Caribbean disturbance 99L a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2012

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A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are beginning to show some organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday. The Dominican Republic may also see some heavy rains, though not as great. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will approaching the Eastern U.S., and the GFS and ECMWF models predict that this trough will turn 99L to the north, bringing the storm into the southeast Bahama Islands on Thursday or Friday. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning. I put these odds higher, at 40%. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 99L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Invest 90L in the middle Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. The disturbance has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and has gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system. This upper-level low is pumping cool, dry air into the disturbance, which will keep any development slow over the next few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, but is forecast to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Sunday through Monday. This may allow for some slow development of 90L before it encounters very high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots on Tuesday and Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models develop 90L into a tropical cyclone. It's unlikely that 90L will affect any land areas. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2pm TWO should be out momentarily.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
Good Afternoon... WX spicing up some in the C Carib.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
12z CMC:


That's a lot closer to Florida.
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12z CMC:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting stormchaser19:


Hwrf looks like CMC track, so i don't think so.....GFS and ECMWF are more realistic right now, specially due this time of the year.....
The CMC has been consistent with a track through Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas, while both the GFS and ECMWF have flip-flopped from showing 1 storm to 2 storms.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
This looks rather winterish...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The HWRF track seems pretty realistic, though intensity is likely overdone, we would need some serious RI to get where the HWRF put it.


Hwrf looks like CMC track, so i don't think so.....GFS and ECMWF are more realistic right now, specially due this time of the year.....
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99L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
15.25N/72.19W
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Quoting GraduateStudent2012:
Y'all, what are the odds of Sandy eventually affecting Miami?


Oct can always have a suprise for sfl but as of now the upper level pattern the next 2 weeks points to a north-northeast or northeast track which should keep this system away from sfl and southeastern US
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The HWRF track seems pretty realistic, though intensity is likely overdone, we would need some serious RI to get where the HWRF put it.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7597
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We may have out 2nd major (officially until post-season says otherwise) yet. Hmmm, poor Jamaica.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
This would suck for Jamaica, intensity is probably overdone though.


woah!!! 964mb ?! That's a cat 3 hurricane. Likely overdone but still dangerous for Jamaica
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
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This would suck for Jamaica, intensity is probably overdone though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
The center goes right over Jamaica and it doesn't lose much steam. Heading due north now:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7597
Quoting GraduateStudent2012:


Been a long time, Welcome! How you've been?
Good ;)
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Please, tell me how the heck a system could possibly be a fish storm if it's in the middle of the Caribbean?

It's not a fish...i meant to say that many systems in the past 3 years have either been fish storms or if not fishes and are in the Caribbean, many have buried themselves into the Yucatan or Central America.
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This is not a pretty run for Jamaica atall.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Remember the HWRF with Isaac? Good times...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7597
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Not that far south, Rina developed in the same vicinity last year and so did Mitch.

I was thinking before I wrote that.
Does it seem far south compared to the GFS? whereas the GFS has is going N or NNE the HWRF would seem to have it far south possibly going in CA, MX or possibly the E GOM.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Not that far south, Rina developed in the same vicinity last year and so did Mitch.
Rina was much further west and so was Mitch. Rina developed around 80/81W and Mitch at 79W.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Its way too early to say exactly where it goes the models will shift. Although I think the GFS/Euro is the eastern most track. You will need a very deep and strong trough for a sharp turn.

The only 3 major global models that are in range with the system right now are the GFS, Euro, and CMC... they're all farther east than the statisticals that people have been posting, which as I said should be expected as not many storms in the Caribbean turn due north like this one likely will eventually... you're right though, it's very early and a lot can and probably will change.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7597
The hwrf at 78hrs has a strengthening hurricane in the SW Caribbean. Will it is not super likely it isn't impossible given the high TCHP values and a favorable environment.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting LargoFl:
it MAY..keep going into central america


This keeps it too far south.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
982 in 72.

it MAY..keep going into central america
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36826
Quoting lobdelse81:

Let me guess...if 99L is not a fish storm, it will be a Yucatan/Central America storm like we have seen so many times over the last three seasons, IF NOT A FISH, IT'S A YUCATAN, lol. Does anyone have a comment on to thoughts of where this might go?


Please, tell me how the heck a system could possibly be a fish storm if it's in the middle of the Caribbean?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23560
710
ASUS42 KTBW 201610
RWRFL
FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.


