Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

Share this Blog
42
+

Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 342 - 292

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

342. Skyepony (Mod)
NSIDC not so optimistic, I guess adding climatology shows the doom..

Autumn over the Arctic Ocean is a season of falling temperatures and rapid growth of sea ice. However, as in recent years, low sea ice extent at the beginning of autumn means large transfers of heat to the atmosphere from open water areas, keeping the Arctic warmer than usual. Despite this warmth, freeze up is in high gear.


Winter is coming.. Here's a nice song about frost for anyone having a frosty morning or wishing for one.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
It's interesting to compare the 2012 data to recent years and long term averages for some context:


(note - 2012 is the blue line at the very bottom of the graph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GFS continues to predict a major hurricane in the East pacific from the area of convection currently southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Quoting luvtogolf:
Interesing...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/sea-ice-new s-volume-3-number-15-arctic-refreeze-fastest-ever/


Sea Ice News Volume 3 Number 15 %u2013 Arctic refreeze fastest ever

Posted on October 18, 2012 by Anthony Watts

After all of the news about a minimum record ice extent last month, this is interesting. As we know when water loses its ice cover, it allows a lot of heat to radiate into space as LWIR. many predictied that as a result of the extra open ocean surface, we see a very fast refreeze in the Arctic. It appears they were right. In fact, this is the fastest monthly scale refreeze rate in the NSIDC satellite record going back to 1979.



Yeah, this looks like a pretty quick freeze up.


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mega squall line.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Quoting luvtogolf:
Interesing...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/sea-ice-new s-volume-3-number-15-arctic-refreeze-fastest-ever/


Sea Ice News Volume 3 Number 15 – Arctic refreeze fastest ever

Posted on October 18, 2012 by Anthony Watts

After all of the news about a minimum record ice extent last month, this is interesting. As we know when water loses its ice cover, it allows a lot of heat to radiate into space as LWIR. many predictied that as a result of the extra open ocean surface, we see a very fast refreeze in the Arctic. It appears they were right. In fact, this is the fastest monthly scale refreeze rate in the NSIDC satellite record going back to 1979.


Could it be the lense of fresh water that is floating on the salt water that would cause this? Sounds logical.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Good morning from Firnell Island off the coast of Tarpon Springs. I camped here overnight and watched the sun set and rise while swimming in the relatively chilly waters.... It was a balmy night with a low of 79.

It's a really neat area of mangrove islands with some of the best shark fishing in Florida as far as I know. Great place to camp and fish.
Sounds beautiful. I hope you are doing catch and release. No reason to keep any sharks you catch.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Interesing...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/sea-ice-new s-volume-3-number-15-arctic-refreeze-fastest-ever/


Sea Ice News Volume 3 Number 15 – Arctic refreeze fastest ever

Posted on October 18, 2012 by Anthony Watts

After all of the news about a minimum record ice extent last month, this is interesting. As we know when water loses its ice cover, it allows a lot of heat to radiate into space as LWIR. many predictied that as a result of the extra open ocean surface, we see a very fast refreeze in the Arctic. It appears they were right. In fact, this is the fastest monthly scale refreeze rate in the NSIDC satellite record going back to 1979.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I didn't realize this was a game to be won or lost. I thought it was a weather blog.

So how do we know when one of the "teams" wins?

Also, would somebody pleeeeeease turn off the wind?!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning from Firnell Island off the coast of Tarpon Springs. I camped here overnight and watched the sun set and rise while swimming in the relatively chilly waters.... It was a balmy night with a low of 79.

It's a really neat area of mangrove islands with some of the best shark fishing in Florida as far as I know. Great place to camp and fish.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clamshell:


If you do, indeed, stop posting here, they will have won.

Bullies and thugs love to use the keyboard to attack others. The anonymity makes them feel very brave.

Read up on Propaganda and you will easily recognize their techniques. You can almost point to the page they are working from.

Anyway, please don't stop commenting, your ideas belong here.



Quoting TomballTXPride:

Well stated, clamshell.

Aussie - Don't you go anywhere!!! Your insight, knowledge, ideas, links, images, and information you post contributes immensely to this blog.

I changed my mind after an ok nights sleep. I ain't going no where. Not just it would make them think they win, I don't like giving up to easy. I'm an Aussie, we are built tough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thrawn?


