Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

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Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
♥ the view from GOES-13. So nice to see it operational as GOES-EAST again.

Impressive size storm there...



I've been getting rain showers and wind from this system. It has pretty much helped end any drought in my area, I wish I could send it somewhere else for areas that need it more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We've also got new invest 95B out there (the tropics are never as quiet as you think):



It's future is highly uncertain. It'll end up in the Arabian Sea in a couple days but once there it could do anything from dissipate (as the 18z GFS suggested) or become a hurricane (as the 12z GFS hinted at).


And we will have soon 99L in SW Caribbean.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TS Prapiroon:



TS Maria:

Maria at this moment reminds me to Jose.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
189. Skyepony (Mod)
♥ the view from GOES-13. So nice to see it operational as GOES-EAST again.

Impressive size storm there...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We've also got new invest 95B out there (the tropics are never as quiet as you think):



It's future is highly uncertain. It'll end up in the Arabian Sea in a couple days but once there it could do anything from dissipate (as the 18z GFS suggested) or become a hurricane (as the 12z GFS hinted at).

Didn't they have a very strong cyclone there either last year or the year before. I remember reading it somewhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalStormIsaac:

Could make it into the Western Pacific? needs to build on the 10% it's currently at.



Also looks like it's embedded in the ITCZ so it will need to break from it also

The 18z GFS hangs on to it through about 192 hours but it doesn't move particularly fast. It's very unlikely it'll make it to the real West Pac, but it may get close to the edge.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unless I'm mistaken, the last big snowstorm for Florida was in 1977. That's brutal.

You have been mistaken before, so have I though, but I think you are right with this.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I felt like I was in Florida last winter... really hoping this one turns out different.

I think/hope it will be different. My sanity depends on it being different, jk.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, he was banned about 10 minutes ago for posting an off-topic-ish video that had language in it...even though he warned it had language in it.

More questionable bans by admins.

Gee it must of been quick. I wonder if they were looking for a reason for a ban. What was the video of. There is a video of a guy jumping onto a frozen backyard pool on the news.com.au site. Maybe he posted that??? it was a very painful sound his body made when it hit the ice, ouch!!!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We've also got new invest 95B out there (the tropics are never as quiet as you think):



It's future is highly uncertain. It'll end up in the Arabian Sea in a couple days but once there it could do anything from dissipate (as the 18z GFS suggested) or become a hurricane (as the 12z GFS hinted at).
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's possible 92C ends up developing. The models don't do a ton with it but they don't dissipate it for a while either so we may see something in the next week or so. I'd say 30% chance it ever develops.

Could make it into the Western Pacific? needs to build on the 10% it's currently at.



Also looks like it's embedded in the ITCZ so it will need to break from it also
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's possible 92C ends up developing. The models don't do a ton with it but they don't dissipate it for a while either so we may see something in the next week or so. I'd say 30% chance it ever develops.

I wouldn't mind seeing something develop over there, I have seen something there in a while. Wow, what a night with the Tigers.
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Glad that GOES-13 is back up. Hopefully there will be no more issues with it for a while.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32814
I was asking before what happened to AussieStorm.

He's been banned. Look at his blog page

What the heck happened in here????


My local weather webcam. It's beautiful here today.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I hope a storm forms there. They're always so destitute.

It's possible 92C ends up developing. The models don't do a ton with it but they don't dissipate it for a while either so we may see something in the next week or so. I'd say 30% chance it ever develops.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well there was uh... I'm happy I'm in Michigan then.


Unless I'm mistaken, the last big snowstorm for Florida was in 1977. That's brutal.
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I felt like I was in Florida last winter... really hoping this one turns out different.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Has anyone else noticed this?

BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210181156
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

1. A surface trough about 900 miles south of Kauai is moving west slowly. Thunderstorms are flaring up along the trough but there is no sign of a circulation. There is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.



I hope a storm forms there. They're always so destitute.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah but I see it more than he does. :P

We had a record snowstorm in 2008, followed by three consecutive snow events in 2009. How many did Florida have? ;)

Well there was uh... I'm happy I'm in Michigan then.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

You very rarely see snow so... ;)


Yeah but I see it more than he does. :P

We had a record snowstorm in 2008, followed by three consecutive snow events in 2009. How many did Florida have? ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has anyone else noticed this?

BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210181156
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

1. A surface trough about 900 miles south of Kauai is moving west slowly. Thunderstorms are flaring up along the trough but there is no sign of a circulation. There is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
Quoting KoritheMan:


And you live in Florida. You'll never see it. :)

You very rarely see snow so... ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! ACT QUICKLY. GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING... AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

IF DRIVING AND CAN REACH A STURDY BUILDING SAFELY... DO SO. IF THERE IS NO STURDY BUILDING NEARBY AND YOU CAN SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO... DO SO. OTHERWISE... IF YOU SEE FLYING DEBRIS... PARK YOUR VEHICLE. CLOSE WINDOWS... LEAVE SEATBELTS ON... GET LOWER THAN THE DASHBOARD... AND COVER YOUR HEAD... PREFERABLY WITH BLANKETS OR PILLOWS. IF THERE IS NO DEBRIS... LEAVE THE VEHICLE AND GO INTO A DITCH OR LOW SPOT... BUT WATCH FOR RISING WATERS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS... WINDS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER... HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER... AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&
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TS Prapiroon:



TS Maria:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I haven't seen snow since March 2007 when I went up to Michigan.


And you live in Florida. You'll never see it. :)
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

TXC061-261-489-190000-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/
CAMERON-WILLACY-KENEDY-
635 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN KENEDY...WILLACY AND NORTHERN CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 621 PM CDT...AN AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED WINDS OF 55 MPH 2
MILES EAST OF SEBASTIAN ON FM 2629.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS NOW 10 MILES NORTH OF HARLINGEN VALLEY AIRPORT...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PORFIRIO.
SANTA MONICA.
ARROYO CITY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
EXCESSIVE AND DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY...AN INTERIOR ROOM IN THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2632 9734 2631 9735 2627 9779 2660 9781
2668 9751 2644 9739 2643 9739 2638 9737
2637 9738 2637 9736 2631 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 344DEG 8KT 2638 9763

$$

TOMASELLI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I haven't seen snow since March 2007 when I went up to Michigan.

Where in Michigan?

Also the Tigers are the AL champions, off to the World Series! Lets go Tigers!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Off Topic=Tigers go to World Series.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
Folks in texas, this is a Bad storm, warning after warning on this one....................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
629 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

TXC061-215-489-190000-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-121019T0000Z/
HIDALGO-CAMERON-WILLACY-
629 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILLACY...NORTHWESTERN CAMERON AND EASTERN HIDALGO
COUNTIES...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
EDCOUCH.
LA VILLA.
LAGUNA SECA.
ZAPATA RANCH.
TIERRA BONITA.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
EXCESSIVE AND DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY...AN INTERIOR ROOM IN THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2620 9779 2621 9811 2648 9811 2649 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 314DEG 8KT 2633 9792
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I haven't seen snow since March 2007 when I went up to Michigan.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Levi, one of our very helpful bloggers here is in Alaska, studying to become a meteorologist and has a website:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

I would expect he could give you some insight on what to expect.

good luck.

I have seen Levi on here before,but didn't realize he is here in Alaska :)

Thank you for the link!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dangerous storm heading for Brownsville:

AT 550 PM CDT...A GAME WARDEN REPORTED A LARGE FUNNEL POSSIBLY TOUCHING
THE GROUND AT THE INTERSECTION OF FM 498 AND FM 1420.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

TXC061-489-182345-
/O.CON.KBRO.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-121018T2345Z/
CAMERON-WILLACY-
626 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
WILLACY AND NORTHERN CAMERON COUNTIES...

