Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

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Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting etxwx:
Good evening all...time for a newsbreak?

UK experiences 'weirdest' weather
18 October 2012 By Roger Harrabin BBC

Excerpt: "We have to get our heads round the possibility now that we're going to have to move very quickly from drought to flood - with river levels very high and very low over a short period of time." (comments are from Paul Mustow, head of flood management at the Environment Agency)

"We used to say we had a traditional flood season in winter - now often it's in summer. This is an integrated problem - there's no one thing that's going to solve it. The situation is changing all the time."

But scientists present from the Met Office and CEH said not much could be read into the weird weather. Terry Marsh from CEH said: "Rainfall charts show no compelling long-term trend - the annual precipitation table shows lots of variability."

Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that it did not discern any pattern that suggested Man-made climate change was at play in UK rainfall - although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain.

She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold, drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years.

"Longer term we will see a trend to drier summers but superimposed on that we will always see natural variability," she said.


When I was in the UK in 1991(6weeks) and 1997(4weeks), it rained 75% of the time. I remember traveling from Manchester to Edinburgh, once we crossed the boarder it started to rain, as if Scotland was saying welcome, this is how our weather is. Both times I was there it was in mid to late summer.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1994 Hurricane Gordon track:

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Invest 95B





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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It will be important to see where the low pressure forms as that will have implications on both intensity and track. IMO,if it forms west of 75W it may miss the trough and not lift NE but if it forms east of 75W it will be the contrary.
Agree, they are plenty of storms in the past to support both solutions. Even though there will be high pressure to the north this trough coming through FL. now is expected to carve a huge weakness in the Central Atlantic, so this storm would be inclined to take the path of least resistance. However, if the base of that high expands just far enough east it could force the storm back west before eventually turning back towards the northeast in advance of another cold front.
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:)
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Quoting etxwx:
Good evening all...time for a newsbreak?

UK experiences 'weirdest' weather
18 October 2012 By Roger Harrabin BBC

Excerpt: "We have to get our heads round the possibility now that we're going to have to move very quickly from drought to flood - with river levels very high and very low over a short period of time." (comments are from Paul Mustow, head of flood management at the Environment Agency)

"We used to say we had a traditional flood season in winter - now often it's in summer. This is an integrated problem - there's no one thing that's going to solve it. The situation is changing all the time."

But scientists present from the Met Office and CEH said not much could be read into the weird weather. Terry Marsh from CEH said: "Rainfall charts show no compelling long-term trend - the annual precipitation table shows lots of variability."

Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that it did not discern any pattern that suggested Man-made climate change was at play in UK rainfall - although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain.

She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold, drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years.

"Longer term we will see a trend to drier summers but superimposed on that we will always see natural variability," she said.


Except in North Wales where it just seems to get more wet wet wet!! The mildew I have to keep cleaning indoors and mold taking hold on everything...ARGH!! LOL
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Oh golly, the blog and 6 pages upon getting home. But in bed right away as have to be in earlier than usual tomorrow, so no time to look back at what's going on. So will say though from what I saw in this page...Wash surely NOT happy at the winter outlook?! I hope bwrong and your snowstorm comes!!! Still the same waiting to see what happens in W Carrib...and Aussie...I don't always agree with your opinion and probably agree with say Neo's opinions more, even if I don't say so, but glad you're staying.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
Both AOI's actually look pretty good right now. I wonder if the CMC model is correct in predicting that they both would develop into potentially potent tropical systems.


From what I can tell...looks like the central Atlantic AOI is doing really well in reduced shear and split flow upper divergence just NE of the upper vortex. It may develop first over the Caribbean AOI. Of course...I can't verify this because the HDW-H (upper-level high density winds product) isn't working on GOES-13!
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584. etxwx
Good evening all...time for a newsbreak?

UK experiences 'weirdest' weather
18 October 2012 By Roger Harrabin BBC

Excerpt: "We have to get our heads round the possibility now that we're going to have to move very quickly from drought to flood - with river levels very high and very low over a short period of time." (comments are from Paul Mustow, head of flood management at the Environment Agency)

"We used to say we had a traditional flood season in winter - now often it's in summer. This is an integrated problem - there's no one thing that's going to solve it. The situation is changing all the time."

But scientists present from the Met Office and CEH said not much could be read into the weird weather. Terry Marsh from CEH said: "Rainfall charts show no compelling long-term trend - the annual precipitation table shows lots of variability."

Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that it did not discern any pattern that suggested Man-made climate change was at play in UK rainfall - although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain.

She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold, drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years.

"Longer term we will see a trend to drier summers but superimposed on that we will always see natural variability," she said.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Definitely needs to be watched. The MJO is very active now and that coincides with a historical secondary peak of the season. Three reliable models have been harping on something spinning up in the SW Caribbean.

Sunday and later is the timeline for potential development.



It will be important to see where the low pressure forms as that will have implications on both intensity and track. IMO,if it forms west of 75W it may miss the trough and not lift NE but if it forms east of 75W it will be the contrary.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
Once again...GOES-13 stinks...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4. html

The HDW-H...HDW-M...and so forth (high density wind products) are not working again. I think this happens a lot more with GOES-13 than any of the other GOES satellites...
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Quoting kmanislander:


Definitely needs to be watched. The MJO is very active now and that coincides with a historical secondary peak of the season. Three reliable models have been harping on something spinning up in the SW Caribbean.

Sunday and later is the timeline for potential development.



