Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

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Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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392. dabirds
4:24 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Lots of color in S C IL right now. Only Red Maple? I have hard maples that are orange/purple that drop early and another that turns yellow (just now turning) and drops later. The hickories in the Kaskaskia drainage were really popping last week. Headed down eastern side of IL basin day before and not nearly as much color. Looks like oaks are going to be a little more colorful this year too - I guess those Aug/Sept rains helped. (If this rain/wind doesn't knock too many off today)

97 - I'm getting my Here Kitty Kitty shirt from '06 ready! Rem what happened last time a triple crown winner's team faced the Cards in the WS.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 773
390. Neapolitan
4:21 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting Treehorn:


Somewhat sensationalistic post...

Sometimes people confuse local weather with global weather. For Jan-Feb of this year, UAH data for the lower troposphere had the globe as the 26th warmest out of 34 years, and RSS had it as the 20th warmest out of 34 years (via NCDC website). If you look at Jan-Mar, RSS had it as the 25th warmest of 34, UAH the 17th warmest.

So last year's winter was indeed average. Local areas will continue to experience "extreme, historic, and record-breaking events" as they always have. I do agree that less arctic sea ice will contribute to a change in weather patterns for areas adjacent to it.
I agree with the factual parts of your post, but not the conclusion: namely, that "last year's winter was indeed average". The thing is, it's not always correct to use an average as the ultimate arbiter of whether the individual parts that make up that average are extreme. For instance, if one county receives 95% below its normal rainfall for a year while the next county over receives 95% above its normal rainfall for that same year, the average precipitation for the two counties might seem fine, but the obvious truth is that both counties would be facing severe difficulties, one with drought, the other by flood. By the same token, an area that experiences a severe month-long cold snap followed by a severe month-long heat wave can be said to have experienced an "average" two month period temperature-wise--but that's far from the actual truth of the matter.

I've heard it expressed this way before: if one of your arms is five feet long and the other is just an inch-long stub, their average length of about 2.5 feet might look great on paper--but the reality is otherwise. ;-)

The earth is currently seeing extreme weather events increasing in severity and frequency. And so long as the surface continues to warm through our unimpeded burning of fossil fuels, I'm afraid that will continue to be the case...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
389. Skyepony (Mod)
4:19 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Malaysia~ Twenty-two houses at Kampung Sungai Burung and Jalan Baru Sungai Korok here were badly damaged during a severe thunderstorm today. In the noon incident, the winds blew away rooftops while falling trees compounded the destruction on the houses. Resident Zulkiflee Mat Yusof, 50, said many of the electrical items in his house were damaged by rain water, fanned by the winds into the house. A Bakso stall operator who only wanted to be identified as Anis, 31, said she was busy serving customers when the thunderstorm struck. "It was so sudden that I had no time to act," she said, finding her stall and wares completely destroyed in the aftermath. Senior citizen Jamaludin Ahamad, 65, said he and his family were having their lunch in the living room when a tree at the back of the house fell and hit the kitchen roof.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Unfortunately I think there are people being run off or in some cases banned from this blog.
It's a slow weather day so far.. Might see an invest in the Central Atlantic later. All this other is yesterday's news..stale. I fail to see anyone running anyone off..just alot of people making assumptions.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38769
388. DavidHOUTX
4:19 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Guess the Euro is the better model. Per Ryan Maue:


Let me introduce the most widely used metric of forecast verification: the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC). The ACC is a spatial aggregation of forecast skill similarity or more simply how closely correlated is the forecast grid to reality that occurred. The most common region verified for GFS and ECMWF is the Northern Hemisphere (NH) with 500 mb geopontential height at 5-days or 120-hours being the pertinent variable of interest.

At 5-days, the ACC should be around 0.90 which represents a pretty good forecast. It can actually vary from -1 to 1 and any forecast with a score of 0.60 or lower is generally considered to be “unskillful” and not particularly useful. With current models and data assimilation procedures, an ACC=0.60 is not reached until about day 7 or even out to day 10 during extreme Arctic Oscillation phases in the winter. While the model may get the general hemispheric pattern right, any forecast with skill below 0.60 will generally have ridges and troughs in the wrong spot sometimes directly out of phase.




Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
387. StormPro
4:15 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Unfortunately I think there are people being run off or in some cases banned from this blog.

I'm just keeping my head down....watching for falling leaves lol
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
386. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:15 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
384. AztecCe
4:08 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The low pressure area (or tropical cyclone) will be a big inconvenience to many people in the Caribbean this upcoming week for sure, but let's not forget what we were tracking down there seven years ago.


Member Since: October 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
382. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:59 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
The low pressure area (or tropical cyclone) will be a big inconvenience to many people in the Caribbean this upcoming week for sure, but let's not forget what we were tracking down there seven years ago.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
381. AztecCe
3:59 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting 7544:
hmm maybe we will see 99l soon but will it be fish
no fish mabye hit cuba or hispanola
Member Since: October 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
380. TropicTraveler
3:58 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Interesting report today Dr. Masters. Being an Arizona resident, I'm not used to cold weather and shiver in sympathy at the thought of extra cold winters. Right now I'm working for a time in Baton Rouge Louisiana to the smell of the refineries blowing over us, and wondering if people get used to it over time. Also wonder what particulates might be present to cause that smell. The air looks clean, just smells stinky.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
379. catastropheadjuster
3:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Boy the blog is DEAD,.

Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
378. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

Most of the trees here are the Red-Orange color.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
377. catastropheadjuster
3:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
well has the conditions in the Atlantic and Caribbean shut down hurricane season especially with the cold fronts coming down? Or if it isn't will everything be a fish? Just wondering, I see most of the talk is about everything but the tropics just about.

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
376. GeorgiaStormz
3:55 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9738
375. GeorgiaStormz
3:47 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Some Nights we have had. Fun.

The coldest air of the season so far has come to GA and some areas might *gasp* 39F as a low, and some areas may not *gasp* get out of the 60s.
It is also the most prolonged cold spell yet, but a slow warming trend is expected under building high pressure.
The leaves are finally beginning to change rapidly, and are falling continuously now as is expected for October.

I suspect by the end of the next week or so, we may see nearly fully orange and red trees, that right now are still sporting much green on their lower branches.
And i will have to start raking.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9738
374. ChemPhysMath
3:41 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Hello Good Citizens,

My name is Jim and sometimes I teach. Right now I'm doing the USDA Grad school in Meto (for engineering PDH!) and occasionally I say something rude, such as

"We have blob!"

OK, back to lurking.
Member Since: August 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
373. 7544
3:36 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
hmm maybe we will see 99l soon but will it be fish
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
372. Jedkins01
3:35 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
would love to see 50's here,but pinellas being surrounded by water..it wont happen, waters too warm just now.




Not necessarily, do you have your own weather station? Because if you don't you might not realize a fair good amount of Pinellas will get cooler than you might think. The official temperature sites in Pinellas can be much warmer than other parts of the county, where I live we see frost and freezing temps during powerful winter cold blasts while Clearwater and St. Petersburg can be reading as warm as 40 degrees at the same time. The reason for the drastic differences is that those sites often get airflow "drainage" from the ocean even during nights with relatively calm winds. While other areas like Pinellas Park, my area, Largo, and even Seminole can get much colder on some nights than the official sites. I almost wonder if way back when, those locations were chosen in order to make Pinellas seem even more of a moderate winter climate than it even is for tourism sake. Obviously the NWS today would not adhere to such a strategy, but way back when commerce had a bigger impact on weather decisions due to meteorology being in it's infancy. I don't know if this is true or not about temperature site placement, its just speculation purely.

The exception though is windy nights, if there is any wind of any westerly component at all, all of Pinellas stays warm including the cooler places. But a N to NNE wind can still keep us cooler because it brings cooler air down from the nature coast overnight, cutting off the warm flow.


As you might notice. the Southeast Coast of Florida id often cooler than the southwest coast in winter frontal events due to the typical NW flow behind the front, The same rule goes for Central Florida, although the colder air shifts to our side with a NNE component with light wind because it's sandier soil over here.



