Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

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Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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NHC discussion at 22:05 UTC of EPAC development that GFS shows. They dont go by GFS for now.



A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 89W
AND 93W HAS A LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS
THIS AREA PROGRESSES WESTWARD...THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT COMMENCING EARLY SAT. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
MEXICO-GUATEMALA BORDER BY SAT MORNING AND INDUCING N TO NE
WINDS UP TO 25 KT. THIS IS MAINTAINED WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS
THOUGH IF THE OTHER MODELS ARE CORRECT IN LESS DEVELOPMENT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE IS ROBUSTLY SPUN UP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MON WITHIN THE 12Z GFS S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
BUT REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER WITHIN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE REMAINING GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS AN E TO W
EXTENDED MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GRIDDED
FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF NO DEVELOPMENT AND
DOWNPLAY...AT THIS TIME...ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...IT
IS QUITE SHOCKING TO SEE THE GFS DEPICTING A HURRICANE BY WED
AND THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NOTHING.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13286
Line of storms forming around the DC, Baltimore and York, PA areas.... IM hoping theres lightning :D
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3263
Quoting gordydunnot:
Barefoot, paranoia will destroy ya,
LOL Um, Timothy Leary?
(Baby Boomer line removed 10/20/2012) :)

Speaking of oil production, you all know (Am I right?) there is some offshore drilling going on up north the past couple months. Shell drilling top holes on OCS while Coast Guard certifies Arctic Challenger. And there will be more fingers in the new Alaskan oil pie soon. I think the plan is to use the existing TransAlaskaPipeline to bring the crude to Valdez as has been done with North Slope oil for 35 years now.

U.S. to sell Arctic land leases in November for oil, gas production:

WASHINGTON, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The Interior Department said Thursday it plans to offer up 4.5 million acres of Arctic land for oil and gas production next month...

The Nov. 7 lease sale, a day after the presidential election, will include 400 tracts in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, an area set aside by the government for oil and gas development...

Obama ordered the Interior Department to begin holding annual lease sales in the Alaska reserve in 2011, after U.S. gasoline prices spiked.

Last year, the department auctioned 3 million acres in the reserve, earning $3.6 million in winning bids.

While the reserve was established in 1923 as a source of petroleum for the nation's military, there has never been commercial production from the area.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17483
Quoting dabirds:
Reminder for those who enjoy meteor showers, the Orionid happens this weekend, best after midnight, look to the SE. Hear Sun. morning (Sat night?) probably best. It's from Halley's comet remnants. If I'm still up from celebrating a Cardinal victory and the skies finally clear up, maybe I'll catch some tonight! Regardless, everyone enjoy your weekend and we'll see if something begins to brew up for Halloween in the tropics next week.


Thanks for posting that. Unfortunately, I have St. Louis's light pollution to my southeast, but I can still sometimes see the brighter ones in that direction if they're high enough.
If the Cards win again, I bet I'll hear the cheering clear out to where I live in St. Peters. :)
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Quoting RetiredChiefP:
Alright my weather experts, my wife needs somehelp. We both know a bit about El Nio and La Nia...but she needs a short, yet simple explanation that her students (9th grade Geography) can comprehend. Any suggestions on reference materials?

Thanks,
Chief P...(retired)


El Nino is the warming of the ocean at the equator in the Pacific that causes increased trade winds in the Atlantic, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

La Nina is the cooling of the ocean at the equator in the pacific that causes decreased trade winds in the Atlantic, and warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

Also tell her to mention, if the lesson plan brings up Hurricanes, that an El Nino or La Nina event doesn't determine hurricane activity, as this year is a El Nino(ish, but pretty technical stuff there) and it's the 5th most active hurricane season ever. Would be nice if the new generation knew not to get complacent when the news says it's an El Nino year!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Alright my weather experts, my wife needs somehelp. We both know a bit about El Niño and La Niña...but she needs a short, yet simple explanation that her students (9th grade Geography) can comprehend. Any suggestions on reference materials?

Thanks,
Chief P...(retired)
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Reminder for those who enjoy meteor showers, the Orionid happens this weekend, best after midnight, look to the SE. Hear Sun. morning (Sat night?) probably best. It's from Halley's comet remnants. If I'm still up from celebrating a Cardinal victory and the skies finally clear up, maybe I'll catch some tonight! Regardless, everyone enjoy your weekend and we'll see if something begins to brew up for Halloween in the tropics next week.
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Nothing but Easterly winds at the surface with the Twave for now.

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Quoting Skyepony:


Wings of care hasn't flown it since Oct5. It was pretty extensive that day. Govt got involded in the last two weeks. I knew it was growing, tested positive for that deep water mess. Here's the latest. Robots have it coming from the containment dome.
I knew it was an estimated 100 gallons/day but I didn't know it had reached that size. It's not being reported on very well.
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I feel like saying this, now that we've got an AOI we have to keep in mind one thing - there are a thousand things that have to happen in order, and we are on number eight, but everyone's already at number 692. Not that that's is a bad thing, but just remember first we have to get this thing to develop before we talk about track in real detail, heading to the United States or not.