FLZ001>010-012>015-201700-
PANHANDLE FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PENSACOLA SUNNY 74 42 31 VRB5 30.00S
PENSACOLA NAS MOSUNNY 72 43 35 NW6 30.00S
MILTON NAS SUNNY 74 47 38 VRB5 30.00S
CRESTVIEW SUNNY 72 46 39 W6 30.01F
VALPARAISO MOSUNNY 72 42 32 VRB5 29.99F
MARY ESTHER SUNNY 73 48 41 W5 29.99S
PANAMA CITY FAIR 72 43 35 NW6 29.98F
TYNDALL AFB SUNNY 73 54 51 N5 29.99F
APALACHICOLA SUNNY 75 41 29 VRB6 29.98S

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
29.2N 88.2W 74 82 360/ 6/ 10 1015.4R 2/ 4 2/ 6
28.5N 84.5W 75 80 350/ 8/ 14 1014.9F 2/ 4 2/ 4

$$
FLZ011-016>039-201700-
NORTH FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MARIANNA SUNNY 72 45 37 VRB6 29.98S
TALLAHASSEE SUNNY 74 40 29 NW9 29.97F
PERRY N/A 74 44 34 N6 29.96F
CROSS CITY N/A 77 43 29 N7 29.96F
GAINESVILLE SUNNY 76 42 29 NW8 29.96F
MAYPORT NAS SUNNY 75 42 30 NW5 29.94F
JACKSONVILLE MOSUNNY 75 45 34 NW6 29.94S
JAX NAS MOSUNNY 75 45 34 W6 29.95F
JAX CRAIG SUNNY 76 46 34 N7 29.94F
JAX CECIL SUNNY 75 46 35 NW12 29.95F
FERNANDINA BEA FAIR 75 46 35 NW7 29.92F
ST AUGUSTINE SUNNY 75 48 38 W6 29.96S

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
FERNANDINA 71 76 280/ 4/ 7 1012.9F
KEATON BEACH 72 310/ 7/ 8 1015.3F
MAYPORT 72 78 290/ 8/ 10 N/A
31.4N 80.9W 70 76 290/ 4/ 6 1013.8R 2/11 2/11
30.0N 80.5W 74 81 320/ 12/ 16 1013.8F 3/ 9 2/ 9
ST AUGUSTINE 73 320/ 7/ 11 1015.0F

$$
FLZ040-043>046-052-053-057-058-063-201700-
CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
OCALA SUNNY 77 39 25 N10 29.97S
THE VILLAGES N/A 77 48 36 NW9 29.96F
LEESBURG SUNNY 79 48 33 N12G17 29.97F
SANFORD SUNNY 78 46 32 N9 29.96S
ORLANDO EXEC SUNNY 79 45 29 N10 29.96S
ORLANDO INTL SUNNY 78 49 35 N6 29.96S
KISSIMMEE SUNNY 79 50 36 NW8 29.97S
WINTER HAVEN SUNNY 79 53 40 N9 29.98S
LAKELAND SUNNY 79 55 44 NW10 29.97F
OKEECHOBEE MOSUNNY 77 57 50 NW10 29.96F

$$
FLZ041-047-054-059-064-201700-
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ORMOND BEACH SUNNY 75 45 33 NW9 29.96S
DAYTONA BEACH SUNNY 77 47 34 N12 29.95F
NEW SMYRNA BEA SUNNY 75 48 38 NW12 29.96F
JFK SPACE CTR SUNNY 78 51 39 N9 29.95F
TITUSVILLE SUNNY 77 48 36 N12 29.95S
CAPE CANAVERAL MOSUNNY 78 49 35 N12G21 29.95S
PATRICK AFB SUNNY 78 51 38 NW13 29.96S
MELBOURNE SUNNY 79 51 37 N12 29.95S
VERO BEACH CLOUDY 78 59 51 N13 29.96S
FT PIERCE MOSUNNY 79 61 53 N8 29.95F

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
28.9N 78.5W 80 82 360/ 14/ 17 1012.7F 5/ 4 2/ 9

$$
FLZ042-048>051-055-056-060-061-201700-
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CRYSTAL RIVER FAIR 77 46 33 N8 29.97S
INVERNESS FAIR 77 46 33 N5 29.97F
BROOKSVILLE SUNNY 79 51 37 N8 29.97F
ZEPHYRHILLS FAIR 77 52 41 N5 29.97F
CLEARWATER SUNNY 79 60 52 VRB5 29.96F
TAMPA INTL SUNNY 80 58 46 N6G16 29.96F
TAMPA EXEC SUNNY 81 59 47 N7 29.96F
PLANT CITY SUNNY 79 55 44 N5 29.98F
MACDILL AFB SUNNY 83 61 47 VRB5 29.96F
PETER O KNIGHT SUNNY 79 57 47 NE8 29.96F
ST PETERSBURG SUNNY 79 62 56 NE10 29.94F
SARASOTA SUNNY 82 58 43 N9 29.94F
VENICE FAIR 81 59 47 NE10 29.96F