BTW, I tend to be rather obsessively intrigued with how drastically weather can change locally, whether it be rainfall, wind speed, or temperature, so I get very detailed and involved with this sort of discussion. I've spent way too many hours of my life researching on it. If I had one goal as a meteorologist, it would be to be much more accurate with local changes in weather across a given region, that most forecasters miss, I get very upset to see a forecast temp for my location that know will be repeatedly wrong because of local change in weather, even though that forecast is probably just fine accuracy wise for the official site.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
371. Treehorn
3:34 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
From the current blog entry:"Average" would definitely be unexpected. My own guess: there'll continue to be many extreme, historic, and record-breaking weather events over the next six months (such as the current European wave of warmth, which is seeing hundreds of new daily high temperature records being set from Italy and Greece northward through Germany and Denmark).

No, I don't believe we've seen the end of freakish weather here in the U.S. I expect a few monster-sized and historic storms to bring abnormally heavy snowfalls to some locations; I expect one or more blocking patterns to set up in such a way that they allow persistent blobs of extremely frigid weather to invade the U.S. (driving those unfamiliar with how weather works to predictably ask, "What happened to global warming?"); I expect droughts to linger in places; I expect damaging out-of-season tornadoes; I expect periods of odd winter warmth where it hasn't been experienced before. And so on.

The winter's Northern Hemisphere weather is going to be interesting for some, inconvenient for millions--and, sadly, deadly for a few.


Somewhat sensationalistic post...

Sometimes people confuse local weather with global weather. For Jan-Feb of this year, UAH data for the lower troposphere had the globe as the 26th warmest out of 34 years, and RSS had it as the 20th warmest out of 34 years (via NCDC website). If you look at Jan-Mar, RSS had it as the 25th warmest of 34, UAH the 17th warmest.

So last year's winter was indeed average. Local areas will continue to experience "extreme, historic, and record-breaking events" as they always have. I do agree that less arctic sea ice will contribute to a change in weather patterns for areas adjacent to it.
Member Since: February 17, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
370. catastropheadjuster
3:31 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


I changed my mind after an ok nights sleep. I ain't going no where. Not just it would make them think they win, I don't like giving up to easy. I'm an Aussie, we are built tough.



I have to que in on this. I am one of them that sit and stay in the background and read. I look forward coming on here to see what you post and all, so please don't go anywhere. These folks have chased away a lot of people cause they get tired of all the bull hockey. There jerks and don't have a life, really there a joke. So you just stay and we will just - and report them every chance we get. Well that's what I do. I know the good guys from the very childish and ignorant ones.

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
369. LostTomorrows
3:27 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
I just woke up after a horrendous sleep, and the central Atlantic wave has a yellow circle, I figured it might get one because it's been darn persistent, and the large trough that got Rafael is largely out of the picture.

I'd be surprised if it develops, but perhaps the wave merges with the low in the S Caribbean to create a Sandy situation:

Link
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
365. Skyepony (Mod)
3:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Some higher storm surges are expected for the midAtlantic & NE states. Click pic to go interactive & check out forecasts & such.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38769
362. Thrawst
3:05 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
We had a massive storm here this morning. All i can say is that my school assembly was a little wet..
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1908
360. Neapolitan
3:03 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
From the current blog entry:
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.
"Average" would definitely be unexpected. My own guess: there'll continue to be many extreme, historic, and record-breaking weather events over the next six months (such as the current European wave of warmth, which is seeing hundreds of new daily high temperature records being set from Italy and Greece northward through Germany and Denmark).

No, I don't believe we've seen the end of freakish weather here in the U.S. I expect a few monster-sized and historic storms to bring abnormally heavy snowfalls to some locations; I expect one or more blocking patterns to set up in such a way that they allow persistent blobs of extremely frigid weather to invade the U.S. (driving those unfamiliar with how weather works to predictably ask, "What happened to global warming?"); I expect droughts to linger in places; I expect damaging out-of-season tornadoes; I expect periods of odd winter warmth where it hasn't been experienced before. And so on.