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SANTA MONICA.
ARROYO CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! ACT QUICKLY. GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

IF DRIVING AND CAN REACH A STURDY BUILDING SAFELY...DO SO. IF THERE
IS NO STURDY BUILDING NEARBY AND YOU CAN SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE
TORNADO...DO SO. OTHERWISE...IF YOU SEE FLYING DEBRIS...PARK YOUR
VEHICLE. CLOSE WINDOWS...LEAVE SEATBELTS ON...GET LOWER THAN THE
DASHBOARD...AND COVER YOUR HEAD...PREFERABLY WITH BLANKETS OR
PILLOWS. IF THERE IS NO DEBRIS...LEAVE THE VEHICLE AND GO INTO A
DITCH OR LOW SPOT...BUT WATCH FOR RISING WATERS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2629 9734 2624 9779 2654 9781 2660 9752
2660 9747 2644 9740 2645 9740 2641 9738
2638 9737 2637 9738 2636 9736 2632 9734
2632 9735 2631 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 292DEG 10KT 2641 9749

$$

TOMASELLI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nishinigami:
Dr. Masters,

I am very interested in the winter forecast for Alaska. I have lived in Valdez for a year now and last winter was very extreme. All of the information in your post was for the lower 48 states. How might these forecasts (el enino) affect Alaska, in particular, south central Alaska?

Thank you for any information.

Kelley


Levi, one of our very helpful bloggers here is in Alaska, studying to become a meteorologist and has a website:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

I would expect he could give you some insight on what to expect.

good luck.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nishinigami:


We did, 438" of snow, I believe. It was amazing and frightening at the same time :) After having to replace our roof this summer from the damage of that excessive snow load, I am most interested in what is to come. This is our house under 300" of snow(right before we started shoveling off the roof UP into the yard)

Dang, that's a lot of snow and more than I've ever seen by a long shot.The most I've seen/been through is a foot to a foot and a half.


It is pretty likely that we get a system from the Caribbean. All models have been showing something from the Caribbean. It is still difficult to get a handle on where it would go and how strong.
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dont we have brownsville posters here?..this is dangerous...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC061-489-190015-
/O.NEW.KBRO.SV.W.0095.121018T2316Z-121019T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
616 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
SOUTHERN WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING 60 MPH WINDS...5 MILES NORTH OF HARLINGEN VALLEY
AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SANTA MONICA.
COMBES.
PALM VALLEY.
HARLINGEN VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
HARLINGEN.
SAN BENITO.
RIO HONDO.
PRIMERA.
LOS FRESNOS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY...AN INTERIOR ROOM IN THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&

LAT...LON 2606 9744 2607 9778 2633 9780 2637 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 326DEG 7KT 2630 9768

$$

TOMASELLI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
112 WUUS54 KBRO 182316 SVRBRO TXC061-489-190015- /O.NEW.KBRO.SV.W.0095.121018T2316Z-121019T0015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 616 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHERN WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING 60 MPH WINDS...5 MILES NORTH OF HARLINGEN VALLEY AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SANTA MONICA. COMBES. PALM VALLEY. HARLINGEN VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. HARLINGEN. SAN BENITO. RIO HONDO. PRIMERA. LOS FRESNOS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY...AN INTERIOR ROOM IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS. PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.
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Quoting nishinigami:


We did, 438" of snow, I believe. It was amazing and frightening at the same time :) After having to replace our roof this summer from the damage of that excessive snow load, I am most interested in what is to come. This is our house under 300" of snow(right before we started shoveling off the roof UP into the yard)


OMG, that's more than 36 FEET of snow... 25 feet on the roof... not for Marty...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

TXC061-489-182345-
/O.CON.KBRO.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-121018T2345Z/
CAMERON-WILLACY-
555 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
WILLACY AND NORTHERN CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 550 PM CDT...A GAME WARDEN REPORTED A LARGE FUNNEL POSSIBLY TOUCHING
THE GROUND AT THE INTERSECTION OF FM 498 AND FM 1420.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE TORNADO WAS NOW
12 MILES EAST OF RAYMONDVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WILLAMAR.
SANTA MONICA.
ARROYO CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! ACT QUICKLY. GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2629 9734 2624 9779 2654 9781 2660 9752
2660 9747 2644 9740 2645 9740 2641 9738
2638 9737 2637 9738 2636 9736 2632 9734
2632 9735 2631 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 292DEG 10KT 2644 9758

$$

TOMASELLI
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Quoting nishinigami:


