Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

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Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Surprised that you could find the typo.

Evening, everyone. :-)

Evening MSWX.

Quoting KoritheMan:


At this point I don't care if I make the deadline or not. As long as it's before May 15, 2013.

And when we get to May 14th, 2013 and you still aren't finished then what?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Where-are-you?????????? high alps from last winter?? btw it must snow like storm this winter or i hate to think what would happen....


I am in Valdez, AK, snow capital of the USA :) With the constant systems we were getting last month, record 26.15" of rain in September Link


I was getting nervous if that pattern was going to hold once the temps dropped below freezing. Fortunately, we have had a break in the clouds. Still curious though how the predicted forecast will affect us here in Alaska.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Surprised that you could find the typo.

Evening, everyone. :-)

It's nighttime here, dummy.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Temperture.


Surprised that you could find the typo.

Evening, everyone. :-)
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Quoting nishinigami:


We did, 438" of snow, I believe. It was amazing and frightening at the same time :) After having to replace our roof this summer from the damage of that excessive snow load, I am most interested in what is to come. This is our house under 300" of snow(right before we started shoveling off the roof UP into the yard)
Thanks for posting the photo! Pretty amazing. With 443" your winter of 2011-12 brought nearly twice as much snow as average for Valdez. As you may already know, NOAA'S Western Regional Climate Center in Las Vegas provides a lot of good data for the western U.S. That link is to the Alaska climate summaries page. From there you can back track to the WRCC main page.

WRCC says

Valdez:
Average snowfall = 223"
Average snow depth = 23"

For comparison's sake,

Anchorage, Park Strip, downtown:
Average snowfall = 58.3"
Average snow depth = 4"

Hope you'll drop back during the winter and let the world know how your snowfall's going - here or in your own wublog and photos.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, you mean the time you could be using to write your TCRs. ;)

No, instead, you want us to have to listen to you whine for weeks about how you're quickly approaching your deadline and won't make it in time.


At this point I don't care if I make the deadline or not. As long as it's before May 15, 2013.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, you mean the time you could be using to write your TCRs. ;)

No, instead, you want us to have to listen to you whine for weeks about how you're quickly approaching your deadline and won't make it in time.

Well there is your case where you just lose motivation altogether.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting KoritheMan:


I never really understood the whole "blog when the tropics are quiet" mentality. The only time I mention long-range development in my blog is if I am already talking about systems that are already active.

I'm not going to blog again until there is a definitive area of interest. As in, in the synoptic picture, not just the models. I plan to use this time to relax for a change.

Oh, you mean the time you could be using to write your TCRs. ;)

No, instead, you want us to have to listen to you whine for weeks about how you're quickly approaching your deadline and won't make it in time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Quoting Chucktown:
Can you find the blatant typo?


There spell check wasn't working. LOL
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I never really understood the whole "blog when the tropics are quiet" mentality. The only time I mention long-range development in my blog is if I am already talking about systems that are already active.

I'm not going to blog again until there is a definitive area of interest. As in, in the synoptic picture, not just the models. I plan to use this time to relax for a change.

My independent study says otherwise though...
It is the writing portion and I need to do it every 1-2 days unless there is absolutely nothing.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting wxchaser97:

The GGEM has a TS in the SW Caribbean at 120hrs.


I am currently working on a blog about this possible development.


I never really understood the whole "blog when the tropics are quiet" mentality. The only time I mention long-range development in my blog is if I am already talking about systems that are already active.

I'm not going to blog again until there is a definitive area of interest. As in, in the synoptic picture, not just the models. I plan to use this time to relax for a change.
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Quoting Chucktown:
Can you find the blatant typo?


Temperture.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Quoting Chucktown:
Can you find the blatant typo?


Yes,Temperture should be Temperature. I was reading that and it didn't make much sense.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The 12z UKMET also wants to develop the system in 5 days.




The GGEM has a TS in the SW Caribbean at 120hrs.


