sorry, totally OT, but there's a big swarm of quakes happening in northern Iceland right now; maybe something volcanic is just starting to "getting a life", lol.


Source/Link.


Not showing on the USGS map .. what site are you using??

Edit : meant is that a local site ??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31392
Quoting KoritheMan:


No we're not. At least I'm not. As soon as he spoke the first insult, 'twas war!


Who are you kidding, Kori. You would give him your left kidney if he needed it and you know it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I just noticed that also. Very bizarre. Maybe a sign of volcanic activity to come?


Maybe; though there are always a lot of quakes in this region, this amount of quakes is unusual. People are reporting the shaking. But it's very deep in the night --- doh, 3.30 am in Germany already. Will take some time to get any reliable news.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No we're not. At least I'm not. As soon as he spoke the first insult, 'twas war!


It's good to see someone with common sense on here! :D
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Gro, you're last blog remains the funniest thing ever posted on this site.


So what you are saying is, that all the other funny things I posted over the years, weren't that funny??? :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Wax chaser- I know, but I have been teasing him all night, so I had to throw him a compliment.... All of the young weather enthusiasts here are great.

Grothar said it perfect in post 687.
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Quoting Grothar:
TA, you know we think the world of you. We're just having fun. You always provide good information and analyses for all of us. We all appreciate it. Dang, look at what they do to me on here!!! I hope you know we are just joshing.


No we're not. At least I'm not. As soon as he spoke the first insult, 'twas war!
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Quoting barbamz:
Sorry, totally OT, but there's a big swarm of quakes happening in northern Iceland right now; maybe something volcanic is just starting to "getting a life", lol.


Source/Link.


Hey barb, you are probably too young to remember, but back in 1963, a volcano erupted in the ocean right there and became and island in a few weeks. I think it was called Surtsey or something. The only reason I remember it, was it happened the same week as the death of President Kennedy.

A ships captain saw smoke and thought a ship was on fire. When he got there he saw the volcano shooting up from the water. I will have to go look it up.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting Grothar:
TA, you know we think the world of you. We're just having fun. You always provide good information and analyses for all of us. We all appreciate it. Dang, look at what they do to me on here!!! I hope you know we are just joshing.

Gro, you're last blog remains the funniest thing ever posted on this site.
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TA, you know we think the world of you. We're just having fun. You always provide good information and analyses for all of us. We all appreciate it. Dang, look at what they do to me on here!!! I hope you know we are just joshing.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53835
Quoting barbamz:
Sorry, totally OT, but there's a big swarm of quakes happening in northern Iceland right now.


I just noticed that also. Very bizarre. Maybe a sign of volcanic activity to come?
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Sorry, totally OT, but there's a big swarm of quakes happening in northern Iceland right now; maybe something volcanic is just starting to "getting a life", lol.


Source/Link.
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Quoting etxwx:
Grothar, did you plant this?

In climate puzzle for crops, ancient tree offers clues
By Alister Doyle
FULUFJALLET, Sweden | Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:58am EDT

(Reuters) - On a windswept Swedish mountain, a 10,000-year-old spruce with a claim to be the world's oldest tree is getting a new lease of life thanks to global warming, even as many plants are struggling.

Scientists are finding that the drift of growing areas for many plants out toward the poles is moving not in a smooth progression but in fits and starts, causing problems for farmers aiming to adapt and invest in cash crops that are more sensitive to climate than is this ancient conifer known as "Old Tjikko".

At a range of latitudes, but especially in the far north, climate change is bringing bigger than expected swings, putting billions of dollars at stake in a push to develop varieties with resilience to frost and heatwaves, drought or flood.

More about this here.


Norwegians only go to Sweden if they have to. :)

Actually, Norway and Sweden have been having a very big problem in the past 20 years with all sorts of growing problems with plants and also insects. The snows are very wet in Northern Norway, which is unusual. The seasonal changes have been very eratic and has been a problem for Norway, Finland and Sweden. They have never dealt with a climate change like this and they have been there a looooong time. Interesting article.

There is a special berry which grows in Northern climes, but Sweden has the best in Northern Sweden called lingon. In Norwegian we call them tyttebaerer or here they are known as lingonberries. They grow for a short time and the last few years, the Norwegians have actually been going over to Sweden by helicopter and taking the berries.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting Dakster:
TA13 - keep up the blogging. I would rather you do this, then any of the things I catch other teenagers doing on a daily basis....

He isn't the only teenager here, I know what you mean by what some teens do.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Honestly, a great deal of them probably are, lol.

Lol, they are probably.
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TA13 - keep up the blogging. I would rather you do this, then any of the things I catch other teenagers doing on a daily basis....
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Pat has 363. Too bad for you :P

And Taz has 5,088...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Pat has 363. Too bad for you :P


Pat outdoes me too, eh? Lovable guy.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
While we're talking about this, I wonder if I rank in the top five for most blog entries from a single person on this site (excluding Masters). 362 and counting. I know for sure Levi outdoes me, but surely I'm in the far upper percentile...

Pat has 363. Too bad for you :P
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Quoting Dakster:


I did not know we were running a contest... Did I miss it?