My guess is that this will develop, satellite shows us that the system, which will undoubtedly be dubbed 99L within the next 48 hours in my opinion, is very broad and disorganized. That being said, it's in a very favorable environment, and hints of an anti-cyclone are already developing. If it gets into the Western Caribbean, it has rocket fuel to deal with. I'm hoping it hurries up and gets classified as an invest, so we can get a better idea what the SHIPS thinks.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
481. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting entrelac:
Is that the latest oil sheen? It's huge.


Wings of care hasn't flown it since Oct5. It was pretty extensive that day. Govt got involded in the last two weeks. I knew it was growing, tested positive for that deep water mess. Here's the latest. Robots have it coming from the containment dome.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
Hi folks,
Dr Jeff, thanks for a fine, comprehensive overview regarding factors influencing Winter and difficulties in forecasting the pre-season outlook.

I'm not surprised El Nino has failed to materialize, as I'd guess many of us were curious to see how it would respond given the ENSO correlation to the PDO phase, and appears that longer-scale pattern remaining in negative territory might be one of, if not the primary overruling factor to any significant El Nino development - (Interesting to compare "PDO Index values" with the "ENSO Years since 1950" chart) - although a residual weakly warm / neutral ENSO tendency might hold a bit. That said, I'm of belief the ENSO trend has more influence on precipitation for parts of the US and far less than the credit it's given on temperature, as we've seen poorer correlation historically on the latter and such expectations being overwhelmed by other influences, particularly what occurs in the N Atlantic / Arctic.

Great points made including the AO / NAO and AMO influences. Without getting into greater detail it deserves - my time too short to delve into it now - but one other very strong influence that gets far too little discussion is the tremendous control the ocean conveyor-belt circulation / Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current / Thermohaline Circulation has on our climate, which I believe the AMO is most likely a byproduct of - Positive, high volume transport AMOC over time = warm AMO / Negative, weak transport AMOC over time = cool AMO. Personally, I'm convinced the AMO produces wide-ranging, lasting effects spanning the N Hemisphere weather / climate, but likely pales in comparison to it's parent mechanism - the ocean conveyor circulation. One aspect of the many studies I've viewed over the years indicate our present high-volume mode of warm, highly-saline water transport well into the N Atlantic and Arctic - particularly into the Barents region, where greatest oceanic-atmospheric interaction occurs - might also help explain a lot of odd responses we're seeing, such as with the jet stream deviations, anomalous ridging, etc... Plus it just seems more than a coincidence we're seeing such extreme losses of ice, warmer weather-climate patterns knowing the warm / saline Atlantic water transport continues at high volume mode, essentially replacing the Arctic's fresher, cooler regime.

Again, IMHO, this subject deserves a great more attention and investigation than it receives when evaluating weather, climate change causes and major influences - plus the rather blunt acknowledgment that our best scientific understanding of such a long-recognized climate influence remains so uncertain, difficult to make observations, hard to model and totally unpredictable regarding future changes as it's shown ability to lock into one mode spanning decades to centuries... yet could flip from positive to negative mode within a decade with very uncertain consequences...

Just wanted to say hello and thanks!

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Quoting bappit:
Came across this pic of ... guess what? What strikes me is how how much of Louisiana has disappeared. The maps are out of date--or my memories are.

Is that the latest oil sheen? It's huge.
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Oh mittbvenruodo, (?sp)
Had no idea about your handle. In its original form as shown in theaters in 1977, Star Wars is pure creative myth and a classic film that broke ground in many ways. Beyond that, the characters and stories did not hold my interest. Fantasy is not my cup of tea. And, speaking of tea, have fun over there somewhere across the pond.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17483
Came across this pic of ... guess what? What strikes me is how how much of Louisiana has disappeared. The maps are out of date--or my memories are.

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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
NOtober!

Some wise words there amongst the satire.
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NOtober!

Quoting ncstorm:
I am really disliking the blog with the worshipping of several posters..Aussie never called anyone a Liar including Dr. Masters..I even took 30 minutes out of my time from work to read the entire blog where the alleged name calling of Dr. Masters supposedly took place. Please read for yourself..

I just wish people would have a mind of their own and not go on heresy from a poster just to be in the "in crowd" on WU which sounds ridiculous if you ask me..remember, just because someone says it on the internet doesnt make it true..

