Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

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Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
You mean like this?

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210201230
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992012
AL, 99, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 155N, 725W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Thank you Nea. I wonder what the pressure is in this AOI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Caribbean disturbance will likely be declared an invest very soon (possibly within the next hour) as they have generally been making systems like this invests after they bump them up to medium.
You mean like this?

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210201230
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992012
AL, 99, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 155N, 725W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7819
The Caribbean disturbance will likely be declared an invest very soon (possibly within the next hour) as they have generally been making systems like this invests after they bump them up to medium.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735
8 to 10 days
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. While this is highly unlikely to verify, check out the 0z CMC run... it brings future Sandy into the NE as an epic Nor'easter- 956mb in the second image at 204 hours!





OMG!!! I don't want that to happen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The other AOI up to 20%.

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT
1000 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14213
Code orange!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. While this is highly unlikely to verify, check out the 0z CMC run... it brings future Sandy into the NE as an epic Nor'easter- 956mb in the second image at 204 hours!



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Morning...our system in the Caribbean is coming together nicely.



I actually fell asleep with my laptop opened up on my bed and all of a sudden woke up and realized it and that I had clothes in the washer that I needed to take out to put in the dryer.


Good morning. There is also spin in the EPAC area and that may be the system GFS develops there. In other words,very interesting times ahead in both basins.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14213
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37962
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37962
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37962
Well, it was fun while it lasted. Back to blogging today, it seems.

But first, sleep!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37962
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Morning...our system in the Caribbean is coming together nicely.



I actually fell asleep with my laptop opened up on my bed and all of a sudden woke up and realized it and that I had clothes in the washer that I needed to take out to put in the dryer.
...good morning GT and everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37962
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37962
Good Morning...our system in the Caribbean is coming together nicely.



I actually fell asleep with my laptop opened up on my bed and all of a sudden woke up and realized it and that I had clothes in the washer that I needed to take out to put in the dryer.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting KoritheMan:


It'll be most interesting to see if this works in real-time. Kinda hard to accept their purported notion of a 14% increase in snowfall when they really didn't give the details. Furthermore, one seemingly successful attempt doesn't really directly correlate with cloud seeding, either.

If repeatability shows results, I will be a little more convinced.

When clouds drop rain or snow where they would not normally, then other areas are bound to be deprived!
Add to this the facts that other areas will not receive the shade of passing clouds and the atmospheric moisture content will probably drop in other areas,this will probably produce a knock on effect somewhere.
There is the common analogy that if you take enough water out of a river for irrigation etc, eventually the river will not reach the sea. I think this happens with the Colorado river.
Tampering with rain/water patterns for short term human benefits can lead to long term problems. Remember the Aral Sea?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
A very beautiful day here in the SE Pacific. Places in inner Queensland and Western Australia are having very hot weather, 110F in some places.


Loop
Deep purple means mega hot.

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

In Other news....

Permanent cloud-seeding gets green light

A plan to boost snowfall in the New South Wales Snowy Mountains has passed through State Parliament.

The Government announced last month that cloud seeding trials had proved successful and that it would seek to make the process permanent.

The Member for Monaro, John Barilaro, says the trial resulted in a 14 per-cent increase in snowfall.

He says the legislation will help safeguard the region's ski industry.
It is great for tourism and great for the local economy, Mr Barilaro said.
There are other benefits of course such as the alpine environment with the extra snow depth.
That'll mean when the snow melts, there'll be additional water for our river systems, for the dams, for the environment.
There is also another benefit about green energies through the hydro electric reduction that comes out of the snowy scheme."
The State opposition has welcomed the cloud-seeding legislation.
The former Member for Monaro and Opposition spokesman for Primary Industries, Steve Whan, says the plan to increase snowfalls will boost water flows and snow cover.
I moved a small amendment which the government accepted to ensure that if there are different elements used as the chemicals that they would be properly tested, he said.
Apart from that it went through very smoothly and I'm very pleased that this - initially a Labor initiative - is allowing cloud-seeding.

It has now turned into a permanent feature of the winter in the Snowy Mountains."