Fate rarely calls upon us at a moment of our Choosing
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Models seem to show this potential new system emerge at about the same time as another one in the Pacific (next name up is Rosa, #17)... Can anyone comment on potential conditions there, I saw several runs really deepen whatever develops over there...
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


WHO.....

WHA ?
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WHO.....
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6037
Quoting kmanislander:


Definitely needs to be watched. The MJO is very active now and that coincides with a historical secondary peak of the season. Three reliable models have been harping on something spinning up in the SW Caribbean.

Sunday and later is the timeline for potential development.


True, all that.
Lots of potential in the coming days in that area.
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Quoting pcola57:


Like the genie of lore..
Just speak the name and you magically appear..LOL
May the fairest of winds blow your way the rest of this oddest of years my friend.. :)
Glad your in the clear..I must go to attend the duties at hand but will return when possible.. :)

Thank you, Dear Fellow!
And may you enjoy the bruits of your duties.

Have a great weekend!
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Quoting pcola57:
Looks like we have something to watch in the Carribean..
shear is lessening..
20%..
Any opinion on it yet Keeper?
Never mind I see your post at #563..
Wonder what kman and pottery will think..


Definitely needs to be watched. The MJO is very active now and that coincides with a historical secondary peak of the season. Three reliable models have been harping on something spinning up in the SW Caribbean.

Sunday and later is the timeline for potential development.

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Both AOI's actually look pretty good right now. I wonder if the CMC model is correct in predicting that they both would develop into potentially potent tropical systems.
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Quoting pottery:

Pottery is happy that it's west of him.....

heheheheheh


Like the genie of lore..
Just speak the name and you magically appear..LOL
May the fairest of winds blow your way the rest of this oddest of years my friend.. :)
Glad your in the clear..I must go to attend the duties at hand but will return when possible.. :)
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Quoting pcola57:
Looks like we have something to watch in the Carribean..
shear is lessening..
20%..
Any opinion on it yet Keeper?
Never mind I see your post at #563..
Wonder what kman and pottery will think..

Pottery is happy that it's west of him.....

heheheheheh
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Very moist enviroment..





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Looks like we have something to watch in the Carribean..
shear is lessening..
20%..
Any opinion on it yet Keeper?
Never mind I see your post at #563..
Wonder what kman and pottery will think..
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

PAC011-200130-
/O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-121020T0130Z/
BERKS PA-
918 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY...

AT 917 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
LYONS...OR 8 MILES EAST OF READING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LYONS BY 930 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 7574 4043 7561 4033 7574 4039 7587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 219DEG 19KT 4038 7578

$$
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hope you like it... :)

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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Oct 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. Multiple low-level C-class
flares occurred, including a C3 flare at 19/2052Z from an
un-numbered region beyond the southeast limb. Region 1596
(N08E60), an Eko/Beta-Gamma spot group, showed intermediate spot
growth and was the most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk. Several CMEs were observed on LASCO C2 imagery, however, none
are believed to be Earth-directed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare during the
forecast period (20-23 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 600 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive with maximum
deflections near /-2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (20 October). Days 2 and 3 (21-22
October) should see an increase to quiet to unsettled levels due to
the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green





Credit;
Solarham.net
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I didn't notice this when I was posting the frames earlier, but the 18z GFS actually brought a hurricane into Mexico:



And that is the low that ends up in the Gulf:



And then the South:



And then the North:



Quite the little journey that system takes.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't think so...it's very broad


it will be an area of interest
for at least 12 maybe 24 hrs
lots of time to see
what happens if anything
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All i have to say is... HOLY CRAP...... The tornadic warned storm near Baltimore earlier this evening... i went through it... Ive never seen it rain soo hard and soo much lightning before...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't think so...it's very broad


Agreed.There is no defined low pressure at the moment to pin down and make it as the focus for a invest.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
Quoting allancalderini:
Should be an invest very soon the Caribbean system.


I don't think so...it's very broad
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I have to que in on this. I am one of them that sit and stay in the background and read. I look forward coming on here to see what you post and all, so please don't go anywhere. These folks have chased away a lot of people cause they get tired of all the bull hockey. There jerks and don't have a life, really there a joke. So you just stay and we will just - and report them every chance we get. Well that's what I do. I know the good guys from the very childish and ignorant ones.

sheri


Thanks you and everyone for your kind words. This is the reason I have decided to stay.
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XXL/AOI/XX/XX
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If this happens at Ft. Pierce tomorrow night, it will wreck our fundraiser. That is 3 inch an hour rain rate.



Six inches, and adding up fast;

Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2541
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Seeing more of a windshift than earlier.
I agree.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Seeing more of a windshift than earlier.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Kind of a crazy run... look at the storm in the south by 324 hours:



The GFS had been hinting at this for a couple days now. I noticed our 384hr ptot go from 1.25 inches to over 6.00 here in the Houston area today. I'm open arms for that if it comes true.
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Chubby.

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Quoting Patrap:
Weather or knot ?


92C


92C Rainbow Floater Loop dee Loop






its not 92C any more
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Weather or knot ?


92C


92C Rainbow Floater Loop dee Loop



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Quoting wxchaser97:
Well that is one of the smallest ovals I have ever seen for a TWO, sarcasm flag is on.


That means the low may form on anyplace within the circle. But I suspect that as time goes by,they will turn the circle smaller.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
Well that is one of the smallest ovals I have ever seen for a TWO, sarcasm flag is on.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_cp922012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210191218
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
BROAD DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Should be an invest very soon the Caribbean system.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4341
Invest 99L around the corner now.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
BROAD DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.