They might be. I'm not. Just thought it was interesting to note.
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Quoting Grothar:
Come on guys leave TA alone. He really doesn't blog anymore than the rest of us. At least 20,000 of those entries are the NHC advisories.

Honestly, a great deal of them probably are, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
Quoting KoritheMan:
While we're talking about this, I wonder if I rank in the top five for most blog entries from a single person on this site (excluding Masters). 362 and counting. I know for sure Levi outdoes me, but surely I'm in the far upper percentile...


I did not know we were running a contest... Did I miss it?
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Quoting Grothar:
Come on guys leave TA alone. He really doesn't blog anymore than the rest of us. At least 20,000 of those entries are the NHC advisories.


LMAO! +10

You guys are great tonight.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Actually it is pretty easy, even a caveman could do it. All you need to do is post around 50 comments or so everyday and your comments number does go up. That's how I have over 4600 comments even though I only started commenting in July.
OMG you join after me wow.I join last year but I start commenting until March I think.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4318
While we're talking about this, I wonder if I rank in the top five for most blog entries from a single person on this site (excluding Masters). 362 and counting. I know for sure Levi outdoes me, but surely I'm in the far upper percentile...
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I pay attention in biology even though it isn't weather.

I pay attention to World geography more than anything, my teacher is attempting to get me into GIS and a NASA internship for my Tropics knowledge and the fact that I can vividly draw the world by memory in roughly 3 and a half minutes. He is fascinated by my skills in his subject, and the tropics. I showed him my 2, 60 slide, PowerPoints with notes, archives and research. : )
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669. etxwx
Grothar, did you plant this?

In climate puzzle for crops, ancient tree offers clues
By Alister Doyle
FULUFJALLET, Sweden | Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:58am EDT

(Reuters) - On a windswept Swedish mountain, a 10,000-year-old spruce with a claim to be the world's oldest tree is getting a new lease of life thanks to global warming, even as many plants are struggling.

Scientists are finding that the drift of growing areas for many plants out toward the poles is moving not in a smooth progression but in fits and starts, causing problems for farmers aiming to adapt and invest in cash crops that are more sensitive to climate than is this ancient conifer known as "Old Tjikko".

At a range of latitudes, but especially in the far north, climate change is bringing bigger than expected swings, putting billions of dollars at stake in a push to develop varieties with resilience to frost and heatwaves, drought or flood.

More about this here.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


I'm really interested in the track on this one. The M storm, can't remember its name dumped a very large moisture field over northern Mexico on its way out. Got a few inches of rain from it.
I think you mean the N storm. Norman was the one.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4318
667. JRRP


esto me recuerda al huracan Tomas 2010



more or less

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Come on guys leave TA alone. He really doesn't blog anymore than the rest of us. At least 20,000 of those entries are the NHC advisories.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I go out all the time, lol. I can't help you guys don't blog like I do.


I hear no one is as fast as you are... Or blogs as much.
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Quoting Grothar:
The next models should show a better agreement of 99L moving over far eastern Cuba.

I agree with that Gro.
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Quoting Dakster:


After marriage and kids, my life ended....

Not really, just got a lot more hectic though.


tch...tch..
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I have almost 5,000 comments and I joined this year. Talk about no life, lol. Seriously though, it's easy to rack up a lot of comments in just one night on here. Half my comments have probably just been posting GFS frames, lol. Still plenty of time to have an outside life.
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Quoting Grothar:
The next models should show a better agreement of 99L moving over far eastern Cuba.


Agreed.
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The next models should show a better agreement of 99L moving over far eastern Cuba.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Well, that shows you something... I have less than 4000 comments and yet I joined only 3 months after you... Cody, I'm sorry to say, but do u get out much? I mean seriously you have 5x as many comments... You rank 3rd place for most comment by any blogger, and you're relatively new to the blog, as am I, compared to those that joine back in 2004/05

Actually it is pretty easy, even a caveman could do it. All you need to do is post around 50 comments or so everyday and your comments number does go up. That's how I have over 4600 comments even though I only started commenting in July.
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Quoting Grothar:


Aw come on. The honeydos much keep you occupied?


Yes... And working to try and support them.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Going to get in the 50's!:) tonight!!

52 up here!!!!!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Well, that shows you something... I have less than 4000 comments and yet I joined only 3 months after you... Cody, I'm sorry to say, but do u get out much? I mean seriously you have 5x as many comments... You rank 3rd place for most comment by any blogger, and you're relatively new to the blog, as am I, compared to those that joine back in 2004/05

I go out all the time, lol. I can't help you guys don't blog like I do.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Well, that shows you something... I have less than 4000 comments and yet I joined only 3 months after you... Cody, I'm sorry to say, but do u get out much? I mean seriously you have 5x as many comments... You rank 3rd place for most comment by any blogger, and you're relatively new to the blog, as am I, compared to those that joine back in 2004/05


How does he have 3,000 more comments than me, I joined 5 years before he did. That's older than some of the trolls that come on here.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting Dakster:


After marriage and kids, my life ended....

Not really, just got a lot more hectic though.


Aw come on. The honeydos much keep you occupied?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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