%uFFFD ABC 2012


It'll be most interesting to see if this works in real-time. Kinda hard to accept their purported notion of a 14% increase in snowfall when they really didn't give the details. Furthermore, one seemingly successful attempt doesn't really directly correlate with cloud seeding, either.

If repeatability shows results, I will be a little more convinced.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Lake Michigan is still staying warmer or as warm as the past 2 decade average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

In Other news....

Permanent cloud-seeding gets green light

A plan to boost snowfall in the New South Wales Snowy Mountains has passed through State Parliament.

The Government announced last month that cloud seeding trials had proved successful and that it would seek to make the process permanent.

The Member for Monaro, John Barilaro, says the trial resulted in a 14 per-cent increase in snowfall.

He says the legislation will help safeguard the region's ski industry.
It is great for tourism and great for the local economy, Mr Barilaro said.
There are other benefits of course such as the alpine environment with the extra snow depth.
That'll mean when the snow melts, there'll be additional water for our river systems, for the dams, for the environment.
There is also another benefit about green energies through the hydro electric reduction that comes out of the snowy scheme."
The State opposition has welcomed the cloud-seeding legislation.
The former Member for Monaro and Opposition spokesman for Primary Industries, Steve Whan, says the plan to increase snowfalls will boost water flows and snow cover.
I moved a small amendment which the government accepted to ensure that if there are different elements used as the chemicals that they would be properly tested, he said.
Apart from that it went through very smoothly and I'm very pleased that this - initially a Labor initiative - is allowing cloud-seeding.

It has now turned into a permanent feature of the winter in the Snowy Mountains."

© ABC 2012


I wonder what happens to other regions when water vapor that wasn't supposed to be precipitation gets seeded into snow. Hopefully no unintended consequences arise like increased desertification.

I still think we know far too little to be modifying our weather for economic boosts when it could easily cause the opposite in the long run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A very beautiful day here in the SE Pacific. Places in inner Queensland and Western Australia are having very hot weather, 110F in some places.


Loop
Deep purple means mega hot.

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

In Other news....

Permanent cloud-seeding gets green light

A plan to boost snowfall in the New South Wales Snowy Mountains has passed through State Parliament.

The Government announced last month that cloud seeding trials had proved successful and that it would seek to make the process permanent.

The Member for Monaro, John Barilaro, says the trial resulted in a 14 per-cent increase in snowfall.

He says the legislation will help safeguard the region's ski industry.
It is great for tourism and great for the local economy, Mr Barilaro said.
There are other benefits of course such as the alpine environment with the extra snow depth.
That'll mean when the snow melts, there'll be additional water for our river systems, for the dams, for the environment.
There is also another benefit about green energies through the hydro electric reduction that comes out of the snowy scheme."
The State opposition has welcomed the cloud-seeding legislation.
The former Member for Monaro and Opposition spokesman for Primary Industries, Steve Whan, says the plan to increase snowfalls will boost water flows and snow cover.
I moved a small amendment which the government accepted to ensure that if there are different elements used as the chemicals that they would be properly tested, he said.
Apart from that it went through very smoothly and I'm very pleased that this - initially a Labor initiative - is allowing cloud-seeding.

It has now turned into a permanent feature of the winter in the Snowy Mountains."

ABC 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh, the vast emptiness!
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol, wish I could sleep. Still trying to get out of my 5:30pm-5:30am work schedule from the Summer. Getting to sleep before sunrise is always a plus.

Nothing going on with the tropic/blog yet, but that is sure to change fairly soon. Favorable conditions plus a strong MJO in our area, not to be ignored.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS INTERACTING WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS BROAD DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I have a feeling this is going to be a tough one to track.

It could be, but of course this is just one run. It should be an interesting week for sure.

Quoting AussieStorm:

I won't pay attention much to what the models say until something actually forms.

I'm not until it forms, plus this is in fantasy land anyway. It is getting closer to the time of development though than before.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting wxchaser97:
The GFS has been consistent with sending the remnants of a hurricane over Mexico toward the US.