Have a blessed day and remember to be kind to others!
I'm in with The In Crowd and it's so much fun. First you have to be here 7 years, then you get a special wumail invite. They swear you to secrecy and then, and then... Well, I shouldn't really say all this, but you get all the secret (dirty) jokes and gossip by wumail, and a secret weather decoder ring and everything. But if you plus the wrong people, they will never, ever, ever send you a invite or a secret decoder ring or any of it, no matter how many years you been here. :P

But watch. Some are trolls who can turn on you in a quick minute and will try to screw up your life. Especially don't admit you blog from work, because then they really got something on you. Don't ever tell them where you work, and don't ever post a pitcher of yourself because they'll save that and use it against you. OK, got that?
:)

I hope everyone has a good weekend.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17483
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Cybr, you think what 12z Euro shows is a full blown hurricane or may be extratropical?


A very, very, very potent extra-tropical system, probably will become a nor'easter, a powerful one at that if the Euro is right.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Technically things are pretty favorable for East Coast snow right now. Strongly negative NAO (AO is also negative which is good).



Also looks like the CPC is backing off some on the warmth they had been showing, especially at the 8-14 day time frame when they show cold air for much of the northern part of the country:



Obviously we would need a storm system to develop, but even if that happened the one factor working against us, which at this time of year is more powerful than anything I've mentioned so far, is climatology. It's just too early for snow at this point.

It won't be too long before the East Coast begins to get cold. I'm expecting a couple significant snowstorms this season, as opposed to last year at least.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30246
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Snowtober??!!!

Technically things are pretty favorable for East Coast snow right now. Strongly negative NAO (AO is also negative which is good).



Also looks like the CPC is backing off some on the warmth they had been showing, especially at the 8-14 day time frame when they show cold air for much of the northern part of the country:



Obviously we would need a storm system to develop, but even if that happened the one factor working against us, which at this time of year is more powerful than anything I've mentioned so far, is climatology. It's just too early for snow at this point.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not cold enough yet.

Snowtober??!!!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

6z GFS showed snow:


YAY!! I llok forward to it but then again, I almost never have that kind of luck with these far-out systems :(
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

aawwww why not?

6z GFS showed snow:

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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

aawwww why not?

Not cold enough yet.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30246
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

aawwww why not?
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
If you look at the Satellite this afternoon and the Buoy readings in the Caribbean, I'd say our last and possibly biggest Hurrah's for the season is taking shape.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

May be extratropical.


By the way, even if it is still a fully tropical cyclone at that time, let's not forget that the ECMWF has a high intensity bias with storms off the East Coast and in the Subtropical Atlantic.

Remember when it said Leslie would become a Category 5...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30246
Cybr, you think what 12z Euro shows is a full blown hurricane or may be extratropical?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13286
449. Not even going to bother responding to that one. Just taking the bait.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

snow??!!

No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30246
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

May be extratropical.


snow??!!
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Only 5 to 10 knots of shear in the SW Caribbean now

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Yeah, this is off topic, but since people are complaining that the blog is slow ...

For the wonks out there, if you want to know more about the alternatives for protecting the environment:

Property Rights, Regulations, and Incentive Policies

"Every policy is unique and deserves detailed individual analysis in the policymaking process—the devil is always in the details. However, economists have developed a taxonomy of policy types. This taxonomy helps us to understand general principles about how policies of different types are likely to perform and under which circumstances they are likely to work best."

Even the so-called policy of Do Nothing is still a policy. People who advocate Do Nothing are just advancing an unstated agenda: "Ignore the man behind the curtain!"
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Euro at 240 hours has a powerful hurricane off the U.S East Coast. It starts developing at 96 hours South of Jamaica.



The 12Z Euro flip flops between a system that heads to the NE over or near Jamaica to one in the SW Caribbean near Nicaragua and back again, ultimately ending up with two distinct systems in each place.

I would want to see future runs settle down as the current solution does not make a lot of sense that close together.
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12z CMC out to 180 hours
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

May be extratropical.


In that model output the low off the US is too small and too deep to be extratropical.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Look south of Hawaii



Thank you, the way I scrolled down, there was actually a speck of dirt on my screen due south of Hawaii. I got it off.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Euro at 240 hours has a powerful hurricane off the U.S East Coast. It starts developing at 96 hours South of Jamaica.


May be extratropical.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30246
12z Euro at 240 hours has a powerful hurricane off the U.S East Coast. It starts developing at 96 hours South of Jamaica.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13286
Look south of Hawaii

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
something by the Bahamas... Epac Emilia-like hurricane

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
436. Link
Problem solved.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
445. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
the ones florida worries about are gulf of mexico storms, this time of year, most will cross florida at some point, if a carribean storm formed and moved into the gulf, we worry alot lol


agree use wilma as a perfect example and the fronts are the same as they were when she hit fl so now escpecialy fl needs to have their guard up imo fl should get at least one system before its over
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33326
Quoting 12george1:
So does a hurricane in Florida at the end of October look more likely with that system in the Caribbean?
the ones florida worries about are gulf of mexico storms, this time of year, most will cross florida at some point, if a carribean storm formed and moved into the gulf, we worry alot lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33326

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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