Aye...thought you might know! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Quoting AussieStorm:


***Lurk mode off***
FYI I did that cause I was being criticized for criticizing Dr Masters for making a "dud" forecast on Patty. I was also accused of calling Dr Masters a liar, which I would never ever do. I think it's best I stop commenting on Dr Masters blog cause certain people here think it's not nice to criticize or freedom to have an opinion/forecast.

*** Lurk Mode on**


If you do, indeed, stop posting here, they will have won.

Bullies and thugs love to use the keyboard to attack others. The anonymity makes them feel very brave.

Read up on Propaganda and you will easily recognize their techniques. You can almost point to the page they are working from.

Anyway, please don't stop commenting, your ideas belong here.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THERE are 3 AOI in the wider tropical atlantic this morning. one in thr sw caribbean one in the mid tropical atlantic and the other in the far eatl. although the focus is on the sw carib distubance, my pick is the AOI in the eatl. it has no model support, but there is good 850mb and 700mb vorts. the 500mb vort is very weak. but stroger than the sw carib AOI. Somehow i am very suspicious of the eatl disturbance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
DATE OF FIRST LOW TEMPERATURE <= 60 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
RECORDS
LOCATION EARLIEST LATEST AVERAGE BEGAN
CHIEFLAND 5 SE AUG 27 1969 OCT 25 1959 SEP 27 1956
INVERNESS 3 SE SEP 09 1997 OCT 25 1959 OCT 07 1948
BUSHNELL 2 E SEP 09 1997 NOV 03 1969 OCT 06 1948
WEEKI WACHEE SEP 07 1982 OCT 23 1998 OCT 02 1969
ST LEO SEP 14 2001 NOV 08 1919 OCT 11 1895
TARPON SPRINGS SEP 19 1981* NOV 15 1919 OCT 12 1892
TAMPA SEP 19 1981 NOV 15 1919 OCT 17 1890
ST PETERSBURG OCT 01 1920 DEC 04 1986 OCT 27 1914
PLANT CITY SEP 15 1918 NOV 05 1900 OCT 10 1893
LAKELAND SEP 19 1981 NOV 14 1946 OCT 15 1946
BARTOW SEP 19 1981 NOV 14 1946 OCT 14 1892
WINTER HAVEN SEP 19 1981 NOV 14 1946 OCT 18 1941
MOUNTAIN LAKE SEP 19 1981 NOV 04 2007* OCT 12 1935
PARRISH SEP 19 1981 NOV 03 2007 OCT 14 1958
SARASOTA-BRADENTON SEP 20 1981 NOV 02 1994 OCT 14 1948
MYAKKA RIVER ST PK SEP 19 1981 NOV 04 1969 OCT 11 1956
WAUCHULA 2 N SEP 19 1981 NOV 07 1941 OCT 13 1933
AVON PARK 2 W SEP 20 1981 NOV 14 1946 OCT 16 1902
ARCADIA SEP 16 1962 NOV 19 1911 OCT 12 1901
ARCHBOLD BIO STN SEP 08 1997 NOV 04 2007 OCT 05 1969
VENICE SEP 27 1956 NOV 05 1998* OCT 18 1956
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE OCT 02 2001* NOV 05 1985 OCT 18 1965
FORT MYERS OCT 01 1920* DEC 03 1986 OCT 27 1902
------------------------------------------------- -----------
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WATERS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
the coming front just might give us some rain...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Excerpt from NWS in Miami:

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT THE
SAME TIME, A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE BAHA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEAST WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL PLACE FLORIDA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALL OF THESE PROCESSES WILL
ALLOW THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY THIS TIME, MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE GETTING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOT MUCH
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE CWA WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING
INTO THE 60S. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT
IT WILL BE PLEASANT WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY AND BREEZY ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I guess he is. The pattern is pretty progressive as temps will drop to the 50's in Central Florida and 60's all the way down to Miami. To me, that would indicate the trough would stear whatever develops NNE or NE. It's all about timing.
would love to see 50's here,but pinellas being surrounded by water..it wont happen, waters too warm just now.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
waters below cuba sure warm enough..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep this was the European from last night which is still holding onto a large area of low pressure that spreads northward and splits.

Looks like TS force winds:

interesting week coming up huh GT
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
GFS at 288 hours,we have a Gulf storm,yes long way off...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
GFS at 276 hours, whats left of that pacific storm makes it into the gulf................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
GFS at 240 hours,check out that pacific storm.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
GFS at 192 hours..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Quoting sporteguy03:


Not entirely true, I am not sure which Euro he is looking at because the 12z Euro and 00z Euro bring whatever it is close to Florida at the end. Maybe he is looking at the ensembles.
Yep this was the European from last night which is still holding onto a large area of low pressure that spreads northward and splits.