I am currently working on a blog about this possible development shown by the models.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Can you find the blatant typo?

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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Oh yes, Bristol is quite far south from me. Though, the south of England often gets more snow cause they get stuck in the weather from continental Europe...though usually farther east than Bristol. I used to live just north on the coast from Liverpool before moving to Wales though. WOuld be closer if they were more into bridges here...but unless in a full on city center area, have to go around the estruaries and bays LOL From an American point of view I think....they could have so much better economic movement if there were better links LOL


Sounds like Sydney.

I found a no swearing version of the video i got 1hr banned for. What not to do when your pool is frozen with ice. A nice way to break a leg, hip, Coccyx. Please remember this in the upcoming USA/Canada/UK/European winter.



That's going to leave a bruise. Ouch!!!!
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226. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER MARIA (T1222)
9:00 AM JST October 19 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Far East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Maria (1006 hPa) located at 31.0N 158.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Great photo's. My Aunt lives just north of Bristol, a wee town called Thornbury but your closer to Liverpool, right?


Oh yes, Bristol is quite far south from me. Though, the south of England often gets more snow cause they get stuck in the weather from continental Europe...though usually farther east than Bristol. I used to live just north on the coast from Liverpool before moving to Wales though. WOuld be closer if they were more into bridges here...but unless in a full on city center area, have to go around the estruaries and bays LOL From an American point of view I think....they could have so much better economic movement if there were better links LOL
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


possible outcome of that Bay of Bengal invest


They changed floater from 95B to 95A as it passed to the Arabian Sea.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
223. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


possible outcome of that Bay of Bengal invest
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The 12z UKMET also wants to develop the system in 5 days.



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221. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #113
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 19 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (994 hPa) located at 32.5N 142.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 30 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in southern quadrant
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 33.8N 154.2E - Extratropical Cyclone in Sea East Of Japan
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Quoting TropicalStormIsaac:

oh ok, but dr masters did make a dud call on Patty, so did the NHC. I never saw you call anyone a liar. Shame on them for accusing you of doing that. Go out and enjoy this beautiful day, I'm off to the city, want to join me for a ice cold beer while we sit in the spring sun. WU-mail me if your interested.

Have a great day all, I'll be back later tonight, maybe with some photo's to share.


As I saw Neo state before...it's really doubtful Dr Masters is much fussed by any critism in this blog. No one likes things directed at them surely, but I don't think they have banned someone for not agreeing with the doc or even downright saying he was a liar (if was the case). He's a public professional with a public blog. I agree, it may be a bit rude to slag him off on his own blog, but it doesn't say anywhere that that's out of bounds. I think he knows he opens himself up to scrutiny by having this, I think he'd rather have the freedom of opinion-even if against himself, and I think he's both a big enough man to take any comment and above what us mere bloggers might say! Not saying he should be attacked, but I've seen no sign that he is fussed and would rather people spoke freely. I have my personal beliefs, and sometimes thosenwith opposing beliefs do annoy me..but I believe we should be allowed out own beliefs, so try to amicable and not get in tif's with anyone, as they believe what they do for whatever reason.

Anyway, hope if something does indeed form in W Carb, it only brings rains! And glad Anais shouldn't harm poor ol' Madagascar too bad!
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Quoting LargoFl:
What is Winter like in Florida?.............Nahhhh...

looks soooo good after last "winter"'s DUD!!
am i getting annoying? as bad as caribboy's "RAIN"
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:
While some are on the snow topic..here in North Wales, you get some every year on the peaks, but the last few years, it's gone coastal, and totally amazing! I wouldn't complain to it every year TBH...probablt cause I'm from the So. Calif desert! haha)

This was spring this year..we didn't have any snow all winter (a few HUGE hail storms that blanketed all though) this was my back patio in the April, 2 day snowstorm..I was SO excited! My table looked like a mushroom LOL I awoke the next morning at sunrise (I work late shifts, so that was a feat for me LOL) and it was sunny and full of snow, so made myself go out on the surrounding farmland for some snowy photos, as been wanting some all winter...just took til spring!


and the winter before in 201o when I was living on Conwy town center in the castle walls...locals said they hadn't seen snow like this in more than 20 years


Had 3 big snow spells that year, and this was at sea level as Conwy is on the estruary. Was MAD but SO awesome and beautiful. I couldn't move my car for 3 weeks...which was slightly annoying as had just gotten my British licence! haha


Great photo's. My Aunt lives just north of Bristol, a wee town called Thornbury but your closer to Liverpool, right?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
And last frame. North it goes:


i smell snow for mmeeeeeee!!
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Quoting nishinigami:


We did, 438" of snow, I believe. It was amazing and frightening at the same time :) After having to replace our roof this summer from the damage of that excessive snow load, I am most interested in what is to come. This is our house under 300" of snow(right before we started shoveling off the roof UP into the yard)

Where-are-you?????????? high alps from last winter?? btw it must snow like storm this winter or i hate to think what would happen....
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While some are on the snow topic..here in North Wales, you get some every year on the peaks, but the last few years, it's gone coastal, and totally amazing! I wouldn't complain to it every year TBH...probablt cause I'm from the So. Calif desert! haha)

This was spring this year..we didn't have any snow all winter (a few HUGE hail storms that blanketed all though) this was my back patio in the April, 2 day snowstorm..I was SO excited! My table looked like a mushroom LOL I awoke the next morning at sunrise (I work late shifts, so that was a feat for me LOL) and it was sunny and full of snow, so made myself go out on the surrounding farmland for some snowy photos, as been wanting some all winter...just took til spring!


and the winter before in 201o when I was living on Conwy town center in the castle walls...locals said they hadn't seen snow like this in more than 20 years


Had 3 big snow spells that year, and this was at sea level as Conwy is on the estruary. Was MAD but SO awesome and beautiful. I couldn't move my car for 3 weeks...which was slightly annoying as had just gotten my British licence! haha
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Quoting wxchaser97:
The tornado threat has ceased for the moment in S TX and Brownsville looks to be in the clear for now.

Nasty hooks! Where are the warnings??
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The 1970 Bhola cyclone was a devastating tropical cyclone that struck Bangladesh and India's West Bengal on November 12, 1970. It was the deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded, and one of the deadliest natural disasters in modern times. Up to 500,000 people lost their lives in the storm, primarily as a result of the storm surge that flooded much of the low-lying islands of the Ganges Delta. This cyclone was the sixth cyclonic storm of the 1970 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, and also the season's strongest, reaching a strength equivalent to a strong Category 3 hurricane.

Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in History
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Ex-Anais to hit Madagascar today.
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There was this bad boy also:



138,366 people were killed.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not at peak intensity but close enough..


Gonu was an early June storm.
2010 Cat 4 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet. I remember also, not as bad but still pretty wild.

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Quoting Skyepony:
♥ the view from GOES-13. So nice to see it operational as GOES-EAST again.

Impressive size storm there...





nice clear image

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54418
Incidentally the long range GFS has in fact been consistently showing a storm forming in the Bay of Bengal in about 10 days and strengthening... we'l have to see what happens because it really doesn't take much to create a huge disaster in that part of the world, unfortunately.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7838
Quoting AussieStorm:


***Lurk mode off***
FYI I did that cause I was being criticized for criticizing Dr Masters for making a "dud" forecast on Patty. I was also accused of calling Dr Masters a liar, which I would never ever do. I think it's best I stop commenting on Dr Masters blog cause certain people here think it's not nice to criticize or freedom to have an opinion/forecast.

*** Lurk Mode on**

oh ok, but dr masters did make a dud call on Patty, so did the NHC. I never saw you call anyone a liar. Shame on them for accusing you of doing that. Go out and enjoy this beautiful day, I'm off to the city, want to join me for a ice cold beer while we sit in the spring sun. WU-mail me if your interested.

Have a great day all, I'll be back later tonight, maybe with some photo's to share.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The only one I remember is this:



I had just registered for this site before that one. 'Twas one hell of a storm, guys.

They don't get many out in the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal but the ones they do can be quite ferocious. This one proved to be one of the most catastrophic natural disasters of all time:



The 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7838
Quoting KoritheMan:


The only one I remember is this:



I had just registered for this site before that one. 'Twas one hell of a storm, guys.

Not at peak intensity but close enough..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Never mind.. :)
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Toward the US/MX border, there was a tornado threat earlier but that is luckily gone.

If it was moving toward the GOM could it produce a few water spouts. Glad the tornado threat is gone, just heavy rain and hail now I guess.
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Quoting TropicalStormIsaac:

Didn't they have a very strong cyclone there either last year or the year before. I remember reading it somewhere.


The only one I remember is this:



I had just registered for this site before that one. 'Twas one hell of a storm, guys.
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201. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting wxchaser97:

I've been getting rain showers and wind from this system. It has pretty much helped end any drought in my area, I wish I could send it somewhere else for areas that need it more.


Take the rain..the breadbasket needs it:)

Fresh Cloudsat of that, surprised how shallow it is.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38198
Quoting TropicalStormIsaac:
I just checked the previous blog and found this that other people have quoted, couldn't find the original though. Can anyone tell me why Aussie decided to do this?




I'm off into the city soon, about 70min train ride. This is what the famous Sydney Harbour looks like today. One word..... Beautiful.


Link


***Lurk mode off***
FYI I did that cause I was being criticized for criticizing Dr Masters for making a "dud" forecast on Patty. I was also accused of calling Dr Masters a liar, which I would never ever do. I think it's best I stop commenting on Dr Masters blog cause certain people here think it's not nice to criticize or freedom to have an opinion/forecast.

*** Lurk Mode on**
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Quoting TropicalStormIsaac:

Is that moving towards the USA/Mex boarder or the GOM?

Toward the US/MX border, there was a tornado threat earlier but that is luckily gone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting wxchaser97:
The tornado threat has ceased for the moment in S TX and Brownsville looks to be in the clear for now.

Is that moving towards the USA/Mex boarder or the GOM?
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The tornado threat has ceased for the moment in S TX and Brownsville looks to be in the clear for now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And we will have soon 99L in SW Caribbean.


Which season had the most invests? Any idea??
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I just checked the previous blog and found this that other people have quoted, couldn't find the original though. Can anyone tell me why Aussie decided to do this?

Quoting AussieStorm:

In fact,,,, I'll make it easy on everyone.... I'll just say goodbye.

I hope everyone here "enjoys" a blog that wont allow criticism or freedom to have an opinion.

Goodbye and good luck in years to come, Stay safe and stay well.
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Initiate permanent lurk mode.......
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Lurk mode activated



I'm off into the city soon, about 70min train ride. This is what the famous Sydney Harbour looks like today. One word..... Beautiful.


Link
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Quoting allancalderini:
Maria at this moment reminds me to Jose.

Yeah, they've both seen better days and there's a decent chance they'll both be declared post tropical in their next advisories. They're all that's left for active cyclones right now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7838
Just an observation about what the models show in the tracks of Caribbean scenarios. It appears that the northeast shift in vorticity resulted in formation north of hispaniola. That in turn made it more suseptible to the weakness to its northeast. Several of the GFS runs place genesis futher west (80-81W) which might insulate it from the weakness. Sometimes it is perplexing to see the difference 6 or 12 hours makes in a model solution:)
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
Quoting Skyepony:
♥ the view from GOES-13. So nice to see it operational as GOES-EAST again.

Impressive size storm there...



I've been getting rain showers and wind from this system. It has pretty much helped end any drought in my area, I wish I could send it somewhere else for areas that need it more.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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