Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

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Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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#38 - That is excellent news!

Three cheers for GOES-13 (and the capable engineers and scientists who brought her back into service)!!



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Nice! I love cold winters in South Florida. Especially when South Floridians don't know how to cover up.
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Link for #38

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1210/18goes13 /
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Lots of high wind warnings out for the Plains:





High winds indeed. Look at how hard this poor anemometer near Nederland had to work yesterday:



Looks like the winds are finally slowing down for us, but I'll be fetching my woodpile tarps and patio furniture from the woods when I get home tonight...
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GOES 13 weather satellite returned to service

BY STEPHEN CLARK
SPACEFLIGHT NOW
Posted: October 18, 2012


NOAA restored the GOES 13 weather satellite to full operations Thursday after correcting an anomaly in the craft's sounding instrument, which knocked the critical observatory out of service in September
 
According to an update on NOAA's website, the satellite was inserted back into the two-satellite operational GOES constellation at 1444 GMT (10:44 a.m. EDT) Thursday by controllers at the agency's control center in Suitland, Md.

GOES 13, which is located in geostationary orbit at 75 degrees west longitude, was put in standby mode Sept. 23 after noise appeared in imaging and atmospheric sounding data from the satellite.

A backup satellite named GOES 14 took over operational duties covering the U.S. East Coast and the Atlantic Ocean while engineers from NOAA, Boeing Co. and ITT Exelis investigated the problem.

According to NOAA, the trouble was caused by a vibration from aging lubricant in the sounder instrument, and engineers devised an "outgas" procedure to improve the data.

"For GOES 13 and its sister satellites, we now have an early detection process that will enable us to take early action to prevent a similar occurrence in the future," said John Leslie, a NOAA spokesperson.

Leslie said the anomaly in the sounder filter wheel will have no lifetime effect on the instrument. GOES 13 launched in May 2006 and is designed for a 10-year life.
...

"The engineers have worked hard to understand and correct the problem, and now data from both the imager and sounder will flow shortly to our key user, NOAA's National Weather Service," said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator of NOAA's satellite and information service, before GOES 13's transition back into operations.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Afternoon everybody Nice to see the blog topic switch to winter. Can anyone who knows tell me if E. North Carolina is going to have another above average winter(temps)or will it be an average year?
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Fresh new blog :) cool. hope they are no fights in this one.
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Quoting MrMixon:


Oh yeah, I didn't want to suggest that bread bags and spray on starch weren't clever and workable solutions to the problems winter presents. :)

But yes, if you dislike winter it might be because you haven't tried a winter expedition in the proper gear. Going out in the mountains during the winter is sort of like exploring space... it's beautiful, but it's decidedly uncomfortable if you're not properly attired.


My favorite part was how quiet it was after a heavy snow. (in the hills that are called the appalachian mountains behind our house) Even more calming was hearing large fluffy flakes pittering all around in the tree branches.
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
152 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC001-059-073-111-141-182045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0397.121018T1752Z-121018T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-JAYUYA PR-PENUELAS PR-UTUADO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-
152 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...JAYUYA...PENUELAS...UTUADO AND ADJUNTAS

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 149 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
AREA. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED
LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6680 1830 6659 1817 6658 1815 6668
1806 6672 1803 6679

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15476
Quoting suzi46:
soooo, after reading all the info above, the bottomline is that we should go out and catch a Woolley Bear Caterpillar!!! LOL...gotta love all the technology we have today..sure makes forecasting a whole lot easier..hahaha!!!


Is it daddy long legs that I'm thinking of? Some insect, if you killed them meant it would rain. Old age I guess.
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Quoting goosegirl1:
It just occured to me- Mr. Mixon was telling us that proper gear is the key to surviving and enjoying winter, while the rest of us were talking about bread bags, spray starch, too many clothes and garbage can lids! Maybe our advice isn't so good after all. But hey, we all survived our childhood, so it can't have been all bad.


And it all made us what we are today. A big part of those times was the socialization that came with it. Not all of it was good, but it taught us how to interact with others. I still think alot of what goes on in the schools, and movie theaters and public places starts because kids don't have those social interactions as much now. They spend all day staring at a computer, and there isn't any penalty for acting like a dofus.

I have alot of friends that post the most ridiculous and hurtful things online, not thinking one bit about how others may take it, and then you see them out and tey are completely different. It's an odd world now.

But that's not really weather related.
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..."Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years."

So I take it this winter's forecast is still pretty much in doubt? Honestly I also though we would be in an El-Nino by now and that the tropical season would be coming to an end, but there was one other time where even a weak El-Nino formed and the season didn't come to an abrupt end, that year was 1969.
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29. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Dodabear:
Thanks Doctor Masters.

I have a question based on part of your comment.

"Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years."

Does that hold any validity for using analogs for other weather related occurrences? Hurricanes and tornado outbreaks for instance?


I don't know. The CSU Gray/Klotzback team talks about analogue years all the time; perhaps the method has more validity for hurricane seasons.

Jeff Masters
Quoting nickharger:
I have the answer for this winter's weather

Chance of snow.


lol you might be right!
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Hi Dr Masters,

Is there data available back before 2000 for the solar cycle? I see the Sunspot Number and Radio Flux seem to move together during this last 11 year cycle. I was wondering if there is further correlation with previous cycles. Also, how does the magnitude of the lows and peaks influence the climate?

I posted this on the last blog:

New Computer for Climate Change Analysis

Do you think this will give them the ability to factor more influences in and thus become even more accurate?
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Quoting goosegirl1:
It just occured to me- Mr. Mixon was telling us that proper gear is the key to surviving and enjoying winter, while the rest of us were talking about bread bags, spray starch, too many clothes and garbage can lids! Maybe our advise isn't so good after all. But hey, we all survived our childhood, so it can't have been all bad.


Oh yeah, I didn't want to suggest that bread bags and spray on starch weren't clever and workable solutions to the problems winter presents. :)

But yes, if you dislike winter it might be because you haven't tried a winter expedition in the proper gear. Going out in the mountains during the winter is sort of like exploring space... it's beautiful, but it's decidedly uncomfortable if you're not properly attired.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
soooo, after reading all the info above, the bottomline is that we should go out and catch a Woolley Bear Caterpillar!!! LOL...gotta love all the technology we have today..sure makes forecasting a whole lot easier..hahaha!!!
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Thanks Dr. Masters, I can't wait for winter.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981


So, you think YOU are having a bad day?
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
It just occured to me- Mr. Mixon was telling us that proper gear is the key to surviving and enjoying winter, while the rest of us were talking about bread bags, spray starch, too many clothes and garbage can lids! Maybe our advice isn't so good after all. But hey, we all survived our childhood, so it can't have been all bad.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Who is promoting tensions? I see Grothar provided a definition of Cyberbullying which is what some of the folks on the previous blog were doing.


KW, much respect to you but I didnt see anyone cyberbulling on the previous blog..to use that definition is only inflaming false fires..I guess you cant disagree with people on here and have an opinion because now its called cyberbulling??...I believe the discussions were debated and left at that and I know I only saw one person call someone a name who isnt even a blogger on this forum..

this blog can be ridiculous at times, good grief Charlie Brown..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16370
I have the answer for this winter's weather

Chance of snow.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Who is promoting tensions? I see Grothar provided a definition of Cyberbullying which is what some of the folks on the previous blog were doing.


Ah sorry that wasn't clear - the person trying to escalate things had posted on the previous blog and for better or worse I (and I think Grothar) provided a sideways response here on the new blog to their inappropriate suggestion that this is a good forum for purposely aggravating people with whom you disagree.

Also, look, weather:





:)
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If my area (the TN Valley) has a "normal" winter temperature, it will appear to be significantly cooler than the last several years.

Not much else to think about since we're at above normal precipitiation for most of the area. That's great considering the droughts not too far from us in most every direction.

I hear catfish in the Missippippi have be caught with ticks on them since the water is so low :-)
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Quoting kwgirl:
Who is promoting tensions? I see Grothar provided a definition of Cyberbullying which is what some of the folks on the previous blog were doing.


He's referring to a post on the previous blog, although I hate to draw attention back to it.
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
110 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC043-075-113-149-181915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0396.121018T1710Z-121018T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COAMO PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-VILLALBA PR-
110 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND VILLALBA

* UNTIL 315 PM AST

* AT 108 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. A RAIN GAGE IN COAMO MEASURED AN INCH OF RAIN
IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6664 1810 6630 1804 6634 1805 6668

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15476
Quoting MrMixon:
Gah, just when I thought everyone was ready to break into a chorus or two of Kumbaya, we get someone in the blog advocating a further escalation of tensions in an effort to shorten the lives of some complete strangers with whom he/she disagrees.

Ummm... is it too early for a Fresca?

Maybe I just haven't posted enough webcam links...


(Click image for webcam page)

As you can see, the snow level is not yet as low if you go further south in Colorado (this one is in Cuchara). The tops of the ski slopes in this image are around 10,500' and the little bit of a peak you can see in the background is around 12,500'.

Compare that to the Nederland cam I posted earlier:




Or this one near Estes Park:



Both of which are in the northern part of the state.
Who is promoting tensions? I see Grothar provided a definition of Cyberbullying which is what some of the folks on the previous blog were doing.
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12z CMC develops fast and tracks over Jamaica.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15476
...........................GFS at 324 hours yet another pacific storm
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GFS at 240 hours..............
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FORECAST TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW
OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
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Thanks,Dr.Maseters,after reading your blog,sounds like we really don't know what this winter will be like.A lot of contrasting indicators.Guess I'll just flip the coin.
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Thanks Doctor Masters.

I have a question based on part of your comment.

"Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years."

Does that hold any validity for using analogs for other weather related occurrences? Hurricanes and tornado outbreaks for instance?
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I've never been happier for a new blog.
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Gah, just when I thought everyone was ready to break into a chorus or two of Kumbaya, we get someone in the blog advocating a further escalation of tensions in an effort to shorten the lives of some complete strangers with whom he/she disagrees.

Ummm... is it too early for a Fresca?

Maybe I just haven't posted enough webcam links...


(Click image for webcam page)

As you can see, the snow level is not yet as low if you go further south in Colorado (this one is in Cuchara). The tops of the ski slopes in this image are around 10,500' and the little bit of a peak you can see in the background is around 12,500'.

Compare that to the Nederland cam I posted earlier:




Or this one near Estes Park:



Both of which are in the northern part of the state.
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Excerpts from Wiki:

Cyberbullying is the use of the Internet and related technologies to harm other people, in a deliberate, repeated, and hostile manner.[1] As it has become more common in society, particularly among young people, legislation and awareness campaigns have arisen to combat it.

Examples of what constitutes cyberbullying include communications that seek to intimidate, control, manipulate, put down, falsely discredit, or humiliate the recipient. The actions are deliberate, repeated, and hostile behavior intended to harm another. Cyberbullying has been defined by The National Crime Prevention Council: “when the Internet, cell phones or other devices are used to send or post text or images intended to hurt or embarrass another person.[2][3]

A cyberbully may be a person whom the target knows or an online stranger. A cyberbully may be anonymous and may solicit involvement of other people online who do not even know the target.


Cyberbullying involves repeated behavior with intent to harm and repeated nature
Cyberbullying is perpetrated through Harassment, Cyberstalking, Denigration (sending or posting cruel rumors and falsehoods to damage reputation and friendships), Impersonation, Exclusion (intentionally and cruelly excluding someone from an online group)[6]

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27550
Thank you Dr. Masters!
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Thanks Dr. Masters for the wonderful posts! I hope it is cooler this winter in Florida. It felt as if we didn't get winter last year because it was so temperate.

WunderGirl12
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If you are correct,good doctor, all the memories of childhood winters from the previous blog may verify :) Sounds like fun, maybe?
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Thank you Dr. Masters... Usually not much of winter here in south Florida
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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