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
CEDAR KEY 73 360/ 9/ 12 1015.2R
28.5N 84.5W 75 80 350/ 8/ 14 1014.9F 2/ 4 2/ 4
27.3N 84.2W 82 N/A 3/ 5
VENICE 77 10/ 9/ 11 1013.5F

$$
FLZ062-065-066-069-070-075>078-201700-
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND KEYS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PUNTA GORDA MOSUNNY 80 60 50 N13 29.97F
FT MYERS PTSUNNY 82 69 64 N12 29.93S
SOUTHWEST INTL MOSUNNY 82 70 66 NE13 29.94S
NAPLES MOSUNNY 83 73 72 VRB6 29.92F
MARATHON MOSUNNY 87 76 69 N6 29.92S HX 97
KEY WEST NAS MOSUNNY 85 74 69 N12 29.92F
KEY WEST INTL SUNNY 84 73 69 N13 29.92F

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
VENICE 77 10/ 9/ 11 1013.5F
26.0N 85.6W 78 82 20/ 12/ 14 1014.8F 3/ 5
DRY TORTUGAS NOT AVBL
SOMBRERO KEY 81 350/ 6/ 7 1013.7R
LONG KEY 82 84 360/ 6/ 7 1013.7R
MOLASSES REEF 81 83 360/ 7/ 8 1013.6R

$$
FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-201700-
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 84 70 62 N10 29.92F
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 85 70 60 VRB6 29.92F
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 85 70 60 N6 29.92F
POMPANO BEACH CLOUDY 79 72 79 E8 29.93F
PEMBROKE PINES SUNNY 84 69 60 NW5 29.94F
OPA LOCKA SUNNY 84 70 62 N6 29.93F
MIAMI MOSUNNY 85 69 58 NW6 29.93F
VIRGINIA KEY N/A 84 70 63 N8 29.91S
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 86 71 60 N12G20 29.93F
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 84 73 70 NW10 29.93F
FLAMINGO N/A 84 70 63 NW8 N/A

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
LAKE WORTH 79 83 20/ 13/ 14 1013.6S
FOWEY ROCKS 80 82 340/ 7/ 8 1013.6R
SETTLEMENT POINT 81 340/ 10/ 11 1013.4F

$$

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36826
982 in 72.

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


We can blame Rafaels return on Ameister12 who hasn't changed his his avatar...

LOL! I could change my avatar to picture of a person named Nadine in hopes to bring Hurricane Nadine back from the dead.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

Is it just me or does it look really far south?
Not that far south, Rina developed in the same vicinity last year and so did Mitch.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Windshear will likely be the biggest factor as to how strong this gets, if it relaxes and with those TCHP values then it could undergo rapid intensification, but if shear picks up, it could keep the system from intensifying quickly.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23560
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Haiti, Nicaragua, Yucatan passage, Key West... take your pick.

Let me guess...if 99L is not a fish storm, it will be a Yucatan/Central America storm like we have seen so many times over the last three seasons, IF NOT A FISH, IT'S A YUCATAN, lol. Does anyone have a comment on to thoughts of where this might go?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If it goes west and stays west it's very possible it strengthens faster, but it's uncertain as to whether it'll do that. I think a solution more like the GFS/ECMWF is likely.


Its way too early to say exactly where it goes the models will shift. Although I think the GFS/Euro is the eastern most track. You will need a very deep and strong trough for a sharp turn.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It shouldn't come as a big surprise that most of the statistical/climatology based models show a W/NW track, since that's generally what happens with these systems... the actual track should be much farther east than the consensus with these:

Dr. Master stated southern Bahamas, that's not what models are showing,but is true should be NE track...for a Central Caribbean system...since most of this systems this time of the year are stronger to the East and ESE, even in Puerto Rico should monitor,for the rain and winds if it becomes strong...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I think HWRF may be too fast in intensity but I may be wrong as conditions should be favorable.
Windshear will likely be the biggest factor as to how strong this gets, if it relaxes and with those TCHP values then it could undergo rapid intensification, but if shear picks up, it could keep the system from intensifying quickly.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Down to 986 mb. in 66 hrs.


Is it just me or does it look really far south?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If it goes west and stays west it's very possible it strengthens faster, but it's uncertain as to whether it'll do that. I think a solution more like the GFS/ECMWF is likely.


The ECMWF solution is unreasonable, strings it out into a trough. A blend of the GFS/CMC seems the best solution to me.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23560
NAM at 84 hours,850 vort.......................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36826
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I think HWRF may be too fast in intensity but I may be wrong as conditions should be favorable.

If it goes west and stays west it's very possible it strengthens faster, but it's uncertain as to whether it'll do that. I think a solution more like the GFS/ECMWF is likely.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7597
GFS at 144 hours,850 vort...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36826
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Down to 986 mb. in 66 hrs.



Starting the gain latitude
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Down to 986 mb. in 66 hrs.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
HWRF 48 hours out, intensifying Tropical Storm.




I think HWRF may be too fast in intensity but I may be wrong as conditions should be favorable.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13989
NAEFS model at 144 hours,850 vort..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36826

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.