We did, 438" of snow, I believe. It was amazing and frightening at the same time :) After having to replace our roof this summer from the damage of that excessive snow load, I am most interested in what is to come. This is our house under 300" of snow(right before we started shoveling off the roof UP into the yard)

oh wow, we had 7" of snow here this time last Friday but if we ever got that amount, we'll be homeless. No houses here in the Blue Mountains are built for that amount.


Btw, anyone seen AussieStorm. I went back in this blog and see no comment from him. I will check the last blog now.
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FOLKS IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS..PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR LOCAL WARNINGS..STAY SAFE OUT THERE..STAY SAFE OUT THERE..............GRR RED WARNINGS DIDNT COME THRU..BROWNSVILLE A BAD STORM IS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS YOU
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Don't know if anyone's mentioned this.

I-35 near the OK/KS border has been closed for awhile due to a 20-30 35 car pile up that happened about 1 p.m. today.

There is poor visibility in the area due to a windstorm/dust storm. Heard about this on the radio in my car a while ago. TV news is also reporting it. Haven't heard much about injuries but apparently there are some. TV reporter says it's due to "60 mph winds and blowing dirt." Fields had recently been plowed for winter wheat. Winds are still in the 30-40 mph range up that way, according to (OKC) Channel 9 meteorolgist, Gary England. (Trivia: He just celebrated 40 years at channel 9!)






Strong winds in the Plains today have caused travel disruptions from the Dakotas to Oklahoma. This picture shows several trucks blown over on Interstate 90 near Belvidere, SD. This is just one of several reports of traffic accidents in the region caused by strong winds and/or blowing dust.

There are 4 truck in a row blown over here.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Wow...that tornado is tracking southward...not used to that...
yeah a dangerous one
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I am not Dr. Masters and I am not here to forecast. I spent many winters in that part of the world.

Thing is, Valdez on up through Thompson Pass is a microclimate that receives 'way more snowfall than much of southcentral. You live in Alaska's "Little Switzerland," an area sometimes also referred to as "the Alaskan Alps." Folks I know in Anchorage say this past winter reminded them of winters in the 1970s. With all that snow in Anchorage last winter, yours in Valdez must have been a humdinger.


We did, 438" of snow, I believe. It was amazing and frightening at the same time :) After having to replace our roof this summer from the damage of that excessive snow load, I am most interested in what is to come. This is our house under 300" of snow(right before we started shoveling off the roof UP into the yard)
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Quoting LargoFl:

Wow...that tornado is tracking southward...not used to that...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
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GOES-13 is back!
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

TXC061-489-182345-
/O.CON.KBRO.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-121018T2345Z/
CAMERON-WILLACY-
555 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
WILLACY AND NORTHERN CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 550 PM CDT...A GAME WARDEN REPORTED A LARGE FUNNEL POSSIBLY TOUCHING
THE GROUND AT THE INTERSECTION OF FM 498 AND FM 1420.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE TORNADO WAS NOW
12 MILES EAST OF RAYMONDVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WILLAMAR.
SANTA MONICA.
ARROYO CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! ACT QUICKLY. GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2629 9734 2624 9779 2654 9781 2660 9752
2660 9747 2644 9740 2645 9740 2641 9738
2638 9737 2637 9738 2636 9736 2632 9734
2632 9735 2631 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 292DEG 10KT 2644 9758

$$

TOMASELLI
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truth is..this is about all we get for winter..........
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I had to go for a second guys, sorry.

Back just in time to cover a tornado warning in South Texas. The public reported a "large funnel cloud" at 6:50 pm EDT, possibly touching the ground.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32814

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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