I won't pay attention much to what the models say until something actually forms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
At 192hrs we get two tropical storm to form from one area of low pressure. It comes from the multiple lows in the post below. One storm heads toward Fl and the other out to sea.

I have a feeling this is going to be a tough one to track.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GraduateStudent2012:
Good morning, ^_^.

Good Afternoon from a very beautifully blue sky Sydney.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GFS has been consistent with sending the remnants of a hurricane over Mexico toward the US.


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
276hrs and one TS is lifted north, not hitting FL, and the other continues slowly E. Also something makes landfall in Mexico.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
At 192hrs we get two tropical storm to form from one area of low pressure. It comes from the multiple lows in the post below. One storm heads toward Fl and the other out to sea.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting GraduateStudent2012:
Good morning, ^_^.

A good afternoon to everyone. LOL
The blog has become much more quiet after Rafael.
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GFS does a split near Cuba and Hispaniola at 138hrs.


At 168hrs we have multiple competing lows near Bermuda.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...6 am?


Well, that's an hour isn't it?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...6 am?

Some people do get up that early, unlike you. It is actually pretty nice weather wise in the morning.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, for one it doesn't lowest temperature until just before sunrise, which is about 600AM. So yes, I guess jogging at night.

...6 am?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Jogging at night?


Well, for one it doesn't get to lowest temperature until just before sunrise, which is about 600AM. So yes, I guess jogging at night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS 24 hrs.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blatant shock, the NWS is forecasting it to get down to the 50s in my area in Florida. Finally, good jogging weather.

Jogging at night?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blatant shock, the NWS is forecasting it to get down to the 50s in my area in Florida. Finally, good jogging weather.
And good weather for the Trick or Treaters. I know you can get hot in some of those costumes.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Blatant shock, the NWS is forecasting it to get down to the 50s in my area in Florida. Finally, good jogging weather.

SATURDAY
NIGHT

Mostly
Clear
Low: 54 F
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00Z is coming out now!:)
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


From what I can tell...looks like the central Atlantic AOI is doing really well in reduced shear and split flow upper divergence just NE of the upper vortex. It may develop first over the Caribbean AOI. Of course...I can't verify this because the HDW-H (upper-level high density winds product) isn't working on GOES-13!


Yeah, it looks impressive right now, if this keeps up I think it can surprise everyone, but I'm not sure how long it can survive where it is, at this time in October.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
594. etxwx
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Except in North Wales where it just seems to get more wet wet wet!! The mildew I have to keep cleaning indoors and mold taking hold on everything...ARGH!! LOL


I hear ya, mitt. It's never a good thing when what you thought were your fuzzy slippers turn out to be your leather shoes. You are welcome to send all that rain to Texas...we'll happily send ya some nice dry weather in return. :-)
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I know this is in fantasy land, but look how far south the 534 line is and there is moisture north of it.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting etxwx:
Good evening all...time for a newsbreak?

UK experiences 'weirdest' weather
18 October 2012 By Roger Harrabin BBC

Excerpt: "We have to get our heads round the possibility now that we're going to have to move very quickly from drought to flood - with river levels very high and very low over a short period of time." (comments are from Paul Mustow, head of flood management at the Environment Agency)

"We used to say we had a traditional flood season in winter - now often it's in summer. This is an integrated problem - there's no one thing that's going to solve it. The situation is changing all the time."

But scientists present from the Met Office and CEH said not much could be read into the weird weather. Terry Marsh from CEH said: "Rainfall charts show no compelling long-term trend - the annual precipitation table shows lots of variability."

Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that it did not discern any pattern that suggested Man-made climate change was at play in UK rainfall - although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain.

She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold, drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years.

"Longer term we will see a trend to drier summers but superimposed on that we will always see natural variability," she said.


When I was in the UK in 1991(6weeks) and 1997(4weeks), it rained 75% of the time. I remember traveling from Manchester to Edinburgh, once we crossed the boarder it started to rain, as if Scotland was saying welcome, this is how our weather is. Both times I was there it was in mid to late summer.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.