The winter's Northern Hemisphere weather is going to be interesting for some, inconvenient for millions--and, sadly, deadly for a few.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
358. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:00 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
356. GeorgiaStormz
2:50 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:

As an aside, thanks to you and several others for pasting here things Watts posts on his own site; by doing so, the rest of us can avoid dirtying our browsers by visiting WUWT, and that's always appreciated... ;-)


viruses?
or just you?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9738
354. Tazmanian
2:48 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
hmm no longer seeing luvtogolf posts wounder if he got bannd
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
353. SherwoodSpirit
2:46 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


LOL my username is a take on a Star Wars character actually, cause yes, I really am that much of a geek LOL even more so I suppose as is a character only found in the SW books :P


My username is geeky too. I was a big fan of the Robin of Sherwood series from the UK that was shown on Showtime in the US in the mid 80s. I joined the fan club for the show and their monthly newsletter was called Spirit of Sherwood. When I got my first internet connection in 1999 and joined my first chat channel on irc I had to come up with a username. While I was thinking about it my eyes lit on the newsletter... the rest is history.
Yes, I'm a total nerd! :D
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 399
352. wxchaser97
2:45 PM GMT on October 19, 2012
Good morning everyone, I see there is an AOI in the Atlantic and the models are still consistent with developing something but uncertain on where it goes and how strong.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7961
some of you guys need too get a life there are other things too do then being on this blog all day


like go too school

go to work


pay your bills

go shoping

or this go out on a nic drive some where too get a way from things
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting Tazmanian:



reported
Yes, and I did not mean to plus it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Here, maybe on night in the upper 60s this week and a couple late next week, but not exactly a chill this far south on the peninsula!


The rainy season has ended, however. The regular afternoon storms have abruptly ceased.


Quoting LargoFl:
nah not for my county, 60's overnight this week..but..im hoping they are wrong..50's would be a welcome break for sure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Geez.

You guys whine more about how Nea posts on here than a baby does every morning for its bottle. Just deal with it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting luvtogolf:


Once again a smart ass condecending comment. Pretty much what we would expect out of you.



reported
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
344. Skyepony (Mod)
Thousands of college kids were evacuated in China after flood collapsed their dorm. Amazing no one was hurt.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38769
Quoting luvtogolf:
Interesing...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/sea-ice-new s-volume-3-number-15-arctic-refreeze-fastest-ever/


Sea Ice News Volume 3 Number 15 – Arctic refreeze fastest ever

Posted on October 18, 2012 by Anthony Watts

After all of the news about a minimum record ice extent last month, this is interesting. As we know when water loses its ice cover, it allows a lot of heat to radiate into space as LWIR. many predictied that as a result of the extra open ocean surface, we see a very fast refreeze in the Arctic. It appears they were right. In fact, this is the fastest monthly scale refreeze rate in the NSIDC satellite record going back to 1979.


It will of course be a number of years before the deeper Arctic waters are actually warm enough to prevent a fall/winter refreeze. In fact, that may never happen; remember, those waters that are freezing over now haven't seen the sun in many weeks, nor will they for many, many more, and all the global warming in the world isn't going to change the length of the polar solar winter.

In addition to extent, Arctic sea ice area has also risen sharply over the past week, increasing by more than 850,000 square kilometers, including 455,000 km2 in the past two days alone. The four weeks from mid-October through mid-November are historically the time of greatest refreeze, with area gaining an average of a million square kilometers a week during that time. It's extremely important to note that, obviously, the overwhelming majority of ice that exists by the March maximum will be first-year ice--and first year ice is, of course, the most quickly and easily melted.

As an aside, thanks to you and several others for pasting here things Watts posts on his own site; by doing so, the rest of us can avoid dirtying our browsers by visiting WUWT, and that's always appreciated... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
342. Skyepony (Mod)
NSIDC not so optimistic, I guess adding climatology shows the doom..

Autumn over the Arctic Ocean is a season of falling temperatures and rapid growth of sea ice. However, as in recent years, low sea ice extent at the beginning of autumn means large transfers of heat to the atmosphere from open water areas, keeping the Arctic warmer than usual. Despite this warmth, freeze up is in high gear.


Winter is coming.. Here's a nice song about frost for anyone having a frosty morning or wishing for one.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38769

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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