Looks like TS force winds:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
GFS in 6 days,end of next week might get interesting.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
from a brownsville newspaper on those Bad storms yesterday..By ALLEN ESSEX Valley Morning Star




A thunderstorm that swept quickly from the north Thursday evening brought strong winds and dumped “buckets” of rain and pea-sized hail on Willacy County, where funnel clouds were seen to touch down.

High winds blew down some highway and construction sighs.

Scattered power outages caused by funnel clouds hitting power lines occurred in Raymondville and Elsa, said Frank Espinoza, a spokesman for AEP Texas.

Officials said there were also scattered power outages in Cameron and Hidalgo counties, mostly due to wind blowing trees into power lines.

Northern Cameron County received a short downpour and then steady rain for more than hour, while Hidalgo County saw much more rain. Much of the Rio Grande Valley was treated to a spectacular lightning show.

A game warden reported a large funnel cloud touched down about 5:50 p.m. about 7 miles south of San Perlita, near the intersection of Farm to Market Road 498 and FM 1420, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Brownsville reported.

Pea-sized hail was reported by a Raymondville police officer around 6:15 p.m., Willacy County Emergency Management Coordinator Frank Torres said.

Numerous reports of funnel clouds were received from around Willacy County but no damage or injuries had been received as of 6:30 p.m., he said.

Heavy rain was falling in Harlingen by 6:40 p.m. and hail and funnel cloud warnings were being monitored.

A second sighting of a funnel cloud touching down was reported west of Santa Monica, Willacy County Sheriff Larry Spence said.

“It may have been the same one reported by the game warden, touching down again,” he said of the twister.

There were high winds, hail and “rain was coming down in buckets,” the sheriff said.

“We had some highway signs blown down and construction signs blown over,” Spence said. “In the construction zone (near Lyford on Expressway 77), we had some barrels marking the construction blown across the highway. Also, we had a few utility poles catch fire,” Spence said of lightning strikes in the area.

There was no serious damage but lightning strikes were continuing at 7:30 p.m., Spence said.

In Cameron County, there was a spectacular lightning show west of Harlingen in the Palm Valley area.

However only light rain was reported in Harlingen after an initial downpour.

Harlingen Police Sgt. John Parrish said there were a few small power outages, mostly in the western portion of Harlingen.

“There were no accidents or injuries,” he said of the Thursday evening storm.

A Texas Department of Public Safety spokeswoman at Weslaco said no storm-related accidents or injuries occurred in the Harlingen area.

The Cameron County Sheriff’s Department also reported no storm-related accidents or injuries in the northern portion of the county.

allene@valleystar.com
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
all of FL is going to get cold soon The 50's are coming!!
nah not for my county, 60's overnight this week..but..im hoping they are wrong..50's would be a welcome break for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
all of FL is going to get cold soon The 50's are coming!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Everyone have a wonderful Friday. Now to find a jacket for this morning!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Off topic,

I have job interview in 1hour 15 minutes. :) I really need this!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Model support is still very strong for a system to develop in the SW or Western Caribbean. However, no model bring the system anywhere close to the US. Just read Crown Weather and he believes that a NNE or NE movement is likely. Looks like Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas should pay attention.


Not entirely true, I am not sure which Euro he is looking at because the 12z Euro and 00z Euro bring whatever it is close to Florida at the end. Maybe he is looking at the ensembles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


LOL my username is a take on a Star Wars character actually, cause yes, I really am that much of a geek LOL even more so I suppose as is a character only found in the SW books :P


Thrawn?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Good morning. Here is the discussion by the San Juan NWS of the Caribbean development.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP EVENTUALLY BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GMEX. MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEXT
FRI AND MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC NEXT SAT. SRLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STORM WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO OUR AREA WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF BEING FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS BY 24 HRS. A MULTI-DAY
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIG RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER A 2-4 DAY
PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE IT APPEARS
HISPANIOLA WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THE DEGREE OF IMPACT OVR
PR AS BEST INFLOW WILL BE FOCUSED JUST WEST OF OUR AREA AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVR A 2-4 DAY PERIOD. FOR NOW JUST RAISED THE
SKY CVR GRIDS AS IT APPEARS DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM NEWD AND
REMAIN WITH US FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14896

Viewing: 342 - 292

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron