Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

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Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DrMickey:
The landing page of WXUnderground shows "Tampa Executive, FL set a record low temperature of 14 for Oct 18" Link

Anybody verify this? 14 is a big drop!

Verified false. I'm a few miles east of the airport and its toasty. It was this morning too lol. currently 90 F here
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I'm in your camp, could use a blizzard here in Tampa Bay like 1899.
In the eternal city never snow, but two years a go the Romans saw snow in there street for the first , at the steps of the ancient colliseum...I was there,,,beautiful sight to say least !!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The MJO pulse will be a strong one thru the end of the month.

by the mjo mostly in the 1 section is that bascially the east pac and carribean?
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Michelle may be a good analog for whatever develops in Caribbean? I am talking of track,not about intensity.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While most of us were sleeping last night, a large and destructive tornado reportedly moved through the city of Louise, Mississippi, which is just north of Yazoo City, and produced damage. I've seen anything from it being significant damage to the city being "gone". Hopefully we'll have more details soon with the sun rising.

This tornado was just rated as a low-end EF3.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31565
Quoting lilElla:
Did yesterdays high winds affect the Fern Lake Fire. There is nothing like the Colorado Rockies! :)


It sounds like the Fern Lake fire is under pretty decent control. It's only ~30% contained, but precipitation and cool temperatures over the weekend, a massive firefighting effort, and generally low fuel density near the fire have kept it from growing significantly.

Here's the latest:

"The past few days of strong, gusty winds have caused a slight increase in fire behavior. Recent light precipitation and colder temperatures have helped moderate the drying effects of the wind.

Puffs of smoke were more noticeable and the fire will continue to put up smoke until a heavy snow extinguishes it. Last night, a late night infrared flight mapped the fire at 630 acres."


Full article at the Reporter Herald here.

Link to Inciweb page for the Fern Lake Fire here.

And a positively neato picture of the fire taken by VIP Hahn below (Note, this image is about 8 days old... fire activity has decreased markedly since this was taken):

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well according to the forecast my area may be average and boring.Nooo! I need a 24" snowstorm in the wake of last winter.I miss the feel of snow.If you catch snow fresh while falling from the sky in a cup and eat its delicious(yes I know this is very weird).I'm crossing fingers here.


I used to make snow milkshakes when living in the midwest. Pack a cup/glass with snow, mix in a small dose of sugar (a teaspoon at most), then either vanilla extract or Hershey's Quik depending on personal preference and stir. They tasted pretty good - at least to a teenagers palate. If indoors though you had to eat/drink them quickly.
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We dropped to Moderate - 3" this past weekend made a small dent, only 7" more to go for our area in S. WI



Quoting TomballTXPride:
Unfortunately, not really any improvement at all on this weeks Drought Monitor, even despite the recent rainfall over some of the most stricken areas...



Yesterday's rainfall. Not too shabby. It's a start...



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Did yesterdays high winds affect the Fern Lake Fire. There is nothing like the Colorado Rockies! :)


MrMixon:Maybe I just haven't posted enough webcam links... this one near Estes Park
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While the GFS and ECMWF show a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, it appears to be weak and extremely elongated. This is because the models have a hard time correctly predicting the intensity of a system in the midst of a very intense MJO pulse. When and if a storm does form down there, don't expect it to be as feeble as they are currently depicting.

Good afternoon guys, and thanks, Dr. Masters.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31565
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I too, would like to see a Feb 1899 style snowstorm on the Gulf and into Florida.
Crazy, I know.


I'd hate to see a repeat of the January 2010 fish kill we had due to extended cold weather. It looked as if you could have walked on water behind my house due to the amount of fish floating.
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...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...
...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI BEACH...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AROUND
NOON OVER THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF MAINLY THE BAY SIDE OF SOUTH
BEACH. THE ROADWAYS IN MIAMI BEACH THAT WILL MOST LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THE MOST STREET FLOODING ARE ALONG ALTON ROAD AND WEST
AVENUES BETWEEN 12TH AND 5TH STREETS, AND ALONG PURDY AVENUE AND
20TH STREET. PARTIAL ROAD CLOSURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO
WATER LIKELY BECOMING CURB DEEP IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ALSO, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED LOCALES. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY, WHERE
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
It is rare for there to be snow in Florida. The reason that snow so rarely occurs in this U.S. state is that freezing temperatures in Florida are generally caused by the cold and dry winds of anticyclones. Frost is more common than snow, requiring temperatures of 45°F (7°C) or less at 2 metres (7 ft) above sea level, a cloudless sky, and a relative humidity of 65% or more.[1] In the general case, for snow to occur, the polar jet stream must move southward through Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a stalled cold front across the southern portion of the state curving northeastward to combine freezing air into the frontal clouds.[2]

Much of the known information on snow in Florida prior to 1900 is from weather climatology provided by the Jacksonville National Weather Service; for this reason, information for other locations is sparse.[1] The earliest recorded instance of snow in Florida was a snowstorm that occurred in 1774; being unaccustomed to snow, some residents called it "extraordinary white rain."[1] The first White Christmas in Jacksonville's history resulted from a snowfall that occurred on December 23, 1989.[2] The most recent occurrence of snow in Florida took place on January 9, 2011, when sleet was reported in the counties of Escambia and Santa Rosa.[3]


Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
288 hours, 2 storms in the Pacific..................
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I'm in your camp, could use a blizzard here in Tampa Bay like 1899.
The pollen has been terrible this year and the bugs have been multiplying like crazy thanks to the warm winter and srping/summer.But when that cool air came in September they haven't been around as much.Getting to cold for them a night now.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Watch what you wish for you just might get it, especially with the way our weather is acting up. LOL. My father was stationed here in Key West in 1952 and he told me he had seen some snowflakes. Of course, they didn't stick, but he swore that it indeed snowed here once.
Yeah. No thanks. There's a reason I move to Tampa from Michigan.
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The December 2011 precipitation forecast issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society called for a 75 percent chance of above normal precipitation over parts of the Philippines between January and March. As the months played out, storms brought roughly eight inches more rain than usual for the period. That's about 85 percent more than usual.

Does this mean the forecast was right? What if the storms never materialized and the region received eight inches of rain less than normal? Would the forecast then have been wrong?

In both cases, the answer would be no. That's because there's no such thing as a right or wrong probabilistic forecast. A 75 percent chance of above-normal rain also implies a 25 percent chance of normal or below-normal rain.

However, a forecast's merits (or lack thereof) can be judged using a handful of different metrics. IRI has been verifying its forecasts internally and in academic journals for years. However, last year IRI scientists Tony Barnston and Simon Mason worked with IRI staff members to make those results public.

The end result is a host of scores across five categories displayed using interactive charts and maps. Taken individually or as a whole, the scores given users a better sense of where IRI's forecasts are more skillful and areas where there's room for improvement. That in turn can help decision makers make, well, better decisions about whether to use the forecast and how much trust to put in it.

Read IRI's Spotlight Feature to get the full story on the scores and how they're being used by forecasters and decision makers.


http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/10/18/the-truth -about-verification/
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GFS at 189 hours...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
The MJO pulse will be a strong one thru the end of the month.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I too, would like to see a Feb 1899 style snowstorm on the Gulf and into Florida.
Crazy, I know.
Watch what you wish for you just might get it, especially with the way our weather is acting up. LOL. My father was stationed here in Key West in 1952 and he told me he had seen some snowflakes. Of course, they didn't stick, but he swore that it indeed snowed here once.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
The good times :)

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12z Euro looks quite a bit like 0z did:

Almost similar to the 6z run of the GFS with 2 storms. It makes sense though, a broad area of low pressure almost stretched out like a trough of low pressure, that may take some time to consolidate into one system while little areas of low pressure get ejected outwards.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I'm in your camp, could use a blizzard here in Tampa Bay like 1899.



I too, would like to see a Feb 1899 style snowstorm on the Gulf and into Florida.
Crazy, I know.
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here's the front coming..gonna weaken before it gets to us in central florida.......................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well according to the forecast my area may be average and boring.Nooo! I need a 24" snowstorm in the wake of last winter.I miss the feel of snow.If you catch snow fresh while falling from the sky in a cup and eat its delicious(yes I know this is very weird).I'm crossing fingers here.
Yeah I'm in your camp, could use a blizzard here in Tampa Bay like 1899.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Euro develops like GFS has a pair of systems at 240 hours. And look where the big one ends up.

THAT..would be an interesting storm TW..those folks arent used to a storm like that although they do get some horrific winter storms there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Quoting suzi46:
soooo, after reading all the info above, the bottomline is that we should go out and catch a Woolley Bear Caterpillar!!! LOL...gotta love all the technology we have today..sure makes forecasting a whole lot easier..hahaha!!!


I always check on my geckos and see what they are getting in the way of winter clothes. When I see them packing their suitcases with, "Miami or Bust!" stickers on them, I get nervous. .... Then I remember they are just going to visit Grothar's geckos. .... But maybe for a reason?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

And the 12z CMC looks very similar to these Euro runs, with the exception of a faster time frame:

GFS also had a storm right there..way out in time
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
Well according to the forecast my area may be average and boring.Nooo! I need a 24" snowstorm in the wake of last winter.I miss the feel of snow.If you catch snow fresh while falling from the sky in a cup and eat its delicious(yes I know this is very weird).I'm crossing fingers here.
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Quoting goosegirl1:
It just occured to me- Mr. Mixon was telling us that proper gear is the key to surviving and enjoying winter, while the rest of us were talking about bread bags, spray starch, too many clothes and garbage can lids! Maybe our advice isn't so good after all. But hey, we all survived our childhood, so it can't have been all bad.


That may be easy for you to say, but I don't think I actually survived my childhood. Now, it appears, I am about to start my second childhood. .... Again!
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The landing page of WXUnderground shows "Tampa Executive, FL set a record low temperature of 14 for Oct 18" Link

Anybody verify this? 14 is a big drop!
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC011-097-182200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0399.121018T1856Z-121018T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
256 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 255 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN...POOR
DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6705 1827 6705 1826 6707 1824 6706
1817 6707 1816 6708 1816 6717 1831 6715

$$

JJA
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12z Euro looks quite a bit like 0z did:


And the 12z CMC looks very similar to these Euro runs, with the exception of a faster time frame:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7640
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12z Euro looks quite a bit like 0z did:



MONSOONS
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12z Euro develops like GFS has a pair of systems at 240 hours. And look where the big one ends up.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
12z Euro looks quite a bit like 0z did:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7640
Would be curious to see a blog dedicated to El Nino/La Nino and the causes. That statement that this is the first time in 63 years of observations to see an El Nino "quit" like this is very curious.
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Euro 192 hrs. is showing a rather large system moving towards Jamaica and Cuba.



Also take a look at the wind profile expanding as far north as Central FL.

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Quoting goosegirl1:


Flip a coin! No, seriously, some predictions say the east coast might be in for some snow- might. Or maybe not :) El Nino years generally bring moisture to the east, but as Dr's blog said- with El Nino fizzling out before it really got started, there is above average uncertainty for this winter.
I got heads what does that mean?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

GOES 13 weather satellite returned to service

BY STEPHEN CLARK
SPACEFLIGHT NOW
Posted: October 18, 2012


NOAA restored the GOES 13 weather satellite to full operations Thursday after correcting an anomaly in the craft's sounding instrument, which knocked the critical observatory out of service in September
 
According to an update on NOAA's website, the satellite was inserted back into the two-satellite operational GOES constellation at 1444 GMT (10:44 a.m. EDT) Thursday by controllers at the agency's control center in Suitland, Md.

GOES 13, which is located in geostationary orbit at 75 degrees west longitude, was put in standby mode Sept. 23 after noise appeared in imaging and atmospheric sounding data from the satellite.

A backup satellite named GOES 14 took over operational duties covering the U.S. East Coast and the Atlantic Ocean while engineers from NOAA, Boeing Co. and ITT Exelis investigated the problem.

According to NOAA, the trouble was caused by a vibration from aging lubricant in the sounder instrument, and engineers devised an "outgas" procedure to improve the data.

"For GOES 13 and its sister satellites, we now have an early detection process that will enable us to take early action to prevent a similar occurrence in the future," said John Leslie, a NOAA spokesperson.

Leslie said the anomaly in the sounder filter wheel will have no lifetime effect on the instrument. GOES 13 launched in May 2006 and is designed for a 10-year life.
...

"The engineers have worked hard to understand and correct the problem, and now data from both the imager and sounder will flow shortly to our key user, NOAA's National Weather Service," said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator of NOAA's satellite and information service, before GOES 13's transition back into operations.


Great news that 13 is back online. I guess the age old adage is indeed true that all one needs in their toolbox is duct tape and WD-40 :)
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Quoting AztecCe:
Afternoon everybody Nice to see the blog topic switch to winter. Can anyone who knows tell me if E. North Carolina is going to have another above average winter(temps)or will it be an average year?


Flip a coin! No, seriously, some predictions say the east coast might be in for some snow- might. Or maybe not :) El Nino years generally bring moisture to the east, but as Dr's blog said- with El Nino fizzling out before it really got started, there is above average uncertainty for this winter.
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Euro 120 hrs.

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Nice blog, liked that one much, must have been working on it all mornin' LOL. Shame too much at play to know if we're going to be extra cold and having big snow again in Wales and N Eu. Snow and extra cold is usually better than 'mild' and wet. Always feels so much colder to me when it's like 40-50 and damp, than when it's snowing or at least dry and below freezing (with the exception of like, central N America, -20 is freaking cold no matter how you look at it LOL). My body just doesn't like humidity I think though. As for other end, 70 and humid I'm roasting! LOL
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Quoting WXMichael:


My favorite part was how quiet it was after a heavy snow. (in the hills that are called the appalachian mountains behind our house) Even more calming was hearing large fluffy flakes pittering all around in the tree branches.


There is no peace like the peace of an Appalachian snow storm. Even if I don't really like winter (guilty) I can't bring myself to leave these ancient hills, because of the seasons- the bird-noisy riot of spring, the haze and laze of deep summer, the glorious pop of fall colors, and the deep quiet of a snowstorm. We plan on moving next year, should we able to sell our current home, but we are only moving 5 miles away and deeper into the woods :) I think I need to go take pictures, fall color is peaking.
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And speaking of wind, this is a prime time of year for grass fires on the plains. Keep those cigarette butts where they belong folks:

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
214 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC001-067-081-083-093-121-125-131-153-182115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0398.121018T1814Z-121018T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-
YAUCO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
214 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...LARES...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...
YAUCO...SAN SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS AND LAS MARIAS

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 212 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN...POOR
DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1818 6701 1834 6703 1830 6683 1807 6682
1814 6712

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14073
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL
BE NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING MAKES EVERY
THUNDERSTORM A POTENTIAL KILLER. CEASE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
IMMEDIATELY AND MOVE INDOORS IF THUNDER IS HEARD.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE EASTERLY SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL
DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
AFTER 2:00 PM DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS. RIP CURRENTS CAN BE LIFE-
THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL OUT OF THE PULL OF THE
CURRENT...AND THEN SWIM BACK TO SHORE. CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH
PATROL BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER AND DO NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INLAND LAKES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL TO LAKE KISSIMMEE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
here i am...on the road again...there I am...up on the stage..........(hit that sax dude)....ah yeah
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37101
#38 - That is excellent news!

Three cheers for GOES-13 (and the capable engineers and scientists who brought her back into service)!!



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.